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ima_mazed66
07 Oct 13 23:39
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Date Joined: 12 Oct 09
| Topic/replies: 10,928 | Blogger: ima_mazed66's blog
Do any forum members remember a few years back a thread put up on here saying if you started on 1st January with a £100 bank and divided it by 50 to get £2 as the first stake, if you were to lay one bet every day for a year at any odds up to 50s that by the end of the year/bet #365 your bank would total over £137,000? Then if the first lay was successful you added the £2 won to the bank making it £102, divided that by 50 to get the new stake and so on.

The reason why I am asking is that was the basis of it but then it was said that if you wanted to factor in commission then the first stake would be £2.10 and so on. Well I've made a spreadsheet and added the formula where I can manually update stakes and totals after each bet but am not that up on these things and wondered if anyone knew how to do it where you can automatically copy it throughout the whole 365 bets via a formula?

From memory by bet #364 you would have to have put on over £2k and that might not be practical, although I doubt I would ever let it run that far anyway and would bail out much earlier and it's also asking a lot to have 365 successful lays in a row anyway.

I've put this in the horse racing section as that was where the original thread was but one method I was considering using was football rather than racing and to lay the correct score at half time in games. The quoted odds go from 0-0 to 3-3 and then you have odds for an any unquoted, basically meaning one team has to score 4 goals for the lay to fail. Seeing as in most games neither team scores 4 goals in 90 minutes, they are even less likely to score that many in only 45.

Alternatively on the sections list of bookie coupons you have big gap odds between the two teams in Section 1 and close odds games in section 7, so another option could be to lay 0-0 at half time in any section 1 game, for example on Saturday Liverpool were 2/9 with Palace 11/1 and laying 0-0 at HT saw Liverpool score after 13 minutes and the bet was soon won. Liverpool won 3-1 so even laying any unquoted at HT would have worked too, as would laying 0-0 in 90 minutes.

In section 7 of the close matches on coupons, Fulham were 7/5 and stoke were 8/5 so in these games it makes sense to lay any unquoted either for 45 or 90 minutes, although in 45 the liability will be higher but you rarely get any team score 4 in these tight games and certainly not in the first half only.

Any thoughts on the actually laying methods will be appreciated but I was more interested in the spreadsheet formula aspect and know the stakes go something like £2.10, £2.15, £2.19, £2.23 and so on.

Thanks in advance for any replies.

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Replies: 53
By:
bannahan
When: 07 Oct 13 23:51
My lack of mathematical know how stopped me reading the rest by line 3 I'm afraid ima....
By:
Brother Mouzone
When: 08 Oct 13 00:13
Use a compound interest calculator Ima if you're not that comfortable with other options, it isn't the prettiest but it does the job. I always have one rolling with lays at 100, I've had 2 out of 3 £100 to £1000 (240 bets with daqs 3% comm) come in this year, it's ridic boring and the disgust when laying a monster price winner could cause self harm issues but it does pay if you've got the patience.

I have got the 365 50 lays in basic email form, I'll post it here when I find it and see if it kills the thread.
By:
Brother Mouzone
When: 08 Oct 13 00:41
BET            LIABILITY             PROFIT            BACKERS STAKE              NEW BANK

