Anyone else just looking at the Arkle and thinking..........

The age factor only thing that puts me off but all of the market leaders have doubts

Would love to know how many 9 year old 160+ hurdlers have ran in the Arkle, my guess is very few and the reason why I'm going to ignore the age stat this year.

the Doncaster run returned a fair time, and he done it head in chest

Champagne fever has obvious potential to run to a high mark an you could be putting your faith in a lot worse places than Willie Mullins, but at the price that is what you're doing

Yeah, pretty spot from the OP. Loves the track, perfect conditions, just needs someone to give him a lead and he'd have every chance providing he puts in a decent round of jumping. I'm struggling to oppose him

Overturn all over again.... won't even place (imo)

yeah he was pretty underwhelming in the arkle Peds

I just think the market is slightly underestimating him on the balance of things

Very inexperienced for an Arkle winner.  Not beaten anything yet - just run in a couple of minor races.  At the prices Dodging Bullets looks far more solid.  Course form, ground will be ideal, and has graded race wins to his name.

The fact that he's won just a couple of matches* disturbs me greatly.

It's OK for Andy Murray but...

*yep, 3 runners in his first gig but the no hoper unseated early on.

I can't believe people are questioning ROR class, he's top top rated hurdler(167)so if he jumps he's gonna be hard to beat, his jumping was impressive to me at doncaster, fiddled a few at plumpton but learn't for next time, sign of a very good horse.

think the only reason he has no chasing form to recommend him is he has been prepared for Cheltenham as he doesn't like heavy and this is his time of year should have been well schooled and and at that price e.w is a bet to nothing.

Just come back from Cheltenham preview and Chemical Nicky gave a good word for Alan Kings runner
Only fancied a placed effort from his own runner
Strange BUT true

don't fancy ror , very rarely puts in a clear round , want get away with it here ? irish has a strong ,hand Alan king really likes valsez , i think the ground is going too be a major factor too all the races . very dodgy backing anti post with the ground drying up ?

miles better hurdler than a chaser. lay.

cert loser

On already Judge. Trust ROR to have learnt enough from his recent outings over the big ones. Stable going well and jockey red hot. This will do for me!

9 horses were aged 9+ when appearing in the Arkle since 1999 (from 161 runners)

Not a big representation, but none placed and included five rated 146+ over hurdles the season before who got no closer than 18 lengths behind the winner

year    horse name    pos    DistBtn    sp    Age    hurdle rating

2002    Barton            7    34    9/2    9    165
2003    Stage Affair    6    35    20/1    9    147
2003    Ricardo            7    53    100/1    9    124
2003    Adamant Apprch    F    F    7/1    9    138
2005    Ned Kelly    9    20    12/1    9    163
2005    Town Crier    13    41    50/1    10    105
2008    Premiership    P    PU    400/1    12   
2010    Captain Cee Bee    8    18    5/2    9    146
2013    Overturn    4    30    7/2    9    166

Champagne Fever is going to get his 'easy' lead again. Hasn't anyone watched his career? The other eight jocks are surely not going to be mug enough to concede it, are they? Gigginstown a big mistake in not running Arnaud.

diff.......think you are right about arnauld........improves CF chances no end

That list of 9-yo's looks a bit ropey. 4 of them were massive prices. 1 fell, another couldn't win on the ground. Don't seem to have a lot in common with Rock On Ruby.

Front runners have a terrible record in the arkle, only azertyuiop has made virtually all since 1980.

stats wont stop a horse winning

Imo CF doesn't jump well enough to win a arkle.

That list of 9-yo's looks a bit ropey. 4 of them were massive prices. 1 fell, another couldn't win on the ground. Don't seem to have a lot in common with Rock On Ruby.

Three of them were similar 160+ rated hurdlers who got no closer than 20 lengths to the winner, a couple similarly short prices and apparently well fancied?

Barton had a novice chase record of 21111, winning his last 4 starts by 83 lengths
Overturn was 111 going to Cheltenham, aggregate 68 lengths

stats wont stop a horse winning

think you can come up with plenty of reasons why 9yos+ would have a poor record in an Arkle without having the stats to tell you ....

A horse who has jumped well in all its starts over fences and has progressed nicely with a good run at the Festival on its CV is Trifolium, will be disappointed if it isn't fighting out the finish at the very least

Very tricky race that 2moro from a betting point of view for me.
Just love Champagne Fever but cant take myself to betting him a about 3s with such limited chase form. Prob just a watching one for me this race on punting terms.
Will be on my lucky 15 tho, for a bit of raceday fun
Gd luck with your selections lads.

CF won his point to point race and has always been a chaser in the making tomorrow you might look back at the arkle and think everything he achieved over hurdles was a bonus we shall see best of luck with ur selections

never a moment's worry

Shocker
The "Batman" hood does the trick eh, well once anyway
Great effort by Fever, only to get mugged on the line
Plenty more to come from him over a trip next season.