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Wrong forum for the example but the principle applies into what constitutes value and how do you measure the change in odds and the time left in an event before trading.
Looked at Barcelona tonight and thought the 1.1 to win was probably correct pre match but the 1.7 plus after 35 minutes albeit one nil down looked much more attractive. How can you measure this or is it simply opinion?
My mind is teling me the longer the game continues stats say Barca will score and the odds are lengthening to make this a very doable trade.
Racing is clearly different in that the timescale of the race is short and what does an even money shot have to do wrong by say half way in a 2 mile race to go to 2.5. Does it represent value in the win market at this point or is purely subjective?
Looked at Barcelona tonight and thought the 1.1 to win was probably correct pre match but the 1.7 plus after 35 minutes albeit one nil down looked much more attractive. How can you measure this or is it simply opinion?
My mind is teling me the longer the game continues stats say Barca will score and the odds are lengthening to make this a very doable trade.
Racing is clearly different in that the timescale of the race is short and what does an even money shot have to do wrong by say half way in a 2 mile race to go to 2.5. Does it represent value in the win market at this point or is purely subjective?
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It is the ability to be able to determine "value" that seperates winners from losers.
Put simply,it is about whether you consistantly show a profit by your opinion.
Put simply,it is about whether you consistantly show a profit by your opinion.
Ultimately you are right racingstar, it is about the end result and value is probably subjective. Also knowledge of the running style of a horse or riding style can make a 2.5 shot hugely appealing or equally very unattractive at various stages of a race.
My point was based more on a principle of shall we say a valueometer! How do you equate time left in an event with the odds available. Just seen Barca are strolling but not involved so no after timing please!
My point was based more on a principle of shall we say a valueometer! How do you equate time left in an event with the odds available. Just seen Barca are strolling but not involved so no after timing please!
Nowweknow,
Everybody on here has an "opinion".However,many of them are utterly worthless.
Over the years I have heard many statements about "you cannot eat value".
All I will say is,if you backed every horse that started at 1/2 at Evens,you would win untold
Everybody on here has an "opinion".However,many of them are utterly worthless.
Over the years I have heard many statements about "you cannot eat value".
All I will say is,if you backed every horse that started at 1/2 at Evens,you would win untold
An example which may or may not clarify things a little. A Goldolphin debutante over 7 furlongs takes a grip and at halfway has doubled in price. My guess would be still no value added as you have no prior knowledge of this trait so it becomes more of a lay.
Second example would be a jump race where a mistake leads to a similar price adjustment, for me the value would be in the win market. I guess I have answered the question in that it is all about your opinion but there does seem to be price overreaction in many cases and value to exploit either way.
Second example would be a jump race where a mistake leads to a similar price adjustment, for me the value would be in the win market. I guess I have answered the question in that it is all about your opinion but there does seem to be price overreaction in many cases and value to exploit either way.
its only a price overreaction in your opinion tho, not in those who have put it up ..
Threads like these usually come to an end when someone puts up drifters as an example of terrific value.
The bigger the drifter the bigger the value.
Of course this is ridiculous.
So where does that leave value argument?
The bigger the drifter the bigger the value.
Of course this is ridiculous.
So where does that leave value argument?
Guess that is right Delta and starting this thread cost me the value on Barca!
The balancing of knowledge and available odds although blindingly obvious is the answer but still intrigued by the concept of time left in events and the stats regarding outcomes from short priced favourites. DYOR as they say so with time being my friend I will do some work.
Got some half price Hardys Crest from Tesco in Portsmouth tonite Delta and colour wise it looks SB and tastes SB!
The balancing of knowledge and available odds although blindingly obvious is the answer but still intrigued by the concept of time left in events and the stats regarding outcomes from short priced favourites. DYOR as they say so with time being my friend I will do some work.
Got some half price Hardys Crest from Tesco in Portsmouth tonite Delta and colour wise it looks SB and tastes SB!