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135              £1,422.14          £28.44                 £29.94                  £1,450.58
136              £1,450.58          £29.01                 £30.54                  £1,479.59
137              £1,479.59          £29.59                 £31.15                  £1,509.18
138              £1,509.18          £30.18                 £31.77                  £1,539.36
139              £1,539.36          £30.79                 £32.41                  £1,570.15
140              £1,570.15          £31.40                 £33.06                  £1,601.55
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151              £1,952.27          £39.05                 £41.10                  £1,991.32
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187              £3,982.43          £79.65                 £83.84                  £4,062.08
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191              £4,310.71          £86.21                 £90.75                  £4,396.92
192              £4,396.92          £87.94                 £92.57                  £4,484.86
193              £4,484.86          £89.70                 £94.42                  £4,574.56
194              £4,574.56          £91.49                 £96.31                  £4,666.05
195              £4,666.05          £93.32                 £98.23                  £4,759.37
196              £4,759.37          £95.19                 £100.20                £4,854.56
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198              £4,951.65          £99.03                 £104.25                £5,050.68
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200              £5,151.69          £103.03               £108.46                £5,254.72
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205              £5,687.88          £113.76               £119.74                £5,801.64
206              £5,801.64          £116.03               £122.14                £5,917.67
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211              £6,405.47          £128.11               £134.85                £6,533.58
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213              £6,664.25          £133.29               £140.30                £6,797.54
214              £6,797.54          £135.95               £143.11                £6,933.49
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217              £7,213.60          £144.27               £151.87                £7,357.87
218              £7,357.87          £147.16               £154.90                £7,505.03
219              £7,505.03          £150.10               £158.00                £7,655.13
220              £7,655.13          £153.10               £161.16                £7,808.23
221              £7,808.23          £156.16               £164.38                £7,964.39
222              £7,964.39          £159.29               £167.67                £8,123.68
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224              £8,286.15          £165.72               £174.45                £8,451.87
225              £8,451.87          £169.04               £177.93                £8,620.91
226              £8,620.91          £172.42               £181.49                £8,793.33
227              £8,793.33          £175.87               £185.12                £8,969.20
228              £8,969.20          £179.38               £188.83                £9,148.58
229              £9,148.58          £182.97               £192.60                £9,331.55
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236              £10,508.84        £210.18               £221.24                £10,719.02
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250              £13,866.20        £277.32               £291.92                £14,143.52
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253              £14,714.92        £294.30               £309.79                £15,009.22
254              £15,009.22        £300.18               £315.98                £15,309.40
255              £15,309.40        £306.19               £322.30                £15,615.59
256              £15,615.59        £312.31               £328.75                £15,927.90
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258              £16,246.46        £324.93               £342.03                £16,571.39
259              £16,571.39        £331.43               £348.87                £16,902.82
260              £16,902.82        £338.06               £355.85                £17,240.88
261              £17,240.88        £344.82               £362.97                £17,585.70
262              £17,585.70        £351.71               £370.23                £17,937.41
263              £17,937.41        £358.75               £377.63                £18,296.16
264              £18,296.16        £365.92               £385.18                £18,662.08
265              £18,662.08        £373.24               £392.89                £19,035.32
266              £19,035.32        £380.71               £400.74                £19,416.03
267              £19,416.03        £388.32               £408.76                £19,804.35
268              £19,804.35        £396.09               £416.93                £20,200.44
269              £20,200.44        £404.01               £425.27                £20,604.45
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271              £21,016.54        £420.33               £442.45                £21,436.87
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273              £21,865.61        £437.31               £460.33                £22,302.92
274              £22,302.92        £446.06               £469.54                £22,748.98
275              £22,748.98        £454.98               £478.93                £23,203.96
276              £23,203.96        £464.08               £488.50                £23,668.04
277              £23,668.04        £473.36               £498.27                £24,141.40
278              £24,141.40        £482.83               £508.24                £24,624.23
279              £24,624.23        £492.48               £518.40                £25,116.71
280              £25,116.71        £502.33               £528.77                £25,619.04
281              £25,619.04        £512.38               £539.35                £26,131.42
282              £26,131.42        £522.63               £550.14                £26,654.05
283              £26,654.05        £533.08               £561.14                £27,187.13
284              £27,187.13        £543.74               £572.36                £27,730.87
285              £27,730.87        £554.62               £583.81                £28,285.49
286              £28,285.49        £565.71               £595.48                £28,851.20
287              £28,851.20        £577.02               £607.39                £29,428.22
288              £29,428.22        £588.56               £619.54                £30,016.78
289              £30,016.78        £600.34               £631.93                £30,617.12
290              £30,617.12        £612.34               £644.57                £31,229.46
