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nortonsaphire
01 Apr 14 22:51
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 75 | Blogger: nortonsaphire's blog
We can all see he is clear Fav at the moment, but is ODDS AGAINST being the SP fav. (2.75)

So who does start as Fav?

I'd go Tidal Bay. Class act and will get backed on the day.
Pause Switch to Standard View TeaForThree to start fav for the...
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Report Zazu April 1, 2014 11:00 PM BST
will be a bunch of them about 10/1 imo
Report flukes April 1, 2014 11:48 PM BST
Whatever AP rides will be a good deal shorter than the current price……..
Report Deltâ April 2, 2014 7:01 AM BST
Monbeg Dude
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 10:51 AM BST
have backed teaforthree in this at 5/2 first show, thought it was a massive rick, 7/4 is still fair

teaforthree is trading at 10/1 on here right now, cannot possibly go off at any bigger than 8/1 on course unless he drifts on here

a million quid traded on here already, will be a few movers and shakers come the day but the market is already quite mature
Report duncan idaho April 2, 2014 11:03 AM BST
massive drifter
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 11:23 AM BST
and then you woke up
Report wallis April 2, 2014 11:35 AM BST
12s or bigger by the off. Will never start fav.
Report Ramruma April 2, 2014 11:36 AM BST
Monbeg Dude if papers splash him because of the royal connection. Pricewise if he tips one around the 14/1 mark. Whatever AP rides. Otherwise Teaforthree looks the most likely.
Report pedrobob April 2, 2014 11:40 AM BST
teaforthree could go off about 6's. Think the big punters are scratching around for opposition and will realise there isn't any. They will just pile into Tea knowing he is a handy racer, jumps well, better weight terms than 2013, virtually guaranteed to finish first three, let alone if you can get 6 places.
Report wallis April 2, 2014 11:41 AM BST
Its the same year on year for this market. There is always a horse a couple of points clear at the head of the betting. Then come saturday the Sun or RP tip something up that is all over the TV and media and a big gamble develops. Its an awful market for "favs" at the start of the week
Report pedrobob April 2, 2014 11:44 AM BST
what it the media tip Teaforthree?
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 11:47 AM BST
the days of a national newspaper affecting the market to the extent that you are talking about are long gone

I repeat there is a million quid traded already on here, that is the market, and the prices on the day will be framed largely around that, albeit massively overround to about 150%

some people clearly don't know segal's current views on the national fences, you can have even money he tips up something in the top 8 in the racing post pricewise table, tis christmas after all Wink
Report wallis April 2, 2014 11:49 AM BST
I dont think they will Pedro , you rarely see the fav tipped up.  I think last year it was all about On His Own with Ruby Walsh on then all the papers latched onto the idea Katie Walsh would beat her brother and become the first female winner and the next thing Seabass went off at 11-2 !

Year before Shakalakaboomboom was punted all over the place when Synchronised for AP  was fav all week
Report pedrobob April 2, 2014 11:52 AM BST
interesting wallis. Do you have a couple of candidates they might have their eyes on this time?
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 11:54 AM BST
wallis, do you have the racing post price tables on the morning of the race for the last 2 years?
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:02 PM BST
Not to hand wonders it just happened to be a market I was betting on for a while as it was profitable IF you could spot the way the media and public were going to sway.  The bookies cut nearly every horse and extend none going into the race so its not as simple as if one horse is backed the others are pushed out. You have so many horses all within a point or two on the day.
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:04 PM BST
I have backed Rocky Creek at 20s and Double Seven at 10s so far and a saver on Monbeg dude at 3-1.
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:06 PM BST
By the way wonders, Im not knocking your selection. Im just going on past experience and when the market opens up on here I will try and trade out my RC and DS bets hopefully in low single figures :)
Report Facts April 2, 2014 12:08 PM BST
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '
Report Ramruma April 2, 2014 12:11 PM BST
2013 morning PW table:

