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First high class hurdles class of the season later today. I think The New One will comfortably put ROR to the sword tomorrow, particularly given ROR's tendency to improve as the season goes on. The turn of foot The New One showed in all its races last season gave the impression that horse would be even more at home over the minimum distance.
Australia Day will almost certainly lead at a solid pace, ROR will sit handy and probably try and get on half a mile out or so. The New One will sit at the back, cruise up on the bit and readily assert IMO. Only slight disappointment are the prices - when I heard about this clash, I'd hoped to get 4/5 for The New One, but I'll make do with the price tomorrow as I just can't see Rock on Ruby getting anywhere near him.
Who are people backing?
Australia Day will almost certainly lead at a solid pace, ROR will sit handy and probably try and get on half a mile out or so. The New One will sit at the back, cruise up on the bit and readily assert IMO. Only slight disappointment are the prices - when I heard about this clash, I'd hoped to get 4/5 for The New One, but I'll make do with the price tomorrow as I just can't see Rock on Ruby getting anywhere near him.
Who are people backing?
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A definite no bet race for me, on a track that will not suit either imo.
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TTO, I don't think the track is a negative for either. ROR ran OK in the Christmas hurdle and TNO has won at Warwick (another flat track) twice. It appears that TNO may be the more forward at this stage, but as you say, it's probably a no bet race, or at least at current odds.
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ROR must be the bet here over 2 miles. If you think he won`t be straight first time up i think you will be in for a shock because the only time he has looked under cooked first time up has been on soft on his debut and on heavy ground last season.
He is an Oscar horse who bounce off good ground. The New One has the potential to reach the top but he is being priced up as though he has already done it over 2 miles and this will be a tactical affair and Fehily could steal it. Ideally they both want a strong gallop over 2 miles so it will be interesting. |
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Could well be on the soft side come race time,
KEMPTON PARK - Jump (Updated:20/10/2013 at 06:54:44) Going Good (GoingStick: Chase 7.5; Hurdle 7.2 on Saturday at 11:00) Rails Utilising dual bend alignment for this fixture. All distances as advertised. Weather 21mm of rain over the Weekend. 4mm of rain Monday evening. 5mm of rain Wednesday afternoon. 0.5mm of rain Saturday morning. 2mm of rain overnight. Risk of heavy showers Sunday morning Watering We have applied 50mm of water weekly since 9th September, which was completed on Friday 11th October. |
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Soft going would suit TTO more than ROR
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Which horse finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle on soft ground Andrew?
ROR is a few pound better on good ground than soft, if it was soft i would leave the race alone becasuse The New One still has to improve his TS figure over 2 miles. |
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Which horse finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle on soft ground Andrew?
ROR is a few pound better on good ground than soft, if it was soft i would leave the race alone becasuse The New One still has to improve his TS figure over 2 miles. |
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I take your point AG, but whereas ROR can handle soft, he's much better on decent ground. His last 3 races, 2 of them on soft or heavy resulted in defeats and he's lost several when soft of any sort is in the going description. TTO on the other hand, almost revels in soft and if the expected rains arrive later, it will bring his stamina into play. That's not to say he's a good thing (far from it) but I think the more likely winner, although like the OP, i'm surprised at the current prices.
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re rock on ruby getting better as the season goes on may I remind you of his performance in the Gerry fielden on his return in 2011.
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Foxy, in that race Empire Levant (who finished 2nd) won a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle (£3754) in his previous race
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that's the race Andrew on the back of that run he went into the champion hurdle with the best performance of that season.
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Andrew.......that Gerry fielden was his best speed figure ever .....better than in his champion hurdle win or his 2nd to HF
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This is a "speed track".................Ruby the fastest horse
We havent seen The new 1 go R/H yet ? |
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could not agree more Cardiff the 3rd horse that day btn 10 length plus getting 13lb won the Ladbroke hurdle at ascot next time.
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I think last season it was a tough pipe opener for ROR at Cheltenham on heavy ground and i think even at his best he would struggle onthat ground giving Zarkandar 4lb. I doubt it will be heavy today even with thunder storms and it could turn into a speed finish today and ROR comes out top on the figures.
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Rock on Ruby has a good record fresh and is still the one with least to prove of the pair. Also The New One has NEVER raced right handed which is an imponderable also (admittedly ROR also seems better LH). I am not going to stick my neck out on who will win BUT I do believe that the market has it wrong at present. I would say evs, 6/4 more like it.
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To add I think if you backed ROR at the available 3.2 and layed TNO at 1.5 you should be able to IN RUNNING lay ROR around evs and also back TNO at around evs too. Nuff' Said.