291              £31,229.46        £624.59               £657.46                £31,854.05
292              £31,854.05        £637.08               £670.61                £32,491.13
293              £32,491.13        £649.82               £684.02                £33,140.95
294              £33,140.95        £662.82               £697.70                £33,803.77
295              £33,807.77        £676.08               £711.66                £34,483.85
296              £34,483.85        £689.68               £725.98                £35,173.53
297              £35,173.53        £703.47               £740.50                £35,877.00
298              £35,877.00        £717.54               £755.31                £36,594.54
299              £36,594.54        £731.89               £770.41                £37,326.43
300              £37,326.43        £746.53               £785.82                £38,072.96
301              £38,072.96        £761.46               £801.54                £38,834.42
302              £38,834.42        £776.69               £817.57                £39,611.11
303              £39,611.11        £792.22               £833.99                £40,403.33
304              £40,403.33        £808.07               £850.60                £41,211.40
305              £41,211.40        £824.23               £867.61                £42,035.63
306              £42,035.63        £840.71               £884.96                £42,876.34
307              £42,876.34        £857.53               £902.66                £43,733.87
308              £43,733.87        £874.68               £920.71                £44,608.55
309              £44,608.55        £892.17               £939.13                £45,500.72
310              £45,500.72        £910.01               £957.91                £46,410.73
311              £46,410.73        £928.21               £977.07                £47,338.94
312              £47,338.94        £946.78               £996.61                £48,285.72
313              £48,285.72        £965.71               £1,016.54             £49,251.43
314              £49,251.43        £985.03               £1,036.87             £50,236.46
315              £50,236.46        £1,004.73            £1,057.61             £51,241.19
316              £51,241.19        £1,024.82            £1,078.76             £52,266.01
317              £52,266.01        £1,045.32            £1,100.34             £53,311.33
318              £53,311.33        £1,066.23            £1,122.34             £54,377.56
319              £54,377.56        £1,087.55            £1,144.79             £55,465.11
320              £55,465.11        £1,109.30            £1,167.69             £56,574.41
321              £56,574.41        £1,131.49            £1,191.04             £57,705.90
322              £57,705.90        £1,154.12            £1,214.86             £58,860.02
323              £58,860.02        £1,177.20            £1,239.16             £60,037.22
324              £60,037.22        £1,200.74            £1,263.94             £61,237.96
325              £61,237.96        £1,224.76            £1,289.22             £62,462.72
326              £62,462.72        £1,249.25            £1,315.00             £63,711.97
327              £63,711.97        £1,274.24            £1,341.30             £64,986.21
328              £64,986.21        £1,299.72            £1,368.13             £66,285.93
329              £66,285.93        £1,325.72            £1,395.49             £67,611.65
330              £67,611.65        £1,352.23            £1,423.40             £68,963.88
331              £68,963.88        £1,379.28            £1,451.87             £70,343.16
332              £70,343.16        £1,406.86            £1,480.91             £71,750.02
333              £71,750.02        £1,435.00            £1,510.53             £73,185.02
334              £73,185.02        £1,463.70            £1,540.74             £74,648.72
335              £74,648.72        £1,492.97            £1,571.55             £76,141.69
336              £76,141.69        £1,522.83            £1,602.98             £77,664.52
337              £77,664.52        £1,553.29            £1,635.04             £79,217.81
338              £79,217.81        £1,584.36            £1,667.74             £80,802.17
339              £80,802.17        £1,616.04            £1,701.10             £82,418.21
340              £82,418.21        £1,648.36            £1,735.12             £84,066.57
341              £84,066.57        £1,681.33            £1,769.82             £85,747.90
342              £85,747.90        £1,714.96            £1,805.22             £87,462.86
343              £87,462.86        £1,749.26            £1,841.32             £89,212.12
344              £89,212.12        £1,784.24            £1,878.15             £90,996.36
345              £90,996.36        £1,819.93            £1,915.71             £92,816.29
346              £92,816.29        £1,856.33            £1,954.03             £94,672.62
347              £94,672.62        £1,893.45            £1,993.11             £96,566.07
348              £96,566.07        £1,931.32            £2,032.97             £98,497.39
349              £98,497.39        £1,969.95            £2,073.63             £100,467.34
350              £100,467.34      £2,009.35            £2,115.10             £102,476.69
351              £102,476.69      £2,049.53            £2,157.40             £104,526.22
352              £104,526.22      £2,090.52            £2,200.55             £106,616.74
353              £106,616.74      £2,132.33            £2,244.56             £108,749.07
354              £108,749.07      £2,174.98            £2,289.45             £110,924.05
355              £110,924.05      £2,218.48            £2,335.24             £113,142.53
356              £113,142.53      £2,262.85            £2,381.95             £115,405.38
357              £115,405.38      £2,308.11            £2,429.59             £117,713.49
358              £117,713.49      £2,354.27            £2,478.18             £120,067.76
359              £120,067.76      £2,401.36            £2,527.74             £122,469.12
360              £122,469.12      £2,449.38            £2,578.30             £124,918.50
361              £124,918.50      £2,498.37            £2,629.86             £127,416.87
362              £127,416.87      £2,548.34            £2,682.46             £129,965.21
363              £129,965.21      £2,599.30            £2,736.11             £132,564.51
364              £132,564.51      £2,651.29            £2,790.83             £135,215.80
365              £135,215.80      £2,704.32            £2,846.65             £137,920.12
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 00:44
why wait 365 days? just do 365 bets
By:
Cork Langer
When: 08 Oct 13 00:50
Doubtless based on the theory it is fairly easy to find one a day, slightly more difficult if you are looking for multiple lays in a short period of time, depends on the individual and what or how many markets they are comfortable playing in, also the liability factor of waiting for one to cash before selecting another.
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 01:20
Not to worry bannahan but that could be a bit of handicap in this game. Silly

