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18 Jun 15
19:46
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Date Joined:
04 Jun 12
A superb opportunity appears to have arisen here.
The market is headed by the poorly priced Stravagante who has already drifted markedly, for a trainer who has done nothing all week. He bolted up in just a fair handicap off 89 but its hard to forget he was beaten 12 lengths by a proper horse in Jack Hobbs previously and there has to be serious question marks regarding his class for a Group 2. He has also never looked like a 1m4 horse and I very mouch doubt he will get this trip well enough here, has to be taken on in my opinion.
Ol Man River was a bit of a talking horse this season with regards the Derby after an impressive win in the Beresford as a 2yo, but he has shown nothing in 2 starts and is priced up purely on connections and jockey here. He is a son of Montjeu out of the mile filly Finsceal Beo who just about got 1m2, so while he has a chance of staying, there has to be a doubt and you would need the faith of Marvin Andrews to back him at this price on what he has shown this season. Despite that, given the stable form, jockey, previous potential shown and a possibility of staying, he is probably the one I fear most.
Balios is a son of Shamardal who does not produce proper 1m4 horses, he ran a nice race at Newmarket last time but I think you seen what he is there, a decent 1m2 horse, I cant have him getting home over this trip at Ascot.
Festive Fare had the speed to easily win a handicap over 1m at Kempton earlier in the season, he ran a decent enough race in the Fieldin but the winner has left that form well and truly behind since and Festive Fare has a small mountain to climb here. He is by the trip versatile sire Teofilo but his dam was a miler and I wouldnt want any part of him at further than 10f.
Magic Dancer is a typical Norse Dancer colt, average in ability and best at short of 12f, he could try to steal the race if Father Christmas isnt there to make the running but I cant see him getting home well enough and I dont think he has the quality in any case.
Father Christmas is an American bred half brother to Michelmas, he does not appear to have the form and im hoping he is there to make it a proper test.
Which leave Mr Singh, potentially the only 1m4 horse in the race and the reason why I think this is an outstanding bet. He is by a proper stallion for a race like this in High Chaparral. The dam Sundari, by Danehill out of a Sir Ivor mare, was a 6f and 1m winner as a 2yo, but she is a half sister to 10f, 12f and 14f winners, and also a half sister to mares who have produced plenty of 12f horses. Not only is the pedigree there, the visual impression of Mr Singh is that he is crying out for a test like this. The maiden he won over 11f at Newbury is the same race connections won with last years winner Eagle Top, and the form has been franked by the 2nd Scottish, winning a maiden and running a blinder off 91 at Ascot today, and the 3rd Fabricate, who went on to beat Yarrow in a maiden, win a handicap well of 87 and is fancied for the Queens Vase tomorrow. You have to forgive his last run of course but thats why you are getting this potentially insane price, I dont think he liked the course or the track that day and he ran a nicer race than his finishing position suggests. I think tomorrow back on fast ground he leaves that well behind and wins this race in the style of a nice horse.
The market is headed by the poorly priced Stravagante who has already drifted markedly, for a trainer who has done nothing all week. He bolted up in just a fair handicap off 89 but its hard to forget he was beaten 12 lengths by a proper horse in Jack Hobbs previously and there has to be serious question marks regarding his class for a Group 2. He has also never looked like a 1m4 horse and I very mouch doubt he will get this trip well enough here, has to be taken on in my opinion.
Ol Man River was a bit of a talking horse this season with regards the Derby after an impressive win in the Beresford as a 2yo, but he has shown nothing in 2 starts and is priced up purely on connections and jockey here. He is a son of Montjeu out of the mile filly Finsceal Beo who just about got 1m2, so while he has a chance of staying, there has to be a doubt and you would need the faith of Marvin Andrews to back him at this price on what he has shown this season. Despite that, given the stable form, jockey, previous potential shown and a possibility of staying, he is probably the one I fear most.
Balios is a son of Shamardal who does not produce proper 1m4 horses, he ran a nice race at Newmarket last time but I think you seen what he is there, a decent 1m2 horse, I cant have him getting home over this trip at Ascot.
Festive Fare had the speed to easily win a handicap over 1m at Kempton earlier in the season, he ran a decent enough race in the Fieldin but the winner has left that form well and truly behind since and Festive Fare has a small mountain to climb here. He is by the trip versatile sire Teofilo but his dam was a miler and I wouldnt want any part of him at further than 10f.
Magic Dancer is a typical Norse Dancer colt, average in ability and best at short of 12f, he could try to steal the race if Father Christmas isnt there to make the running but I cant see him getting home well enough and I dont think he has the quality in any case.
Father Christmas is an American bred half brother to Michelmas, he does not appear to have the form and im hoping he is there to make it a proper test.
Which leave Mr Singh, potentially the only 1m4 horse in the race and the reason why I think this is an outstanding bet. He is by a proper stallion for a race like this in High Chaparral. The dam Sundari, by Danehill out of a Sir Ivor mare, was a 6f and 1m winner as a 2yo, but she is a half sister to 10f, 12f and 14f winners, and also a half sister to mares who have produced plenty of 12f horses. Not only is the pedigree there, the visual impression of Mr Singh is that he is crying out for a test like this. The maiden he won over 11f at Newbury is the same race connections won with last years winner Eagle Top, and the form has been franked by the 2nd Scottish, winning a maiden and running a blinder off 91 at Ascot today, and the 3rd Fabricate, who went on to beat Yarrow in a maiden, win a handicap well of 87 and is fancied for the Queens Vase tomorrow. You have to forgive his last run of course but thats why you are getting this potentially insane price, I dont think he liked the course or the track that day and he ran a nicer race than his finishing position suggests. I think tomorrow back on fast ground he leaves that well behind and wins this race in the style of a nice horse.
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King Edward 3.05
at the end should read "course or the ground", not course or track!
at the end should read "course or the ground", not course or track!
so you going from 20 full bank bollax sh1te to a 10 page essay? fdc
be interested to see whether the market still wholeheartedly disagrees with me at 3.00 tomorrow
Well done for the decent write up, win or lose, a good assessment for people to consider their options.
If you could lose the ridiculous posts, there is every chance that your credibility would improve, whether this one wins or not, it is the effort that people like to see and appreciate, the absurd claims and mocking nature are what annoy people.
If you could lose the ridiculous posts, there is every chance that your credibility would improve, whether this one wins or not, it is the effort that people like to see and appreciate, the absurd claims and mocking nature are what annoy people.
no, but fortunately for you there are some proper fckwits who know jack about racing who make you look intelligent lol
ill try to gradually phase out the ridiculous sensationalism, could be dangerous to go cold turkey
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