Dr Crippen, point taken about drifters but more interested in value and time into an event. I think markets pre event are normally on the money, i.e money talks.
nowweknow,
Pre Event Markets merely demonstrate the views of the users.
They are no more likely to be an accurate reflection of the eventual outcome than a personal view.
Pundits on RUK seem oblivious to this fact
Pre Event Markets merely demonstrate the views of the users.
They are no more likely to be an accurate reflection of the eventual outcome than a personal view.
Pundits on RUK seem oblivious to this fact
I too am interested in the crux of your query NWK - have always wondered about value mid-event.
The thing is, I believe it's much harder to think you're right about a price (unless it's way out) mid-event, because things are happening that you cannot have planned for. I do a little trading on horses (mostly simple betting though), but typically get my trades in before the race starts (whether it is a back or lay). My bet is only on because I think I have value at that point, but I wouldn't be nearly as confident in whether I'm getting value mid-race, so I tend not to trade at this point (or I have pre-set trades that are matched when something happens, rather than because I'm reacting to something happening).
How anyone knows what price their horse should be in the split-second that one of its rivals makes a mistake is beyond me, so why trade at that moment?
Many will point out that trading in-play with a pre-set trade is also daft, because it doesn't take into account what is happening to mean that trade gets matched. However, I look at that from the perspective of a risk minimiser, and am quite happy to nick a point or two before the race has begun in earnest. My accounts show that I'd be doing almost identically if I was just outright betting on these horses, rather than trading them, but my approach works better for my more cautious mindset. Especially when my trading horses hit the inevitable losing spell (most still get matched as trades and I don't see lots of money disappear very quickly that way)...
The thing is, I believe it's much harder to think you're right about a price (unless it's way out) mid-event, because things are happening that you cannot have planned for. I do a little trading on horses (mostly simple betting though), but typically get my trades in before the race starts (whether it is a back or lay). My bet is only on because I think I have value at that point, but I wouldn't be nearly as confident in whether I'm getting value mid-race, so I tend not to trade at this point (or I have pre-set trades that are matched when something happens, rather than because I'm reacting to something happening).
How anyone knows what price their horse should be in the split-second that one of its rivals makes a mistake is beyond me, so why trade at that moment?
Many will point out that trading in-play with a pre-set trade is also daft, because it doesn't take into account what is happening to mean that trade gets matched. However, I look at that from the perspective of a risk minimiser, and am quite happy to nick a point or two before the race has begun in earnest. My accounts show that I'd be doing almost identically if I was just outright betting on these horses, rather than trading them, but my approach works better for my more cautious mindset. Especially when my trading horses hit the inevitable losing spell (most still get matched as trades and I don't see lots of money disappear very quickly that way)...
They are no more likely to be an accurate reflection of the eventual outcome than a personal view.
Certainly agree with this. The notion that pre-race markets are almost 100% accurate is way wide of the mark. They are 100% accurate to the view of everyone contributing to the overall market, but those people might all be making the same mistakes in assessing that particular race. There is great value in offer on almost every race in my opinion.
Certainly agree with this. The notion that pre-race markets are almost 100% accurate is way wide of the mark. They are 100% accurate to the view of everyone contributing to the overall market, but those people might all be making the same mistakes in assessing that particular race. There is great value in offer on almost every race in my opinion.
onlt takes a small amount of money early in the week for certain horses for the herd mentality to take over, people like to follow what they think is informed money
Interesting tomdene and pretty much the same approach I use horseracing and similar to you I feel at ease operating this way.
Still plan to do a bit of research on the footy side but Barca don't trade @1.7 at home very often! Feel pretty confident that you would make more money at 1.7 than pre match at 1.1
Still plan to do a bit of research on the footy side but Barca don't trade @1.7 at home very often! Feel pretty confident that you would make more money at 1.7 than pre match at 1.1
If you have achieved overround by backing or laying more than 1 in the same event, then it is safe to say that you have got value.
If you profit from the actual result of the event, then it is safe to say that you have got value.
Anything else is just hot air.
If you profit from the actual result of the event, then it is safe to say that you have got value.
