on me laptop

and Kelvin Hall ( and speaking of Arnie - the name of the bloke who played the Predator) will feckin lose.

its not guessin, its brainy workin. and much safer than laying 1000's and backin 1.01's matey. How's the plastering job going? Most work you right arms seen in a long time I reckon.

yay... just another 38 winners to go...

I don't know how the hell you get matched on enough

you've done very well to make this last.

I'm amazed that there are not 'too many' others trying to do exactly the same thing (ie nick some in play off the %BFSP favs)

liquidity in play is shoite now too

when you see the fav is going to come home then lay one that obv isnt. or dutch it with one outside of the bookies mark up. there's many ways as I ve told you before. Also when you miss a match staking and managment is key. Most try to stake to recoveer the loss. You dont, only the spread.

it has been a bit of a drag to be honest for the past few weeks. But look at the figures.. sure Ive lost a bit - but  Ive also turned a 240% profit in 10 days. The trick is keeping it! Can usually double a bank within a month though.

what odds are you laying the one that 'obviously isn't going to win'

just enough to lower the liability. You can see whats happening just by watching the odds flick around. if your liability is say 100 you only need to lower it by a tenner or to make the spread required. Its easier than it sounds.

please don't say told you so if it gets done we all know eventually a few favs will get beat

you double your money in a month ?

come on lex - 5% per month , compounded is worth 80% on bank in a year , which is absolutely brilliant .
And you double it in a month ????

1.75 IR is a big % lEX

anuvver bleedin fav. un believable. you goto laff..

and yes we are due a spell of favs losing soon

ta.

and Ive had enough of this beating to I will return tomorrow.

btw - do you keep records of the results? if you feel inclined plot the strike rate in a graph over 28 days. then take a random 28 day period and then another.


Zealot. You lay it with a liability at approx 15% of industry starting price. 3.05 ISP = 2/1 = 2.7 which is only a few ticks. The average fav is 2.75 and most under 3.5 will shorten by 15%. if they dont, then stake to get back the spread not the whole loss. But never lay a fav much bigger than ISP. it will bite you.

actually thats not what I say at all. and youre not making the right observations. look at the peaks and troughs and the frequency of the cycles. You will see a pattern. Even today will be in the pattern which will emerge of the next few days when the strike rate settlesdown to the mean once more. My guess is about 10 days.

so if you can predict these cycles why don't you only play when they are in your favour LEX ?

the logic of your laying at below SP is of course extremely sound, if achieved consistently enough this MUST yield profits.

the cyclical and predictive elements of the distribution of favs is complete guff

if 47 favs win in the next 100 races it doesn't mean this bias will be reset within the next 100 races

good night

Dont get me started on casinos.... horses aint nuffin like casinos (fixed odds) you cant win with fixed odds, you just get lucky.
Bookmaker events are a completely, and literally, different animal.

geez.... lex......