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golden horn 130 - seems a bit steep

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Replies: 50
By:
Rider
When: 07 Jul 15 15:14
gordon,  western hymn is a group 2 winning horse who ran almost exactly to form with TGG for his group 1 ascot running, 10f on gf, (if you consider TGG didnt get a clear run)...

if only all races were this straight forward Wink
By:
Gordon63
When: 07 Jul 15 15:18
yes time will tell - sure the owner is delighted at the rating and only makes retirement this year more likely

i think this particular rating is more about potential than substance, I simply don't believe either the derby or eclipse warrant a 130 rating in comparison to some of the champions mentioned earlier in this thread
By:
Rider
When: 07 Jul 15 15:22

Jul 7, 2015 -- 3:09PM, wondersobright wrote:


rider...it works exactly how I explained, all you have done is repeated the method for all horses in the raceyou haven't even considered how the race was run, sectional times etcthat is what I am talking about when I said there is a lot more evidence available in a race than using 1 horse's rating as a guideI don't dispute the figures you have put up...hope you can see how 1 dimensional they are


i stated the case for sectional times and it approves

but lets consider them in the context of these collateral ratings, the race was tactical and run at a steady pace (compared to the winning time of the 10f handicap), anyone who follows racing knows that slow run races can result of the rags finishing closer to the winner than they should (or would do in a truly run race), so if anything the other horses are potentially flattered by their proximity to the winner and therefore makes the collateral ratings potentially more meritous and not detrimental

By:
Rider
When: 07 Jul 15 15:23

Jul 7, 2015 -- 3:18PM, Gordon63 wrote:


yes time will tell - sure the owner is delighted at the rating and only makes retirement this year more likelyi think this particular rating is more about potential than substance, I simply don't believe either the derby or eclipse warrant a 130 rating in comparison to some of the champions mentioned earlier in this thread


the rating fits together like a jigsaw ffs

By:
Rider
When: 07 Jul 15 15:24
have you ever rated a race?
By:
Gordon63
When: 07 Jul 15 15:26
no but sea the stars, dancing brave, pebbles, brigadier gerard and mill reef would all beat golden horn over 1m to 1m4f
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Jul 15 15:31
so if golden horn had gone off harder he would have beaten them further?

you are talking out of your fkin arse my friend

have a good day
By:
Rider
When: 07 Jul 15 15:38
wonderbright one minute you point to the sectional times (or pace) affecting the accuracy of the collateral rating then when your logic is applied and doesnt work for you you suddenly do a u turn,Laugh

anyway look on the bright side, i'm sure golden horn will get beaten at some point and you'll be able to claim you were right all along, rotfl
By:
oneyallbeenwaiting4
When: 07 Jul 15 16:05
Remember this is the forum that rated Sire De Grugy 180+ for winning a 3 runner handicap.

The rating is not far off I dont think all things considered, the farcical race scenario and WFA in the Eclipse muddies the water but I think had he been allowed to race more naturally off the Championship gallop that you normally get in the Eclipse, he would have won in a more visually impressive manner and by further.

128 seems about right to me but he could improve on that in a properly run King George, 130-132 potential in that race. The POW and Queen Anne form got destroyed in the Eclipse, two of the best races for older horses first half of the season, and with the Derby form backing up in the Irish equivalent its hard to argue against a high rating at the minute, there isnt a horse in Europe just now who would beat Golden Horn on a conventional track.

Golden Horn, Gleneagles and Jack Hobbs appear to be a level above any of the older horses who admittedly, are nothing special. I think Golden Horn will win the King George and Jack Hobbs the Arc and they will both end up overrated as a result of the lack of quality in the divisions .
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Jul 15 16:14
Laugh yeah, sire de grugy one hundred and eighty was a particular highlight of last season
using v similar principles as demonstrated on this thread...x beat y 10 lengths therefore its rating is z...bowlarks
By:
Gordon63
When: 07 Jul 15 16:26
i think solow, treve, free eagle and any number of potential Japanese/Australian challengers will have a say in who ends up winning the major autumn races.

The POW and Queen Anne form got destroyed in the Eclipse, two of the best races for older horses first half of the season, and with the Derby form backing up in the Irish equivalent its hard to argue against a high rating at the minute, there isnt a horse in Europe just now who would beat Golden Horn on a conventional track.

it really doesn't matter the 'prestige' of the race, i doubt anyone considers TGG, WH, CM or T as champions so until and unless GH beats one who is, then for me he's behind some of the eclipse winners I've mentioned and far behind many of the KG/Champion Stakes/Arc winners. let's hope he gets a chance to prove himself worthy of the rating because till now i can't see it
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