Anything else is just hot air.
West Ham good form this season Swansea poor record against them in the East End thraded at 5s after going a goal down,nice wee trade always worthy of looking out for fav at home going a goal down.
would it still have been value if West Ham hadn't won?
That was my point BARNEY21. Clearly a horserace is rapidly changing and as tomdene said not easy to measure the value in a rapidly changing scenario, soccer is easier to act on.
its ALL about value.racing star and others say its all about if you show an overall profit, this only comes about if you get good+ value in your bets, if you keep backing things at 2.6 that return 2/1 I don't care how clever you are or think you are youy WILL lose, if of course you do the reverse and get 2/1 everything that is trading at 2.6 you WILL WIN.AS LONG AS OVERALL YOURE SELECTIONS BEIT IT FOOTY HORSES GREYHOUNDS ET REPRESNT A SHORTER PRICE THAN YOU TAKE EVENTUALLY YOU GET THE LOOT!!!"
Value is irrelevant in a one off scenario, it is only measurable over a long term series of events. Whether or not you've achieved value on any single event is impossible to prove or disprove irrespective of the outcome. You can legitimately say that if you back a long term series of similar scenarios that you will get value but some of the single selections within that series WILL be bad value, even if they win, and it's impossible to isolate those.
'The value bet of the race' is an often used term that is self indulgent and impossible to prove/disprove, as is determining the deciding factor/s of any event.
'The value bet of the race' is an often used term that is self indulgent and impossible to prove/disprove, as is determining the deciding factor/s of any event.
gredel of course youre correct, its impossible to get value everytime you bet , but if you have enough bets9i.e big sample) if your good value bets totally outweigh the bad value bets you end up getting the money longterm, afterall it is a longterm thing.
I personally (with my method of punting) need to have lots of bets, so its all about getting good value for my money.
in football you,ve had a result not value,whatever price you took,there would have been better value every minute that passed till west ham equalised,then at 1 all they,ll have been better value to win in some peoples eyes although a smaller price,but swansea could have missed chances at 1 nil to make it 2 nil
I never grasped making your own tissue,I get what looks a big price on offer,but you must be careful it does not change your vision,gift,esp etc.Value could destroy your picture.
How often do you get put off a value bet by a big drift on here, logically the horse would be even better value however the bigger the drift on here you would lean towards a smaller stake/no bet. Or do you ignore market trends altogether?
Ive backed most of my selections at BSP for the last week because of this phenomenon. The only example of where I would not have backed a winner would be Tom Melbourne in dundalk last friday; went from 6.2 out to 11 and a bit, I would not have backed it before the off after seeing that, but as i had backed at BSP I was tied in.
Ive backed most of my selections at BSP for the last week because of this phenomenon. The only example of where I would not have backed a winner would be Tom Melbourne in dundalk last friday; went from 6.2 out to 11 and a bit, I would not have backed it before the off after seeing that, but as i had backed at BSP I was tied in.
How can you price up something you believe has no chance,but you believe others will fancy it? One of the great unanswered questions for those that make a tissue.
Also the belief that someone else does not see or have the same opinion as you,which when when I look back at some of those placepot results in the 80s 90s becomes very evident.
Which ultimately leads to the question ,if you believe your selection should win the race,then surely it should be Fav in your mind?.
Also the belief that someone else does not see or have the same opinion as you,which when when I look back at some of those placepot results in the 80s 90s becomes very evident.
Which ultimately leads to the question ,if you believe your selection should win the race,then surely it should be Fav in your mind?.
To those who believe that getting the value is everything, consider this:
You fancy a horse and your opinion says that you want to back it at 21.0
You monitor the market regularly up to the off but the horse hovers around the 15.0 mark. You don't want to back it at 15.0 because you do not consider that to be value.
