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I think the answer to the OP is
It's not fixed in the sense that someone has arranged who will win but there are more horses which are not running to the best of their ability a lot of the time and whose connections know they will certainly not win. Anyone would be very gulllible to think that any sport where money is involved is going to be straight but as is said above connections' expenses have to be paid and on the AW it ain't going to come from the prize money. |
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Exactly. All the partipants don't get together to decide the winner rather the Owner, trainer, Jock get together and decide how the horse will run and where it will finish. Having this knowledge and access to Betfair gives them potential to make an income beyond prize money.
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A lot of trainers phone each other to see how their horses will run. While theyre not laying out how a race will go exactly they do know if other trainers are not winning with theirs.
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I simply would not back a runner on an all weather track that has drifted or is drifting near the off.
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But if likes of M Appleby or K Ryan are all blue on oddschecker then I am in head down.
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You have to take into account the standard of jockey generally riding on the aw, most can only be described as woeful and often you ask yourself whether some rides are just inept or because of more sinister reasons. The better jocks are off elsewhere and you only have to see the massive gulf in class when the likes of Moore reappear around this time of year.
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Your not wrong,polab.
Most of them don't realize that it's a shorter distance around the inside of a bend,or that you can't afford to give a Mark Johnston trained, Joe Fanning ridden runner a soft lead. |
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It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. All the jockeys know each other, travel to the races together and quite evidently discuss the race/tactics with each other (as we saw with Mulrennan and Dwyer).
It's human nature if jockey A says his is strongly fancied and jockey B says his missed some work last week, then they've almost come to the conclusion pre-race jockey A will win. Does jockey B then give it his full effort or has he told his "mates" that jockey A's horse is the one to be on and rides accordingly? |
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Horses A and B are the favourites in my example :p
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Phil Bull said years ago too little being put in by punters and Levy to sustain those taking out, he was right then and he'd be right now. It took years for the Jockey Club to acknowledge punters and the right to be entertained, it wasn't a closed shop for breeders and owners. Neither is it now but with Qatar putting in about £2million extra in sponsorship why has it seemingly all gone to the Pattern Races? Black type horses pay for themselves at stud if they are hardy enough, such owners do not need to benefit by extra prize money. Windfalls from wherever should find there way down the system and improve racing conditions for those at a lower level.
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If the top races don't have good prize money the best horses will end up racing abroad?
Personally I think it's the jockeys and their mates getting all the betting money not necessarily owners. |
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70% of owners lose money owning horses fact. thats the problem some owners find hard to accept its the greed of connections what spoil the game some have the mindset that they can turn to the exchanges to pay for the training fees which is wrong owning a race horse should be a privilege not a money making opperation i feel betfair should do more surely all the clues are on here
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I just think as a punter it's easier to lay Flat, AW and NH. If you can't find 3-4 useless/ready for the knackers yard nags on a miserable Tuesday afto at Fontwell then try something else. Most of the horses on show are total crap. Does it always work? no of course not.
But why try and back the winner, when the losers are far easier to indentify? |
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In slowly run races then the result is far more open to variance as the slower horses now have more chance of winning from factors other than race pace, most AW races (exc Southwell) would appear to be slow, slow, slow.....two furlong dash for the line.
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TheFear's 18:35 post describes the situation perfectly imo. And it's got nothing to do with the surface or the prize money either.
When you consider that one retired Flat jockey who was widely admired for his expert judgement of pace and of the best ground was charging his punters odds to £400, then you realize that it's the bigger races with the stronger betting markets which are most attractive for this sort of arrangement. |
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TheFear's 18:35 post describes the situation perfectly imo. And it's got nothing to do with the surface or the prize money either.
When you consider that one retired Flat jockey who was widely admired for his expert judgement of pace and of the best ground was charging his punters odds to £400, then you realize that it's the bigger races with the stronger betting markets which are most attractive for this sort of arrangement. |
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The mistake a lot of punters make on the aw is using ratings literally with no proven decent speedfigures on surfaces there are numerous examples through the season where horses can even win 2 or 3 races by winning falsely run races giving inflated marks.And that's also the beauty of it,there are so many runners that are overbet and for absolutely no reason than a bit of collateral form...
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There must've been 6/7 maiden races this week already with short priced favs that had all run in desperately slow races and the majority of them have all been beaten!
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Captain Christy
You only have to look at the amount of unplaced favourites I have kept stats on placed favourites or joint-favourites for quite a while. Chelmsford - 59 races - 33 placed (55.93%) Kempton - 1,776 races - 1,140 placed (64.19%) Lingfield - 1,705 races - 1,166 placed (68.39%) (Longest run of unplaced favs or jt-favs is 6. It has reached 4 losers 32 times, only got to 5 once, and the next one won. The last 4 have been unplaced. Southwell - 902 races - 586 placed (64.97%) Wolverhampton - Tapeta surface - 533 races - 340 placed (63.79%) I believe the percentage for placed favs on turf is 60%. |
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There are also marked differences between sires progeny on different surfaces.
For example - the 18 sires with the most runners, albeit only 295, on the new Tapeta surface, with no winners yet, have 48 places, a place strike rate of 16.27% Their combined strike rate on the old surface, with 2,005 runners was 9.77% win and a further 18.1% (48) were placed. Given the old surface stats, on average they should have had 29 wins and 54 places on Tapeta. Not much difference in the place rate, but winning seems to be a tad harder for them. And there are plenty of sires whose progeny can't act on Fibresand at all. If a trainer wants to get such a horse's mark down, there's no need to get a jockey to take a pull or bury it at the back of the field on polytrack, just run it at Southwell and watch it get beaten while running properly. |