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28 Aug 13
09:45
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Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Always used to believe dry conditions coincided with better results but now beginning to wonder.
Had a profitable first six months of the year but since the warm weather kicked in, Anecdote apart, things have been pretty dire. When a bad spell lasts more than a few weeks it is important to question what's going wrong rather than just plod on regardless.
There has too much (poor) racing but probably no more than previous years and sifting out the rubbish should be no different this year to any other. Jockeys are probably just as bad as last year so can't use that as an excuse unless you think they are even more unpredictable in hot conditions. Maybe clutching at straws but could the warmest weather we have had for several years have had a negative effect? Is it more difficult to spot a horse who has good ground form but cannot act on anything quicker than a soft ground winner who cannot cope with heavy ground? That would be one possible negative, another would be horses sweating far more in hot weather and quite often this is something you are only going to pick up on the track and in any case this would too late if you have taken and an early price. There may have been other reasons for her shocking effort but Dardanella was example from a couple of days ago. I am sure many of us don't feel much like exerting ourselves in the hot weather so should it really be any different for some racehorses? In addition with a prolonged dry spell you obviously have the increased likelihood of horses racing on 'false' ground when the odd shower arrives.
Interested to know if anyone else has been struggling over the same period?
Had a profitable first six months of the year but since the warm weather kicked in, Anecdote apart, things have been pretty dire. When a bad spell lasts more than a few weeks it is important to question what's going wrong rather than just plod on regardless.
There has too much (poor) racing but probably no more than previous years and sifting out the rubbish should be no different this year to any other. Jockeys are probably just as bad as last year so can't use that as an excuse unless you think they are even more unpredictable in hot conditions. Maybe clutching at straws but could the warmest weather we have had for several years have had a negative effect? Is it more difficult to spot a horse who has good ground form but cannot act on anything quicker than a soft ground winner who cannot cope with heavy ground? That would be one possible negative, another would be horses sweating far more in hot weather and quite often this is something you are only going to pick up on the track and in any case this would too late if you have taken and an early price. There may have been other reasons for her shocking effort but Dardanella was example from a couple of days ago. I am sure many of us don't feel much like exerting ourselves in the hot weather so should it really be any different for some racehorses? In addition with a prolonged dry spell you obviously have the increased likelihood of horses racing on 'false' ground when the odd shower arrives.
Interested to know if anyone else has been struggling over the same period?
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its very very easy when the going is heavy if you are laying
wot I do.......winning ploy for me .......often short/odds on.......dont cost me alot to be rong 
Depending on one's methods, the amount of racing can be a problem this time of year (easy to lose focus, get fatigued etc)...i'm never that keen on small-field form either tbh, tho prob just personal failing....When you start blaming the ground, you know you're in trouble imo
Hope it turns round soon
Hope it turns round soon
mange, laying all bumper horses under a penalty would have cost you plenty in recent years acc. to my database...are you being selective with which ones you lay?
Rarely lay............in propper heavy yes selective & there normally playing a big part till the death.
Weight (for me) is only a factor in a fast run race i/e these small fields of cat & mouse (slow pace) the top weight (best horse) plays a part
Weight (for me) is only a factor in a fast run race i/e these small fields of cat & mouse (slow pace) the top weight (best horse) plays a part
Quick Quick Slow, velly good for Chinese dancing!
sorry, mange...i took yr first post as following on from previous laying post...yeah, be in profit backing under pen in bumpers
Extremes of ground are good for the punter as you can rule out lots of runners.
Horses will make fools of us regularly and some we draw a line through will win but generally on heavy ground you can rule out plenty on both form and breeding grounds.
Billy77 • August 28, 2013 10:59 AM BST
Lay the runners wearing flip flops on sand.
Lay the runners wearing flip flops on sand.
Interesting post, I was just thinking the same the other day. Had a brilliant first four months of the year but almost as soon as the faster ground appeared I went on a losing streak and lost most of what I won from May- July. Pulled back some in the last month when the softer ground came back.
Could be something to do with the fact that I rarely back favourites, and also the summer has all the big competitive meetings like Royal Ascot. And I generally prefer the jumps.
Could be something to do with the fact that I rarely back favourites, and also the summer has all the big competitive meetings like Royal Ascot. And I generally prefer the jumps.
