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...is Flyingbolt.
2 abnormally exceptional horses against any standard before and after from the same trainer and time period?
2 abnormally exceptional horses against any standard before and after from the same trainer and time period?
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Clusters happen!
Kauto and Denman! That bunch of hurdlers in the seventies! My Swallow, Cawston's Pride, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard in the SAME 2yo season. It is the statistically valid opposite of "s hit happens" |
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212&210
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I wouldn't totally support the Timeform ratings,but the OP is not far out
 .."2 abnormally exceptional horses against any standard before and after from the same trainer and time period?" |
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Way, way before my time but really enjoyed the documentary about Arkle on TV during the week. I didn't really appreciate some of the weights he carried in a few of those big handicaps that he won. Incredible.
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can you imagine him taking 20 plus lengths off desert orchid or kauto star off levels, it's just so hard to get your head around?
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as well as having the good horses in a bygone era, it helped if the trainers were also a bit better than their counterparts as shown by Vincent O'Brien in his jumping days
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Do you seriously think it cudda give a top peak DENMAN or KAUTO STAR at least 20lbs ?
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I seriously think that over 2.5miles or more, Arkle would have given either at least a stone.
Over two miles I'd need Flyingbolt |
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A King George Chase at Kempton with Arkle on 12 st ......you really don't think Kauto Star would not pick him off with 10 7.
Arkle and Flyingbolt battered their contemparies . And I agree , the adulation from the people old enough to recall himself as one big problem for us whippersnappers born in 64. Kauto Star & Denman faced each other , Arkle and Flyingbolt did not. It is only a handicappers view that Arkle was the best horse of all time , he may not have been the best in his stable. |
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When Mill House came on the scene Fulke Walwyn claimed he was the best since Golden Miller, that he was pretty much invincable over fences - how wrong he was!
Interestingly pretty much everybody connected with Arkle & Flyingbolt believed Flyingbolt the better horse, and I don't just mean faster. Worth checking out his weight carrying performances. |
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sixtwosix - re Arkle vs Flyingbolt. There is quite good collateral form through Height of Fashion that puts them close, but most sources (including Taafe himself) states that Arkle was not fully wound up that day. The 66 Whitbread handicapper has them 2lbs apart, and the next horse What A Myth on 9st 8lbs! based on a literal interpretation of the form. I'd have them 7-10lbs apart.
Re the King George, Arkle WAS a fast flat track three miler as his performances show. The race to see against Kauto would be 3 miles at Sandown, that would have been some sight. I would back Arkle at a stone difference. The fact that at the pace they would go Arkle wouldn't fall and Kauto might would be a bonus |
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it's seriously messed with the timeform ratings, in effect the greatest horse that ever lived has been and gone and the chances of anything being rated that high is highly unlikely
they've managed to massage flat and to some degree hurdle ratings but it's not very easy to massage 20lbs off the chase numbers if you put kauto on steroids you'd be pushed to expect 20lb improvement, it just seems beyond the physical capability of the animal to be that fast lumping that weight |
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Mandarin - your statement is not, absolutely not true. Most believed he could have been, I would concede.
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Elise - Gallagher Gold Cup 1965!
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yes barn, i think that is where the 212 came from if memory serves me right, maybe they timed it wrong ? lol
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I wouldn't have it that quick, Elise. but it was b loody quick with 12st 7lbs.
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i'm sure it's right, it's just such a difficult thing to imagine
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I wonder if Desert Orchid was not lovingly referred to as "Dessie" and therefore not loathed by some because of that, then he'd be rated higher than the likes of Kauto and Denman
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I'll say it again if Arkle and Flyingbolt hadnt existed then Mill House would have won at least 3 GCs and probably by big margins also. Over the GC distance at Cheltenham Kauto would have had no chance against Arkle.
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To what extent does technology and modern training methods make a difference? If Arkle was in training now, would he be any better?
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The Gallaher was probably Arkle's greatest moment but there were a lot of competitors. Flyingbolt had only one season at the top after his novice days whereas Arkle had three and a half.
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To what extent does technology and modern training methods make a difference? If Arkle was in training now, would he be any better?
I don't reckon it would have made hardly any difference, I think Tom Dreaper and Pat Taaffe got the best out of Arkle. He had an overwhelming record of 27 wins from 35 starts, at times carrying over two stones more than his rivals. What made him so great: He was bred by steeplechasing people of jumping stock TO BE A STEEPLECHASER: He was trained by one wise man who was brilliant with horses: He was ridden by a superlative steeplechasing jockey: Plus his own courage and brilliance: A beautifully organised career. Don't think any technology and modern methods could have made him any better. |
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I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning behind the 212/210. There must have been some. I don't know whether it was obtained Irish form or british form, or both.
