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I reckon he's worth 130. First 2 in the Derby pulled well clear, second lagged up in the Irish version and he beat The Grey Gatsby readily enough.
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i agree with OP........130 is a litle too high
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on what basis do you think the rating is too high?
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I'm not so sure.That Eclipse win was hugely impressive....took me back to the King George won by Grundy.
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beating the grey gatsby in what was effectively a match was certainly not an improvement on his derby win and yes the epsom form was held up in ireland but that was basically the placed runners from epsom with a few o brien second strings thrown in, hardly a strong boost though.
the true tests will come when he faces better older horses and encounters different going |
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Same rating as Frankel at 3yo?
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TGG is an excellent yardstick (points to 130), only western hymn of the others would point to a slightly lower figure, thats the slide rule approach, the sectional time analysis by simon rowlands suggests this was a well above average eclipse
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*eclipse winner
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Frankel rating was laughably low if that is the case.
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if this was a well above average eclipse (and I'm pretty sure it wasn't - forget times and sectional analysis, if that meant anything then james willoughby would be richest punter in UK and all american races would be won by favs!) then it shows how much this race has fallen over past 10 years when it regularly attracted the best of the older horses, now they're all kept for KG, either of the champions stakes and Arc
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no tell a lie, the line through TGG is the most prudent on OR in the race, the rest point to a higher marks
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i doubt it was an above average eclipse - and even if it were, then its more a reflection of how far this race has sunk in past 15-20 years as most of the better older horses now follow KG, one of the champions stakes and Arc. and forget the times and sectional analysis because if that meant anything then james willoughby would be the most successful punter in UK and all american races would be won by the favs with all their beyer ratings
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yes
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130 definitely too high.Jack Hobbs merely confirmed his own rating of 119 in Ireland and TGG on 123 (and possibly declining)simply confirmed Golden Horn's rating of 126 albeit with possibly a higher rating to come
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I doubt it was an above average Eclipse and even if it were then it shows how far this race has sunk in past 15+ years as most of the older horses seem to target KG, one of the champions stakes and then Arc
and forget sectional times and analysis, if they meant anything then JW would be most successful punter in UK and all american races would be won by the favs and the beyer ratings |
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Frankel rating is the one after the Eclipse, not the final one, obviously, but Frankel would still be on the bit while Golden Horn, was 'quickening twice' as I've heard some pre-pubescent pundits say recently, imo...
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a slow Dante winner ,an unimpressive derby winner ,quietly hit six times after frankie put his stick down to go clear of the grey goat that needs produced right on the line ,130 ffs ....must be some angry students around
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if you take the eclipse as being the time of their rating then I'd have Sea The Stars, Dancing Brave, Pebbles, Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef all at least 5 lbs clear of Golden Horn and all of them subsequently enhanced their reputations (and possibly ratings too but I don't follow ratings that closely, prefer to rely on my eyes and the form book)
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Comfortably beat the world class and consistent The Grey Gatsby , quickening away after a ding dong battle.
Jack Hobbs dotted up in Ireland from the 3rd and 4th in the Derby. Fully deserving of a high rating. Thank goodness we have not got another Kris Kin , Shaamit , Erhaab .......... |
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See: Sprinter Sacre
Impressive performances, against not so impressive opposition, seem to get higher and higher ratings in recent years. Media headlines and media chat attract free publicity and therefore more revenue for Ratings companies. (It's like those (online) IQ tests where everyone gets a huge score and then ushered to sign up/pay with us for more info) |
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130 and on a par with frankel
its no wonder that nobody takes their ratings seriously |
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I presume you are not referring to The Grey Gatsby as 'not so impressive opposition' ?
The most ludicrous one was Master Minded's insane Champion Chase mark. What on earth would Badsworth Boy have got for an almost double winning margin over the previous years champ . |
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TGG is a solid horse, worth taking his place in any 1m 2f group 1 race imo but to rate GH at 130 for the manner and distance that he beat TGG is fantasy land imo
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The Grey Gatsby: 3 (unfancied) wins from 14 (since it's debut)
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3yo's first half season ratings are unreliable, and plus real champions stay in training as 4yo to confirm their ratings. When GH will beat a 5xG1 winner by 5 lengths at the end of July then I'll believe he's capable of at least 130, until then he's just another flash in the pan.
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What ratings did Dancing Brave pulling well away from Tryptych, Nashwan smashing Indian Skimmer and Warning
and Brig Gerard in the mud, get? |
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"taking a line" through a horse is a fundamentally flawed approach to handicapping
I am not a private handicapper but the BHA marks would be the last place I would look for ratings |
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as said all methods of measuring ability have limitations, but why do you consider collateral ratings to be 'fundamentally flawed'
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Frankel rating is the one after the Eclipse, not the final one, obviously, but Frankel would still be on the bit while Golden Horn, was 'quickening twice' as I've heard some pre-pubescent pundits say recently, imo...
Frankel never ran in the Eclipse. Surely you mean 130 was allotted to Frankel after the 2000G? He then went on to beat Zoffany a half length beating and stayed on 130. Only when he beat Canford Cliffs was he upped to 135. You can`t mock Golden Horn being rated 130. The Derby form is probably close to 130, where was Frankel in his Derby?  |
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sixtwosix
sixtwosix 07 Jul 15 14:15 Joined: 23 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 13,964 | Blogger: sixtwosix's blog Comfortably beat the world class and consistent The Grey Gatsby , quickening away after a ding dong battle. World class my @rse |
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not all horses run to their form on any given occasion - the track, distance, going, weather, hormones (especially for fillies/mares), jockey, fitness are all variables which will have an influence, therefore when you are taking TWO or more horses then you are multiplying the variables - i'd say something close to fundamentally flawed
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You can`t mock Golden Horn being rated 130. The Derby form is probably close to 130,
some of us indeed are and time will tell |
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western hymn - 1 x G2, 3 x G3
cougar mountain - no group wins the grey gatsby - 2 x G1, 1 x G2 (incidentally all when ridden by ryan moore) tullius - 1 x G2, 1 x G3 all decent horses but proven highly beatable and defeating them does not warrant 130 and beating jack hobbs (twice), storm the stars and giovanni cannaletto doesn't either that being said many derby winners never win another race, so he's better than many |
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rider...it works exactly how I explained, all you have done is repeated the method for all horses in the race
you haven't even considered how the race was run, sectional times etc that is what I am talking about when I said there is a lot more evidence available in a race than using 1 horse's rating as a guide I don't dispute the figures you have put up...hope you can see how 1 dimensional they are |