DD do you use systems/rule based method or are you an intuitive sort of punter?
flat racing 70% low grade all aged handicaps no one can make it pay those days are gone
flat racing 70% low grade all aged handicaps no one can make it pay those days are gone
When you say those days are gone, how recently would you estimate that. The reason I ask is that I mostly play in these races and things have got very difficult this last year or two for me.
When you say those days are gone, how recently would you estimate that. The reason I ask is that I mostly play in these races and things have got very difficult this last year or two for me.
OP imho think your long para is prob mainly straw clutching, but posing the
'Interested to know if anyone else has been struggling over the same period? question is best.
Hopefully replies will just tend to indicate unwelcome Variance(the dreadword )for yourself.
My own answer is 'no'.
Consistent conditions breed (more)consistent results and lesser profit margins for the Crookmakers hooray.
'Interested to know if anyone else has been struggling over the same period? question is best.
Hopefully replies will just tend to indicate unwelcome Variance(the dreadword )for yourself.
My own answer is 'no'.
Consistent conditions breed (more)consistent results and lesser profit margins for the Crookmakers hooray.
Judge, I don't have any systems/rules other than trying to be careful in terms of staking and chasing losses. Even if I had the time I would never spend hours looking at races but not sure if that makes me intuitive. Basically looking at backing winners in the 5/2-8/1 bracket with the odd big-priced winner thrown in. Prefer NH but under both codes would be looking at trying to find relatively lightly raced improvers. Would normally steer clear of cavalry charges but having said that Roca Tumu and Anecdote have done me a couple of good turns this year. They helped to ensure that I managed to come out the right side of the four major Festivals. Bumpers are by far my favourite betting races as I can put a bit of pedigree knowlegde to good use. I would far sooner back an unraced bumper horse than an unraced 2yo/3yo as the races are in general less competitive and consequently easier to assess. The downside at the moment is they are few and far between and very poor quality. There is an example at Worcester today - I think there is case for opposing the favourite but Greatrex horse didn't look entirely straightforward and I think he would be nearer a 3/1 chance if fancied. Given my current run will probably leave alone. As anyone will know just about the hardest part of a bad run is seeing horses you might have backed actually winning.
know the feeling too well mate, I ask because obviously systems will have their losing periods dependant on changing variables and we all tend to use systems in our betting whether we acknowledge that's what we're doing or not, it's always difficult knowing whether you are having a drawdown or your edge is erroding
couldnt agree more about the lack of opportunities, the garbage being churned out on a daily basis is truly shocking, knowing what Warren Buffett calls your circle of competence is truly one of the most important aspects of any type of speculation imo
my advice would be if you've done your research oppose the horse in question if it satisfies your criteria, this event/outcome has no relation to your last bet
couldnt agree more about the lack of opportunities, the garbage being churned out on a daily basis is truly shocking, knowing what Warren Buffett calls your circle of competence is truly one of the most important aspects of any type of speculation imo
my advice would be if you've done your research oppose the horse in question if it satisfies your criteria, this event/outcome has no relation to your last bet
When you say those days are gone, how recently would you estimate that. The reason I ask is that I mostly play in these races and things have got very difficult this last year or two for me.
it seems since the handicaps were changed to this 1234567 changing the weights and since the bha and bookmakers are one of the same and that's why they are watering the tracks to give at least good to firm and 8 plus runners in a race thats bookmakers dictating to the bha what they insist they do its completely fkd the game upwatering but you just change to avoid these handicaps, I an assure you before long low grade flat racing will be like bags greyhounds and you will avoid it like the plaque once some wake up to whats happening the clever ones already don't bet them
it seems since the handicaps were changed to this 1234567 changing the weights and since the bha and bookmakers are one of the same and that's why they are watering the tracks to give at least good to firm and 8 plus runners in a race thats bookmakers dictating to the bha what they insist they do its completely fkd the game upwatering but you just change to avoid these handicaps, I an assure you before long low grade flat racing will be like bags greyhounds and you will avoid it like the plaque once some wake up to whats happening the clever ones already don't bet them
know all, none of what you have said has happened recently. Watering and framing of handicaps have not changed for years now. BAGS Greyhound Racing is an entirely different matter.
we are not on the same wave length watering has only happened this year why? work that one out
You are correct,know all. We certainly aren't on the same wave length.
slow ground is best after a long dry spell....better value for the soft ground horses whose best form was probably months ago.
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