Bet365 Betfred BetVictor Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes Power
Seabass 9 10 9 10 9 12 12 8
On His Own 9 9 8 9 9 12 12 8
Colbert Station 11 11 10 12 10 12 12 11
Cappa Bleu 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12
Chicago Grey 14 12 12 12 14 12 12 14
Imperial Commander 16 16 16 16 14 18 16 16
Teaforthree 16 16 16 20 14 14 16 14
Sunnyhillboy 20 16 16 16 20 18 16 20
Balthazar King 20 16 16 16 20 18 20 16
Join Together 20 20 16 16 16 20 20 20
Rare Bob 22 22 20 16 18 18 16 22
Ballabriggs 20 18 16 25 20 20 14 16
Roberto Goldback 22 25 28 28 25 22 20 25
Always Waining 33 28 40 28 33 28 33 33
Soll 33 33 40 33 33 25 33 33
Treacle 33 33 40 33 40 33 33 28
Across The Bay 33 33 40 33 40 33 40 40
Big Fella Thanks 40 40 40 33 40 33 40 33
Harry The Viking 28 25 40 50 28 33 40 33
Quel Esprit 33 40 40 40 50 50 50 40
Quiscover Fontaine 50 33 40 50 50 28 50 33
Saint Are 28 50 50 50 50 33 66 33
Joncol 50 50 50 66 66 50 40 50
Lost Glory 66 66 50 50 66 33 40 50
Weird Al 50 50 50 50 50 66 66 66
What A Friend 50 50 66 66 66 66 66 66
Forpadydeplasterer 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
Oscar Time 80 66 80 50 80 66 50 66
Auroras Encore 80 50 80 66 80 50 80 66
Becauseicouldntsee 50 50 66 66 100 50 80 66
Swing Bill 100 80 80 66 66 66 80 66
The Rainbow Hunter 66 100 80 66 100 66 80 80
Ninetieth Minute 100 80 66 100 80 66 66 50
Tatenen 100 66 66 66 100 66 66 100
Viking Blond 100 80 100 50 100 100 80 80
Mr Moonshine 100 66 80 100 100 66 66 100
Major Malarkey 100 100 80 100 100 66 100 80
Tarquinius 100 100 100 66 150 66 80 100
Any Currency 100 100 100 100 150 66 66 100
Mumbles Head 100 150 150 100 150 100 150 100
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 12:12 PM BST
no offence taken wallis - my view is that markets are so much different these days because of exchanges (even a lot different to say 5 years ago), ante-post markets are very mature these days

of course pricewise will have an effect, if he picks monbeg dude I'm fecked with teaforthree, I thought 5/2 was a 5 years ago price if you get my point, I guess it was since he's 7/4 now

PS I have got both tables on PDF, I just wondered if you were making your argument based on the morning of race prices v actual SP prices

GL with rocky creek, is by far the best of the front of the market imo
Report Ramruma April 2, 2014 12:12 PM BST
Damn. Should have added SP.
Report Ramruma April 2, 2014 12:14 PM BST
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:20 PM BST
Long Run and Tidal Bay will be popular and arent bad choices at 5-1.  But I like DS for all the stupid reasons. Its looking like APs mount which will shave some points of it . The trainer has won the race before. Its also got a "seven" in its name which is going to bring in a lot of far east punters etc backing lucky 7.  The horses plan has always been for this race and it could get the Irish money as well (Papillion, Numbersevenvalverde ..)

RC is Nicholls and I think might be backed as the form pick.  Second to the Giant Bolster at Newbury , third in the Mildmay at Aintree last year behind Dynaste (so has course form) , and second in the Hennesey behind Triolo Dalene  (5 lb better off for 2 lengths).
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:34 PM BST
Number SEVEN Valverde.. for gods sake , Ive got number 7 on the brain.
Report wondersobright April 2, 2014 12:41 PM BST
how about this

teaforthree
T  4   3

4+3 = 7LaughLaughLaugh
Report pedrobob April 2, 2014 12:49 PM BST
... apt for a race run at tea time
Report wallis April 2, 2014 12:50 PM BST
That could do it.   All you need is a picture of Uri Geller on the front cover of the sun explaining that sort of logic and you are weighed in Grin
Report pedrobob April 2, 2014 1:11 PM BST
Tea (4+3) / 7 to one = 1 (st place).....
Report Big_Issue April 2, 2014 1:52 PM BST
In the Far East, 8 is the lucky number not 7.
Report Facts April 2, 2014 2:36 PM BST
Ramruma     02 Apr 14 12:14 
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.


Not being ridden by AP is a bonus.
Report nortonsaphire April 3, 2014 7:44 PM BST
My Hot tip... Tidal Bay for FAV... now out to 20-1!!!

So a new prediction:

Long Run to be Fav at the off... 7-1, with T43 at 9-1, Burton point , rocky creek and Bathazar King all coming in to 12-1 and Monbeg Dude and Double Seven drifting to 14-1.
Report punkha1 April 3, 2014 7:58 PM BST
Double Seven is No 14 on the racecard with the McCoy/JP factor & that he has a good form choice with Munster National form and a stamina laden pedigree.Gotta be a plunge horse.
Report punkha1 April 3, 2014 8:00 PM BST
Really expect t43 to drift,no harm to him but a nick scholfield ridden horse wont start fav for the national.
Report Huggy April 3, 2014 8:04 PM BST
What year was Monkerhostin plunged on 10 mins before the off to end up the jolly.
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 8:06 PM BST
Not read the thread but if Monbeg Dude is not the Grand National jolly (PRICEWISELaughASIDE) I will go and stand in the Queens Bedroom....