Nice one Brother Mouzone and that's the thing I was looking for and can print off a hard copy and tick them off as i go along, even if I don't have the spreadsheet and so much appreciated.

I think the one a day was said more for effect judorick, much the same as starting on January 1st was too when you can start any time so you are right that any 365 bets will do. I did 7 football matches over the weekend where the games fitted in time wise with 12:45, 3:00 and 5:30 kick offs in the PL and Barca and Real Madrid are my go to matches in Spain every week and they had a 7:00 pm and 9:00pm kick off.

Famous last words but it looks fairly easy using what are considered the top 6 or so PL teams and it's just a case of deciding laying either 0-0 or any unquoted and correct score HT and FT, yet even when you lay 0-0 you still get a little bonus when a team like West Ham score first against Tottenham when you might have expected it the other way. I layed the 0-0 up until HT in Saturday's Barca game and Valladolid scored first after 10 mins but luckily I layed 0-0 over 90 minutes for R Madrid as they were playing away.

Cork Langer covers some of the reasons why one a day lay might be the suggestion but I've started since the football season began and am up to bet #36 now and still going after laying any unquoted at HT for the Partick v Hibs game last night at odds of 32.0 that ended 0-1 to Hibs.
By:
Tattcorner
When: 08 Oct 13 01:24
Good luck ima.  There's nothing stopping you swopping from one sport to the other.
I was thinking when the flat ends, if you managed about 120 hits you could have a £1,000 bank just in time for Cheltenham.  You could easily have lost £100 anyway frittering on small bets from November onwards.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 01:49
Feeling a bit thick, not grasping the concept

errm? Blush
By:
bannahan
When: 08 Oct 13 02:06
Me too jud. It's good ole fashioned study and a whirly whirly finger shut eyes technique here.

Does look interesting though ima....

The grand for Chelts is enticing
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 02:07
Cheers Tattcorner and yeah I've looked at mixing it up a bit with other sports and especially the generally two outcome ones like boxing, darts, snooker and tennis where you could lay the big outsider or even lay the draw where available or correct rounds/frames/scores on those events and you would have to be really unlucky not to dodge the bullet there.

Another option is to lay a golfer to win a tournament but you will have to wait 2-4 days for a return or maybe only lay any golfer on the final day of the tournament who is far back enough not to realistically win and know you will get paid out the same day.
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 02:19
Sorry for the double post but didn't see the follow up replies until sending.

OK say you start with a £100 bank and divide it by 50 then this means you can lay any outcome up to 51.0 on here which will worse case scenario wipe out your whole bank if unsuccessful but you can of course lay shorter. If the £2 lay is successful then you add that to your bank to make it £102 and divide by 50 again to get £2.04 as your next stake. If this lay is also successful your bank becomes £104.04 and so on. This though doesn't take into account any commission so you wouldn't really get £2 back after the first successful lay but only £1.90, meaning the first stake actually becomes £2.10 so that you get the whole £2 back if successful.

