Value???

Do you ever do your own prices on a race =tissue.
Is tomorrows race less competative than Monday?

No never do tissue - not clever enough (nor do I have enough time)
Hopefully is less competitive - guess we will find out at 21:22 ish tomorrow

look at the race and decide whether you think it is a fair price or not

considering the opposition

it is purely subjective..it comes with experience

a tissue is the proper way to do it as steamship posted...but not many people can be bothered to do that

so just go on a gut feeling, do you think it is a fair bet at the price

which is what I do

It is either a bet or not - rarely look at prices before deciding on bets and once a horse is a bet then the decision does not change (regardless of price) - fortunately my methods do not produce many odds on shots but there are a fair number in the 2/1 to 4/1 range

Had a quick look on here as I stil cannot log in to RP. Has he won wearing blinkers before? At this trip, course? For me he is a top weight that has not won in his last 6 races and is trading at 2-1 would be a definite no bet for me but you may know that the race is fairly poor which it does look like.

Not value from what info I have.

Diomed selection in RP with comment
SCRIBE isn´t totally reliable, but he´s won here three times and was back to form when second on Monday
and he is RP top rated

not much idea myself...do not play all weather

if you played..gl

I would never have a bet personally unless I thought I was getting a reasonable price for my money

but all personal choice of course

I think that is my point ebulgrey - I have no way of determining whether an individual bet is a fair price.
All I really know is that my selection method will give me 100 - 120 bets between November and February and has a strike rate of 25 - 30 %

What is your selection method pinstckr?

I rarely bet under 3-1 and more often go for 10-1 + selections. Are you betting level stakes or a points system or something else?

Level stakes - as stated no way of judging different levels of confidence so same stake regardless of price. Selection method purely mechanical - they either qualify or not, means it is very quick (can do a whole card in less than 30 mins) and no question of having to make a decision which I find very useful during losing runs

Is Scribe your only qualifier tomorrow? Look back at previous selections and see what happens if you take out all the bets under 2-1 does your profit increase?

Not a great deal of value floating around in the 2/1-4/1 price ranges,even though I would think most punters are looking at those price ranges regardless of form as will always hit a certain % of winners.

o.k Pinstcker, I have just finished the race, and the key to the race is that there is three rivals that like to race prominent in the race at time of writing and that is a massive plus for Scribe, who enjoys a battle when others get tired, so when he hits his usual flat-spot they won`t be quickening away from him considering the strong gallop.
Regards to weather 5/2 is value is up to urself after u have gone thru the opposition form. I have and 5/2 is value in my opinion and a reproduction of his previous run shud be enough to win.

Always remember every race is different and never just back a horse again just because u back it last time. There are loads od boxes to be ticked before money is being put down.

Probably being a bit mean with prices there as I was referring to turf and aw,there are plenty of bets on the aw surface compared to turf probably around the 7/2-4/1 mark.

pinstcker
     07 Dec 13 01:05   


It is either a bet or not - rarely look at prices before deciding on bets and once a horse is a bet then the decision does not change (regardless of price) - fortunately my methods do not produce many odds on shots but there are a fair number in the 2/1 to 4/1 range

So the probability is you will end up backing this at 7/4 my guestimate on tomorrows price maybe even shorter!

in keeping with your economical method of selection, why not have a method that will sometimes give you value, oher times maybe not

betfair sp

well 5/2 would have been value...started 5/4

but only 3rd

You were getting some value as was always going to be overbet,if you knew your prices and had confidence in what would happen numerous options!