There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Wrong forum for the example but the principle applies into what constitutes value and how do you measure the change in odds and the time left in an event before trading.
Looked at Barcelona tonight and thought the 1.1 to win was probably correct pre match but the 1.7 plus after 35 minutes albeit one nil down looked much more attractive. How can you measure this or is it simply opinion?
My mind is teling me the longer the game continues stats say Barca will score and the odds are lengthening to make this a very doable trade.
Racing is clearly different in that the timescale of the race is short and what does an even money shot have to do wrong by say half way in a 2 mile race to go to 2.5. Does it represent value in the win market at this point or is purely subjective?
Looked at Barcelona tonight and thought the 1.1 to win was probably correct pre match but the 1.7 plus after 35 minutes albeit one nil down looked much more attractive. How can you measure this or is it simply opinion?
My mind is teling me the longer the game continues stats say Barca will score and the odds are lengthening to make this a very doable trade.
Racing is clearly different in that the timescale of the race is short and what does an even money shot have to do wrong by say half way in a 2 mile race to go to 2.5. Does it represent value in the win market at this point or is purely subjective?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 56
|
By:
It is the ability to be able to determine "value" that seperates winners from losers.
Put simply,it is about whether you consistantly show a profit by your opinion. |
|
By:
Second sentence concur racingstar .
|
|
By:
Ultimately you are right racingstar, it is about the end result and value is probably subjective. Also knowledge of the running style of a horse or riding style can make a 2.5 shot hugely appealing or equally very unattractive at various stages of a race.
My point was based more on a principle of shall we say a valueometer! How do you equate time left in an event with the odds available. Just seen Barca are strolling but not involved so no after timing please! |
|
By:
you cant because everybody has a different opinion
|
|
By:
Nowweknow,
Everybody on here has an "opinion".However,many of them are utterly worthless. Over the years I have heard many statements about "you cannot eat value". All I will say is,if you backed every horse that started at 1/2 at Evens,you would win untold  |
|
By:
An example which may or may not clarify things a little. A Goldolphin debutante over 7 furlongs takes a grip and at halfway has doubled in price. My guess would be still no value added as you have no prior knowledge of this trait so it becomes more of a lay.
Second example would be a jump race where a mistake leads to a similar price adjustment, for me the value would be in the win market. I guess I have answered the question in that it is all about your opinion but there does seem to be price overreaction in many cases and value to exploit either way. |
|
By:
It is all about what your "opinion" is worth.
|
|
By:
its only a price overreaction in your opinion tho, not in those who have put it up ..
|
|
By:
Threads like these usually come to an end when someone puts up drifters as an example of terrific value.
The bigger the drifter the bigger the value. Of course this is ridiculous. So where does that leave value argument? |
|
By:
Guess that is right Delta and starting this thread cost me the value on Barca!
The balancing of knowledge and available odds although blindingly obvious is the answer but still intrigued by the concept of time left in events and the stats regarding outcomes from short priced favourites. DYOR as they say so with time being my friend I will do some work. Got some half price Hardys Crest from Tesco in Portsmouth tonite Delta and colour wise it looks SB and tastes SB! |
|
By:
Dr Crippen, point taken about drifters but more interested in value and time into an event. I think markets pre event are normally on the money, i.e money talks.
|
|
By:
nowweknow,
Pre Event Markets merely demonstrate the views of the users. They are no more likely to be an accurate reflection of the eventual outcome than a personal view. Pundits on RUK seem oblivious to this fact |
|
By:
I too am interested in the crux of your query NWK - have always wondered about value mid-event.
The thing is, I believe it's much harder to think you're right about a price (unless it's way out) mid-event, because things are happening that you cannot have planned for. I do a little trading on horses (mostly simple betting though), but typically get my trades in before the race starts (whether it is a back or lay). My bet is only on because I think I have value at that point, but I wouldn't be nearly as confident in whether I'm getting value mid-race, so I tend not to trade at this point (or I have pre-set trades that are matched when something happens, rather than because I'm reacting to something happening). How anyone knows what price their horse should be in the split-second that one of its rivals makes a mistake is beyond me, so why trade at that moment? Many will point out that trading in-play with a pre-set trade is also daft, because it doesn't take into account what is happening to mean that trade gets matched. However, I look at that from the perspective of a risk minimiser, and am quite happy to nick a point or two before the race has begun in earnest. My accounts show that I'd be doing almost identically if I was just outright betting on these horses, rather than trading them, but my approach works better for my more cautious mindset. Especially when my trading horses hit the inevitable losing spell (most still get matched as trades and I don't see lots of money disappear very quickly that way)... |
|
By:
They are no more likely to be an accurate reflection of the eventual outcome than a personal view.