There is a method available to you to get your 'value' price or lose nothing on the race. You input a 'keep' bet at 21.0 and now there are 3 possible results:
a) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value obtained & profit made)
b) the keep bet is not matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value not obtained, no win, no loss)
c) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse loses. (value obtained, loss)
You fancy a horse and your opinion says that you want to back it at 21.0
You monitor the market regularly up to the off but the horse hovers around the 15.0 mark. You don't want to back it at 15.0 because you do not consider that to be value.
There is a method available to you to get your 'value' price or lose nothing on the race. You input a 'keep' bet at 21.0 and now there are 3 possible results:
a) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value obtained & profit made)
b) the keep bet is not matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value not obtained, no win, no loss)
c) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse loses. (value obtained, loss)
^ Don't agree with this, and it ties into what the OP was alluding to (I think) to begin with.
You might well think a horse is worth backing at 21.0 before the race, but that doesn't mean you'd want to back it at 21.0 in the race itself. If it is trading at 15.0 before the off, something bad would need to happen for it to hit 21.0 once things are rolling, at which point you might no longer fancy it. I think you can have a good idea when a price is wrong before the off, as you are able to do a lot of work and be relatively confident in your tissue, but once the race is off, a million imponderables are interacting at once, so I wouldn't be wanting to make a value call on anything at that point.
I would like to think that all value punters do make a tissue and then only bet when there is a safety cushion built in to what they can back at. For example, I don't back 11.0 shots that I think should be 9.0 shots, because I don't think I can be that accurate all the time (the difference between those chances equates to about 2%). I would, however, back an 11.0 shot that I think should be a 7.0 shot.
You might well think a horse is worth backing at 21.0 before the race, but that doesn't mean you'd want to back it at 21.0 in the race itself. If it is trading at 15.0 before the off, something bad would need to happen for it to hit 21.0 once things are rolling, at which point you might no longer fancy it. I think you can have a good idea when a price is wrong before the off, as you are able to do a lot of work and be relatively confident in your tissue, but once the race is off, a million imponderables are interacting at once, so I wouldn't be wanting to make a value call on anything at that point.
I would like to think that all value punters do make a tissue and then only bet when there is a safety cushion built in to what they can back at. For example, I don't back 11.0 shots that I think should be 9.0 shots, because I don't think I can be that accurate all the time (the difference between those chances equates to about 2%). I would, however, back an 11.0 shot that I think should be a 7.0 shot.
you wouldn't back a horse at 10/1 when you think it should be 8/1?
Cant argue with that swift-tuttle but I am really interested in the In Play angle. Would you make more money in the long run backing Barca @1.7 a goal down than taking 1.1 pre kick off. Does the seven times higher price reflect value?
you need to look at previous examples to get some idea , I would suggest
if you're technically minded there is a betfair/data site where you can download all information including IP prices, load it into a database and make all the queries you want.
even then there is still a question as to whether you have proved anything imo
if you're technically minded there is a betfair/data site where you can download all information including IP prices, load it into a database and make all the queries you want.
even then there is still a question as to whether you have proved anything imo
Horses that have a profile of prominent running in higher class races are worth betting back/lay.
Swift - I'm with Tomdeane - you're argument makes no sense.
Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it.
eg - I fancy a horse and think he should be 3/1. Disappointedly I see he's 11/4 - no bet. At the off he drifts like a barge and is available at 8/1. Does this make him a great bet for me?? No, because he's drifted for a reason. If I determine that I understand the reason for it drifting and disagree with the reasoning behind the drift I may still back the horse but at the snapshot of time at the off I can't make the horse 3/1 anymore because the dynamics of the market have changed and the probability of how likely my horse is to run a race have almost certainly increased significantly.
Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it.
eg - I fancy a horse and think he should be 3/1. Disappointedly I see he's 11/4 - no bet. At the off he drifts like a barge and is available at 8/1. Does this make him a great bet for me?? No, because he's drifted for a reason. If I determine that I understand the reason for it drifting and disagree with the reasoning behind the drift I may still back the horse but at the snapshot of time at the off I can't make the horse 3/1 anymore because the dynamics of the market have changed and the probability of how likely my horse is to run a race have almost certainly increased significantly.
everybody betting from a level playing field pre-off but I wouldn't be looking for 'VALUE' bet in running against the sharks.
every one not playing from a level playing field pre-off as there are many non-triers that a privileged few know about. Fergal O'brien had a special a few days back and i'm sure of few of you knew the coup but others were backing when his chances were basically a 1000 pre race as reckom most of the field would have had to fall for it to win given the shape it was in.
