Sky Lantern...

I think she's more versatile than given credit for. Secondly, maybe Giofra is going to have to help force the pace along with Elusive Kate to give herself the best chance and the two of them will ensure that the pace isn't too farcical.

While Elusive Kate is a cracking filly, I don't think she's top class whereas Sky Lantern has demonstrated that she most certainly is. Sky Lantern has legitimate excuses for her defeats in the Nell Gwyn and at Goodwood, she has ground hugely in her favour, receives a massive 9lbs, and I just don't see her being beaten.

That said, I can still certainly envisage Hughes giving Elusive Kate too much rope, sitting 3 or 4 lengths off her 2 furlongs out and just failing As long as she's within striking distance she wins imo.

I've ploughed all my profits from the last few weeks into her, so I hope you're fecking wrong

The ground favours Sky Lantern a lot, i really fancy her to show her turn of foot at the end and win.

group1 3 year olds don't beat older   group1 horses these days do they, so elusive kate wins

Not big on statistics but I don't think a filly has ever completed the Guineas/Coronation/Falmouth treble. I suspect not many have tried and that probably tells you something in itself.

I'd be very disappointed if she can't see these off with 9lb wfo allowance (Purr Along excepted).

Jul 12, 2013 -- 10:45AM, differentdrum wrote:

Not big on statistics but I don't think a filly has ever completed the Guineas/Coronation/Falmouth treble. I suspect not many have tried and that probably tells you something in itself.

Happy Laughter 1953

Jul 12, 2013 -- 5:18AM, elisjohn wrote:

group1 3 year olds don't beat older

2005 to present GB 3yo+ Group 1's before August

3yo 17/148 (+£52.22)
4yo 22/209 (-£28.12)
5yo  9/120 (-£86.83)
6yo+ 8/161 (-£67.83)

I nearly got a heart attack, I thought the post was going to say that Sky Lantern ... is in season. omg

If she is beat it will almost certainly down to the small field and pulling too hard early

Sky Lantern is a lay for me.

Look at what she has beat:

Kenhope - 110
JTJ - 110
Moth and Winning Express around got close to her.

Elusive Kate

Golden Lilac - 120
Close to DOW - 118   and Ajmaaheer 111
Close to Excelebration 125 and Cityscape 124

Add to this that she will get the run of the race.

Why hasn't hannon put a pacemaker on? he's moronic

Sky Lantern is a 3yo filly yet to race colts or elders, you wouldn't expect her to face 120+ rated horses.

I wouldn't want to be backing Elusive Kate with her record away from right handed tracks

Right handed form = 111113, Left handed/straight track form = 23424

I fancy Purr Along for the forecast behind Sky Lantern and a small bet on the upset

that left right stat is not telling.  all runs on right handed tracks were here maiden and group 1 races.  the others were in france and only 3 were group 1 races.

I've never really thought which way a track turns matters in flat races as much as it might over jumps where it's usually only a problem there anyway if a horse doesn't jump straight and goes out the opposite way to how the track turns so keeps losing ground and has to be corrected after every flight.

Apart from anything else, once they turn into the straight on any course then which way it turns becomes irrelevant from then on, although I think the Falmouth is run over a straight mile anyway.

the nature of straight track races and those run on a bend are often very different, the fact she has yet to win a straight track contest in 5 attempts would worry me if I were a Sky Lantern layer or Elusive Kate backer ... the correlation may be coincidence and one thing in her favour is her form in small fields but on my speed figures she is behind Sky Lantern on thier runs so far even without allowing for wfa

The prix rothschild group 1 win last year was over a straight mile so don't think thats a worry

Elusive Kate was also narrowly beaten in the race last season and ran really well so I personally wouldn't be too concerned on that score if having a bet.

are you sure the prix rothschild was run on the straight mile, raceform have the race as a right handed affair

Would have won the Sun Chariot if she hadn't stumbled at the start imo .

Sky Lantern is probably the best horse in the race , but the small field and possible tactical race is the huge worry for odds on backers.

