Kodi Bear is a cert

Not but I reckon the next one will lose.

Urban Castle loses. naturally.

Like I say, lay the racers out in a grid and tick em off. You'll get the idea. After all although not as smart as me, youre pretty good.

i can predict you will have a better spell than last week

100% going to happen

but you will never predict these sprees to enough accuracy

i'm in the genius club too, where's my badge

leave you to it, we are going round and round and round as usual, i'm sure most will have their own view on this.

If I PM you you'll see the data. I wont post it on here cos there's pages of it.

Pick 2 random months any time in the past 10 years.

if u can convert strid......u can convert anyone

I'll have a go ... !

how about july and august 2015

now youre just being silly

2moros will do me

no i'm not i'm saying post your predictions over july and august on 1 thread

i'd want 3-6 months but that will do

must be very stressful this system.....lex

I do agree with you though. What youre saying is that you cant predict the top and bottom of the cycle. Thats true. But the point is that it works within known bounds. So you know when its likely to start and end. Hence Kodi Bear won but the next one did in fact lose. Then I said the next few would lose and they did. The cycle is currently returning to mean.

Sometimes it can be stressful. My biggest prob is that I tend to chase. Which is so stupid but I get bored. I do it for fun, get a buzz and eventually make a bit of dosh.
The whole things fascinates me, and has done for many years.

BTW its not so much predictions, just the watching of the results and how they fit this  pattern.

Total and utter tosh of the very highest order

thank you. Im honored that you have taken the time to post a most valued critique.

You will notice that the last series of 10 favs has been losers compared with the previuous 10 which havnt. Voilà !

Favs are only 13 points in front now.

Ya Latiff the hot odds-on jolly loses. In the last series of 10 only one fav. Huntsmans Close.

Compared to 7 favs in the previous series of 10.
It rare to get more than 7 favs in a series. There has never been 10 conseq favs in uk. The mean reverts every 3-5(max) days with a favs sr of 35% all codes with an average ISP of 2.75

you lay all of them 7 though

then when on the recoup some of the ones that go on to lose wont even be layed at your reduced rate in running

16:45 Curragh War Envoy (yes ok its heavy backed and odds on) it likely to break the sequence but it will resume after.

if you state your rules clearly i will run a test over thousands of races going back 2/3 years

just clearly state your rules and i will do all the necessary on a spread sheet.

Im laying as close to or below ISP dont forget. I have explained why and how many times previously.

That is the only rule; and the only thing that matters (Obviously laying below the statistical chance) .
Its the monitoring of the cycle that I use to help 'predict' the next outcome.

yes and you wont catch all the lays in running

but you pay out all the losers (winners) 100% guaranteed

you didn't explain anything about your so called manipulation, you have introduced it as though its fact and it clearly does not happen

Yeah I have, many times.
You can straight lay, lay more than more than one or trade. anything to reduce the liability.
favs

War Envoy loses. always a bonus

i could pm you a system regarding a obrien and that last fav beaten that would have predicted that with data going back 7 years and a few hundred runners.

the explanation in this sytem would have been based on a suggestion a certain subset of his lto winners will be under priced nto.

there is a logic to this

there is no logic that it lost because the pattern of recent favs suggested so!

lay more than one what?

why did you lay 12/13 on the bounce that day when your logic suggested there should have been a pattern reset?

As I say, some favs beat the cycle so to speak. Like Kodi Bear. But they dont all run to their price of course.
BTW its only laying favs cos they have the least liability. The cycles apply to all price bands.
You cant do the same thing backing unfortunatley because it very operationally difficult to get value backing.

I laid 12 or so favs simply cos thats what I do. I lay all favs. Joint favs but not co-favs.

what in your opinion is the average expected streak of laying favs

2,3,4 races ?

sorry dont understand the question

do you mean the average losing run for favs?

yes

we know approx 1 in 3 will win year in year out at BFSP

well its got to equate to the average price of the winners eg 2.75.