As for in running you have to be mad to bet anything with less than 4 fences to jump and as for attheraces you may as well burn your cash.
As for in running you have to be mad to bet anything with less than 4 fences to jump and as for attheraces you may as well burn your cash.
it wasn't an argument racingguru - in that I wasn't trying to convince anyone of my point of view.
it was simply a statement of fact.
you said:
Swift - I'm with Tomdeane - you're argument makes no sense.
Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it.
Forgetting about you're (sic) opening gambit, when you say that 'once things start to change that opinion can and almost always dose change with it', I started to laugh.
The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru?
it was simply a statement of fact.
you said:
Swift - I'm with Tomdeane - you're argument makes no sense.
Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it.
Forgetting about you're (sic) opening gambit, when you say that 'once things start to change that opinion can and almost always dose change with it', I started to laugh.
The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru?
The minute anyone mentions value I immediately think, ''hmm - he can't find many winners so he's looking to break even on the ones his pin does fall on occasionally.''
Isn't that the case with value seekers?
If you're looking in the right place for your winners, the value as you call it is nearly always there.
It's your method of finding winners that needs your attention.
Not this intangible concept of value that you think will make up for your obvious lack of judgement.
Isn't that the case with value seekers?
If you're looking in the right place for your winners, the value as you call it is nearly always there.
It's your method of finding winners that needs your attention.
Not this intangible concept of value that you think will make up for your obvious lack of judgement.
Some real know-it-alls who apparently know very little on this thread!
The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? swift - are you trying to say that if you think a horse is a 5-1 shot but it drifts to double that in the 10-minute period before a race that you still think it is a 5-1 shot? Sometimes horses are not trying, and no amount of pre-race work can pinpoint this! You have to have your own tissue and know at what prices you are willing to bet, but you have to be sensitive to things that are affecting the market and which you cannot possibly be aware of. The amount of fluctuating before the race starts might surprise a lot of people, but there is a huge difference between your notional 5-1 shot jumping from 7-2 to 7-1 and it drifting from 5-1 to 10-1.
The minute anyone mentions value I immediately think, ''hmm - he can't find many winners so he's looking to break even on the ones his pin does fall on occasionally.''
Isn't that the case with value seekers?
No, in a word.
I agree that a lot of so-called value seekers have a lack of judgement and that if you look in the right place for your winners, the value is usually there. But the two are not mutually exclusive. Most people that lose money by following a value approach are not following a value approach at all - they just think they are. But there are plenty of winners who only win because they are value seekers.
The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? swift - are you trying to say that if you think a horse is a 5-1 shot but it drifts to double that in the 10-minute period before a race that you still think it is a 5-1 shot? Sometimes horses are not trying, and no amount of pre-race work can pinpoint this! You have to have your own tissue and know at what prices you are willing to bet, but you have to be sensitive to things that are affecting the market and which you cannot possibly be aware of. The amount of fluctuating before the race starts might surprise a lot of people, but there is a huge difference between your notional 5-1 shot jumping from 7-2 to 7-1 and it drifting from 5-1 to 10-1.
The minute anyone mentions value I immediately think, ''hmm - he can't find many winners so he's looking to break even on the ones his pin does fall on occasionally.''
Isn't that the case with value seekers?
No, in a word.
