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The concept and measurement of value.
The concept and measurement of value.
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Some real know-it-alls who apparently know very little on this thread!
The whole point of obtaining value is because you are trying to beat the market. If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? swift - are you trying to say that if you think a horse is a 5-1 shot but it drifts to double that in the 10-minute period before a race that you still think it is a 5-1 shot? Sometimes horses are not trying, and no amount of pre-race work can pinpoint this! You have to have your own tissue and know at what prices you are willing to bet, but you have to be sensitive to things that are affecting the market and which you cannot possibly be aware of. The amount of fluctuating before the race starts might surprise a lot of people, but there is a huge difference between your notional 5-1 shot jumping from 7-2 to 7-1 and it drifting from 5-1 to 10-1. The minute anyone mentions value I immediately think, ''hmm - he can't find many winners so he's looking to break even on the ones his pin does fall on occasionally.'' Isn't that the case with value seekers? No, in a word. I agree that a lot of so-called value seekers have a lack of judgement and that if you look in the right place for your winners, the value is usually there. But the two are not mutually exclusive. Most people that lose money by following a value approach are not following a value approach at all - they just think they are. But there are plenty of winners who only win because they are value seekers. |
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tom
did you see my question back there? never got an answer from you the one about your tissue having it at 9.0 but you wouldn't back it at 11.0? cheers |
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The answer was in the same post -> history tells me I'm not good enough to be within 2% accurate in my tissue. I tend to bet only when I think there is a very big safety cushion in terms of the price I think I should get and the price I can get. We all have different ways of doing things and mine is to be conservative, waiting for these safety cushions, and then having bigger bets.
It does mean I have fewer bets than a lot of other people I know who either bet or trade for a living, but it works for me. I'll probably be accused of aftertiming, but to help show what I mean, I layed Taquin De Seuil in the Betfair as I was able to do so at 5.6. On my tissue he was a 9.0 chance, so I was happy to get involved there. I study around four races in depth each weekend, and will only play when I think the prices are right. Since the Betfair, I have only had one bet. Not on here to get into petty battles so will say good luck to you and wish you the best for the future. |
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With tomdeane on the drifters. The reality of horses drifting badly is that there will be in the vast majority of races a substantive reason for the drift i.e pulling hard on the way to the start or paddock behaviour or something that people close to the horse are aware of and voting with their fingers, we know it happens. This type of drift does not represent value imo.
Looking for value IR in racing is tough as the chairs are being rearranged very quickly, chuck in the ATR factor and you are swimming in murky waters. My point in the OP is related more to relative value before and during an event and how to make a judgement. Clearly in many cases it will be opinion and results based but still think there are clear overreactions in markets and opportunities. |
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I agree where there is a substantive reason for the drift but sometimes there is n't (or there is a reason but it is n't substantive).
Hey Big Spender Saturday before last - available at around 6s, 13/2 in the morning, stable had a winner at 10/1 earlier on the card, drifted to an SP of 12/1 and won with his head in his chest.I've no idea why he drifted other than the prevailing market/racing media opinion that he was 5lbs higher in a better race than the one he won last year (which overlooked his better effort first time out this year and the fact that he'd won the race off 150 a couple of years back). Some of the gambles are a bit flaky as well - Vukovar for the Tingle Creek would be a recent example, surely value is identifying correctly where the market is wrong and acting accordingly.Much easier to write than to do of course. |
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the only true representation of value is the end result which gives either a profit or a loss - if you keep beating the market odds (SP) with your bet it gives a realistic opportunity to achieve profit - most of my bets are on the exchange as i rarely bet @ less than double digit odds & the odds (comparing betfair to bookmaker SP) are far more favourable to achieve an overall profit accepting that i may have long losing runs which many bettors cannot accept - when in the middle of a losing run there is no doubt confidence evaporates pretty quickly but that is the time to have implicit trust in your methodology assuming it is tried and tested over a prolonged period
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so called value seekers may be just poor tissue compilers,
 i,m sure theres bookies out there who are experienced tissue compilers and good at it,but even though their job is to take a bet theres no way in the world they ,d stand in the ring with a huge discrepancy from the other boards who,ve followed betfair they,d say theres no need to ,because they can lay the horse at the betfair tissue price ,but if your good at it why other time wouldnt you want to take the lot the obvious reason is the betfair market is based on info most of us arent privy to,so tissues are basicaly worthless, the hendo boys looked like madmen laying the paper fancied dalawaan at tripple its morning odds against it stablemate and reading the form you,d say it belied its drift ,but only the inside boys new it was 20lb behind his stablemate and you only need 1 to beat it |
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years ago the shoe,nevo, mellish and co would be on the rattler to southwell and doing their tissue,if they put them in the middle of the table there ,d be 6 different tissues ,they,d spend the next hour arguing the toss, till they came up with a tissue they all agreed on,is that value or just someone arguing his point of view better than someone else
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whats the worst saying in racing one of the shoes favsm
its finished 5th but out run his price,why if your a layer and confident it wont win or be placed you can basicaly put any price up,just like the difference between the win price and a top 10 price in golf |
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^ This comes back to the need for a safety cushion though - even the best compilers in the game can't hope to be 100% accurate, but close enough is good enough...
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If you put up any price about a horse you didn't think would get placed, you'd be lucky to be eating baked beans in a few months... because, we're all wrong sometimes! A 500-1 chance has the chance to win any race, just by virtue of being in it... If you laid these at 250-1 the place you'd soon be in dire straits.
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not if you no something no one else does,
 ,theres 99% of those irish novice hurdle races where you can put up any price you like most are a hurdle behind by halfway |
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dalawaan, how's that spelt?
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A couple of years back you couldn't lay a hurdler/chaser at 1.01 until it was well clear on the run in.It was great value for the 1.01 backers.Nowadays with so many backers desperate for the easy money you can be matched with a hurdle to go,possibly even a fence if horse is 20 lengths clear.Value gone ?
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the 1.01 may well be value to the layer in that case
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surely the odds offered on betfair dont reflect whats going to or might happen but reflects different peoples positions,certain prices taken may well be value to both parties depending on a position they took pre event
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If you are saying that when the market changes, then your opinion changes with it ..... well really racingguru? _ Swift
You are very naive if you don't adjust when the market changes. The market is not perfect by any means but starting price odds are afar better reflection than early morning odds when it comes to a horses chance of winning and if my horses drift badly they almost always lose. By your argument I should be piling into these ones as surely the "value" has multiplied. Road to poorhouse IMO. Anyway if this is how you see things then good luck but you have a LOT to learn about making money from betting. |