The theory is after 365 bets and dividing each new bank total by 50 every time to get the new stake, you will turn your original £100 bank into over £137k. The practical might not be so easy though.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 03:15
do you still lay £2.10 or whatever even if the odds are say 25?
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 03:35
Yeah and 51.0 is just the maximum before your whole bank would be wiped out if laying a winner.

You could lay at any price and even single figures but the likelihood is that you would be more inclined to have an unsuccessful lay just by the law of averages than if you layed at the higher end of the market.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 03:42
Cool could do it on purple as I'm not using that
By:
undern
When: 08 Oct 13 13:15
These types of things are always interesting (in theory) .... I suggest you slightly alter it by "banking" half your winnings for each bet ... might take longer but at least if you fail big time you still have banked something ...
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 08 Oct 13 13:31
and the first bet is?
By:
Cork Langer
When: 08 Oct 13 13:34
Keep up swifty, ima is onto bet 37...!
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 08 Oct 13 13:40
ah right
my laziness has been exposed
Sad
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 15:19
I'm only bringing the staking plan back to the fore again, you will all have to find your own selections if doing it yourselves. Silly

I'll probably row in with Oxford @ 5/4 v Portsmouth at 7/4 where you can lay in the correct score market any unquoted at FT @ 11.0 or for HT it's 30.0 and you would have to be very unlucky if either team scored 4 goals in the first half.

The stake for that as bet #37 would be £4.29. or £2.10 if starting it as bet #1 but good luck anyone else giving it a go if doing so with their own selections.
By:
B1GTONY76
When: 08 Oct 13 15:30
interesting bit of fun, picking 365 losers
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 15:34
I think I will personally bail out much earlier than bet 365 unless that decision is actually made for me. Happy
By:
B1GTONY76
When: 08 Oct 13 15:39
could not do 1 a day would have to do 10-20 a day.
or set a target say if get to £50 a lay then take halve of bank.
as you would struggle to lay a 50/1 to £50 as only smaller money
By:
geoff m
When: 08 Oct 13 15:42
all good in theory laying all losers
the reality is a few will hit the target and fook all the theoretical hyperbole.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 08 Oct 13 15:53
You do any unquoted for HT is 3 goals and not 4!

Sticking to one or two a day will stop you reaching and backing in games you wouldn't normally back in. It's quite easy to get very involved in it and backing every next available game. For it to be a success you need to decide on your bet, place it and then forget about it and continue with your usual activities.
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 16:06
All valid points although I'm personally not doing one a day anyway and managed to squeeze in 6 or 7 football bets over the weekend but I would be more than happy to have the headache of trying to get a £50 stake on, as by then it would be up around bet #160 so almost halfway and the bank will have gone up from £100 to almost £2500 and I'd probably bail out and start again anyway. Although the annoying thing would be if you were to do it a second time and get up to #160 again then you would have been almost there and up to around £57k had you carried on with the first effort.

As regards getting a whole £50 stake on, you might have to cover this over 2-3 lays by that stage to get it all on, which means it would increase the overall number of lays and then in turn increases the already strong probability that a lay will be unsuccessful but I do think sticking mainly to laying football correct scores either 0-0 or any unquoted and especially any unquote at HT is a very safe strategy.
By:
B1GTONY76
When: 08 Oct 13 16:18
what odds are the any unquoted at HT normally range from

I going to give it a try on horses and sports between 30.0-50.0
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 16:36
Yeah cheers for that GoldCupWinner as I'd only just started looking into HT correct score lays and obviously didn't look close enough but prior to that was doing any unquoted in tight games on the betting for 90 minutes until recently or laying 0-0 for 90 minutes where one team was much shorter that the other and used section 7 and section 1 on the bookie coupons sections list to find these games. Blush

Having 3 goals scored in the first half gives you less leeway on the HT correct score any unquoted but it's still reasonably safe in the tight games. Or I could always revert back to any unquoted in those tight games for 90 minutes despite having done a few at HT and got away with it.