I agree that a lot of so-called value seekers have a lack of judgement and that if you look in the right place for your winners, the value is usually there. But the two are not mutually exclusive. Most people that lose money by following a value approach are not following a value approach at all - they just think they are. But there are plenty of winners who only win because they are value seekers.
tom
did you see my question back there? never got an answer from you
the one about your tissue having it at 9.0 but you wouldn't back it at 11.0?
cheers
did you see my question back there? never got an answer from you
the one about your tissue having it at 9.0 but you wouldn't back it at 11.0?
cheers
The answer was in the same post -> history tells me I'm not good enough to be within 2% accurate in my tissue. I tend to bet only when I think there is a very big safety cushion in terms of the price I think I should get and the price I can get. We all have different ways of doing things and mine is to be conservative, waiting for these safety cushions, and then having bigger bets.
It does mean I have fewer bets than a lot of other people I know who either bet or trade for a living, but it works for me.
I'll probably be accused of aftertiming, but to help show what I mean, I layed Taquin De Seuil in the Betfair as I was able to do so at 5.6. On my tissue he was a 9.0 chance, so I was happy to get involved there. I study around four races in depth each weekend, and will only play when I think the prices are right. Since the Betfair, I have only had one bet.
Not on here to get into petty battles so will say good luck to you and wish you the best for the future.
It does mean I have fewer bets than a lot of other people I know who either bet or trade for a living, but it works for me.
I'll probably be accused of aftertiming, but to help show what I mean, I layed Taquin De Seuil in the Betfair as I was able to do so at 5.6. On my tissue he was a 9.0 chance, so I was happy to get involved there. I study around four races in depth each weekend, and will only play when I think the prices are right. Since the Betfair, I have only had one bet.
Not on here to get into petty battles so will say good luck to you and wish you the best for the future.
With tomdeane on the drifters. The reality of horses drifting badly is that there will be in the vast majority of races a substantive reason for the drift i.e pulling hard on the way to the start or paddock behaviour or something that people close to the horse are aware of and voting with their fingers, we know it happens. This type of drift does not represent value imo.
Looking for value IR in racing is tough as the chairs are being rearranged very quickly, chuck in the ATR factor and you are swimming in murky waters. My point in the OP is related more to relative value before and during an event and how to make a judgement. Clearly in many cases it will be opinion and results based but still think there are clear overreactions in markets and opportunities.
Looking for value IR in racing is tough as the chairs are being rearranged very quickly, chuck in the ATR factor and you are swimming in murky waters. My point in the OP is related more to relative value before and during an event and how to make a judgement. Clearly in many cases it will be opinion and results based but still think there are clear overreactions in markets and opportunities.
I agree where there is a substantive reason for the drift but sometimes there is n't (or there is a reason but it is n't substantive).
Hey Big Spender Saturday before last - available at around 6s, 13/2 in the morning, stable had a winner at 10/1 earlier on the card, drifted to an SP of 12/1 and won with his head in his chest.I've no idea why he drifted other than the prevailing market/racing media opinion that he was 5lbs higher in a better race than the one he won last year (which overlooked his better effort first time out this year and the fact that he'd won the race off 150 a couple of years back).
Some of the gambles are a bit flaky as well - Vukovar for the Tingle Creek would be a recent example, surely value is identifying correctly where the market is wrong and acting accordingly.Much easier to write than to do of course.
Hey Big Spender Saturday before last - available at around 6s, 13/2 in the morning, stable had a winner at 10/1 earlier on the card, drifted to an SP of 12/1 and won with his head in his chest.I've no idea why he drifted other than the prevailing market/racing media opinion that he was 5lbs higher in a better race than the one he won last year (which overlooked his better effort first time out this year and the fact that he'd won the race off 150 a couple of years back).
Some of the gambles are a bit flaky as well - Vukovar for the Tingle Creek would be a recent example, surely value is identifying correctly where the market is wrong and acting accordingly.Much easier to write than to do of course.
