TeaForThree to start fav for the National?

will be a bunch of them about 10/1 imo

Whatever AP rides will be a good deal shorter than the current price……..

Monbeg Dude

have backed teaforthree in this at 5/2 first show, thought it was a massive rick, 7/4 is still fair

teaforthree is trading at 10/1 on here right now, cannot possibly go off at any bigger than 8/1 on course unless he drifts on here

a million quid traded on here already, will be a few movers and shakers come the day but the market is already quite mature

massive drifter

and then you woke up

12s or bigger by the off. Will never start fav.

Monbeg Dude if papers splash him because of the royal connection. Pricewise if he tips one around the 14/1 mark. Whatever AP rides. Otherwise Teaforthree looks the most likely.

teaforthree could go off about 6's. Think the big punters are scratching around for opposition and will realise there isn't any. They will just pile into Tea knowing he is a handy racer, jumps well, better weight terms than 2013, virtually guaranteed to finish first three, let alone if you can get 6 places.

Its the same year on year for this market. There is always a horse a couple of points clear at the head of the betting. Then come saturday the Sun or RP tip something up that is all over the TV and media and a big gamble develops. Its an awful market for "favs" at the start of the week

what it the media tip Teaforthree?

the days of a national newspaper affecting the market to the extent that you are talking about are long gone

I repeat there is a million quid traded already on here, that is the market, and the prices on the day will be framed largely around that, albeit massively overround to about 150%

some people clearly don't know segal's current views on the national fences, you can have even money he tips up something in the top 8 in the racing post pricewise table, tis christmas after all

I dont think they will Pedro , you rarely see the fav tipped up.  I think last year it was all about On His Own with Ruby Walsh on then all the papers latched onto the idea Katie Walsh would beat her brother and become the first female winner and the next thing Seabass went off at 11-2 !

Year before Shakalakaboomboom was punted all over the place when Synchronised for AP  was fav all week

interesting wallis. Do you have a couple of candidates they might have their eyes on this time?

wallis, do you have the racing post price tables on the morning of the race for the last 2 years?

Not to hand wonders it just happened to be a market I was betting on for a while as it was profitable IF you could spot the way the media and public were going to sway.  The bookies cut nearly every horse and extend none going into the race so its not as simple as if one horse is backed the others are pushed out. You have so many horses all within a point or two on the day.

I have backed Rocky Creek at 20s and Double Seven at 10s so far and a saver on Monbeg dude at 3-1.

By the way wonders, Im not knocking your selection. Im just going on past experience and when the market opens up on here I will try and trade out my RC and DS bets hopefully in low single figures :)

Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

2013 morning PW table:

	Bet365	Betfred	BetVictor	Boyles	Coral	Hills	Ladbrokes	Power
Seabass	9	10	9	10	9	12	12	8
On His Own	9	9	8	9	9	12	12	8
Colbert Station	11	11	10	12	10	12	12	11
Cappa Bleu	12	12	11	12	12	12	12	12
Chicago Grey	14	12	12	12	14	12	12	14
Imperial Commander	16	16	16	16	14	18	16	16
Teaforthree	16	16	16	20	14	14	16	14
Sunnyhillboy	20	16	16	16	20	18	16	20
Balthazar King	20	16	16	16	20	18	20	16
Join Together	20	20	16	16	16	20	20	20
Rare Bob	22	22	20	16	18	18	16	22
Ballabriggs	20	18	16	25	20	20	14	16
Roberto Goldback	22	25	28	28	25	22	20	25
Always Waining	33	28	40	28	33	28	33	33
Soll	33	33	40	33	33	25	33	33
Treacle	33	33	40	33	40	33	33	28
Across The Bay	33	33	40	33	40	33	40	40
Big Fella Thanks	40	40	40	33	40	33	40	33
Harry The Viking	28	25	40	50	28	33	40	33
Quel Esprit	33	40	40	40	50	50	50	40
Quiscover Fontaine	50	33	40	50	50	28	50	33
Saint Are	28	50	50	50	50	33	66	33
Joncol	50	50	50	66	66	50	40	50
Lost Glory	66	66	50	50	66	33	40	50
Weird Al	50	50	50	50	50	66	66	66
What A Friend	50	50	66	66	66	66	66	66
Forpadydeplasterer	66	66	66	66	66	66	66	66
Oscar Time	80	66	80	50	80	66	50	66
Auroras Encore	80	50	80	66	80	50	80	66
Becauseicouldntsee	50	50	66	66	100	50	80	66
Swing Bill	100	80	80	66	66	66	80	66
The Rainbow Hunter	66	100	80	66	100	66	80	80
Ninetieth Minute	100	80	66	100	80	66	66	50
Tatenen	100	66	66	66	100	66	66	100
Viking Blond	100	80	100	50	100	100	80	80
Mr Moonshine	100	66	80	100	100	66	66	100
Major Malarkey	100	100	80	100	100	66	100	80
Tarquinius	100	100	100	66	150	66	80	100
Any Currency	100	100	100	100	150	66	66	100
Mumbles Head	100	150	150	100	150	100	150	100

