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28.8 Melbourne Cup round up.
Evening members tomorrow is big Melbourne Cup day again and lets have a look
at the fitness levels of horses, ( I could be just a little out as no records) I know of and my thoughts.
1 SNOW SKY 98% last start Barrier 16 $45.00
Will pass on this horse, though have seen on late TV win nicely in the UK, but not this race.
2 CRITERIAN 100% last start Barrier 14 $16.00
The reason it could not catch Winx in the Cox Plate was its strength factors just down a titch.
I expect him to weaken out over the longer distance of the 3200m and not be in contention.
3 FAME GAME 100% last start Barrier 12 $4.20
He ran and much publicized race last start, did the jockey not try so as to avoid a penalty?
Super fit and well credentialed runner, a big chance how I have watched the Caulfield Cup
Replay about 10 times and still not convinced he is good value at short odds.
4 OUR IVANHOE 99% last start Barrier 22 $18.00
He ran a nice 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and is huge in size. Not sure he has the class or distance ability
To win the Melbourne Cup, especially from such a wide barrier, pass.
5 BIG ORANGE UKNOWN
6 HARTNELL 97% last start Barrier 17 $31
Nothing about this horse has struck me as yet, chance will improve if the track is downgraded to slow/heavy1. No
7 HOKO BRAVE 97% last start Barrier 20 $35
He has fitness improvement, but looks a grinder and a query at the 3200 metres, may be best outsider.
8 MAX DYNAMITE UKNOWN
9 RED CADEAUX Uknown (Been around for years, great horses for owners with plenty of thrills) No.
10 TRIP TO PARIS 98% Barrier 14 $7.00
Nice big horse whom on 98% fit ran a great race behind Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup.
saw a bit of him during the week and up to 99% and may peak at 100% tomorrow. Can run the distance
and good size horse to win. Big show.
11 WHO SHOT THE BARMAN 98% Barrier 6 $21.00
His last run was poor because it’s his strength factors that stopped him from doing anything.
He does have distance form and if look stronger in the yard include, but does need a turn around.
12 SKY HUNTER UKNOWN
13 THE OFFER 99% Barrier 13 $35
We tipped and backed him and he won the Bendigo Cup beating a horse just out of maiden company.
this race is a lot stronger and he needs to present in the yard stronger if he is going to keep going over
the last 600, where the race is there to be won. Class will stop him.
14 GRAND MARSHALL UNKNOWN
Would need a wet track to perform better in my opinion. Pass
15 PREFERMENT Last start 99% Barrier 11 $9
I have been a huge fan of this horse since his first race at Sandown 17 months ago and then said he could win
the Derby because of his great looks and breeding and I backed him right from the start about 6 times, he duly won for me.
Massive size horse with all the right group 1 classic looks about him.
Just a bit disappointing in the Cox Plate where had to work hard in record time run race.
He needs a dry track, will come wide the last 1,000 metres and let down hard in the straight; if peaks at 100% Super Fit.
Positive his blood count will be 100% and that allows for a big finish, of course if he goes the 3200m? .... Big chance.
16 QUEST FOR MORE UKNOWN
17 ALMOONQUITH Has raced local I just can’t picture his fitness and the type of horse in my thoughts, not sure.
18 KINGFISHER UNKNOWN $41
19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE last start 99% Barrier 1 $101
Racing consistently over 2500, 2600…class is a question mark in this race.
20 BONDI BEACH UKNOWN $23
21 SERTERIOUS UNKNOWN fitness, class a big question mark over him $100
22 THE UNITED STATES 97% Barrier 3 $19
Race in good form right on the edge on strength factors, if too many ribs give him a miss and he will
Weaken out of it, better roughie if peaks at 100% super fit and has good strength factors.
23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Barrier 24 last start 98% fit one out and won x a nose for members. $35
Will be in it for 2500 metres and will feel the pinch then and struggle. Had a hard run on Saturday.
24 GUST OF WIND 97% Barrier 19 $35
The only mare in the race and if had good inside draw would have been a bit of a show for the exotics.
Nice type, lightly raced and has 3 lengths fitness improvement in her.
Who Do I Like?
I like TRIP TO PARIS, nice type who a few lengths in fitness still in him and worked home nicely on
Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup.
PREFERMENT: Quality type stayer who needs NO RAIN, I expect him to strip 100% super fit tomorrow,
Will pull out wide to make his long run home and has a big heart in close finishes.
FAME GAME, suspicious run last start, has great blood count, good records and hard to beat.
Best of others: Any of the UK horses and HOKO BRAVE, if peaks at 100% Fit.
Most of the Australian horses are only making up the numbers.
Good luck punters.
