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WinkerWatson
14 Aug 13 09:49
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Date Joined: 02 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 121 | Blogger: WinkerWatson's blog
3:45

A very wide looking handicap which will be all speed. Solemn has a wide draw and comes from a stable struggling for winners whilst Towbee, although on a decent mark, also has a wide draw and may find the ground too firm. Lenny Bee could be potentially interesting if supported in the market with Philip Makin booked and it won over CD in 2010 off a 10lb higher mark. Interesting as well It was 5th under Makin under CD in July but was only beaten one and a half lengths and is now 4lb lower again today. With a strong pace very likely it may well suit the horse to just sit in behind the pace. Bronze Beau is well drawn to attack but may well struggle with the strong pace as this horse likes to dictate and it will find it very hard today.

The Exceed and Excel filly Wild Sauce is well drawn and could show up well for Justin Newman. The horse won over 5f at Newcastle last August off todays mark for todays jockey so we know it is capable today and comes here off the back of a good 3rd. A concern is that both its career wins have come when making all and that will be very hard to do here, but its latest 3rd the horse was held up so it will be interesting to see what tactics are deployed today. Cocktail Charlie has been a frustrating horse in that its only win came on its debut at Ripon. It has run some good races since then but a failure to get its head in front is a big concern. If everything clicks, it is well handicapped but this is competitive.

A couple of weeks ago over CD Indian Trail ran a really big race when going down narrowly under Oisin Murphy. However the draw has not been kind today as its posted out in stall 13 and the horse is not getting any younger. It may be vulnerable in this field today. The horse that won that day was the very progressive and speedy Bondi Beach Boy. James Turners horse is 3/3 over CD here so has to have the utmost respect again here going for the four timer. The concern here is that there are plenty of other viable alternatives who are going to be vying for the lead and it could happen that they go off too fast in front. Also it only won by a neck last time out and it is upped another 5lb so it may demand more again. However there is no doubting that this horse has the speed to bounce out and be hard to catch.

Mercers Row's last win was over CD back in August 2012 off 69 and it runs off 70 today and comes here on the back of a good 3rd off 71 when behind Bondi Beach Boy. The horse is 1lb lower today and can travel very well but Gemma Tutty is 0/6 on the horse and it may have a bit to find with Bondi Beach Boy. Niceonmyson gets on well with Kevin Stott and won over CD in July off 54 and is running off 58 today. However that was in a class 6 and it may be that this race is too competitive. Ypres has the best draw and Tom Eaves is a good booking. It comes here on the back of a victory over 5f at Ripon off 65 and is only 3lb higher today. Its 2 CD runs have resulted in a 2nd and 3rd both not beaten very far at all so it must be respected given it handles conditions, has the best draw, runs the track well and comes here in form.

A big run from Adams Ale looks likely here for the good little Paul Midgley yard. The yard seem to be going well and this horse is a lot more unexposed than most of this field today, winning 2 of its 9 career starts. It won off 63 over 6f at Redcar on its handicap debut in May and won by a neck at Pontefract in July off 69 and it runs off 73 today. It was only beaten a nose 2nd of 15 8 days ago at Ripon and is dropped in grade today and has dropped 1lb so it must be respected. Another horse that has to merit serious each way consideration is CARANBOLA(N.B) who is a 6 times CD winner. The negatives are that it is drawn in stall 10 and that its last run over CD it was 10l behind Bondi Beach Boy. However it comes here on the back of 2 decent 2nds off 71 over 6f at Thirsk and it was only beaten a head last time out over 6f at Redcar again off 71 and it runs off the same mark today. It is a big 9lb lower than its last win which came in this month last year and it is also 4lb lower than its last CD win in June 2012 so it is undoubtedly well handicapped. CD winners and in form sprinters are usually a good combination and interest will be heightened if strong in the market for a gambling yard.

