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nortonsaphire
01 Apr 14 22:51
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Date Joined: 28 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 75 | Blogger: nortonsaphire's blog
We can all see he is clear Fav at the moment, but is ODDS AGAINST being the SP fav. (2.75)

So who does start as Fav?

I'd go Tidal Bay. Class act and will get backed on the day.

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Replies: 85
By:
Zazu
When: 01 Apr 14 23:00
will be a bunch of them about 10/1 imo
By:
flukes
When: 01 Apr 14 23:48
Whatever AP rides will be a good deal shorter than the current price……..
By:
Deltâ
When: 02 Apr 14 07:01
Monbeg Dude
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 10:51
have backed teaforthree in this at 5/2 first show, thought it was a massive rick, 7/4 is still fair

teaforthree is trading at 10/1 on here right now, cannot possibly go off at any bigger than 8/1 on course unless he drifts on here

a million quid traded on here already, will be a few movers and shakers come the day but the market is already quite mature
By:
duncan idaho
When: 02 Apr 14 11:03
massive drifter
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 11:23
and then you woke up
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 11:35
12s or bigger by the off. Will never start fav.
By:
Ramruma
When: 02 Apr 14 11:36
Monbeg Dude if papers splash him because of the royal connection. Pricewise if he tips one around the 14/1 mark. Whatever AP rides. Otherwise Teaforthree looks the most likely.
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Apr 14 11:40
teaforthree could go off about 6's. Think the big punters are scratching around for opposition and will realise there isn't any. They will just pile into Tea knowing he is a handy racer, jumps well, better weight terms than 2013, virtually guaranteed to finish first three, let alone if you can get 6 places.
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 11:41
Its the same year on year for this market. There is always a horse a couple of points clear at the head of the betting. Then come saturday the Sun or RP tip something up that is all over the TV and media and a big gamble develops. Its an awful market for "favs" at the start of the week
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Apr 14 11:44
what it the media tip Teaforthree?
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 11:47
the days of a national newspaper affecting the market to the extent that you are talking about are long gone

I repeat there is a million quid traded already on here, that is the market, and the prices on the day will be framed largely around that, albeit massively overround to about 150%

some people clearly don't know segal's current views on the national fences, you can have even money he tips up something in the top 8 in the racing post pricewise table, tis christmas after all Wink
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 11:49
I dont think they will Pedro , you rarely see the fav tipped up.  I think last year it was all about On His Own with Ruby Walsh on then all the papers latched onto the idea Katie Walsh would beat her brother and become the first female winner and the next thing Seabass went off at 11-2 !

Year before Shakalakaboomboom was punted all over the place when Synchronised for AP  was fav all week
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Apr 14 11:52
interesting wallis. Do you have a couple of candidates they might have their eyes on this time?
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 11:54
wallis, do you have the racing post price tables on the morning of the race for the last 2 years?
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:02
Not to hand wonders it just happened to be a market I was betting on for a while as it was profitable IF you could spot the way the media and public were going to sway.  The bookies cut nearly every horse and extend none going into the race so its not as simple as if one horse is backed the others are pushed out. You have so many horses all within a point or two on the day.
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:04
I have backed Rocky Creek at 20s and Double Seven at 10s so far and a saver on Monbeg dude at 3-1.
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:06
By the way wonders, Im not knocking your selection. Im just going on past experience and when the market opens up on here I will try and trade out my RC and DS bets hopefully in low single figures :)
By:
Facts
When: 02 Apr 14 12:08
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '
By:
Ramruma
When: 02 Apr 14 12:11
2013 morning PW table:

Bet365 Betfred BetVictor Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes Power
Seabass 9 10 9 10 9 12 12 8
On His Own 9 9 8 9 9 12 12 8
Colbert Station 11 11 10 12 10 12 12 11
Cappa Bleu 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12
Chicago Grey 14 12 12 12 14 12 12 14
Imperial Commander 16 16 16 16 14 18 16 16
Teaforthree 16 16 16 20 14 14 16 14
Sunnyhillboy 20 16 16 16 20 18 16 20
Balthazar King 20 16 16 16 20 18 20 16
Join Together 20 20 16 16 16 20 20 20
Rare Bob 22 22 20 16 18 18 16 22
Ballabriggs 20 18 16 25 20 20 14 16
Roberto Goldback 22 25 28 28 25 22 20 25
Always Waining 33 28 40 28 33 28 33 33
Soll 33 33 40 33 33 25 33 33
Treacle 33 33 40 33 40 33 33 28
Across The Bay 33 33 40 33 40 33 40 40
Big Fella Thanks 40 40 40 33 40 33 40 33
Harry The Viking 28 25 40 50 28 33 40 33
Quel Esprit 33 40 40 40 50 50 50 40
Quiscover Fontaine 50 33 40 50 50 28 50 33
Saint Are 28 50 50 50 50 33 66 33
Joncol 50 50 50 66 66 50 40 50
Lost Glory 66 66 50 50 66 33 40 50
Weird Al 50 50 50 50 50 66 66 66
What A Friend 50 50 66 66 66 66 66 66
Forpadydeplasterer 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
Oscar Time 80 66 80 50 80 66 50 66
Auroras Encore 80 50 80 66 80 50 80 66
Becauseicouldntsee 50 50 66 66 100 50 80 66
Swing Bill 100 80 80 66 66 66 80 66
The Rainbow Hunter 66 100 80 66 100 66 80 80
Ninetieth Minute 100 80 66 100 80 66 66 50
Tatenen 100 66 66 66 100 66 66 100
Viking Blond 100 80 100 50 100 100 80 80
Mr Moonshine 100 66 80 100 100 66 66 100
Major Malarkey 100 100 80 100 100 66 100 80
Tarquinius 100 100 100 66 150 66 80 100
Any Currency 100 100 100 100 150 66 66 100
Mumbles Head 100 150 150 100 150 100 150 100
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 12:12
no offence taken wallis - my view is that markets are so much different these days because of exchanges (even a lot different to say 5 years ago), ante-post markets are very mature these days

