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You cant make money from blindly backing or laying favourites so how do we distinguish a good fav from a bad fav?
Where do we look first? Form? Yes that applies sometimes but typically its hit miss and as a layer you always want to be laying at the lowest possible price.
Can we use stats? If these are proven over a long period of time then surely that trend will continue...
Will try a simple exercise today, not betting, merely a watching brief and see if stats can determine a good un from a bad un.....
For each race will apply filters to determine its chances of winning as a percentage!!!
First Race
1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK
Where do we look first? Form? Yes that applies sometimes but typically its hit miss and as a layer you always want to be laying at the lowest possible price.
Can we use stats? If these are proven over a long period of time then surely that trend will continue...
Will try a simple exercise today, not betting, merely a watching brief and see if stats can determine a good un from a bad un.....
For each race will apply filters to determine its chances of winning as a percentage!!!
First Race
1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK
Show More
2:00 Doncaster - Paris Snow 70% - BACK
2:15 Salisbury - Slip Sliding Away 70% - BACK
Desert Command 80% - BACK
2:15 Salisbury - Slip Sliding Away 70% - BACK
Desert Command 80% - BACK
2:25 Cork - Gift Wrap 10% - LAY
2:30 Doncaster - Dark Avenger 30% - LAY
2:30 Doncaster - Dark Avenger 30% - LAY
1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK - BSP 1.92 WINS
Marko since time began favs win 33% of the time ..you ok with that
but good favs win 71 % of the time
bum favs win 29 % of the time
but good favs win 71 % of the time
bum favs win 29 % of the time
I bet we're all hoping that zippy enlightens us to what makes a good and a bad favourite !
Unless it's the finishing result, that is.
Unless it's the finishing result, that is.
2:40 Downpatrick - Moonmeister 29% - Lay
Little Rocky 29% - Lay
2:50 Salisbury - Lilian Baylis 40% - Lay
Blond Me 30$ - Lay
Little Rocky 29% - Lay
2:50 Salisbury - Lilian Baylis 40% - Lay
Blond Me 30$ - Lay
2:55 Cork - Ostatnia 33% - Lay
Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay
Zunera 29% - Lay
A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay
Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay
Zunera 29% - Lay
A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay
2:15 Salisbury - Slip Sliding Away 70% - BACK - NR
Desert Command 80% - BACK - BSP 3.00 WINS (Rule 4 applies)
Desert Command 80% - BACK - BSP 3.00 WINS (Rule 4 applies)
3:15 Downpatrick - Feel The Air 33% - Lay
Autumn Shades 29% - Lay
Zanouska 29% - Lay
Autumn Shades 29% - Lay
Zanouska 29% - Lay
3:25 Salisbury - Bella Lulu 50% - No Bet
Lemoncetta 40% - Lay
Iconic 50% - No Bet
Lemoncetta 40% - Lay
Iconic 50% - No Bet
2:40 Downpatrick - Moonmeister 29% - Lay - BSP 2.78 Wins
Little Rocky 29% - Lay - BSP 2.34 beat
Joint favs despite the BSP being 2.34 V 2.78
Little Rocky 29% - Lay - BSP 2.34 beat
Joint favs despite the BSP being 2.34 V 2.78
2:55 Cork - Ostatnia 33% - Lay - BSP 3.55 wins
Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay
Zunera 29% - Lay
A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay
Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay
Zunera 29% - Lay
A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay
2:50 Salisbury - Lilian Baylis 40% - Lay
Blond Me 30$ - Lay - BSP 3.00 WINS
6/8 favs won so far today
Blond Me 30$ - Lay - BSP 3.00 WINS
6/8 favs won so far today
marko69 now your getting the hang of things remember months ago I said your good but I can make you better
the offer is still there pm me
the offer is still there pm me
zipper
do reveal all here then we can all see what expertise you have to offer?
do reveal all here then we can all see what expertise you have to offer?
Jesus it's not rocket science,Hannon,Channon,bad favs,Gosden Stoute good favs.
Jun 14, 2015 -- 6:27PM, posy wrote:
What's the outcome of today's experiment ?
Really? You would judge something after a single day? 
A bad fav could be an all the way last time out winner - easy lead - but this time may be taken on for the lead
Could be an off the pace winner given a few front runners but now no pace
Could be the draw
Could be trainer out of form
The list is endless my friend
Could be an off the pace winner given a few front runners but now no pace
Could be the draw
Could be trainer out of form
The list is endless my friend
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