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I could not agree more.
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I make it 77
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Off on a tangent here, onlooker, but how has the handicapper rated Rive Gauche 97 while the one that beat her lto, Lovely Surprise, is rated 82? If he is anywhere near right about Rive they are risking Lovely Surprises mark tomorrow.
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evening, saddo.
The Rive Gauche 97 is NOT from the Lovely Surprise race at Nottingham - - But from it's previous 2nd to Sperry at York - where it was 4th, a neck behind the 98-rated Realta, who had been raised to 98 from 93 for winning a handicap at Doncaster in it's race prior to York. Realta then ran reasonably close to that 98 rating when beaten just over 2 lengths in the Surrey Stakes at Epsom. Rive Gauche's subsequent race - when 2nd to Lovely Surprise - is, at this stage, impossible to asses by ANYBODY - given the lack of Form surrounding the finishers. Lovely Surprise had on it's previous run finished 2nd to Melodious, in a Maiden that has 'not set the world alight'. Melodious then won a 6-runner Handicap next time out, off the 76 that it had been awarded for beating Lovely Surprise. You could not get Melodious above 80 for that Handicap win, if that, and it has been beaten over 7 lengths, off 81, since. That, therefore, would/could give you a 78 rating for Lovely Surprise - the Official Handicapper has erred on the side of caution, and awarded it 82. Lovely Surprise beat Rive Gauche, in a Maiden, at Nottingham - where Rive Gauche could have run nowhere near it's 97 rating from York - probably due to the much SLOWER ground at Nottingham. As I said - Both previous and subsequent Form for that Nottingham race is 'thin on the ground' - with only the 5 lengths 3rd, Lemoncetta, and 7th having run since. Lemoncetta was subsequently beaten a similar distance - Length and a half and 6 lengths in a slowly run 6-runner race at Salisbury. If we - or anybody - were to take the Rive Gauche rating of 97 as absolute for the Lovely Surprise Nottingham race ... Then everything in the slowly run Nottingham and Salisbury races are ALL quite good - and in the 90s and 80s. Clearly that cannot be the case. The Nottingham, and Salisbury, races are both still indeterminate - and that is what you get from races with lightly raced contenders - a more definitive figure can only be applied to such races retrospectively - IF, ever at all. ----------- You have made a very good spot. ![]() Using an absolute Rive Gauche rating - then you can claim that Lovely Surprise is thrown-in - and the York contenders Realta, Rive Gauche, and Mother's Finest are handicapped to the hilt. However - using Melodious - Lovely Surprise is around 4lb over-handicapped at 82 ... but lightly-raced, so open to improvement. That is always the scenario with lightly-raced contenders in 3-yr-old only Handicaps - Many of them are not much different to 2-yr-old Nurseries, at this stage of the season. |
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Lovely surprise is running 11lb wrong tho
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Even better spot.
![]() Racing Post card showing it as 82 instead of running off 93. Above still applies, though - Ismail Mohammed must be taking the Nottingham race at face value - or the owner wants his day out at Ascot - this being the only horse he has entered there this week. |