Found a replay of the race by googling it . Poor effort from the racing post that they can't have a video of a group 1 in their form .

ah yeah ... bloody pay £94 for 3 months RI and they can't even get track handedness right ... that would mean the two 7f Deauville wins were straight track too ... ignore my previous stats, they're bloody wrong

Deauville might be right handed but the Prix Rothschild is run over a straight mile.

Grendel easy mistake to make . Lack of information about foreign group 1 races is increible .

ELUSIVE KATE wins this.......Steam In

I understand the concerns over the way the race will be run. Sky Lantern won off a very hot pace at Ascot and ran a perfect tactical race from the back. She won't get anything like the same run of the race today. That being said, I still believe that she's going to be far too good for any of these receiving 9 pounds. Elusive Kate was a (fairly well beaten) 4th in an average Queen Anne. Declaration of War is an interesting horse, but he clearly wants further than 1 mile and did well to win the race in spite of that. Aljamaaheer  and Gregorian (both of whom beat Elusive Kate cosily) are Group 3 horses.

Elusive Kate getting the run of the race won't make a jot of a difference IMO. Sky Lantern is receiving 9 pounds, has form on the track and will still have enough speed to get her out of trouble in a very weak Group 1. I believe she will hose in.

Apologies, Sky Lantern DOESN'T have form on the July Course at Newmarket, only the Rowley Mile.

Hughes just said not so much tactics but horses class

Does nobody give last year's winner a chance? I'm a great believer in only asking a horse to do what it's already done before?

giofra  all the way

Amazing price on Giofra but im already on SL

Wd winners

should be chucked out

Well done Kate backers. Best on the day.

jockey has whip in left hand

Soumillon - fast asleep when they started rowing

Result will stand IMO.

Keeps it surely ?

hannon to blame totally. Had he put in a pacemaker latern would have bolted up

I backed Sky Lantern - don't think you can throw the winner out.

Watching the head on, the other two were drifting left too, albeit not as much.

it will keep it but she would not had won in a straight line

Doesn't matter about the whip these days .

Buick made no effort to stop his horse drifting , clever really with the rules as they are now .

No chance of this being overturned

she shouldn't keep it but she will.  obviously traded out now so no bias.

EK practically ran into SL 2 or 3 times.

SL not able to run in a straight line, but the way things are now, EK will probably keep it.

scratch that, she deserves to keep it.

I can't see EK losing it

Pacemaker and sky latern wins simple..... If I owned SL i'd be furious with him

Result will probably stand based on past examples but really shouldn't.

Elusive Kate would have won had they kept straight, run across a river, climbed a mountain and leapt out of a plane. Won on merit and the best horse in the race. I backed SL by the way!

If rules say keep it then fair enough...but the rules should be changed in that case!

Otherwise you encourage all jockeys to ride that way

go hughes,hit in the face twice

should lose it but probably wont

watch the money now as the stewards get on

if its overturned its the biggest fix in racing

will lose it,otherwise this game is a joke

reckon hughes and buick should have a bare knuckled fight to decide it

Agree with that Evilroy, think she'd have won regardless.

Buick saying horse had probs going straight last year didn't help

Evilroyslade, the thing is not had THEY kept straight, but had SL been able to run straight. You ONLY have to look at they distance the 2nd runner has lost due to interference, not the distance both of them have lost.

Cunningham has backed elusive kate............and sky lantern after the race

RESULT STANDS

she probably was the best filly

what a joke our stewards are

Cunningham never said that BEFORE the race  funny that

Time to call to the stewards homes one by one.Watch this space....

Cunningham a slimeball, nothing else.

Cunningham didn't care.........he was 6/1 after the race..........win either way

she

corruptus in extremus     Joined: 11 Jan 06
Replies: 189 12 Jul 13 15:01 
Time to call to the stewards homes one by one.Watch this space....


Oh dear.

So if Sky Lantern raced on the opposite side to Elusive Kate EVILROYSLADE and SL stayed straight but EK drifted across the track, considering the winning distance do you still think EK would have won? Was SL beaten by less than the extra ground she had to cover due to being carried across the track?

