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What im saying Teabag is, whatever Ruby tells the press is not always what he is thinking.
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Those saying where Annie Power runs is to suit Ruby's selfishness and that he decided matters, that he has so much clout and such and such, do you know that for sure or is it just a massive assumption?
I'd personally have thought if he was more worried about himself he could have suggested Annie Power go elsewhere and then maybe put himself in like to ride Big Buck's instead. |
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Best win bet of the Cheltenham 4 days = Annie Power
Best lay bet of the Cheltenham 4 days = Sire De Grugy ![]() |
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Would have thought if AP is the beat win bet, the BB must be the bet lay bet?
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I understand your reasoning Koi, but Sire is shorter in price
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looks like the "S" is stuck on my keyboard reading that lol
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A lot of people going to get burnt from this hype horse annie power.
I cant see how anybody could possibly see it as being a good bet. Even if i was offered 201/ on the win market, i would not touch it. |
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Why have people been saying Ruby Walsh thinks Annie Power will beat Big Bucks. Just read this Ruby interview on eurosport website. I get the impression he is hopeful ap will stay(no more than hopeful). He gives the impression that he is devestated he cant ride big bucks imo. Reading between the lines i dont think Ruby believes Ap has any chance of beating the machine that is Big Bucks.
Irish trainer Willie Mullins revealed on Sunday that the in-form Annie Power will line up alongside Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle a week on Thursday. The six-year-old mare has never raced over more than 2m5f but Walsh expects her to handle the trip confidently, after easily beating Zarkander on soft ground at Cheltenham in January. "I think she will stay. Her pedigree is all stamina," said the jockey. "The further she goes, the more it'll suit her, but you can't really be certain until she goes and does it. "She's never run over three miles, but things had to be considered and that's where we feel she has her best chance. "Willie has asked my opinion and everything had to be weighed up and we all felt it is the right race for her. "There are four or five outstanding horses in the Champion Hurdle and maybe two, possibly three, in the World Hurdle." However, being able to stay the trip alone is not enough to beat festival favourite Big Buck's and few people know the Paul Nicholls-trained 11-year-old better than Walsh. "He's a hell of a good horse and he'll be very hard to beat," he added. "I've had ten months to come to terms that I wouldn't be riding him so I've put that out of my mind." |
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Ima like Nicholls before him Mullins relies heavily on what Ruby tells him. Not saying he's a nodding idiot but that's a fact. This situation is very similar to the Quevega one. If Big Bucks had've been trained by say Henderson I've no doubt Ruby would've persuaded Mullins to run Quevega in the World Hurdle.
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'She's never run over 3 miles but we felt it is the right race'
'there are 4 or 5 outstanding horses in the champion, and maybe two or three in the world' ...ermmm there's only one in the mares Rooby Win or lose, this isn't the best decision for the horse, imo |
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Theres only one outstanding horse in the world hurdle. Does anybody have any idea who the other outstanding horses are he is referring to?
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RTE interviewer."if the race is run to suit both horses,and both turn to face the hill together,at what time will you know for certain annie can beat Big Bucks"Rubys answer"last april"
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I think you will find that comment was a joke brass.
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Day 1 decs, Annie Power still in the Champion Hurdle (12 declared) and the Mares' Hurdle (21 declared).
I assume the World Hurdle is still the plan unless the Champ Hurdle cuts up badly. |
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One thing I know is that if I'm backing something in a Cheltenham festival race at odds as short as she is I don't want any doubts.
In this case the trip is an unknown, the only time she's taken on a double figure field over hurdles was when she won her maiden race and it's entirely possible the ground will be quicker than anything she's ever won on as well. With that in mind there's a nagging thought in my mind that her jumping was put under pressure when they quickened up over the last 4 hurdles at Ascot last November on what was the fastest ground she's encountered. She could make all those doubts look silly but it's not profitable backing horses with that sort of profile in the long term. At the price she's the lay of the meeting for me at the moment. |
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Two other horse who had their first run over three miles in the World Hurdle... The 'value' may have gone, but there was lots of Non-Runner no bet around at 10/1 downwards for months before Sundays announcement. There was no logical reason to think she'd miss this race, unless she went to Aintree... and even then it's NRNB so a no lose if she didn't turn up. The think she's gonna win a Gold Cup one day, so you'd expect her to get 3 miles
1 Inglis Drever 5/1 6 11-10 Howard Johnson 157 * * » Graham Lee Held up in rear, pushed along and plenty to do after 3 out, stayed on after next and quickened to take slight lead last, driven and ran on strongly (tchd 11-2) « 1 Solwhit (FR) 17/2 9 11-10 C Byrnes 154 * * » P Carberry Held up in rear, steady headway approaching 2 out, chased leader before last, led soon after, driven out (op 8-1 tchd 15-2) |
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They said the same thing about florida pearl as well and that only had to find 2 more furlongs.
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Just to add to that, would she be 7/4 favorite for the Champion Hurdle? No
So in the days of efficient markets etc it's the right decision to put her in the race she is most likely to win Why send your horse to a race it's less likely to win (at the odds)? I can understand not sending her to the mares, as that is a 'nothing' race, unless you're winning it year after year. The WH holds some prestige and she's fav to win it. |
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They wouldnt want QUEVAGA beat in the mares...
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@koikeeper - that also, World Hurdle was the obvious choice. It keeps everybody happy and give three sets of owners the best chance of winning, instead of dividing the prize funds between themselves
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The difference there ash is that you were being asked to take 5/1 about Inglis staying and he'd run 2nd in a big field in the Supreme Novices the year before on similar ground.