of course pricewise will have an effect, if he picks monbeg dude I'm fecked with teaforthree, I thought 5/2 was a 5 years ago price if you get my point, I guess it was since he's 7/4 now

PS I have got both tables on PDF, I just wondered if you were making your argument based on the morning of race prices v actual SP prices

GL with rocky creek, is by far the best of the front of the market imo
By:
Ramruma
When: 02 Apr 14 12:12
Damn. Should have added SP.
By:
Ramruma
When: 02 Apr 14 12:14
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:20
Long Run and Tidal Bay will be popular and arent bad choices at 5-1.  But I like DS for all the stupid reasons. Its looking like APs mount which will shave some points of it . The trainer has won the race before. Its also got a "seven" in its name which is going to bring in a lot of far east punters etc backing lucky 7.  The horses plan has always been for this race and it could get the Irish money as well (Papillion, Numbersevenvalverde ..)

RC is Nicholls and I think might be backed as the form pick.  Second to the Giant Bolster at Newbury , third in the Mildmay at Aintree last year behind Dynaste (so has course form) , and second in the Hennesey behind Triolo Dalene  (5 lb better off for 2 lengths).
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:34
Number SEVEN Valverde.. for gods sake , Ive got number 7 on the brain.
By:
wondersobright
When: 02 Apr 14 12:41
how about this

teaforthree
T  4   3

4+3 = 7LaughLaughLaugh
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Apr 14 12:49
... apt for a race run at tea time
By:
wallis
When: 02 Apr 14 12:50
That could do it.   All you need is a picture of Uri Geller on the front cover of the sun explaining that sort of logic and you are weighed in Grin
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Apr 14 13:11
Tea (4+3) / 7 to one = 1 (st place).....
By:
Big_Issue
When: 02 Apr 14 13:52
In the Far East, 8 is the lucky number not 7.
By:
Facts
When: 02 Apr 14 14:36
Ramruma     02 Apr 14 12:14 
Burton Port could be a ' springer  '

He could be, but so could many others. I suspect some have cottoned onto the Jonjo angle but not realised he is not JP-owned and AP-ridden.


Not being ridden by AP is a bonus.
By:
nortonsaphire
When: 03 Apr 14 19:44
My Hot tip... Tidal Bay for FAV... now out to 20-1!!!

So a new prediction:

Long Run to be Fav at the off... 7-1, with T43 at 9-1, Burton point , rocky creek and Bathazar King all coming in to 12-1 and Monbeg Dude and Double Seven drifting to 14-1.
By:
punkha1
When: 03 Apr 14 19:58
Double Seven is No 14 on the racecard with the McCoy/JP factor & that he has a good form choice with Munster National form and a stamina laden pedigree.Gotta be a plunge horse.
By:
punkha1
When: 03 Apr 14 20:00
Really expect t43 to drift,no harm to him but a nick scholfield ridden horse wont start fav for the national.
By:
Huggy
When: 03 Apr 14 20:04
What year was Monkerhostin plunged on 10 mins before the off to end up the jolly.
By:
homefortea
When: 03 Apr 14 20:06
Not read the thread but if Monbeg Dude is not the Grand National jolly (PRICEWISELaughASIDE) I will go and stand in the Queens Bedroom....

Again -  and this time I will have my clothes on....
By:
wallis
When: 03 Apr 14 20:07
DS into 12s now from 20s a couple of days ago so not far off. Hopefully I can lay off near 3s.
By:
homefortea
When: 03 Apr 14 20:09
Who are these arbers..

No wonder the rest of us cannot get a bet on...

Email me and I will send you a fiver and the address of the nearest food bank...
By:
wallis
When: 03 Apr 14 20:16
Cool  Whats wrong with backing it at 10-1 with a few firms and laying here at a low price ?
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