Certainly agree with this. The notion that pre-race markets are almost 100% accurate is way wide of the mark. They are 100% accurate to the view of everyone contributing to the overall market, but those people might all be making the same mistakes in assessing that particular race. There is great value in offer on almost every race in my opinion. |
|
By:
onlt takes a small amount of money early in the week for certain horses for the herd mentality to take over, people like to follow what they think is informed money
|
|
By:
Interesting tomdene and pretty much the same approach I use horseracing and similar to you I feel at ease operating this way.
Still plan to do a bit of research on the footy side but Barca don't trade @1.7 at home very often! Feel pretty confident that you would make more money at 1.7 than pre match at 1.1 |
|
By:
If you have achieved overround by backing or laying more than 1 in the same event, then it is safe to say that you have got value.
If you profit from the actual result of the event, then it is safe to say that you have got value. Anything else is just hot air. |
|
By:
West Ham good form this season Swansea poor record against them in the East End thraded at 5s after going a goal down,nice wee trade always worthy of looking out for fav at home going a goal down.
|
|
By:
would it still have been value if West Ham hadn't won?
|
|
By:
That was my point BARNEY21. Clearly a horserace is rapidly changing and as tomdene said not easy to measure the value in a rapidly changing scenario, soccer is easier to act on.
|
|
By:
its ALL about value.racing star and others say its all about if you show an overall profit, this only comes about if you get good+ value in your bets, if you keep backing things at 2.6 that return 2/1 I don't care how clever you are or think you are youy WILL lose, if of course you do the reverse and get 2/1 everything that is trading at 2.6 you WILL WIN.AS LONG AS OVERALL YOURE SELECTIONS BEIT IT FOOTY HORSES GREYHOUNDS ET REPRESNT A SHORTER PRICE THAN YOU TAKE EVENTUALLY YOU GET THE LOOT!!!"
|
|
By:
Value is irrelevant in a one off scenario, it is only measurable over a long term series of events. Whether or not you've achieved value on any single event is impossible to prove or disprove irrespective of the outcome. You can legitimately say that if you back a long term series of similar scenarios that you will get value but some of the single selections within that series WILL be bad value, even if they win, and it's impossible to isolate those.
'The value bet of the race' is an often used term that is self indulgent and impossible to prove/disprove, as is determining the deciding factor/s of any event. |
|
By:
gredel of course youre correct, its impossible to get value everytime you bet , but if you have enough bets9i.e big sample) if your good value bets totally outweigh the bad value bets you end up getting the money longterm, afterall it is a longterm thing.
|
|
By:
I personally (with my method of punting) need to have lots of bets, so its all about getting good value for my money.
|
|
By:
in football you,ve had a result not value,whatever price you took,there would have been better value every minute that passed till west ham equalised,then at 1 all they,ll have been better value to win in some peoples eyes although a smaller price,but swansea could have missed chances at 1 nil to make it 2 nil
|
|
By:
I never grasped making your own tissue,I get what looks a big price on offer,but you must be careful it does not change your vision,gift,esp etc.Value could destroy your picture.
|
|
By:
How often do you get put off a value bet by a big drift on here, logically the horse would be even better value however the bigger the drift on here you would lean towards a smaller stake/no bet. Or do you ignore market trends altogether?
Ive backed most of my selections at BSP for the last week because of this phenomenon. The only example of where I would not have backed a winner would be Tom Melbourne in dundalk last friday; went from 6.2 out to 11 and a bit, I would not have backed it before the off after seeing that, but as i had backed at BSP I was tied in. |
|
By:
How can you price up something you believe has no chance,but you believe others will fancy it? One of the great unanswered questions for those that make a tissue.
