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05 Jun 15
09:34
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04 Oct 09
And no one has mentioned it on here yet? Backers have to be worried surely?
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If shes the best horse on the day, she will win. Draw irrelevant as she has a jockey on board that learnt his trade at Epsom.
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Two years ago the first four home included draws 1, 2 and 3. Ryan and "the boys" will have a cunning plan.
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THE DRAW
YEAR 1ST 2ND 3RD NO. OF RUNNERS GOING 2014 9 10 17 17 GOOD 2013 3 1 6 11 GOOD/SOFT 2012 10 8 2 12 GOOD 2011 7 12 2 13 GOOD 2010 15 4 2 15 GOOD 2009 5 2 9 10 GOOD 2008 13 10 11 16 GOOD 2007 11 9 6 14 GOOD/SOFT 2006 5 3 10 10 GOOD 2005 2 4 9 12 GOOD 2004 3 6 2 7 GOOD 2003 7 11 9 15 GOOD 2002 13 10 3 14 SOFT |
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In the last 25 years, 3 favourites have started from draw 1. 1 of them has won, at 2/1. LSP = zero.
In the last 10 years, 6 of the horses that have been drawn 1 have gone off at 25/1 or more. 5 of them at 40/1 or more. |
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And if you restrict it to field sizes of 12 runners or less, then favourites starting from draw 1 have a 50% strike rate in the last 25 years, showing a LSP of 50%. Gold mine!
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Two horses drawn in gate 17 in 2014 anyone got a link to this interesting start
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drawn 17 of 17
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http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=594462&r_date=2014-06-06&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
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The 1 stall can prove tricky in the Classics at Epsom.
Only 11 runners will be a help & Ryan Moore even more so. Bit of a concern to me this morn is the rainfall  now gd/gs in pls Was sweet on Lega's chances 2day, but wanted gd/fast ground for her. Will hold fire on my Oaks bet until the real ground condition in known. |
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It's a lot of holaboloo, Legitissamo will win with ease.
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Will no doubt be held up, so draw should make little difference.
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stalls 1 and 2 have a horrendous win record historically with field sizes 8 or more, anyone backing legatissimo today needs their head tested. She may well prove to be by far the best filly today and overcome it but in the long run you will lose badly
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Basing your gambling on circumstantial statistics will lead to losing badly. In England, on Group One tracks, 9/10 over trips in excess of a mile the best horse on the day will win no matter where they are drawn. If the jolly loses it won't be because of what stall it came out of 12 furlongs ago
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That stat is so ridiculous it's painful. It's a field size of 11, she's the best filly in there for me and should be closer to the 2/1 mark, definitely a value bet.
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think jack naylor should be the fav here
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There is no doubt that those drawn in the lowest two stalls would have used up more gas to get from a standing start to the top of the hill than those drawn in the middle and higher, whether they are then good enough to still win depends on how much better than the opposition they are.
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coming from the guineas and drawn 1, not for me at 3/1
at the prices I prefer together forever and al naamah win+place |
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Draw 2, the complete rag, just touches off Draw 1, who'd got herself in a state on the way to the start and had to barge her way through - with a gap back to the rest.
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OP a donkey
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I think you will find those who pressed the lay button have got the money on lega
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you could argue that the effort required to get the position the fav got took its toll at end of the race
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.... just as it did with Secret Gesture two years ago
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 ...you could argue that the fav lost the race going down to the start... the draw didnt beat it. |
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you could argue hunter chases should be scrapped
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