I am with ima_mazed66

Brilliant, hannon and hughes team bunch of big headed ****s anyway, especially the old fart hannon remember his unsporting reaction after Frankel annihilated cANFORD cLIFFS. Terrible losers who always overrate themselves, one of the most arrogant partnerships in rating. Well done Elusive Kate and team , always holdingSky Lantern anyway

who thinks SL would not had won if she was the other side of the track

Ridiculous decision.

if sky lantern was inside she would have won by 5l

Phoning stewards----speed dial

One of the stewards is called Adrian Pratt ...well named

not sure it would have won by 5...but would have won

had no bet, but I think the rules are ridiculous - zero protection against dangerous rides

In my opinion Ima, I don't think Sky Lantern was for passing the winner. Granted, the crack in the face didn't help, but I was worried as a SL backer long before the drift across the track. Buick outrode Hughes. Tactics were right and you have to say that any horse with the necessary speed would have gone past EK in a flash.Drift or no drift.

The great Lester piggott  said all stewards were wooden tops

Totally agree Horse Sense. Just to reiterate, I backed the second.

Buick had his whip in the 'correct' hand, but still the horse hung. Why did the stewards not take into account Buick didn't put the stick down and just push the horse out? Sky Lantern has passed horses to win her races, so why wouldn't she go past today? Because she was stopped from doing so. Simple.

It's a rule for those willing to break the rules to win, introduced because stewards were making so many mistakes on raceday that were reversed at a later date. But now we just as well have first past the post and be done with it and sod the consequences.

Both horses covered the same amount of ground. Of course if Sky Lantern and Hughes had run straight and EK drifted across the track SL would have won.Horses cannot give ground away generally speaking. Problem is they ran the same distance and still EK beat it. I still say if SL had been good enough, it would have passed EK. It wasn't, and the loon on its back didn't try to switch. Two furlongs from home it was still an option.

evilroyslade,whats what the hannons do or say got to do with a fair playing field? You 2 would be good on a jury

I was agreeing with comment on ALWAYS HOLDING SKY LANTERN, which was obvious to anyone watching the race. As for the Canford Cliffs bit, well yes, Hannon did bleat on and took defeat like a spoiled brat. Nothing to do with this race, but nevertheless a valid comment.

Well done Mary Hinge. Spot on post!

home town decision - Lambourn lads gotta knock 'em out to get a draw in Newmarket.

To those who believe SL would have won had they both run straight I respect your opinion. I just don't agree with it. As a SL backer I was as said before, WORRIED long before they set off to the other side of the track. Hughes was not going as well as Buick!

3 day ban for buick,gosden in his interview said he did everything right.

The thing is though both horses covered the same amount of ground EVILROYSLADE because EK forced SL to do so, but the point some of us are suggesting is that EK prevented SL from running in a straight line, which if their racing positions on the track were reversed wouldn't have been the case. Therefore by EK drifting towards SL and carrying her across the track has made her cover far more ground in racing than the neck she was beaten by if she was on the other side of EK and had been able to race in a straight line.

The easiest way to decide it is to ask yourself which horse benefited more and which suffered as a result of the drifting? Even if it couldn't be prevented, the 2nd shouldn't still be punished for that.

What was the betting on the enquiry on here?
I thought that was a 'flip of a coin' situation...I didn't have a bet but I'd have been very worried if on Elusive Kate as stewarding is still difficult to predict despite the benefit always seeming to be with the FPTP.

I didn't contribute with an opinion before the race (so I'm after-timing in spades) but I did think Sky Lantern was worth laying as Hannon & Hughes have stated numerous times that they're looking forward to stepping her up to 12f, and with just three rivals it was always gonna be a concern.
That said, given a sizeable field and a decent pace (maybe in The d'Astarte in a few weeks) I think Sky Lantern will reverse the form comfortably.

PS - that group one win at Deauville for Elusive Kate last year was DEFINITELY over the straight mile.

started out 1.1 to keep it finished at 1.38 or so

Thanks Tips...I'd definitely have been a 'Sir Coward de Custard' and traded