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halcyon days
26 Jul 15 20:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 30,414 | Blogger: halcyon days's blog
Steve Palmer, no golf to bet on, let's try 40 sovs on a dog !


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xpc0n


Seems somewhat compulsive !    Shocked
Pause Switch to Standard View Britain at the Bookies, tomorrow...
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Report handtorofe August 4, 2015 10:54 AM BST
That 3rd episode was utter garbage.Simon Clare and the professionals now that was funny.
Report kavvie August 4, 2015 10:55 AM BST
johnny theres no fbots in ireland because the politicians rightly didnt allow them...politicians after all legislate for these things!!??!  and if they were handing out drugs at every street corner would drug use rise?of course it would. some people are weak.they need to be protected from these horrible evil machines.as in banning them.at least if people are betting on horses/dogs/football theres some degree of skill attached as in form, draw  etc.
Report roida August 4, 2015 10:57 AM BST
allowing a bloke to put 2200 into a fobt is no different to letting men sit in a bar all day ruining their health and going skint...its all wrong!
Report kavvie August 4, 2015 11:00 AM BST
i twould take a long time to drink 2200 in a pub!!
Report sparrow August 4, 2015 11:04 AM BST
Such a caring attitude shown by people on here.
Report GAZO August 4, 2015 11:04 AM BST
the machines are not really the problem,its the amounts you can win and lose on them thats the problem
Report Johnny_Mustang August 4, 2015 11:08 AM BST
So if they legalised brothels in the UK would we all rush off and get conker's deep in some hooker? Of course we wouldn't. Oh, hang on....

In the same way people choose to climb a mountain 'because it was there' they don't necessarily have to do their b0llocks on a FTOB simply because it was there.

And as usual, I'm right.
Report Johnny_Mustang August 4, 2015 11:09 AM BST
^FOBT obviously.
Report roida August 4, 2015 11:11 AM BST
drink/drugs/gambling..all very addictive and will ruin most peoples lifes if allowed to participate freely.

which in this country unfortunately they are.
Report pawras August 4, 2015 11:11 AM BST
the people on fobt's strike me as the same as those who constantly poured money into fruit machines previously.
Report sparrow August 4, 2015 11:13 AM BST
They are all gaming machines choose what names you give to them.
Report pawras August 4, 2015 11:25 AM BST
There are always going to be people with a tendency for self destruction, it’s difficult to try and save them from themselves without curtailing the freedoms of others.  E.g. I shouldn’t be prevented from buying a few bottles of spirits or a crate even if I want just because some would proceed to drink themselves unconscious and into hospital etc.

I dunno what the answer is but if you then legislate to limit the money put into the machines, what’s to stop people then randomly put money on horses, dogs, football?  The end point is to then limit all betting to small stakes and only so many £s per hour.
Report GAZO August 4, 2015 11:30 AM BST
your last point is what they already do to alot of people
Report sparrow August 4, 2015 11:32 AM BST
I used to be a secretary of a working mens club and the gaming machines kept that club going until the bookmakers got hold of them. We had our addicts just the same but at least the money was put to a better use.
Report Aviboyd August 4, 2015 11:36 AM BST
What the Doris in the shop should have done was make Terry take a break when she took him that drink over.  Terry was lucid and understood what he was doing whilst not playing the machine.  These machines are designed meticulously to brainwash the player, that is why they should be banned...
Report pawras August 4, 2015 11:39 AM BST
From what I saw with a carpenter that did some work for me there also seems to be lot of the same stuff available on your phone, so if you’ve got a bank account there’d always be a website which would happily take all your money while you watch the flashing colours and shapes move about etc.
Report plotless August 4, 2015 11:42 AM BST
People who complain about getting accounts closed down by bookies, which is disgraceful obviously, why not just get those bets on here? Or am I missing something?
Report Cider August 4, 2015 11:48 AM BST
My accounts are not closed down, just made unusable, often limited to stakes under £1. If I could replicate the bets on the exchange, I would.
Report plotless August 4, 2015 11:52 AM BST

Aug 4, 2015 -- 11:48AM, Cider wrote:


My accounts are not closed down, just made unusable, often limited to stakes under £1. If I could replicate the bets on the exchange, I would.


Is it the size of the bet you cant get matched on the exchange?