Again -  and this time I will have my clothes on....
Report wallis April 3, 2014 8:07 PM BST
DS into 12s now from 20s a couple of days ago so not far off. Hopefully I can lay off near 3s.
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 8:09 PM BST
Who are these arbers..

No wonder the rest of us cannot get a bet on...

Email me and I will send you a fiver and the address of the nearest food bank...
Report wallis April 3, 2014 8:16 PM BST
Cool  Whats wrong with backing it at 10-1 with a few firms and laying here at a low price ?
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 8:20 PM BST
We are bettors.We bet.

We are not Girls that want to make a fiver and then watch The X Factor...

Grow a pair..Or get a job that pays above minimum wage...
Report wallis April 3, 2014 8:46 PM BST
This site survives on people laying selections. If DS is 6-4 with firms to be fav on Saturday and I offer 3.5 on here then someone else is getting way over the odds and a great price.  The whole point of getting involved in this market is no different to any antepost one. If I can get on early at a great price I will lay it for no risk. Theres an art and skill in that , maybe you should try it rather than try and portray yourself as some moral guardian of betting ?
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 8:49 PM BST
I am a moral guardian of nothing..

P isses me off when the half-wits come on to make a couple of quid....
Report Busvaldo April 3, 2014 8:53 PM BST
Have a cup of tea.

My moral dilemma is that Teaforthree is too short.
Report wallis April 3, 2014 8:59 PM BST
home - you have no idea what my stakes are or my circumstances so why not get off the thread and go back to peeing in your pants over Kevin Pullein or some other RP writer. Leave the betting threads to people who want to have a sensible discussion about a market and its pros and cons.
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 9:07 PM BST
Point taken....

However just because I am a regular poster it does not mean that I am "peeing my pants" over Pullein or any others...

I have quite a wide range of views...
Report fife April 3, 2014 9:10 PM BST
All of them negativeSad
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 9:36 PM BST
Hey Fife the World is not right..

You are correct that I am mainly negative - but the trouble is that the people of today are being fed s hite and it worries me that the younger people will grow up in a World dominated by absolute chancers...

If I can make people step back and question the likes of the BBC and other jokers then I will continue to post on many websites...
Report maleuk01. April 3, 2014 9:56 PM BST
homefortea







     homefortea   






  26 Dec 13 20:34 
Joined:


  06 Sep 04 
    | Topic/replies: 6,804  | Blogger: homefortea's blog   



If you think Liverpool will finish above Man Utd then it is indeed the Chinese Year Of The Cuckoo...


what a chancer LaughLaughLaugh
Report maleuk01. April 3, 2014 9:58 PM BST
is the above the type of sh1te the people of today are being fed homefortea?
Report homefortea April 3, 2014 10:05 PM BST
Keep it coming because I love it..

Unfortunately because I am not being "paid" to sit at a desk on Canary Wharf tonight I have to retire...

maleuk01 - the username says it all.

Keep jumping the threads you plant...

Laugh
Report call it a day April 3, 2014 10:13 PM BST
The real issue here is that mugs who rely on SP will be shafted as the over-round gathers momentum before the off. I can envisage at least 4 horses that will end up at 10s or less; Monbeg ,Tea, will probably end up as 7-1 joint favs.
Report leftitbehind April 4, 2014 7:23 AM BST
I asked Betfair to put a market up on this on Wednesday. They haven't managed it yet and say they might do it Friday night. Clearly people are interested in it and several bookmakers have prices. Clearly the earlier the market goes up the more interesting it is. Why would they wait? Just think the operations department are stubborn, lazy and out of touch.
Report wondersobright April 4, 2014 10:21 AM BST
out of touch? betfair? Laugh
Report wondersobright April 4, 2014 10:37 AM BST
have saved on monbeg dude 4/1
Report wallis April 4, 2014 10:50 AM BST
I just saw that with VC wonders very big price ?    The Corals rep was on Talksport this morning saying that he expected a couple of gambles tomorrow and that we could end up with 3 or 4 joint favs around 10-1.  The whole royalty / Tindall thing with Monbeg Dude could make the 4-1 value.
Report wallis April 4, 2014 10:51 AM BST
huge difference between Rocky Creek being 7s with VC and 20s elsewhere.
Report wondersobright April 4, 2014 11:03 AM BST
the 4/1 is too big wallis, it will have to be the second move for monbeg dude if he is to go off fav (remember he was 20+ not that long ago), v possible though

