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with odds on shots. Anyone got any stats for last year or so? I'd imagine you could make money by laying all of them blind. The stable might well top the table for beaten odds on shots. How unlucky can you get?
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he is even more unlucky with drifters they always seem to run bad.
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It all seems so odd. I just can't understand it. Has Fitzgerald still got a tipping line by the way?
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i would say w mullins and j gosden would be close to the top for odds on shots beaten
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i would say w mullins and j gosden would be close to the top for odds on shots beaten
Maybe but they are stables who run a hell of a lot of horses so percentage wise I doubt it. Henderson often goes days without a runner. Must be very frustrating for his owners. He pretty much threw in the towel for the trainers' championship a month or more ago when he said he wouldn't be engaging a serious jockey this year. |
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kipling ... do you think he lays them then ?
Stick to making cakes my son |
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He was actually in profit up until today for odds on shots in 2015. What sort of a sample size made you so sure he was one of the worst?
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kipling ... do you think he lays them then ?
Stick to making cakes my son What a preposterous suggestion! Funny how some people associate Kipling with cake making rather than our national poet. A cultural thing I guess. |
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OK PJAY. I'd better do some homework because that doesn't seem right to me. Just being lazy and was hoping someone else had done the research. I've always been a great fan of the Henderson stable especially in the great Dunwoody years when he was regularly champion trainer. Then Fitzgerald arrived and the stable went downhill. It picked up the year Fitzgerald left but is in decline again now.
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Great reply Kipling.
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Re lumpon!
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 kiplingrev poet |
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I never back odds on Pjay. It's always difficult to determine if Henderson is in form or not. Things change from day to day and back again in that stable. Sps have nothing to do with it. I've been backing horses for over 50 years so I'm not a novice.
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so let's just get this straight
kipling the poet also made cakes , a mary berry of his era  |
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If his horses don't deserve to go off at odds on they won't go off at odds on kipling.
This year he has had more odds on winners than Nicholls. A higher successful strike rate than most and up to today, he was in profit. It doesn't matter if he's 'in form' or not. |
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pjay
its a matter of opinion if a horse deserves to be odds on or not ,its not factual regardless of which stable. |
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Though I've belted you and flayed you,
By the livin' Gawd that made you, You bake better cakes than I do, Gunga Din! |
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Chemical Nicky.
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Competent pilots would help
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funny enough paris i have just had roo on he says the same about the pilots.
newbury any of the 3 days ? |
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Foxy - all. You?
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all 3 paris travelling down wednesday,perhaps have a pint on the friday ?
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Alas not staying overnight or I'd love to.
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henderson before todays update was showing a 1.09 profit at betfair sp on industry odds on favs 36 wins from 54 selections this calendar year
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ask greg gory he is the stat king !
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kipling did u get rodgered
 rodger kipling |
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UK and Ireland odds on runners over jumps since 31st Oct 2014, in order of profit %
Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/(Loss) Profit % CharlieLongsdon 11 9 81.8% 3.10 28.2% Phillip Hobbs 30 19 63.3% 0.65 2.2% Paul Nicholls 63 41 65.1% (0.11) (0.2)% Dan Skelton 23 14 60.9% (0.44) (1.9)% John Ferguson 53 35 66.0% (2.56) (4.8)% David Pipe 31 19 61.3% (1.55) (5.0)% Nicky Henderson 69 42 60.9% (4.18) (6.1)% Willie Mullins 163 101 62.0% (10.39) (6.4)% Gordon Elliott 64 38 59.4% (4.54) (7.1)% Donald McCain 17 11 64.7% (1.34) (7.9)% Alan King 29 17 58.6% (2.47) (8.5)% Jonjo O'Neill 19 11 57.9% (1.84) (9.7)% |
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I think you will find that Lay P McManus shows a healthy profit with his odds on shots.
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kipling 20 Nov 15 18:14
.....Then Fitzgerald arrived and the stable went downhill. It picked up the year Fitzgerald left but is in decline again now. Not trying to be rude here but do people just say the first thing that comes into their heads? Mick Fitzgerald won a whole stack of top races during his career both for Nicky Henderson and other trainers, including the Grand National, was twice top jockey at the Cheltenham Festival winning races like the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Arkle, Cathcart, Coral Cup, Mildmay of Fleet, Ryanair Chase, Stayers's Hurdle, Triumph Hurdle, as well as other top races like the Aintree Hurdle, Bula Hurdle, Charlie Hall Chase, Christmas Hurdle, Cleeve Hurdle, Feltham Chase, King George, Martell Cup, Vict0r Ch@ndler Chase, Tingle Creek and both the T0te Gold Trophy Hurdle and Chase with several of those won more than once and in total rode 81 Grade rated winners in hurdles and chases combined. |
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The list below tells you what you need to know. The more high profile!e the trainer, the more odds on shots he has and the more you lose by backing them
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I forgot to add Lay P McManus healthy profit is linked to those that drift.
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Who makes these odds on??
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Bookmakers backed up by punters make favourites surely? Going back to Henderson, he was unlucky to have 2 fallers yesterday but in general too many of his horses have been fading badly and that is not luck.
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get the same thing every year with all the top profile trainers at some point
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a thread on here saying someone is out of form is often the cue for them to go on a spree
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Henderson chasers have mostly run poorly for the last 18 months! Long time to having a lean spell.
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the initial post was not correct though about laying his odds on shots in general for profit. I find it strange when no evidence is posted to back up these statements.
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