James
Evening members tomorrow is big Melbourne Cup day again and lets have a look
at the fitness levels of horses, ( I could be just a little out as no records) I know of and my thoughts.
1 SNOW SKY 98% last start Barrier 16 $45.00
Will pass on this horse, though have seen on late TV win nicely in the UK, but not this race.
2 CRITERIAN 100% last start Barrier 14 $16.00
The reason it could not catch Winx in the Cox Plate was its strength factors just down a titch.
I expect him to weaken out over the longer distance of the 3200m and not be in contention.
3 FAME GAME 100% last start Barrier 12 $4.20
He ran and much publicized race last start, did the jockey not try so as to avoid a penalty?
Super fit and well credentialed runner, a big chance how I have watched the Caulfield Cup
Replay about 10 times and still not convinced he is good value at short odds.
4 OUR IVANHOE 99% last start Barrier 22 $18.00
He ran a nice 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and is huge in size. Not sure he has the class or distance ability
To win the Melbourne Cup, especially from such a wide barrier, pass.
5 BIG ORANGE UKNOWN
6 HARTNELL 97% last start Barrier 17 $31
Nothing about this horse has struck me as yet, chance will improve if the track is downgraded to slow/heavy1. No
7 HOKO BRAVE 97% last start Barrier 20 $35
He has fitness improvement, but looks a grinder and a query at the 3200 metres, may be best outsider.
8 MAX DYNAMITE UKNOWN
9 RED CADEAUX Uknown (Been around for years, great horses for owners with plenty of thrills) No.
10 TRIP TO PARIS 98% Barrier 14 $7.00
Nice big horse whom on 98% fit ran a great race behind Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup.
saw a bit of him during the week and up to 99% and may peak at 100% tomorrow. Can run the distance
and good size horse to win. Big show.
11 WHO SHOT THE BARMAN 98% Barrier 6 $21.00
His last run was poor because it’s his strength factors that stopped him from doing anything.
He does have distance form and if look stronger in the yard include, but does need a turn around.
12 SKY HUNTER UKNOWN
13 THE OFFER 99% Barrier 13 $35
We tipped and backed him and he won the Bendigo Cup beating a horse just out of maiden company.
this race is a lot stronger and he needs to present in the yard stronger if he is going to keep going over
the last 600, where the race is there to be won. Class will stop him.
14 GRAND MARSHALL UNKNOWN
Would need a wet track to perform better in my opinion. Pass
15 PREFERMENT Last start 99% Barrier 11 $9
I have been a huge fan of this horse since his first race at Sandown 17 months ago and then said he could win
the Derby because of his great looks and breeding and I backed him right from the start about 6 times, he duly won for me.
Massive size horse with all the right group 1 classic looks about him.
Just a bit disappointing in the Cox Plate where had to work hard in record time run race.
He needs a dry track, will come wide the last 1,000 metres and let down hard in the straight; if peaks at 100% Super Fit.
Positive his blood count will be 100% and that allows for a big finish, of course if he goes the 3200m? .... Big chance.
16 QUEST FOR MORE UKNOWN
17 ALMOONQUITH Has raced local I just can’t picture his fitness and the type of horse in my thoughts, not sure.
18 KINGFISHER UNKNOWN $41
19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE last start 99% Barrier 1 $101
Racing consistently over 2500, 2600…class is a question mark in this race.
20 BONDI BEACH UKNOWN $23
21 SERTERIOUS UNKNOWN fitness, class a big question mark over him $100
22 THE UNITED STATES 97% Barrier 3 $19
Race in good form right on the edge on strength factors, if too many ribs give him a miss and he will
Weaken out of it, better roughie if peaks at 100% super fit and has good strength factors.
23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Barrier 24 last start 98% fit one out and won x a nose for members. $35
Will be in it for 2500 metres and will feel the pinch then and struggle. Had a hard run on Saturday.
24 GUST OF WIND 97% Barrier 19 $35
The only mare in the race and if had good inside draw would have been a bit of a show for the exotics.
Nice type, lightly raced and has 3 lengths fitness improvement in her.
Who Do I Like?
I like TRIP TO PARIS, nice type who a few lengths in fitness still in him and worked home nicely on
Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup.
PREFERMENT: Quality type stayer who needs NO RAIN, I expect him to strip 100% super fit tomorrow,
Will pull out wide to make his long run home and has a big heart in close finishes.
FAME GAME, suspicious run last start, has great blood count, good records and hard to beat.
Best of others: Any of the UK horses and HOKO BRAVE, if peaks at 100% Fit.
Most of the Australian horses are only making up the numbers.
Good luck punters.
James
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Surely Kingfisher is worth a punt at 50/1 was unlucky to win Ascot Gold Cup. Ran like a drain since and trip might be too short bit at prices he's worth a e/w punt.
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