Report Cider August 4, 2015 11:57 AM BST
potless, either the markets are not available, significantly lower price on the exchange, zero liquidity/market not formed. Most of my business is conducted away from the exchanges. I might add that horse racing is not my field, but specials is.
Report plotless August 4, 2015 11:59 AM BST
Gotcha. Thanks. Guess this is the biggest issue for those that like to gamble away from the bigger, obvious markets.
Report Breedingmad August 4, 2015 12:02 PM BST
Simple solution for FOBT's is install eyeball or face recognition in all of them and you could spot problem gamblers
with the blink of an eye...no excuse with the technology era we live in...Just my look at it all...
Report Big Boss August 4, 2015 12:17 PM BST
absolutely, face recognition in the latest laptops, cant be that expensive
Report Breedingmad August 4, 2015 12:19 PM BST
Its like selling heroin with a flyer that say's if you get addicted please get help..
Report dustybin August 4, 2015 1:23 PM BST
Blimey
I havnt caught up on this thread only read last few posts.
Face rognition technology?
Then they will know who is playing and how they play and have a set pattern to take the most they can from the individual on data they hold about you.
And you know they would, Amazon did it.
Report dustybin August 4, 2015 1:24 PM BST
Recognition
Report dustybin August 4, 2015 1:29 PM BST
Aviboyd
I used to see ppl who were for the most part functional bright individuals do their brains in on big jackpot bandits.
I worked behind the bar, and any notion of telling somebody 500 down it might be a good time to stop would have received derision.
Also what would happen if they stopped for a bit and the next guy put a quid in and dropped the big un?
I've seen some nasty situations where ppl wanted the game shutting down while they ran around getting more cash to chase the jackpot.
Evil feckin things
They are like puppeteers.
Report roida August 4, 2015 3:29 PM BST
The most important situation is the betting shops will allow anyone to lose any amount in a fobt..but they wont allow anyone to win by placing bets over the counter..that is the biggest scandal.
Report xmoneyx August 4, 2015 3:57 PM BST
if you stay in bookies,no way backExcited
Report Fashion Fever August 4, 2015 4:40 PM BST
that guy with the essex accent who got a free day out at york with joes must be doing absolute brains to them
Report Breedingmad August 4, 2015 4:49 PM BST
No free LunchWink
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 4:51 PM BST
i wonder if the regular 100k winner usually knows where his horse is in a race?

shrewd when asking his mate where is it after its gone 3l clear.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 4:51 PM BST
that all seemed like a load of carp it really did.
Report kavvie August 4, 2015 4:53 PM BST
getting 700 on a greyhound with 365   not that was the biggest surprise in the 3 programmes!!
Report Brian August 4, 2015 4:58 PM BST
I know a guy who backs big (and I strongly expect loses) who thinks 365 are great. He told me he backed a golfer who for reasons I can't remember didn't appear for the final round and he rang up to complain and they agreed to give him half his stake back. So I'm not surprised they will lay "certain" people what they want.
Wasn't that the guy(on BBC show) who backed a greyhound each way (quarter the odds I presume).
Report Fashion Fever August 4, 2015 4:59 PM BST
i guess you can have it if your doing tank to them, and not viewed as an arber
Report Fashion Fever August 4, 2015 5:01 PM BST
never ever known on oncourse each way bet in 20 years of going to dog tracks
Report roida August 4, 2015 5:04 PM BST
ive seen people bet ew at track on dogs..cant see the problem if you're getting value.
Report Brian August 4, 2015 5:13 PM BST
Unlikely to be value if it is a competitive race - to be fair don't know how competitive that particular race was though I thought the bookie was reticent about giving him the price until he mentioned each way.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:13 PM BST
Value means nothing if it loses.
Report roida August 4, 2015 5:14 PM BST
cant believe you've said that ^ Crazy
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:21 PM BST
As a rule I don't back anything less than 3/1. If my selection is 4/1, I'll back it. It someone says to me, that's not the value bet of the race, this xyz at 7/1 is the bet, I'll ignore it. My selection is based on sound criteria, so I back it. Whether it's ' value' or not ( win or lose)is totally irrelevant to me.
Report roida August 4, 2015 5:23 PM BST
Whether it's ' value' or not ( win or lose)is totally irrelevant to me.

so igive you 6/4 in a coin toss and you still lose the value is irrelevant? Crazy
Report jamesdean August 4, 2015 5:23 PM BST
Might be irrelevant to you facts but it will certainly be relevant to your p+l being a + or a -.
Report Magic__Daps August 4, 2015 5:25 PM BST
I have never understood when their is a price cut off for a selection for some punters within reason. I've read many say they wouldn't back odds on, but surely everyone would have backed Frankel at 10/11.... Granted that is moving the goalposts very far so to speak but I just don't get it myself - EVERYTHING has a price imo.
Report wallis August 4, 2015 5:28 PM BST
One of the mates of the bellend punter in the York corals box who couldnt spot the horse he had punted was Chris Melling.  Former world pool champion and Mosconi cup player.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:32 PM BST
jamesdean     04 Aug 15 17:23 
Might be irrelevant to you facts but it will certainly be relevant to your p+l being a + or a -.