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The New One ran to 164 as a novice which I don't think any other novice has since Iris' Gift.
As a 5yr old moving out of novice company they tend to improve at least 10lb over the summer, and if that is the case witch The New One he's going to take some serious beating as he develops throughout the year. At 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle he looks the antepost bet of the Festival to me, but agree he does look a little short today; more than likely due to NDT having his string ready to go early in the season every year and should be sharper than ROR this afternoon. |
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Don't forget that his run at Aintree was taking on the older brigade off levels when only a novice and it was a career best run. I love the bones of him but laid him for a place that day as a I thought he was far too short and it was a massive ask taking on his elders. He ran an absolute blinder to run as he did.
I think this fella is the real deal. His turn of foot is electric. |
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king of hull would you like to bet the other 3 at 10/1 combined ?
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I don`t understand this electric turn of foot which has been mention. According to most post race analysis he has `stayed on well` over a distance beyond 2 miles. Love is blind and all that.
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Watch The Neptune again as they turn for home at the bottom of the hill. That is an electric turn of foot
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similar conversations will be repeated ad infinitum throughout the National Hunt season for many races and lots of horses
ahhh, welcome back jumps   |
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judorick
I suggested on another thread this could well be the best national hunt season ever. I know we saw a great champion stakes yesterday but the gulf between jumps and flat is now bigger than ever. |
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No blinkers for Rock On Ruby , used in the Champion.
Despite winning a Champion Hurdle , I doubt he is as good as The New One. Lay for me. |
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the biggest threat is keeping horses sound, if the big players all stay fit then it should be great
I am particularly looking forward to the 3 mile+ Grade 1 Chasers and extreme distance handicap chasers |
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Looking forward to seeing Bobs Worth dominating the 3 mile scene this year - think he's going to prove himself to be the best since Flyingbolt. His victory in the GC was the best performance I've seen since Kauto's King George romp.
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When TN1 won G2 bumper april.....trainer on abt Hdls 2m4f.........the Neptune 2m5f stiff galloping track.........bit sharp around here for it....?
dont like the mud & the rains allmost there |
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Crikey , talk about different views of the same race.
I thought Bob's Worth was going up and down on the spot a mile out ,and simply outstayed a very average field. He may (like See You Then & Best Mate) run up a sequence in an era of average chasers imo. |
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Yes , I know See You Then was a hurdler, but the point is the opposition were no stars.
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I also think that's a very brave statement thunderroad but of course we all should have opinions.
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We'll see folks. Everything in the race went wrong for him, and he still smashed a couple of 170+ chasers into the ground. I was heavily invested in Long Run (mainly in the place department) and Silviniaco Conti (
 ) and didn't quite understand the hype behind Bobs Worth. He completely blew my expectations away that day and I don't expect anybody to get close to him in the next few years. |
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see that is a perfect example of allowing your preconceptions to cloud your later judgement
you backed Silviniaco and he was travelling beautifully before falling. Had he stood up he might well have won & and your opinion would be different, and indeed SC may well be capable of significant further progress this year which would mean your 'best since X' about BW instantly becomes invalid in addition there are others to join the party |
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was it hype behind bobs worth or the fact the horse was a proven cheltenham specialist and grade 1 performer already, with potential
for more improvement ? |
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It should be a good race.The Rock at 7/4 must be the value
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Watch The Neptune again as they turn for home at the bottom of the hill. That is an electric turn of foot
Or in reality.. Tracked leaders, not fluent 2 out, driven to lead approaching last, ran on strongly run-in |
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and FAR more went wrong for Sir Des Champs
firstly, he had a jockey switch and secondly the rain ruined his chance completely because he simply did not stay - the 2013 GC was run nearly 30 seconds slower than the 2012 renewal and there has to be a chance that on that going, with his proper jockey, SDC might well have bounded up the hill after jumping the last in front, like he did in the Jewson, instead of stopping to a virtual walk |
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Sorry Rick, but SC definitely wouldn't have won, and may not have even been placed. I love the horse, but is strength is the way he jumps and travels - he's not like Bobs Worth, Long Run or Sir Des Champs who find plenty for pressure. I'd backed him at fancy prices antepost, but was far from confident (and ended up laying off my stake) on the day because I don't think he quite has the staying capabilities you need for a Gold Cup horse. He may have cruised up to challenge the leading pair, but he would have weakened out of it when push comes to shove. Stick to the big field handicaps IMO Rick
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you don't know that, who the feck do you think you are, fecking Nostrodamus? ffs
Stick the aw because that's about your level you mug |