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12 Jun 15
10:25
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Date Joined:
04 Jun 12
Wardat Dubai
I loved her debut run at HQ last season, travelling comfortably on the heels of some decent colts with nowhere to go, she made a nice move on the outside once in the clear before flattening out, only beaten a length in 5th. You might think there is reason to doubt the form with the first 5 finishing within a length of each other but there was no suggestion of a falsely run race. The winner of that race went on to run second in the Racing Post, the 2nd ran Golden Horn to a hd next time out and finished 3rd in the Derby this season. The 4rth has since run 2nd in whats looking a half decent maiden and was not disgraced in a listed race. The 6th, 3 1/2L behind Wardat Dubai, had previously ran 3rd in that decent Doncaster maiden and the 7th Mubtaahij, had previously ran not far behind Consort and went on to clean up in Dubai before contesting the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. The 8th, beaten 12 lengths won a HQ maiden next time and 9th also picked up a maiden just a few days ago. On her second start, she ran 3rd behind the impressive Pamona, it looked disappointing but im convinced she did not like the soft ground, the two fillies who finished in front of her that day ran 3rd and 4rth in the Newbury Oaks trial this season and the winner could run in the Ribblesdale so it wasnt a disgrace in any case. I expected her to win first time out this season back on fast ground but the race turned into a bit of a sprint and she couldnt get to the two who sat 1st and 2nd from start to finish.
The filly is from the first crop of Mawatheeq, he has not had a lot of success so far but its hardly surprising, he never made it to the track until he was 3yo and didnt peak until into his 4yo season, and he probably hasnt had the best quality of mares to work with. From the few modest winners he has had so far, most of them have come at 10f and 12f, and I expected Wardat Dubai to be running at these sort of trips this season, so was surprised to see her start out at 7f. She is a half sister to the smart Felwah for who 7f appears to be optimal, but she is by Aqlaam who had a lot more speed than Mawatheeq. The dam Efisios Star is a half sister to Lady Gloria, who was a Group 3 winner at 10f, and the decent 1m4 filly Pivotal Silence, so there is reason to believe on both sides of the pedigree that Wardat Dubai could be a middle distance filly.
I think the step up back up to a mile has to suit her and I believe her two main opponents tonight are beatable. Barreesh ran a good race first time in the Wood Ditton but that wasnt a particularly strongly run race, the form has been hit and miss and its possible he was flattered on the day, he looked a bit one paced as well. He was slow away last time and ran a decent race considering but again he looked one paced at the business end and he does not look like repaying the 300k spent on him, its also a worry that he has been gelded already. To me the track will not play to his strengths and its debatable how much quality he actually has but dont get me wrong, he shouldnt be far away in this company. Russian Reward has been going ok, he caught the eye running on for 3rd after being outpaced behind a nice one on debut at Windsor, he ran well for a long way at Newbury but he appeared to have a gilt edged chance at Wolverhampton last time and was caught by a newcomer. He looks solid and seems to have a bit more speed than the Hannon horse but im not sure about him getting the mile well enough and im not convinced he is progressing much either.
I do not have the same belief in Wardat Dubai after her last two defeats but there was a time when I would have made her an odds on shot to account for these two, and I still retain enough to think she is a good bet at 5/1 tonight. Maybe she just doesnt have the scope and has not progressed, she is not the biggest, but I was sure I seen ability in her and im hoping everything is right for her to show it tonight. If not, I will have to re-evaluate her, but it looks a really good opportunity to me and a very fair price considering.
I loved her debut run at HQ last season, travelling comfortably on the heels of some decent colts with nowhere to go, she made a nice move on the outside once in the clear before flattening out, only beaten a length in 5th. You might think there is reason to doubt the form with the first 5 finishing within a length of each other but there was no suggestion of a falsely run race. The winner of that race went on to run second in the Racing Post, the 2nd ran Golden Horn to a hd next time out and finished 3rd in the Derby this season. The 4rth has since run 2nd in whats looking a half decent maiden and was not disgraced in a listed race. The 6th, 3 1/2L behind Wardat Dubai, had previously ran 3rd in that decent Doncaster maiden and the 7th Mubtaahij, had previously ran not far behind Consort and went on to clean up in Dubai before contesting the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. The 8th, beaten 12 lengths won a HQ maiden next time and 9th also picked up a maiden just a few days ago. On her second start, she ran 3rd behind the impressive Pamona, it looked disappointing but im convinced she did not like the soft ground, the two fillies who finished in front of her that day ran 3rd and 4rth in the Newbury Oaks trial this season and the winner could run in the Ribblesdale so it wasnt a disgrace in any case. I expected her to win first time out this season back on fast ground but the race turned into a bit of a sprint and she couldnt get to the two who sat 1st and 2nd from start to finish.
The filly is from the first crop of Mawatheeq, he has not had a lot of success so far but its hardly surprising, he never made it to the track until he was 3yo and didnt peak until into his 4yo season, and he probably hasnt had the best quality of mares to work with. From the few modest winners he has had so far, most of them have come at 10f and 12f, and I expected Wardat Dubai to be running at these sort of trips this season, so was surprised to see her start out at 7f. She is a half sister to the smart Felwah for who 7f appears to be optimal, but she is by Aqlaam who had a lot more speed than Mawatheeq. The dam Efisios Star is a half sister to Lady Gloria, who was a Group 3 winner at 10f, and the decent 1m4 filly Pivotal Silence, so there is reason to believe on both sides of the pedigree that Wardat Dubai could be a middle distance filly.
I think the step up back up to a mile has to suit her and I believe her two main opponents tonight are beatable. Barreesh ran a good race first time in the Wood Ditton but that wasnt a particularly strongly run race, the form has been hit and miss and its possible he was flattered on the day, he looked a bit one paced as well. He was slow away last time and ran a decent race considering but again he looked one paced at the business end and he does not look like repaying the 300k spent on him, its also a worry that he has been gelded already. To me the track will not play to his strengths and its debatable how much quality he actually has but dont get me wrong, he shouldnt be far away in this company. Russian Reward has been going ok, he caught the eye running on for 3rd after being outpaced behind a nice one on debut at Windsor, he ran well for a long way at Newbury but he appeared to have a gilt edged chance at Wolverhampton last time and was caught by a newcomer. He looks solid and seems to have a bit more speed than the Hannon horse but im not sure about him getting the mile well enough and im not convinced he is progressing much either.
I do not have the same belief in Wardat Dubai after her last two defeats but there was a time when I would have made her an odds on shot to account for these two, and I still retain enough to think she is a good bet at 5/1 tonight. Maybe she just doesnt have the scope and has not progressed, she is not the biggest, but I was sure I seen ability in her and im hoping everything is right for her to show it tonight. If not, I will have to re-evaluate her, but it looks a really good opportunity to me and a very fair price considering.
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Sadly she was non runner last time due to the rain I think as the top 2 were in fact beaten in the race.
Had an easier opportunity today and done it nicely in the end, she really ought to have been about 2/5 rather than 4/5. I would really like to see her step up to 1m2+.
Had an easier opportunity today and done it nicely in the end, she really ought to have been about 2/5 rather than 4/5. I would really like to see her step up to 1m2+.
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