Log(RUNS) / -Log(PROB) will give you the longest likely sequence around 28 or so. I ve seen 53 a few years back.

so if you get a seq or 6/4 2/1 3/1 then youre 6.5 points down. lay at below ISP and youre back in the black after 6.

i want to know your average.

you are happy to think a pattern will reset if 7/10 favs win because its hitting over twice the average


yet you will happily try to lay all the favs despite your logic suggesting you should get to a point where there are due to be winning favs

use 2.5% of your bank and aim for about 15% below ISP. but dont do what I do and chase. But then I am an evil mad genius.

My average is THE average. I lay all of them dont forget.

thats what i am saying

you are trying to lay them all even when the law of short run averages (which doesn't hold in any case!) deems you should stop laying

yet backing wise you think because the pattern hits twice its average things are due to swing in your favour

do you not see the obvious flaw here?

law of short run averages (which doesn't hold in any case!)

I wont go into the maths, but google double mean revertion.

reversion LOL

lex i have a degree in economics with modules in maths and statistics thanks very much

i am trying to dumb this down to get to why it makes no sense

obviously you can predict a distribution around the average but there will be enough variations to make this useless in trying to predict short run patterns of favs.

You can't dumb it down enuf for me ! so please do show me how I'm wrong and my bank balance is far greater than it should be.

Lex

If this works for you then good on ya but given the inconsistency of sequences of favs winning/losing and if laying at 15% less than ISP where you will remain unmatched and missing out on winning lays on a number of times then has to be plenty of times where you are chasing big time or perhaps I'm missing something.

Lets say 10 favs win in a row then the next 10 lose but you only manage to get matched on say 5 based on 15% under ISP which is possible and this sequence continues shirley your bank would face extinction?

you can't say 7/10 favs have won so they are due to turn in your favour

yet you've layed all of them in the meantime waiting

and then you will continue to lay past the rules you are using with averages (in the backing sense)

5:20-Curragh Hasanour  is very likely to lose.

Dont get hung up on the unmatched thing. Sure youre right; but I dont get unmatched very often as I have tried to explain.

marko ive said that about a million times

ok so the rules are...

i try to lay every fav at BFSP-10%

BFSP -10% = ISP ; ish is actually 11%

he lays at BFSP. I dont believe that is sustainable.

If it is, then he has that very rare thing, a system that works. But his rules change as he goes. (Not like mine of course )

whatever you say you can't lay 28 on the bounce

and on the other hand be convinced your pattern will change enough times in your favour based on the short run after a few races

these things are in total conflict (not that the logic has any foundation anyhow, as i have said regarding random distribution)

striding

Using your stats from 2008, what is the percentage of favs that have traded at 10% under ISP? You would think it would be high given its favs but I would take a guess at it being around 75%-80%?

Lex, how do the rules change as it goes?

whatever you say you can't lay 28 on the bounce  - you can if they all lose!

What you mean is you can lay a mixed sequence.
Yes you can, if you have youre staking right. 2.5% of your bank is about right.

it depends what his criteria are

your logic statistically is completely flawed

and your view that its all down to manipulation rather than random distribution is well off

false assumptions and not a cat in hells chance they would yield profits.

i will run a test and see what happens trying to lay every fav at -11%

yes but you are predicting pattern shifts after 10 races

but will lay everything when  after 7/8 successful lays you should be stopping using your logic of averages

Marko's rules change. He says he uses a fixed system of two sets of different filters. I dont believe he does.

My rles dont change. Lay 'em all at ISP or below where ever possible using the methods I have already explained. Whilst keeping an eye of the cycle.

Lex 27 Jun 15 17:13 Joined: 27 Oct 03 | Topic/replies: 2,323 | Blogger: Lex's blog
5:20-Curragh Hasanour  is very likely to lose.


OOPS

This is like talking to Spock !

