Belmont Stakes thoughts.....

Can American Pharaoh get it done?

The last horse to complete the triple crown was Affirmed in 1978 and you can see a neat video of it here ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DidbmwH5U

It’s one of my favs on youtube (that music…so 80s)

Anyways in my opinion, like Golden Horn today he's probably just a bit better than this lot....in time perhaps someone like Frosted can mature into a more formidable opponent (like in the Classic) but I suspect AP will have his measure tonight.

A lot has been made of the fact that AP isn't bred for a mile and half but the reality is that none of the horses racing in the Belmont tonight were bred with the intention of EVER participating in a mile and half race (unlike say Coolmore and their horses bred for a mile and half on the turf).

So I don't think the distance is the issue tonight because they will all be pretty much in the same boat and I'd like to think if you actually had one in here that was guaranteed to get the mile and half then he's probably too slow to win this.

Of greater concern is that this will be his 4th big race in 7 weeks (Arkansas Derby, Kentucky, Preakness and now the Belmont) whereas other horses have a break and come here cherry ripe and they'll need to be if they're to topple AP).  Horses aren’t machines but he might just the necessary class to get the job done tonight and I wouldn’t put anyone off of backing him at Evens.

However there’s one horse in here I can’t resist taking a shot with and it’s Mubtaahij.

I suppose everything has its price and 16/1 each way feels like a solid enough play.

I just feel he’s one whose going to improve massively from Kentucky where he had no chance with Christophe Soumillon on his back and from his low draw where he was always going to find the whole big field Derby experience too much for him. Also he didn’t have the best of build ups to the Derby…the travelling, the quarantine, the feed issue and having to train at Arlington all hampered his chances. During the race he just didn’t handle the surface well enough and he never switched his leads.

But all of this will change tonight…he’s been in Belmont for a while and loving life with hot shot Irad Ortiz Jr on board. I’ve got plenty of time for Irad…I saw him last night winning the Belmont Gold Cup over 2miles with a very smart tactical ride and from what I’ve heard Mubtaahij has responded very well switch of jockey.  He’ll also be more at home in this much smaller field. 

The surface will be another plus too…Belmont will feel more like Meydan with its sandier composition. I think back to the UAE Derby and how smooth and silky he looked on that surface and I feel we can see a really good performance from him tonight at Belmont.

Also I think he has a very nice mix of speed and stamina which will see him go close….his dam was placed over 12f in France and for as good as Dubawi was over a mile he did place in a Derby so I suspect a mile and half in this spot against other non stayers should be within reach. I mean if he ran in a 12f in Europe he’ll be absolutely tailed off but against this lot he’s got a chance.

I think win or lose….16/1 each way is a good bet…..