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Deltâ
03 Nov 15 22:06
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Date Joined: 12 Mar 02
| Topic/replies: 62,895 | Blogger: Deltâ's blog
is this Pemba really a 11/10 'ish shot off the one [FR] run iyo


3 quick runs in 4 months 2 flat 1 jump then 227 days off

C/Pieces applied twice [ off here ]

USA stallion

SP's of 53/1, 57/1, 46/1


tar
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Report knot in wood November 3, 2015 10:24 PM GMT
chic name w/p the bet around 6-1?
Report TheAnorak November 4, 2015 9:02 AM GMT
Morning Delta,

Certainly wouldn't interest me at that price on what it's achieved so far. In fact if somebody offered me the chance to buy a filly that started her career  with a 14,000 euro price tag in a 2-y-old fillies claimer, my reaction would be 'Run, run fast'. Especially as she trailed home almost last in that race!

The form of her sole run over hurdles contains mixed messages, as the second and sixth have done OK since, but the rest look ordinary. Overall I'd be wary of the merit of a 3-y-old fillies hurdle restricted to newcomers and run in March.

The breeding is another question mark, as the sire was a 6F sprinter and has only produced winners on the flat at around 1M to 10F - and the dam never raced and her three offspring to race so far have a record of 0/22. There's no stamina on either side of that pedigree.

She came from a yard where the trainer has the reputation of driving a hard bargain and from owners that are consistent sellers to the UK market. On the available evidence, I'd say they've stitched up Million In Mind good and proper.

The other French import, Cobra De Mai, doesn't make much appeal either, as the 'bumper' he won was a maiden event and not a very good one at that. His sire does at least produce good NH horses, but the dam was hopeless - four runs in France over fences as a 5-y-old and she fell in two of them which were cross country races.

The price of Pemba seems to be almost entirely based on the stable tour comments by Alan King, which the Post spotlight writer appears to have swallowed whole and tipped her on that basis. So I guess how you bet this race also depends on how much you trust the trainer's remarks!
Report parispike November 4, 2015 9:12 AM GMT
Useful TheAnorak,thanks. THEY seem to think it's a cert. We shall see!
Report noidea November 4, 2015 9:36 AM GMT
Alan King says that Pemba is being aimed at the juvenile fillies hurdle at Aintree in December.
A race he won last year with Nyanza, who won on her hurdles début on November 2nd. It would seem
that he's following the same sort of plan. Whether or not the animal is good enough is another matter,
and as TheAnorak says how you bet depends on whether you trust his comments.
If they've paid a lot for it he's not going to talk it down.
Report swift-tuttle November 4, 2015 10:31 AM GMT
getting harder
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 12:02 PM GMT
thanks for the input The Anorak


'THEY' cant seem to get enough on this, we seem to be Against the Crowd....


GL
Report Can't Catch Me November 4, 2015 12:03 PM GMT
Thought Vocaliser looked very interesting in this race at 8-1. Has certainly shown more ability than most in this
Report sofiakenny November 4, 2015 12:45 PM GMT
getting harder



oooh matron!
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 12:46 PM GMT
I laid it at 2.04 and it's not looking good.
Report steerforth November 4, 2015 1:10 PM GMT
Normally I would not have given this race a second glance. Now I can't wait to see what happens. Fascinating stuff!
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 1:32 PM GMT
sparrow - its on its way back there now Cool
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 1:33 PM GMT
Yes delta, just noticed and wondering where on earth it will finish up.  Grin
Report Can't Catch Me November 4, 2015 2:04 PM GMT
Drift taking shape now Plain
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:05 PM GMT
2.42  Shocked
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 2:05 PM GMT
lost a leg now  ... Laugh
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:05 PM GMT
2.7 goodness me.  Laugh
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:06 PM GMT
2.82 even.
Report WestRat November 4, 2015 2:06 PM GMT
2.84
Report Can't Catch Me November 4, 2015 2:06 PM GMT
2.8 and rising...
Report Can't Catch Me November 4, 2015 2:10 PM GMT
Doesnt say much for any of the newcomers, that winning.
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:10 PM GMT
Well done, delta.
Report Can't Catch Me November 4, 2015 2:10 PM GMT
WD Delta btw
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 2:11 PM GMT
WD ALL


especially k i w


not million in mind ....
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:12 PM GMT
1.39 in running.
Report crepello November 4, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
Well done Delta and The Anorak - good stuff

kiw got the winner too - WD
Report sparrow November 4, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
1.39             £542        
1.4             £379        
1.42             £2,212        
1.43             £184        
1.44             £600        
1.45             £7        
1.46     £1         £702        
1.47     £22         £180        
1.48     £32         £28        
1.49             £22        
1.5             £618        
1.51             £541        
1.52     £10         £414        
1.53             £191        
1.54             £206        
1.55     £7         £2,477
Report TheAnorak November 4, 2015 2:14 PM GMT
Cobra De Mai looks like a snake in the grass.
Report parispike November 4, 2015 6:29 PM GMT
Spring horse MAYbe
Report Swardean November 4, 2015 7:03 PM GMT
Delta, you like your juv hurdles.