Its illogical Captn!

for fecks sake Spocky - just press the friggin button!

What do you believe lex? I just make them up ???

dont you see how this sounds

on the one hand i predict shifts on 10 races

but on the other hand i will continue to lay when these patterns blow the expected averages out of the water

you know i dont agree the averages are of any use but i am trying to say that what logic you are putting forward doesn't even make sense.

at least marko sticks his on here consistently

you pop up when you think one of your shifts is due after doing yer ball-as the rest of the week sometimes

I didnt say "I predict 10 race shifts" I explained the comparision of two 10 race sequences and how it evens out.

Hi ya Marko How you doing?

Of course I do! can you imagine a days racing each one with a fav wins then a fav loses? blimey I'm not Zipper you know!

Doing great lex, care to elucidate your findings on how i change my rules?

july-sept

i will set up a spread sheet and run this test BFSP-11%

i will then no doubt start to see all these little additions to try and make it work

probably end up shaking hands with our chum martin gale

Nope. No point. You do what you do. And  I get slagged off. Oh wait .... you get slagged off too!

lex thats being picky

you pop up here often after one of your patterns of a few races and claim a selection based on these patterns, that is predicting!

BFSP-11%

Do one for ISP. its not the same consistently

Lex, not having a go, you stated i change my rules but you have nothing to back it up, I'm just asking why you think that......

Is it because you cant fathom it out?

strid has a degree in mathmatics, marko is an accoountant, lex is a evil genius..............and me......i dont even have 1 gcse..........what chance have i got

freddie

you are the probably the smartest one

I did fathom it out and then it changed. I followed the original thread very closely. Bloody good tipping Mark.

Freddie - youre a legendary bookie..

ok LEX

we'll see how it goes, i'll use £100 matched in running values on the timeformprices

You never figured it out, you made sugegstions that were wrong, the rules have never changed since posting months ago - the only thing that ever changed at times was the recordings as win only/ place only/ one a day etc but the selections and how they were derived have been constant- you fishing kirk?

Nah. I leave that to others. Lets leave it that I never figured it out then.

you never though lad!!!

Quick ? for you, if say you are trying to lay every single fav at 10% under ISP, for those that you miss out on do you apply a small incremnet to next stake to recover?

* increment

marko i've got a nice breakdown for you now will post tomorrow

didn't know you were an accountant you could have done it yourself

Yes sometimes I do. You may remember that other nutter VDW and his staking plan. Its similar to that. Raise stakes very slightly (not martins gale ! ) to compensate over the long term.Once I'm in profit I reset the stake. Like ratchet staking.

What I would predict is tomorrow is going to be great for layers! (kiss of death..)

Striding. dont forget I get matched most of the time not the 25% or so that the timeform data shows..

and you need to beat ISP to make it work nicely. else you spend ages with the wheels spinning.

i can only run it on timeform data lex

100 matched, you are not going to be the one who gets matched enough below that figure anyhow surely?

Indeed Striding but I didn't want to get in the way of your enthusiasm of doing this besides another set of eyes on the data could produce something else with more potential, I'm very hopeful that the system will perform well place laying...

okay, thanks for the chat. Its been a horrible day and tomorrow will be a lot better. Good luck you lot, have fun.

Just out of curiosity Lex, how much are you laying?

lex if i assume you get matched 95% of the time it's obviously going to be good for you

yes have a good evening lex

just proves we can have a bit of banter without the bloodbath a lot of these threads end up in

I'm only a small player. Like I say, its all just for fun. I rarely have a liability of more than a few 100. But it suppliments the old pension so I'm happy.

yeah you to Striding. I reckon we have just bored everyone to death and they cant be arsed to comment !

Lovely, lovely day at Windsor under fantastic skies. Sadly for me, Kodi Bear didn't lose. I was on the Doyler in a first 4 races accumulator. 200/1. Nearly.

Yay! Logout Island loses!

Nite.