Likewise Solwhit was 15/2. The price made it worthwhile for anyone with stamina doubts about the horse. The thing is AP's price is based more on what "they" say she's capable of rather than what she's actually done. Good luck to anyone taking that short a price on her but personally speaking I think it's an awful price. |
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Marcce, I wouldn't take the price now... but the signs and the reasons were there in November, so I have taken some 10/1, 4/1 and 3/1 all non-runner no bet
What price do you think she should be now? If I was offered 3/1 again I'd be a backer TEABAGHDAD said he wouldn't take 20/1, which is akin to saying you wouldn't back England to win the World Cup at 500/1 If I though something that was 7/4 should be 20/1, I'd be laying it with as much as I could afford. It seems like a lot of people are now saying it's the wrong race or the price is too short, but not putting their money up. If they were that confident she'd drift or Big Buck will shorten Forgetting about whether it comes in or not everything has it's price (back or lay) |
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TEABAGHDAD has his own unique view on things to be fair.
Obviously the 10/1 you've got would have been a backer's price. At the moment I'd be a layer rather than a backer at anything up to 4/1. That could change if the weather forecast turns out to be wrong and one of the doubts I referred to i.e. the ground is no longer an issue. As I say at just short of 2/1 she's the lay of the meeting for me at the moment. |
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TEABAGHDAD said he wouldn't take 20/1, which is akin to saying you wouldn't back England to win the World Cup at 500/1
GOOD GRIEF. I wouldnt back a horse who i thought had no chance of winning at any ofds and i dont think Annie Power has any chance of winning so wouldnt bet if i got 100/1. AS FOR ENGLAND BEING A BET AT 500/1?????? WHAT PLANET ARE YOU ON?????? ENGLAND WOULDNT BE A BET AT 5 million to 1 in brazil......... OH MY LORD. |
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so if I offered you 5 million to 1 you wouldn't take it?
Do you play the national lottery by any chance? 13,983,816/1 are the odds of winning that, but plenty still pay their £1 to win an average of £2million That's a no bet |
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It's even worse £2 now.
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TEABAG clearly doesnt understand prices and value . As he doesnt bet probably has a bearing on it.
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ash cpfc 06 Mar 14 15:23
so if I offered you 5 million to 1 you wouldn't take it? Do you play the national lottery by any chance? 13,983,816/1 are the odds of winning that, but plenty still pay their £1 to win an average of £2million That's a no bet I dont play the national lottery. And no i wouldnt take your bet of 5mill to 1 on england winning the world cup as i dont think there is any chance of it happening so it would be a waste of money at any price. (And dont get smart and tell me i could back it at those odds and then lay on betfair). |
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The concept of any horse has a price is only logical if you give the bet some sort of chance. For example if i thought big bucks was the likliest winner but was odds of 1/3, however i gave annies power a chance even though i didnt think she would win. Say i thought Ap was about a 8/1 chance but i could back her at 33/1 then yes i could consider a bet on her.
As it happens i dont believe she has any chance of winning so wouldnt consider backing her at any price. |
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How can Annie have no chance? Trained by the best, ridden by the best and is fav to boot. No chicanery will go on, no trying to pull a stroke.
I think you will find Teabag that you have greatly underestimated Annie. |
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She does oose class (Annie p) & comes to chelts next wk in great form.
She can get a bit worked up at times tho & if backing her I would wait till she was down at the start & looking well settled. Big Bucks will need to be back to his very best to take care of her (giving 7lbs). Its not just a case of those 2 imo, Rule The World is also a player imo. Should be a hell of a race & would love 2 see the old boy BB come out on top ![]() |
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Blackrock 06 Mar 14 15:57
How can Annie have no chance? Trained by the best, ridden by the best and is fav to boot. No chicanery will go on, no trying to pull a stroke. I think you will find Teabag that you have greatly underestimated Annie. Thats just my opinion that she has no chance. Even in the event Of Big Bucks running flat and getting pulled up I still dont think she would win. She is just this years hype horse imo thats all, nothing special. Maybe i will be proved wrong, its happened before and will happen again but the fact is i dont give her any chance and thats my opinion. The only festival race i would give her some sort of a chance in would be the mares hurdle and even then i would still make quevega fav tho i would give ap a chance all the same. |
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I've no doubt MJK that Ruby's views are obviously canvassed but I'm just not sure I go along with the him being selfish argument and doing what's best for him as to where Annie Power runs, just so as he can ride all 3 of their big hopes. I doubt he would choose to get off Hurricane Fly or Quevega if the owner insisted on a clash with either of those so the World Hurdle looks the easier race for her to win and I just get the impression that was the deciding factor rather than so satisfy Ruby. You would also imagine that Annie Power's owner wouldn't be wanting another jockey on her at Cheltenham either if Ruby stuck with Hurrican Fly and Quevega if there had been a clash of races.
I personally don't think she will beat Big Buck's anyway and am not convinced she would win either of the other races with her stable mates in those, plus a few other dangers such as The New One in the Champion Hurdle. I could be wrong but I don't think Un De Sceaux will run in the Champion Hurdle either as it's probably deemed as unlikely to beat Hurricane Fly but again if it doesn't run then I wouldn't have said it was just to satisfy Ruby. |
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When Tidal Bay won the Lexus, last year, Rooby said it should go for the World Hurdle. Does anybody honestly believe he'd have said that if Big Bucks was still in the race and Silviano Conti was out of the Gold Cup?
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I hope Salubrious runs. Think he will run a big race at a big price on better going.
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