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surely could not have worst conditions tomorrow. Needs to be held up, chief rival lone front runner, set steady pace, Kate quickens up hill game over
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I think she's more versatile than given credit for. Secondly, maybe Giofra is going to have to help force the pace along with Elusive Kate to give herself the best chance and the two of them will ensure that the pace isn't too farcical.
While Elusive Kate is a cracking filly, I don't think she's top class whereas Sky Lantern has demonstrated that she most certainly is. Sky Lantern has legitimate excuses for her defeats in the Nell Gwyn and at Goodwood, she has ground hugely in her favour, receives a massive 9lbs, and I just don't see her being beaten. That said, I can still certainly envisage Hughes giving Elusive Kate too much rope, sitting 3 or 4 lengths off her 2 furlongs out and just failing  As long as she's within striking distance she wins imo. |
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I've ploughed all my profits from the last few weeks into her, so I hope you're fecking wrong
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The ground favours Sky Lantern a lot, i really fancy her to show her turn of foot at the end and win.
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group1 3 year olds don't beat older group1 horses these days do they, so elusive kate wins
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Not big on statistics but I don't think a filly has ever completed the Guineas/Coronation/Falmouth treble. I suspect not many have tried and that probably tells you something in itself.
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I'd be very disappointed if she can't see these off with 9lb wfo allowance (Purr Along excepted).
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2005 to present GB 3yo+ Group 1's before August
3yo 17/148 (+£52.22) 4yo 22/209 (-£28.12) 5yo 9/120 (-£86.83) 6yo+ 8/161 (-£67.83) |
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I nearly got a heart attack, I thought the post was going to say that Sky Lantern ... is in season. omg
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If she is beat it will almost certainly down to the small field and pulling too hard early
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Sky Lantern is a lay for me.
Look at what she has beat: Kenhope - 110 JTJ - 110 Moth and Winning Express around got close to her. Elusive Kate Golden Lilac - 120 Close to DOW - 118 and Ajmaaheer 111 Close to Excelebration 125 and Cityscape 124 Add to this that she will get the run of the race. |
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Why hasn't hannon put a pacemaker on? he's moronic
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Sky Lantern is a 3yo filly yet to race colts or elders, you wouldn't expect her to face 120+ rated horses.
I wouldn't want to be backing Elusive Kate with her record away from right handed tracks Right handed form = 111113, Left handed/straight track form = 23424 I fancy Purr Along for the forecast behind Sky Lantern and a small bet on the upset |
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that left right stat is not telling. all runs on right handed tracks were here maiden and group 1 races. the others were in france and only 3 were group 1 races.
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I've never really thought which way a track turns matters in flat races as much as it might over jumps where it's usually only a problem there anyway if a horse doesn't jump straight and goes out the opposite way to how the track turns so keeps losing ground and has to be corrected after every flight.
Apart from anything else, once they turn into the straight on any course then which way it turns becomes irrelevant from then on, although I think the Falmouth is run over a straight mile anyway. |
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the nature of straight track races and those run on a bend are often very different, the fact she has yet to win a straight track contest in 5 attempts would worry me if I were a Sky Lantern layer or Elusive Kate backer ... the correlation may be coincidence and one thing in her favour is her form in small fields but on my speed figures she is behind Sky Lantern on thier runs so far even without allowing for wfa
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The prix rothschild group 1 win last year was over a straight mile so don't think thats a worry
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Elusive Kate was also narrowly beaten in the race last season and ran really well so I personally wouldn't be too concerned on that score if having a bet.
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are you sure the prix rothschild was run on the straight mile, raceform have the race as a right handed affair
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Would have won the Sun Chariot if she hadn't stumbled at the start imo .
Sky Lantern is probably the best horse in the race , but the small field and possible tactical race is the huge worry for odds on backers. |
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Found a replay of the race by googling it . Poor effort from the racing post that they can't have a video of a group 1 in their form .
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ah yeah ... bloody pay £94 for 3 months RI and they can't even get track handedness right ... that would mean the two 7f Deauville wins were straight track too ... ignore my previous stats, they're bloody wrong
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Deauville might be right handed but the Prix Rothschild is run over a straight mile.
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Grendel easy mistake to make . Lack of information about foreign group 1 races is increible .
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ELUSIVE KATE wins this.......Steam In
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I understand the concerns over the way the race will be run. Sky Lantern won off a very hot pace at Ascot and ran a perfect tactical race from the back. She won't get anything like the same run of the race today. That being said, I still believe that she's going to be far too good for any of these receiving 9 pounds. Elusive Kate was a (fairly well beaten) 4th in an average Queen Anne. Declaration of War is an interesting horse, but he clearly wants further than 1 mile and did well to win the race in spite of that. Aljamaaheer and Gregorian (both of whom beat Elusive Kate cosily) are Group 3 horses.
Elusive Kate getting the run of the race won't make a jot of a difference IMO. Sky Lantern is receiving 9 pounds, has form on the track and will still have enough speed to get her out of trouble in a very weak Group 1. I believe she will hose in. |
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Apologies, Sky Lantern DOESN'T have form on the July Course at Newmarket, only the Rowley Mile.
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Hughes just said not so much tactics but horses class
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Does nobody give last year's winner a chance? I'm a great believer in only asking a horse to do what it's already done before?
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giofra all the way
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Amazing price on Giofra but im already on SL
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Wd winners
should be chucked out |
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Well done Kate backers. Best on the day.
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jockey has whip in left hand
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Soumillon - fast asleep when they started rowing
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Result will stand IMO.
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Keeps it surely ?
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