Very strange one tomorrow in 1.10 Market Rasen

Michael Dods doesn't have many hurdlers and this one looks a bizarre recruit.   Sprint bred and not seem for 18 months following sole 2yo run.   What are they playing at and why persevere with this one?
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 8:43 PM GMT
no logic sometimes Swardean - Captain Rio Shocked
Report TheAnorak November 4, 2015 9:21 PM GMT
Denton Carnival kept giving trouble at the stalls and being withdrawn, and then failed two stalls tests in October last year. I presume they gave up on flat racing for him after that. If he'd failed a third stalls test, the horse would have been banned anyway.
Report Deltâ November 4, 2015 9:29 PM GMT
Date Course     Conditions     Race Result     Jockey     OR     Class
01Oct14     New     7GF     2y Mdn(6K)         withdrawn (with drawn)             4
11Aug14     Thi     7S     2y Mdn(5K)         withdrawn (Withdrawn)             5
26May14     Red     5GS     2y Mdn(4K)     8-11[12/1]     6th of 10, 8.75L behind Prince Bonnaire     A Mullen         5






Non-Race related incidents

The Stewards held an enquiry following a report from the Starter that DENTON CARNIVAL (IRE), trained by Michael Dods, was unruly behind the stalls, refused to enter and was withdrawn. The trainer’s representative's attention was drawn to the restriction incurred under Rule (B)44 and informed that the gelding could not run until the day after passing a stalls test. This being the second occasion within the previous 12 months that DENTON CARNIVAL (IRE) had been reported, the Stewards informed the trainer's representative that if the gelding were reported for a third time within the same period, DENTON CARNIVAL (IRE) would be prevented from having a stalls test for 6 months.
Report knot in wood November 4, 2015 9:35 PM GMT
how does that duke of medina get in juvenile hurdles,remember toby balding training him.
Report Captain Christy November 4, 2015 10:19 PM GMT
I'm not sure why a horse not liking stalls would have to do with backing it in a NH race?
Report onlooker November 4, 2015 11:16 PM GMT
Where you a MOD in your youth - knot in wood?
Report knot in wood November 7, 2015 4:22 PM GMT
if you re-read this thread the anorak would you have  a opinion on skeltons fouburg in tomorrows juvenile hurdle at sandown.

notice he's owned by mr brooks who used to have the majority of his horses with venita williams,apparently a well bred horse.

thanks in advance if you post.
Report TheAnorak November 7, 2015 5:34 PM GMT
Hi KIW,

Not much I can tell you except that it's a full brother to Fou Et Sage, who flopped for same connections at Cheltenham a week ago. That one left France in April, this one followed in August - don't know if Skelton is buying them and passing them on to Brooks, or Brooks bought them for him to train.

I don't place much faith in the idea that A will turn out good because his half brother B is a star - and that's because in my time I've owned half brothers to a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, a Sun Alliance Hurdle winner and a July Cup winner, but I always had the black sheep of the family!

I've heard more than one rumour this year about Skelton's dealings with owners from other yards, so no great surprise to see Mr Brooks on board.
Report knot in wood November 7, 2015 5:59 PM GMT
thanks the anorak.

ive followed a horse called baradari(owned by brooks) who was  quite a useful juvenile for vw(now with skelton),they payed a pretty penny for him so would imagine fouburg did not come cheap.

thought the top two(chic name and duke street) might be beatable with their penalties and fouberg if any good could be the one to take advantage.

perhaps the market might be the best guide,thanks again for your reply.
Report Deltâ November 7, 2015 6:11 PM GMT
the market told you early doors to back Pemba


ignore it  k i w  -
Report Deltâ November 7, 2015 6:15 PM GMT
Going/Track

Chase - Good to Soft, Good in places Hurdle - Soft, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: Chase 6.2 Hurdle 5.7 on Friday at 16:00)

Rails: Chase distances as advertised. 2 mile Hurdle and NH Flat Race - add 31 yards 2 mile 4f Hurdle - add 48 yards






Sandown Park / Sun 08 Nov
Updated @ Sat 07 Nov

Weather

7mm rain Thursday.3mm rain Friday.5mm rain Saturday - eased mid- afternoon. Overnight and Sunday expected to be dry.
Report Deltâ November 7, 2015 6:21 PM GMT
dont forget its P1 - for Duke Street ..
Report Deltâ November 7, 2015 6:35 PM GMT
Sandown Park / Sun 08 Nov
Updated @ Sat 07 Nov