Nope. My profit is banked thank you, irrespective of whether winning bets are classed as ' value' or not..
If my selection process states a bet, then it's backed. it's not based on whether it should be 5/1 or 8/1 ( says who ?). Am I going to not bet it at 5/1 because 'someone'  says it should be 8/1 ? I don't think so !
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 5:36 PM BST
facts you must be a good judge of prices they are certainly not irrelevant

try adding just 10% on all your lays and taking 10% off your backs and see what happens
Report jamesdean August 4, 2015 5:38 PM BST
Well if you are winning long term you will be getting value whether you are looking for it or not.
You might think it is irrelevant but if you weren't getting it consistently, looking for it or not, you'd be losing.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 5:38 PM BST
is the right answer^
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:39 PM BST
Striding
I never lay
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 5:41 PM BST
well if you back only mate

and take off any percentage from the price it will of course have a huge bearing on your p&l

if you are doing ok it's like JD said, it's because you are judging which prices are ok still even if this is not a conscious process.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:46 PM BST
I make a profit because in a year, the winners x price taken gives me a return greater than my overall stake. Those winners were backed because of the selection criteria. An arbitrary ' value'  price,  is not part of that criteria.
Report jamesdean August 4, 2015 5:53 PM BST
That's called getting value.

Doesn't matter whether it was an arbitrary matter or not. You say you only bet 4/1+. If you started betting them at 5/2 as well (under value) you'd lose long term.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 5:59 PM BST
The winners to selection ratio of the methodology I use to select a bet,is pretty consistent ( based on 8 years of records). As is the average winning sp.( over same period) As long as the price obtained exceeds the winner/ selection %,  I will make a profit. As I only back in handicaps, this price requirement is obtained.
I accept, if it were not, or the winner/ selection % dropped ( or both !), then I would lose. So one could argue ' value' is being obtained.
But, I repeat, value in its self, does not govern  my selection process.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:04 PM BST
your process in itself is highlighting value whether you are looking for it or not
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:06 PM BST
i don't know what it is about the word that seems to upset some people, it may not be visible but it drives everything.

you either back or lay enough at the right prices or not however you select them.

if you don't you lose money and that's a 100% certainty.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 6:26 PM BST
If a definition of the word ' value' is making profit. Then I agree !

If it's '  that horse should be 10/1, so don't back it  because at 5/1 it's not 'value' ' . Then I disagree.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:28 PM BST
how do you selct then facts

i cant think of any system that is going to pick out winners within a narrow range of prices that then turn out to be profitable in the long run?
Report roida August 4, 2015 6:31 PM BST
If it's '  that horse should be 10/1, so don't back it  because at 5/1 it's not 'value' ' . Then I disagree.

depends who's opinion says it should be 10/1 innit
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:31 PM BST
ie there must still be a wide range of prices encountered for any selection process that have to be judged
Report Facts August 4, 2015 6:31 PM BST
Narrow range ? My selections average out at 13/2. My bets are placed on horses ranging from c3/1 through to 20/1.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 6:32 PM BST
* wins average out at 13/2.
Report halcyon days August 4, 2015 6:37 PM BST
''Fact's'' criteria innit !
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:40 PM BST
another word for system
Report roida August 4, 2015 6:40 PM BST
facts..i take it you're paying PC?
Report pawras August 4, 2015 6:40 PM BST
doesn't matter what your average winning odds are on their own, it's that measured against your strike rate that count
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:42 PM BST
if you are looking back to predict results on something that has generated profits in the past


i suppose you can say price doesn't bother you

most systems eventually get eroded if they have shown profits over a few years
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 6:43 PM BST
you can't look at form though and say i fancy this and will back it at whatever odds it is
Report halcyon days August 4, 2015 6:53 PM BST
Fact's does striding...   fact !
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 7:01 PM BST
what looks at form and says i fancy this horse and will back it at whatever odds it is hal?
Report pawras August 4, 2015 7:18 PM BST
The only thing that matters with this is your roi%, if that is positive then you are getting ‘value’ overall.
Report Facts August 4, 2015 7:27 PM BST
pawras     04 Aug 15 18:40 
doesn't matter what your average winning odds are on their own, it's that measured against your strike rate that count



