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You cant make money from blindly backing or laying favourites so how do we distinguish a good fav from a bad fav?
Where do we look first? Form? Yes that applies sometimes but typically its hit miss and as a layer you always want to be laying at the lowest possible price.
Can we use stats? If these are proven over a long period of time then surely that trend will continue...
Will try a simple exercise today, not betting, merely a watching brief and see if stats can determine a good un from a bad un.....
For each race will apply filters to determine its chances of winning as a percentage!!!
First Race
1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK
Where do we look first? Form? Yes that applies sometimes but typically its hit miss and as a layer you always want to be laying at the lowest possible price.
Can we use stats? If these are proven over a long period of time then surely that trend will continue...
Will try a simple exercise today, not betting, merely a watching brief and see if stats can determine a good un from a bad un.....
For each race will apply filters to determine its chances of winning as a percentage!!!
First Race
1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK
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Replies: 29
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2:00 Doncaster - Paris Snow 70% - BACK
2:15 Salisbury - Slip Sliding Away 70% - BACK Desert Command 80% - BACK |
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2:25 Cork - Gift Wrap 10% - LAY
2:30 Doncaster - Dark Avenger 30% - LAY |
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1:45 Salisbury - Elysian Fields 70% - BACK - BSP 1.92 WINS
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Marko since time began favs win 33% of the time ..you ok with that
but good favs win 71 % of the time bum favs win 29 % of the time |
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I bet we're all hoping that zippy enlightens us to what makes a good and a bad favourite !
Unless it's the finishing result, that is.  |
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2:40 Downpatrick - Moonmeister 29% - Lay
Little Rocky 29% - Lay 2:50 Salisbury - Lilian Baylis 40% - Lay Blond Me 30$ - Lay |
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WFT
Most likely he will tell us after the race  |
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2:00 Doncaster - Paris Snow 70% - BACK - BSP 2.00 WINS
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2:55 Cork - Ostatnia 33% - Lay
Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay Zunera 29% - Lay A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay |
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3:05 Doncaster - Monotype 30% - Lay
Stubbins 40% - Lay |
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2:15 Salisbury - Slip Sliding Away 70% - BACK - NR
Desert Command 80% - BACK - BSP 3.00 WINS (Rule 4 applies) |
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Seems they are all good favs so far,Wd
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3:15 Downpatrick - Feel The Air 33% - Lay
Autumn Shades 29% - Lay Zanouska 29% - Lay |
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2:25 Cork - Gift Wrap 10% - LAY - BSP 1.76 Beat
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2:30 Doncaster - Dark Avenger 30% - LAY - BSP 2.22 beat
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3:25 Salisbury - Bella Lulu 50% - No Bet
Lemoncetta 40% - Lay Iconic 50% - No Bet |
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3:30 Cork - Monsieur Joe 33% - Lay
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2:40 Downpatrick - Moonmeister 29% - Lay - BSP 2.78 Wins
Little Rocky 29% - Lay - BSP 2.34 beat Joint favs despite the BSP being 2.34 V 2.78 |
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2:55 Cork - Ostatnia 33% - Lay - BSP 3.55 wins
 Anonymous Lady 29% - Lay Zunera 29% - Lay A Few Dollars More 33% - Lay |
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2:50 Salisbury - Lilian Baylis 40% - Lay
Blond Me 30$ - Lay - BSP 3.00 WINS  6/8 favs won so far today |
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marko69 now your getting the hang of things remember months ago I said your good but I can make you better
the offer is still there pm me |
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zipper
do reveal all here then we can all see what expertise you have to offer? |
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Dear oh dear
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after those last 3 favs winning we all ned a good laugh
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Jesus it's not rocket science,Hannon,Channon,bad favs,Gosden Stoute good favs.
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What's the outcome of today's experiment ?
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A bad fav could be an all the way last time out winner - easy lead - but this time may be taken on for the lead
Could be an off the pace winner given a few front runners but now no pace Could be the draw Could be trainer out of form The list is endless my friend |
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zipper 14 Jun 15 15:06
marko69 now your getting the hang of things remember months ago I said your good but I can make you better the offer is still there pm me grooming attempt..zipper wants to watch marko backscuttling susan.. |