4:20

A tight looking 1m2f handicap with many in form horses entered today. Moccasin comes from a yard that do enjoy winners here but the horse is not running well enough to warrant consideration even with Jason Nason taking off a handy 7lb. Be Perfect looks to need more for another yard that do well at the track and although this represents a drop in grade, it would be nice to see the horse in better form and it may find the ground a bit quick if it dries up. Jebel Tara is only 4lb higher than its 1m Ayr win in July and it did win 4 races on the bounce in May so has had a very good 2013. However it has rose in the handicap accordingly and todays 1m2f is the furthest it has ran so there is a slight question mark for stamina and this is competitive.

Saint Thomas is always respected at the track but is does look to be in the grip of the handicapper at present. The horse has been 2nd,3rd and 4th off this mark all over CD recently so it may need slightly more for the win and its CD wins have been off 63,65 and 66 so off a mark of 71 it may need to drop a couple of pounds. Classic Punch dead heated with Saint Thomas over CD in May and they are off similar weights again today. Graham Lee is a positive jockey booking and this horse needs to dictate from the front which it may have competition for today. The horse ran 2 poor races recently but then bounced back with a win at Doncaster over 1m2f on firm ground off 81 and it is only 3lb higher today. The horse seems an 'all or nothing' character so it remains to be seen which horse turns up today. It has won off 94 in the past so is still well in on old form and we know it handles the track. Hydrant is the other horse that is the likely pacesetter and gets on very well with Conor Beasley and seems to really enjoy fast ground and a stiff track. It did beat Saint Thomas by 2l over CD but the latter is a big 10lb better off today. The horse was beaten 7l off this mark last time out but it was at Ascot and in a class 3 so the return to todays track and the drop in grade are both positives. The battle for the lead could be interesting between Hydrant and Classic Punch.

Triple Eight comes here in great form from a yard who are going well and like a gamble. It is 6lb higher for its 1m2f win at Ripon by 5l last time out. The penalty means it may demand more today and it would not be one to take too short a price about especially as its CD runs here have resulted in a 13l beating off 71 and a 14l beating off 64 last July. However it is in great form and won very well last time out. In a tight handicap it may be worth siding with Tim Easterbys ARC LIGHT who is progressing well. The horse won over 1m2f at Pontefract off 70 and it has been upped 6lb today. The horse however is still relatively lightly raced and open to more improvement than many. It was 4th of 9 behind Hydrant over CD in June but it is a big 6lb better off with that rival today. It ran well behind Sennockian Star a few outings ago and that horse has ran very well at Ascot since and it also beat Triple Eight in May so it has to be respected today.

4:50

A class 5 1m2f handicap with only 12lb separating the whole field. Seldom has not won since July 2011 here over 1m off 60 and it runs off 57 today. The connections are always respected here but the horse is not in the best form and it maybe that it is vulnerable to the 3yos. Outlaw Torn went off 5/2f last time out but was beaten 6l and it is off the same mark again here. It also went off 3/1f over CD at the end of July and was beaten 14l off 57 so it looks to need a lot more today despite having Conor Beasley on board.

Mcmonagle comes here on the back of a 1m1f win at Redcar off 60 and it runs off 63 today. Connections have booked a good apprentice to take off 7lb and the stiff 1m2f should suit today. The only negative is that it made all on its win last time out and there maybe more competition today for the lead especially at a track where front runners do so well. Eeny Mac is one of those horses that has gone from the front before but todays trip may mean that it is ridden with slightly more restraint. The horse won over 1m at Redcar in a 17 runner field in June off 61 and it is off 67 today. The horse was 6th of 7 last time out beaten 9l off 68 but that was in a class 4 and it does drop 1lb today. Stamina looks a big question mark as it has not looked in the need for the step up in trip.