Non-Runners

    Borak (IRE)
    Declared: Sat 07 Nov 1:21pm
    Reason: Vets Cert (Injured in Box)
Report knot in wood November 7, 2015 11:20 PM GMT
fouburg non runner-going?
Report Deltâ November 8, 2015 10:23 AM GMT
Fouburg (FR)
Declared: Sat 07 Nov 7:32pm
Reason: Going
Report TheAnorak November 8, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
That performance by Chic Name doesn't say much for the Warwick form, does it?
Report knot in wood November 8, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
not saying he's(chic name) any great shakes but think todays race might have come a bit quick.

btw-notice the trainer(hobson) buys a lot of french imports.
Report Deltâ November 11, 2015 6:02 PM GMT
I see Fouburg tries again tomorrow k i w

I also see you have snaffed all the gift of Evens the King one in it on the sportsbook Shocked
Report knot in wood November 11, 2015 10:23 PM GMT
looks a watching race again delta.

whats your opinion on the sky lino performance today,i only seen the replay on sporting life and ran well considering he never settled.

did not realise until later he had run a mile before the race.
Report Deltâ November 12, 2015 9:33 AM GMT
yeah loose pre race - ran about quite a bit and kept avoiding capture - went thru/jumped a few plastic rails - + never settled...

having said all that jury out on it currently ..
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
Can't find any DS quotes today, but ahead of the aborted Sandown run..

Our final runner of the weekend is Fouburg who starts off for us in a Juvenile Hurdle at Sandown (1.50). He’s a full-brother to Fou Et Sage who slightly disappointed for us at Cheltenham but he was still a 147 rated juvenile nonetheless. Fouburg had done a lot of pre-training in France before coming to us and we’ve liked what we’ve seen of him at home. It’s not going to be easy for him as he’s an unraced 3YO running against horses with experience but I still think he’ll run nicely.

To find out about Who Dares Wins, you can call Henry Ponsonbby's info line on 09065 333 331
Report Deltâ November 12, 2015 10:35 AM GMT
can ya phone Henry and let us know

tar
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 10:38 AM GMT
@ 1.53p/min I'll give it a miss Delta
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 10:39 AM GMT
I'll see if I can reverse the charges
Report The Headmaster November 12, 2015 12:29 PM GMT
I've heard more than one rumour this year about Skelton's dealings with owners from other yards, so no great surprise to see Mr Brooks on board.

Hhmm....I've heard the odd one too.  It's a good job for DS the trainers' table is not a popularity contest.  Not really 'the form' old chap, what?
Report TheAnorak November 12, 2015 1:24 PM GMT
Allegedly, he tried to remove the star horse from one stable and subsequently found himself pinned against a weighing room wall, where he was given the choice of withdrawing his offer or taking the horse and training it from a wheelchair.
Report Deltâ November 12, 2015 1:29 PM GMT
whats the usual offer, free fees?
Report Deltâ November 12, 2015 1:36 PM GMT
yep, Evens a gift  ...
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 3:41 PM GMT
If a horse has previously won overseas and them comes to race in UK, is it classed as a novice?
Report Deltâ November 12, 2015 3:53 PM GMT
winners here still run in novices ...
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 4:00 PM GMT
So is La Vaticane a novice?  over hurdles or fences?
Report TheAnorak November 12, 2015 4:11 PM GMT
Neither - she won over hurdles in 2013 and her first win over fences was in December 2014, so her novice chase options ran out at the end of last season, i.e the end of April 2015.

If she was still a novice, she wouldn't be allowed to run in the first tomorrow after only two runs over fences.
Report Swardean November 12, 2015 4:13 PM GMT
Ok thank you, was considering a cheltemham festival novice bet.
Report knot in wood November 12, 2015 4:47 PM GMT
jcb triumph hurdle trial on saturday at cheltenham should be informative race.
Report knot in wood November 13, 2015 5:55 PM GMT
poor turnout:

fingertips-closely matched with romain de somain if you can take the french run at face value,runs for big spending owners.

oceane-mid 80s rated flat rating? who as beaten trees in his 2 hurdle victories,looks a nice type but connections have stated he might be best on decent ground which would be a worry with the forecast rain.

romain de somain-impressed me with his slick hurdling when winning at wincanton but beat nothing of note.

wolf of windlesham-60s rated on the level who won well at ludlow fto but the second fast scat is very moderate.

coo star sivola- french form looks pretty moderate from what i can work out.

conclusion-looks a watching race for me but if pushed hope romain de somain can follow up.

thoughts anyone?
Report Deltâ November 13, 2015 6:32 PM GMT
I agree with ya first line...
Report Deltâ November 21, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
WD there k i w ..
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