I refer you to my post of 17.59
Report pawras August 4, 2015 7:33 PM BST
I know, I have a similar avg winning odds / strike ratio view of 'value'
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 7:36 PM BST
if you are following a system and it is actually successful in the long run (as i said most are eroded showing any sort of decent profit within a few years Sad ) then the value is implied in this subset even though it is not what you are selecting on.

moist will be assessing a race and using their judgement though and making a call on what price they will accept on any given runner.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 7:36 PM BST
*most not moist Tongue Out
Report THE-GHOST-OF-DICKIE-BIRD August 4, 2015 7:39 PM BST
Cor id love to say something but this is a good thread and i dont want to bring the "gang" over here and ruin it.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 7:40 PM BST
i don't think there is an argument here dickie,i can see what facts is getting at.
Report THE-GHOST-OF-DICKIE-BIRD August 4, 2015 7:42 PM BST
So can i striding but value is everything to me.

Without it your toast in my very humble opinion of cause.
Report stridingedge August 4, 2015 7:46 PM BST
its the definition dickie

if you back everything that has a/b/c/d in place because it has been successful over time then you are not focussing on price per se, you are saying in effect there is an implied value over time in this subset of runners and trusting this will be upheld in future.

this is the only circumstance where price is not an issue to you in your selection process, you are trusting an implied value rather than trying to set your own value price (which is what most do).
Report Facts August 4, 2015 7:50 PM BST
Good definition striding.
Report pawras August 4, 2015 7:55 PM BST
Yep
Report halcyon days August 4, 2015 8:01 PM BST
Moist...



L Laugh L   !
Report Captain Christy August 4, 2015 9:17 PM BST
I dont think anyone mentioning that facking slag gina in the Corals box
Report Johnny_Mustang August 4, 2015 9:19 PM BST
Christy showing his complete ignorance once again.
Report Captain Christy August 4, 2015 9:59 PM BST
go on then enlighten, ffs Laugh
Report THE-GHOST-OF-DICKIE-BIRD August 5, 2015 6:33 AM BST
That made my head hurt stridHappy

But one thing is for sure . . .We each have our ways and if it works for you/me/him/us/them then of cause its that way.

As long as we all have a nip at the fagins of the high street heyHappy
Report differentdrum August 5, 2015 11:17 AM BST
A pretty dire series. The second instalment was the only one worth bothering with and that for reasons that didn't have much to do with the betting industry. The only useful aspect of the last one was to confirm that ending up in a Coral's box would test anyone's sanity. If these are the type of clowns they want to look after....
Report DIE LINKE August 5, 2015 11:19 AM BST
I shudder to think how much the Billy Bunters who were invited to York by Corals are losing with the company.
Report sj August 5, 2015 11:26 AM BST
i first evaluate the fight then decide who i think will win,if the price is not right (imo) i will not back said boxer(or horse)
Value is an overused term in betting,pick the winner first(what you believe will be) then decide wether the odds are for you.
The only time i would back a 'value' selection,is if i make it a pick 'em fight, book odds 1/3 11/8,i would then probably back the 11/8 shot
Report Captain Christy August 5, 2015 5:38 PM BST
What a disgraceful effort by the BBC that was, dumbed down, ill informed shiiite.
Report Facts August 5, 2015 6:28 PM BST
Agreed
Report pawras August 5, 2015 8:06 PM BST
CC - I had to check to see whether you were talking about the bbc prog or the morning line
Report homefortea August 5, 2015 8:38 PM BST
Usual mugs that left school at 15 posting nonesense...
Report Captain Christy August 5, 2015 8:51 PM BST
That's 'nonsense' you fcukwit Laugh
Report homefortea August 5, 2015 8:57 PM BST
It is that a response to me "Captain"...Laugh
Report Mustapha Bath August 5, 2015 9:41 PM BST
Is Steve Palmer any relation to Mike Palmer (ex Racing Post)??
The 2nd episode was hilarious.. Comedy Gold (nearly as funny as this thread) but to be honest the series was total crap!!!
Report Mustapha Bath August 5, 2015 9:41 PM BST
Is Steve Palmer any relation to Mike Palmer (ex Racing Post)??
The 2nd episode was hilarious.. Comedy Gold (nearly as funny as this thread) but to be honest the series was total crap!!!
Report Captain Christy August 5, 2015 10:04 PM BST
It is that a response to me "Captain"...Laugh

pist again I see you dopey fcuker.
Report smirnoff2therescue August 5, 2015 10:10 PM BST
harsh but fair cc LaughLaugh
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