no offence taken wallis - my view is that markets are so much different these days because of exchanges (even a lot different to say 5 years ago), ante-post markets are very mature these days

of course pricewise will have an effect, if he picks monbeg dude I'm fecked with teaforthree, I thought 5/2 was a 5 years ago price if you get my point, I guess it was since he's 7/4 now

PS I have got both tables on PDF, I just wondered if you were making your argument based on the morning of race prices v actual SP prices

GL with rocky creek, is by far the best of the front of the market imo

Damn. Should have added SP.

Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.

Long Run and Tidal Bay will be popular and arent bad choices at 5-1.  But I like DS for all the stupid reasons. Its looking like APs mount which will shave some points of it . The trainer has won the race before. Its also got a "seven" in its name which is going to bring in a lot of far east punters etc backing lucky 7.  The horses plan has always been for this race and it could get the Irish money as well (Papillion, Numbersevenvalverde ..)

RC is Nicholls and I think might be backed as the form pick.  Second to the Giant Bolster at Newbury , third in the Mildmay at Aintree last year behind Dynaste (so has course form) , and second in the Hennesey behind Triolo Dalene  (5 lb better off for 2 lengths).

Number SEVEN Valverde.. for gods sake , Ive got number 7 on the brain.

how about this

teaforthree
T  4   3

4+3 = 7

... apt for a race run at tea time

That could do it.   All you need is a picture of Uri Geller on the front cover of the sun explaining that sort of logic and you are weighed in

Tea (4+3) / 7 to one = 1 (st place).....

In the Far East, 8 is the lucky number not 7.

Ramruma     02 Apr 14 12:14 
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.


Not being ridden by AP is a bonus.

My Hot tip... Tidal Bay for FAV... now out to 20-1!!!

So a new prediction:

Long Run to be Fav at the off... 7-1, with T43 at 9-1, Burton point , rocky creek and Bathazar King all coming in to 12-1 and Monbeg Dude and Double Seven drifting to 14-1.

Double Seven is No 14 on the racecard with the McCoy/JP factor & that he has a good form choice with Munster National form and a stamina laden pedigree.Gotta be a plunge horse.

Really expect t43 to drift,no harm to him but a nick scholfield ridden horse wont start fav for the national.

What year was Monkerhostin plunged on 10 mins before the off to end up the jolly.

Not read the thread but if Monbeg Dude is not the Grand National jolly (PRICEWISEASIDE) I will go and stand in the Queens Bedroom....

Again -  and this time I will have my clothes on....

DS into 12s now from 20s a couple of days ago so not far off. Hopefully I can lay off near 3s.

Who are these arbers..

No wonder the rest of us cannot get a bet on...

Email me and I will send you a fiver and the address of the nearest food bank...

  Whats wrong with backing it at 10-1 with a few firms and laying here at a low price ?

We are bettors.We bet.

We are not Girls that want to make a fiver and then watch The X Factor...

Grow a pair..Or get a job that pays above minimum wage...

This site survives on people laying selections. If DS is 6-4 with firms to be fav on Saturday and I offer 3.5 on here then someone else is getting way over the odds and a great price.  The whole point of getting involved in this market is no different to any antepost one. If I can get on early at a great price I will lay it for no risk. Theres an art and skill in that , maybe you should try it rather than try and portray yourself as some moral guardian of betting ?

I am a moral guardian of nothing..

P isses me off when the half-wits come on to make a couple of quid....

Have a cup of tea.

My moral dilemma is that Teaforthree is too short.

home - you have no idea what my stakes are or my circumstances so why not get off the thread and go back to peeing in your pants over Kevin Pullein or some other RP writer. Leave the betting threads to people who want to have a sensible discussion about a market and its pros and cons.

Point taken....

However just because I am a regular poster it does not mean that I am "peeing my pants" over Pullein or any others...

I have quite a wide range of views...

All of them negative

Hey Fife the World is not right..

You are correct that I am mainly negative - but the trouble is that the people of today are being fed s hite and it worries me that the younger people will grow up in a World dominated by absolute chancers...