It depends on the match odds on the games really B1GTONY76 although I know you asked what does it range from. Tonight's game that I mentioned above is  Oxford @ 5/4 v Portsmouth at 7/4 where any unquoted HT was 30.0 but is now 25.0 but bear in mind what GoldCupWinner had just pointed out that either team only has to score 3 by HT whereas it's 4 by FT.

last night I layed any unquote at HT for the Partick v Hibernian at 32.0 and their match odds on H1lls coupon were 13/10 and 7/4, over the weekend I layed any unquoted at HT in the Norwich v Chelsea game and even did so after Chelsea went 0-1 up and that price was 9 but I did so thinking they would have to score 3 more when it was only 2.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 08 Oct 13 16:47
I was looking at something similar just the other week but with under 6.5 goals rather than laying any unquoted. I think I worked out roughly 3% of premier games last year had 7 or more, whilst it was about 2.5% for championship games. You can probably reduce those odds by leaving out teams who can give out a hammering. Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool for example. I'd want teams like Stoke and Southampton on my side in bets such as these.
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 17:15
Yeah funnily enough once you pointed out it's only 3 goals for HT I had a quick look at the other options for that Oxford v Portsmouth game tonight and laying over 6.5 goals was 50.0.

On the sections list on H1ls coupon last weekend all 7 games in section 1 which are the strong teams against weaker ones had a goal in the game and so laying the 0-0 for 90 mins on any of them would have won there (not checked all for 45 mins though) and in section 7 which are the tight games, 13 of the 14 teams scored between none and 2 goals with only one scoring 3, so laying any unquoted there for 90 mins would have seen all winners (although a nervous half an hour when the 3rd goal went in) and the one 3 goal team game was 1-0 at HT so all would have won there too.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Oct 13 17:26
it's a shame the US horse racing is such low liquidity as there are loads of no hopers to lay around 50
By:
Colonel Trautman
When: 08 Oct 13 17:41
Been there and done it many many times and had a hell of a lot more than 137k profit .anyone that knows me knows that I use a compounding staking plan and could have 50,000 losing bets in a row and still be massively up..and I still get grief on hereExcitedLaugh..only on the forum..gotta love it..
By:
CDK
When: 08 Oct 13 17:47
The one MAJOR problem...is the liquidity...taking £1000 out of a 50/1 shot is nearly impossible on most markets!
By:
TRD.Racing
When: 08 Oct 13 17:56
CT Just a little after timing there
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 18:26
It doesn't actually have to be a 50/1 shot and that's just the maximum price that would wipe out your whole bank and with the odd pence each time factored in for the commission then £100 and 50/1 isn't actually enough anyway, but there is room for tweaking here and there as long as you follow the general principle, such as maybe needing 2-3 lays as previously mentioned to get a higher whole stake on or if your betting bank permits it then laying above 50/1 even.
By:
toffee87
When: 08 Oct 13 19:19
I'll probably row in with Oxford @ 5/4 v Portsmouth at 7/4 where you can lay in the correct score market any unquoted at FT @ 11.0 or for HT it's 30.0 and you would have to be very unlucky if either team scored 4 goals in the first half.

isn't it 3 goals for unquoted in the 1st half not 4 ?
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 08 Oct 13 21:31
Yeah sorry, that's right thanks for that and not something I was aware of until today, although up until recently I was laying correct scores at FT in the main anyway.

I stopped following betting on football a while ago as I feel nowadays officials decide games just as much as the players do and so am now only just feeling my way back into things again and have lost touch a little.
By:
dewey
When: 08 Oct 13 23:40
I'm so impressed with the 'Spreadsheet formula' what a winner.......'Genious'.   Thanks.
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 09 Oct 13 01:01
Did I just see undern giving advice after spunking 10k the other day
By:
Tony Broke
When: 09 Oct 13 11:10
hope all goes well for u ima  the only prob I have is the extreme stress involved in laying uq f t when a couple of early goals go in, even low socring teams can suddenly have a goalfest as im sure youre aware.
even stoke might have a 4-3 within 15 years.
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