Also the belief that someone else does not see or have the same opinion as you,which when when I look back at some of those placepot results in the 80s 90s becomes very evident. Which ultimately leads to the question ,if you believe your selection should win the race,then surely it should be Fav in your mind?. |
|
By:
To those who believe that getting the value is everything, consider this:
You fancy a horse and your opinion says that you want to back it at 21.0 You monitor the market regularly up to the off but the horse hovers around the 15.0 mark. You don't want to back it at 15.0 because you do not consider that to be value. There is a method available to you to get your 'value' price or lose nothing on the race. You input a 'keep' bet at 21.0 and now there are 3 possible results: a) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value obtained & profit made) b) the keep bet is not matched at 21.0 and the horse goes on to win the race; (value not obtained, no win, no loss) c) the keep bet is matched at 21.0 and the horse loses. (value obtained, loss) |
|
By:
^ Don't agree with this, and it ties into what the OP was alluding to (I think) to begin with.
You might well think a horse is worth backing at 21.0 before the race, but that doesn't mean you'd want to back it at 21.0 in the race itself. If it is trading at 15.0 before the off, something bad would need to happen for it to hit 21.0 once things are rolling, at which point you might no longer fancy it. I think you can have a good idea when a price is wrong before the off, as you are able to do a lot of work and be relatively confident in your tissue, but once the race is off, a million imponderables are interacting at once, so I wouldn't be wanting to make a value call on anything at that point. I would like to think that all value punters do make a tissue and then only bet when there is a safety cushion built in to what they can back at. For example, I don't back 11.0 shots that I think should be 9.0 shots, because I don't think I can be that accurate all the time (the difference between those chances equates to about 2%). I would, however, back an 11.0 shot that I think should be a 7.0 shot. |
|
By:
you wouldn't back a horse at 10/1 when you think it should be 8/1?
|
|
By:
Cant argue with that swift-tuttle but I am really interested in the In Play angle. Would you make more money in the long run backing Barca @1.7 a goal down than taking 1.1 pre kick off. Does the seven times higher price reflect value?
|
|
By:
you need to look at previous examples to get some idea , I would suggest
if you're technically minded there is a betfair/data site where you can download all information including IP prices, load it into a database and make all the queries you want. even then there is still a question as to whether you have proved anything imo |
|
By:
Horses that have a profile of prominent running in higher class races are worth betting back/lay.
|
|
By:
Swift - I'm with Tomdeane - you're argument makes no sense.
Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it. eg - I fancy a horse and think he should be 3/1. Disappointedly I see he's 11/4 - no bet. At the off he drifts like a barge and is available at 8/1. Does this make him a great bet for me?? No, because he's drifted for a reason. If I determine that I understand the reason for it drifting and disagree with the reasoning behind the drift I may still back the horse but at the snapshot of time at the off I can't make the horse 3/1 anymore because the dynamics of the market have changed and the probability of how likely my horse is to run a race have almost certainly increased significantly. |
|
By:
everybody betting from a level playing field pre-off but I wouldn't be looking for 'VALUE' bet in running against the sharks.
|
|
By:
every one not playing from a level playing field pre-off as there are many non-triers that a privileged few know about. Fergal O'brien had a special a few days back and i'm sure of few of you knew the coup but others were backing when his chances were basically a 1000 pre race as reckom most of the field would have had to fall for it to win given the shape it was in.
As for in running you have to be mad to bet anything with less than 4 fences to jump and as for attheraces you may as well burn your cash. |
|
By:
it wasn't an argument racingguru - in that I wasn't trying to convince anyone of my point of view.
it was simply a statement of fact. you said: Swift - I'm with Tomdeane - you're argument makes no sense. Value is only an opinion as a snapshot at any given moment in time. Once things start to change that opinion can and almost always does change with it. Forgetting about you're (sic) opening gambit, when you say that 'once things start to change that opinion can and almost always dose change with it', I started to laugh. The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? |
|
By:
The minute anyone mentions value I immediately think, ''hmm - he can't find many winners so he's looking to break even on the ones his pin does fall on occasionally.''
Isn't that the case with value seekers? If you're looking in the right place for your winners, the value as you call it is nearly always there. It's your method of finding winners that needs your attention. Not this intangible concept of value that you think will make up for your obvious lack of judgement. |