the only true representation of value is the end result which gives either a profit or a loss - if you keep beating the market odds (SP) with your bet it gives a realistic opportunity to achieve profit - most of my bets are on the exchange as i rarely bet @ less than double digit odds & the odds (comparing betfair to bookmaker SP) are far more favourable to achieve an overall profit accepting that i may have long losing runs which many bettors cannot accept - when in the middle of a losing run there is no doubt confidence evaporates pretty quickly but that is the time to have implicit trust in your methodology assuming it is tried and tested over a prolonged period
so called value seekers may be just poor tissue compilers, 
i,m sure theres bookies out there who are experienced tissue compilers and good at it,but even though their job is to take a bet theres no way in the world they ,d stand in the ring with a huge discrepancy from the other boards who,ve followed betfair
they,d say theres no need to ,because they can lay the horse at the betfair tissue price ,but if your good at it why other time wouldnt you want to take the lot
the obvious reason is the betfair market is based on info most of us arent privy to,so tissues are basicaly worthless,
the hendo boys looked like madmen laying the paper fancied dalawaan at tripple its morning odds against it stablemate and reading the form you,d say it belied its drift ,but only the inside boys new it was 20lb behind his stablemate and you only need 1 to beat it
i,m sure theres bookies out there who are experienced tissue compilers and good at it,but even though their job is to take a bet theres no way in the world they ,d stand in the ring with a huge discrepancy from the other boards who,ve followed betfair
they,d say theres no need to ,because they can lay the horse at the betfair tissue price ,but if your good at it why other time wouldnt you want to take the lot
the obvious reason is the betfair market is based on info most of us arent privy to,so tissues are basicaly worthless,
the hendo boys looked like madmen laying the paper fancied dalawaan at tripple its morning odds against it stablemate and reading the form you,d say it belied its drift ,but only the inside boys new it was 20lb behind his stablemate and you only need 1 to beat it
years ago the shoe,nevo, mellish and co would be on the rattler to southwell and doing their tissue,if they put them in the middle of the table there ,d be 6 different tissues ,they,d spend the next hour arguing the toss, till they came up with a tissue they all agreed on,is that value or just someone arguing his point of view better than someone else
whats the worst saying in racing one of the shoes favsm
its finished 5th but out run his price,why if your a layer and confident it wont win or be placed you can basicaly put any price up,just like the difference between the win price and a top 10 price in golf
its finished 5th but out run his price,why if your a layer and confident it wont win or be placed you can basicaly put any price up,just like the difference between the win price and a top 10 price in golf
^ This comes back to the need for a safety cushion though - even the best compilers in the game can't hope to be 100% accurate, but close enough is good enough...
If you put up any price about a horse you didn't think would get placed, you'd be lucky to be eating baked beans in a few months... because, we're all wrong sometimes! A 500-1 chance has the chance to win any race, just by virtue of being in it... If you laid these at 250-1 the place you'd soon be in dire straits.
not if you no something no one else does, 
,
theres 99% of those irish novice hurdle races where you can put up any price you like most are a hurdle behind by halfway
,theres 99% of those irish novice hurdle races where you can put up any price you like most are a hurdle behind by halfway
A couple of years back you couldn't lay a hurdler/chaser at 1.01 until it was well clear on the run in.It was great value for the 1.01 backers.Nowadays with so many backers desperate for the easy money you can be matched with a hurdle to go,possibly even a fence if horse is 20 lengths clear.Value gone ?
the 1.01 may well be value to the layer in that case
surely the odds offered on betfair dont reflect whats going to or might happen but reflects different peoples positions,certain prices taken may well be value to both parties depending on a position they took pre event
If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? _ Swift
You are very naive if you don't adjust when the market changes. The market is not perfect by any means but starting price odds are afar better reflection than early morning odds when it comes to a horses chance of winning and if my horses drift badly they almost always lose. By your argument I should be piling into these ones as surely the "value" has multiplied. Road to poorhouse IMO.
Anyway if this is how you see things then good luck but you have a LOT to learn about making money from betting.
You are very naive if you don't adjust when the market changes. The market is not perfect by any means but starting price odds are afar better reflection than early morning odds when it comes to a horses chance of winning and if my horses drift badly they almost always lose. By your argument I should be piling into these ones as surely the "value" has multiplied. Road to poorhouse IMO.
Anyway if this is how you see things then good luck but you have a LOT to learn about making money from betting.
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