If you use Rondetto (who won the 3m hcap chase at the Cheltenham festival with top weight), and Stalbridge Colonist (who had hcap form with Rondetto putting him about 20lb better than the latter), you can easily get Arkle over 200. Phil Smith said some time ago he was going to revisit Arkle's rating, as he suspected the rating was over the top. He hasn't reported back, so I wonder whether he didn't get the answer he wanted to get. |
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Very nicely put by Hound-Dog.
A horse is either fit or not. That Arkle could carry such huge weights over long distances with such effect showed that he was seriously fit...similarly with others like e.g. Red Rum. Some people are tempted to think that everything modern is automatically superior to what was there before. In most cases though techniques are not better -they're just different ...and today there's much more spin and hyped up advertising by round the clock media to persuade us that we live in some kind of newly constructed utopia. |
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I quite enjoyed watching the Arkle doc umentary the other night (it was good to see clips of Tom Dreaper talking - amazing what success he had with a stable of about 40 horses - he won the Irish National 7 years in a row with 7 different horses - including 2 horses who were outstanding champions at 2 miles - Fortria and Flyingbolt - and his Cheltenham record was amazing. He also trained Prince Regent, who is largely forgotten these days, but was considered by some as the best chaser ever at the time (the 1940s)).
But I did think the program was a bit light on race detail - they showed, a couple of times, Arkle winning the Whitbread giving away 3 stone to the 2nd, but they never even mentioned the race or said where it was. The program seemed (to me) more concerned with the nature of Arkle, and his fame, rather than the magnitude of his achievements. There was no mention of his Massey-Ferguson effort, with 12-10, just a week after the Hennessey. |
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Even if one allows for the term "freak of nature" being given to Arkle, two freaks living next door to each other at the same time? It makes no sense.
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No law says it can't happen JackQ.
Life doesn't come in neat spaced out packages of events to suit our sense of how things 'should be'. |
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The argument that something can't be true because it's statistically unlikely seems a very desperate one to me.
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I have a slight problem with that myself jack
I think Flyingbolt may have been over rated myself Also Flyingbolt was one of those horses who seemed to come and go in one season I can think of Denman, maybe even Sacre Bleu,although we don't know for sure yet some others I would say Arkle rating right, maybe Flyingbolt wrong myself |
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They weren't freaks, they were vastly superior to their rivals though.
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most human athletes have improved 10 fold in 40 years why would horses be any different, todays old store horses struggle to keep up with french breds,ex flat speedier types,
saw a clip of little owl beating night nurse in gold cup,couldnt believe how a high class champion hurdle horse like night nurse finished strongly up the hill in a gold cup |
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Even if one allows for the term "freak of nature" being given to Arkle, two freaks living next door to each other at the same time? It makes no sense.
Whilst they are not in the Arkle or Flyingbolt class, couldn't Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig be another example ?. Blackbarn has already pointed out My Swallow, Cawstons Pride, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard in the same 2yo season (1970), you could also add Nijinsky a year earlier. |
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ebul - Flyingbolt won at Cheltenham 3 years in a row - 3 different races. In the first year, he won the Supreme Novices by daylight at 4/9, still the shortest price ever for the race. In his 3rd ever hurdle race, as a novice, he'd beaten the reigning champion hurdler.
2 years later, he won the Champion Chase, by daylight at 1/5, still the shortest price ever. |
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Love these threads bring back so many great memories of jumping in the 60/70s
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But both horses 20lbs better than anything else ever? Both of them? It is almost as bizarre as their supporters' willingness to accept it as it is without question.
Kauto and Denman were still rated within touching distance of the rest. Arkle and Flyingbolt both rated in a way that would see them put Mauro Star and Denman out of the handicap in a Hennessey? |
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Kauto Star of course not Mauro Star, though I'm sure Mauro Star is good too.
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Well if they'd been running in Arkle's day, they wouldn't be out of the handicap. They'd have been carrying about 11-0, with Arkle on 12-7. That means Kauto would still have had to give a stone to Stalbridge Colonist and What A Myth, who between them won and were placed in Gold Cups. Could Kauto have given them a stone? - perhaps.
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The idea that a Champion Hurdler can't stay 3m over fences is based on the current situation where the Stayers Hurdle has almost the same prestige as the Champion. Simply wasn't true till the 1990s. Running a hurdler over 3m was a rather desperate ploy if they had conclusively proved they weren't top class over 2m. Bula and of course Dawn Run were both 3m chasers.
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What seems to have been overlooked is the Timeform was fairly new when Arkle was running. Phil Bull had a ratings system/formula based on distance run, weight carried and lbs per length etc. When he applied that to Arkle it resulted in 212. Timeform have used the same rating system/formula on every jumper since that day and none have matched him or came close. This isn't about personal opinions so cannot be skewed. Unlike their flat ratings I may add.
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