cant have rocky creek as fav, he's got a lovely profile, not a lot of mileage left in his price though now
Report wallis April 4, 2014 11:10 AM BST
No Ive given up on Rocky. Still holding out on the AP factor and profile for Double Seven.
Report wondersobright April 4, 2014 11:13 AM BST
do you not think that the AP factor is built in already?
Report wallis April 4, 2014 11:32 AM BST
I dont think many punters will bet until the day after they have picked up their newspapers. I wouldnt expect any big players to get involved until the ground/rain/conditions etc are seen tomorrow.  You will see a couple of major moves tomorrow , just have to hope you are on the right one come 4.15 :)
Report pedrobob April 4, 2014 12:05 PM BST
I doubt any of the "big players" are going to get involved in AP's mount now if they haven't already done so at the bigger prices.

The obvious horse for them to back from amongst the current first ten in the market that still has juice in the price at 20's is Burton Port
Report Steamship April 4, 2014 12:35 PM BST
Balthazar King to be tomorrows big gamble
Report call it a day April 4, 2014 2:01 PM BST
My local bookie: 7-1 Tea,15-2 MD,9-1 LR. (Obviously to win race.)
Report G Hall April 4, 2014 6:34 PM BST
who will win though T43 looks a solid place bet imho
Report wallis April 5, 2014 9:46 AM BST
Its going down to the wire.... this is more exciting that the race :D

"Come on Double Seven !!"
Report geoff m April 5, 2014 9:49 AM BST
Steamship • April 4, 2014 12:35 PM BST
Balthazar King to be tomorrows big gamble

That may only happen late on if it doesnt rain.
However looking likely for potential heavy showers this afternoon.
Report nortonsaphire April 5, 2014 11:13 AM BST
Weird... not a single move yet today... in or out.
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 11:16 AM BST
5/2 teaforthree is looking v juicy Cool
Report nortonsaphire April 5, 2014 11:22 AM BST
It does. But there is always that worry that something around the 20's mark gets smashed into 5 mins before the off.
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 11:28 AM BST
I can't control that, I have done the bit that I can control
Report wallis April 5, 2014 11:41 AM BST
nothing moves from 10 till 12 usually as firms go "best price in the village"
Report wallis April 5, 2014 12:44 PM BST
Luke Harvey trying to talk up Teaforthree so we know what he has backed !  Seemingly oblivious to the Oddschecker blue that is appearing on Double Seven now 12-1 joints in places.   Still no sign of the afternoon gamble - come on Rocky :D
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 1:58 PM BST
double seven looking good now wallis

will be laying my nuts off on this if it goes single figures, its an absolutely ridiculous price now, he couldn't even remember the name of this when interviewed on RUK at ludlow a few weeks ago, now its fav for the national Blush
Report wallis April 5, 2014 2:20 PM BST
yeah Ive laid out on here now at 2.0 as it might still be a dead heat.  Plenty of time to go yet though wonders.
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 2:23 PM BST
nice one

I'm happy with my position

teaforthree big winner
monbeg dude, double seven,long run money back/small losers
Report wallis April 5, 2014 2:24 PM BST
I can see 4 joint favs coming here...
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 3:59 PM BST
that's it lads keep shortening T43

single figures next stop
Report Mr Magoo April 5, 2014 4:11 PM BST
Bookies will somehow manage a single-figure SP fav in this race.
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 4:12 PM BST
better get lined up lads get off to time 4.15 Laugh
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 4:16 PM BST
stupid w@nker starter shouting go on go on WTF ShockedShocked
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 4:18 PM BST
that start was a total disgrace Cry
Report wallis April 5, 2014 4:39 PM BST
A sporting score draw wonders :)

joint favs
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 4:50 PM BST
^very much, wd

decent result overall, got half teaforthree and half save double seven

v exciting market
Report Derbyshire Racing April 5, 2014 7:48 PM BST
Teaforthree to be fav backers have been totally shafted - he was the clear fav at 10s right to the time the tapes went up, with Double Seven 11/1. I had 2/1 on TFT with Betfried and was paid out a 1/2 - bloody disgrace, will never back on this **** market again!
Report wondersobright April 5, 2014 9:04 PM BST
long run was the SP fav on here, they did great to shorten teaforthree up to 10/1 imo
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