If I can make people step back and question the likes of the BBC and other jokers then I will continue to post on many websites...

homefortea







     homefortea   






  26 Dec 13 20:34 
Joined:


  06 Sep 04 
    | Topic/replies: 6,804  | Blogger: homefortea's blog   



If you think Liverpool will finish above Man Utd then it is indeed the Chinese Year Of The Cuckoo...


what a chancer

is the above the type of sh1te the people of today are being fed homefortea?

Keep it coming because I love it..

Unfortunately because I am not being "paid" to sit at a desk on Canary Wharf tonight I have to retire...

maleuk01 - the username says it all.

Keep jumping the threads you plant...

The real issue here is that mugs who rely on SP will be shafted as the over-round gathers momentum before the off. I can envisage at least 4 horses that will end up at 10s or less; Monbeg ,Tea, will probably end up as 7-1 joint favs.

I asked Betfair to put a market up on this on Wednesday. They haven't managed it yet and say they might do it Friday night. Clearly people are interested in it and several bookmakers have prices. Clearly the earlier the market goes up the more interesting it is. Why would they wait? Just think the operations department are stubborn, lazy and out of touch.

out of touch? betfair?

have saved on monbeg dude 4/1

I just saw that with VC wonders very big price ?    The Corals rep was on Talksport this morning saying that he expected a couple of gambles tomorrow and that we could end up with 3 or 4 joint favs around 10-1.  The whole royalty / Tindall thing with Monbeg Dude could make the 4-1 value.

huge difference between Rocky Creek being 7s with VC and 20s elsewhere.

the 4/1 is too big wallis, it will have to be the second move for monbeg dude if he is to go off fav (remember he was 20+ not that long ago), v possible though

cant have rocky creek as fav, he's got a lovely profile, not a lot of mileage left in his price though now

No Ive given up on Rocky. Still holding out on the AP factor and profile for Double Seven.

do you not think that the AP factor is built in already?

I dont think many punters will bet until the day after they have picked up their newspapers. I wouldnt expect any big players to get involved until the ground/rain/conditions etc are seen tomorrow.  You will see a couple of major moves tomorrow , just have to hope you are on the right one come 4.15 :)

I doubt any of the "big players" are going to get involved in AP's mount now if they haven't already done so at the bigger prices.

The obvious horse for them to back from amongst the current first ten in the market that still has juice in the price at 20's is Burton Port

Balthazar King to be tomorrows big gamble

My local bookie: 7-1 Tea,15-2 MD,9-1 LR. (Obviously to win race.)

who will win though T43 looks a solid place bet imho

Its going down to the wire.... this is more exciting that the race :D

"Come on Double Seven !!"

Steamship • April 4, 2014 12:35 PM BST
Balthazar King to be tomorrows big gamble

That may only happen late on if it doesnt rain.
However looking likely for potential heavy showers this afternoon.

Weird... not a single move yet today... in or out.

5/2 teaforthree is looking v juicy

It does. But there is always that worry that something around the 20's mark gets smashed into 5 mins before the off.

I can't control that, I have done the bit that I can control

nothing moves from 10 till 12 usually as firms go "best price in the village"

Luke Harvey trying to talk up Teaforthree so we know what he has backed !  Seemingly oblivious to the Oddschecker blue that is appearing on Double Seven now 12-1 joints in places.   Still no sign of the afternoon gamble - come on Rocky :D

double seven looking good now wallis

will be laying my nuts off on this if it goes single figures, its an absolutely ridiculous price now, he couldn't even remember the name of this when interviewed on RUK at ludlow a few weeks ago, now its fav for the national

yeah Ive laid out on here now at 2.0 as it might still be a dead heat.  Plenty of time to go yet though wonders.

nice one

I'm happy with my position

teaforthree big winner
monbeg dude, double seven,long run money back/small losers

I can see 4 joint favs coming here...

that's it lads keep shortening T43

single figures next stop

Bookies will somehow manage a single-figure SP fav in this race.

better get lined up lads get off to time 4.15

stupid w@nker starter shouting go on go on WTF

that start was a total disgrace

A sporting score draw wonders :)

joint favs

^very much, wd

decent result overall, got half teaforthree and half save double seven

v exciting market

Teaforthree to be fav backers have been totally shafted - he was the clear fav at 10s right to the time the tapes went up, with Double Seven 11/1. I had 2/1 on TFT with Betfried and was paid out a 1/2 - bloody disgrace, will never back on this **** market again!

long run was the SP fav on here, they did great to shorten teaforthree up to 10/1 imo