There are 3 3yos in the field all who get the weight allowance which will help here. Orions Hero comes from the Fahey yard who are in form and it is well bred out of Oasis Dream. However it was disappointing last time out at Ayr when last of 8 and it runs off the same mark today. It did finish 2nd here in July but that was off 2lb lower and the winner has come out and disappointed twice since so more is needed today. Red Charmer is in good form and is entered here tomorrow as well so connections are presumably hopeful of a big run. It has only had 10 starts and won by 3l at Hamilton off 61 in July and was then 2nd last time out off 67 over 1m3f and it has been upped another 3lb today. It has ran 2 5ths over CD here but is in much better form now. It finished behind another 3yo in the field Wellingrove in May but is 3lb better off today and in better form. The latter comes from the Mark Johnston yard whose runners are always respected here. The horse finished last of 11 beaten 31l last time out over 2m at Hamilton off 71 but there must have been something amiss that day and it does drop 1lb today and much better is expected. It is only 1lb higher than its Hamilton win over 1m1f and it has already ran 2nd over CD off 68 so conditions should be ideal and it is on a winnable mark. The smaller field gives the horse a much better chance to dictate here too.

Although it maybe a test to give weight to some unexposed 3yo's Mick Easterby's PIVOTMAN must hold strong form claims here and Graham Gibbons takes the ride. The horse was very well handicapped when duly obliging in an amateurs race last time out off 65 and it has only rose 4lb for todays event. The horse has won off 83 in the past so is still a big 14lb lower than that mark here and comes off the back of a confident boosting victory. The market may tell its own story but it should be difficult to beat if on form.

5:20

An 8 runner 1m4f staying handicap to end the card. Valentines Gift looked a horse to avoid after its run at Musselburgh last time out and it is still a maiden after 20 starts. Kingarrick was beaten 29l last time out but maybe the 2m trip stretched its stamina. The horse is still 7lb higher than its last win and doesn't look that well handicapped. Strike Force's 3 most recent victories have come on the AW and it has not won on turf since May 2011 over 1m2f at Newbury off 67 and it is 4lb lower off 63 today. The jockeys record on the horse is 3rd,3rd,3rd and 2nd and it does like a strong pace to chase which it could get here. It may need slightly more for win purposes but it likes the track and trip.

Kevin Ryan does well at the track and he has 2 here. Grandiloquent has Graham Lee on board and its 2 career wins have been over this 1m4f trip. The horse won on its handicap debut off 81 but it has not shown a great deal since, although its latest disappointment can be forgiven as it missed the break by 15l. More is needed today however. The other Ryan runner is King Kurt who is 5lb higher than its win at Haydock at the beginning of July. The horse was beaten 4 lengths off 74 last time out and is only 1lb lower today and it has not looked in need of a stiff 1m4f judged on its previous efforts. It does like to lead too but may find it hard to do so here.

Gosforth Park comes from a good little yard and the horse is 1/1 here over CD. That win was 3 years ago though off 52 and it runs off 69 today. The horse won won by 5l over 1m4f at Newcastle off 54 and then followed up off 63 last August but it has been beaten on its last 2 runs off todays 69 and may need to drop in the handicap. Flying Power comes here on the back of a win at Doncaster over 1m4f and it is only 4lb higher now. It has won back to back victories already this year so another decent showing would not surprise. The stiff 1m4f can suit here and if running the same race as last time it would have to be respected. In a race that will not take a great deal of winning it may be worth siding with Mark Johnnston's DISCAY (NAP) who is lightly raced compared to many of these. It won over todays 1m4f at Southwell in February and horses that tend to go well their seem to go well and enjoy Beverleys stiff finish. It was a big 12l behind Kingarrick at Musselburgh in May but is a big 9lb better off today and the latter is badly out of form and not open to as much improvement as Discay. The horse was 5th of 9 beaten 3l over 1m2f at Doncaster on firm ground off 67 but it did stumble badly out of the stalls that day and it is 1lb lower today. Last time out it was 3rd at Redcar beaten 4l but it did stay on so todays stiff 1m4f can really bring about more improvement and it could be very hard to peg back at this track especially in a weak affair.
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Report barstool August 14, 2013 10:11 AM BST
An Excellent summary Winker. I have backed Ypres in the 3.45 but you have tempted me in with the other three. Good luck.
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