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Steamship
29 May 13 14:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 7,761 | Blogger: Steamship's blog
Just wondered do you

Lay fav's only
Pick one lay a day
Pick a few and hope for the best.

Thanks
Pause Switch to Standard View Does anyone on here make money just...
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Report mr crisp May 30, 2013 1:46 PM BST
alec lewis must be a good age now
Report johnnywilkinson May 30, 2013 1:47 PM BST
HES FKKKIN DEAD CRISPPPEEEE
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 1:47 PM BST
my mate used to clerk for the lewises at brough, died a few years back in his thirties
Report mr crisp May 30, 2013 1:48 PM BST
i suppose that proves i was right in theory wee eck
Report johnnywilkinson May 30, 2013 1:48 PM BST
DONT FANCY A JOB ON THERE FIRM
Report wee eck May 30, 2013 1:50 PM BST
sweetchild, are you referring to the nice looking lad who died through the drink? It was a great shame.
Report happylady May 30, 2013 1:52 PM BST
wee eck   ive always called his son young alec as I was a reg at brough when I lived in the uk and his old man would take a bet it was a family affair wasn't it
Report Tightfisted May 30, 2013 1:52 PM BST
For those who say it can't be done... to a 1 point stake at BSP.

Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 1:53 PM BST
yeah eck young gary, absolutely rock solid lad, such a waste
Report RothmanMike May 30, 2013 2:04 PM BST
Beard, yes we were the odds-on boys.
MDM Mick, Kingsbury Ken, Pete the Gravedigger and yours truly
Travelled the land for over 20 years backing the short marathon dogs.
Don't forget, off-course tax was 10% then so it made good sense
Report wee eck May 30, 2013 2:04 PM BST
happylady, took a bet, sometimes with my money, happy days.Grin
Report wee eck May 30, 2013 2:07 PM BST
Rothman, well surely you must have known my mate Dickie Wigzell he was mustard at backing

the short priced marathon dogs, seemed to make it pay for years.
Report the beard May 30, 2013 2:08 PM BST
Great days Mike-I remember one night myself and Tommy were at Rye House and bumped into Ken and Mick and they were racing back to Romford for the last to back Chocolate Chip--said 2/5 would be a good price,we followed them back and lumped on at 10/11!!!

Won 8 lengths
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 2:10 PM BST
now this is how the betfair forum should be..great thread
Report RothmanMike May 30, 2013 2:13 PM BST
No marathon dogs around now mate, but I still trot over to Henlow and have a crack with some of the old school;
that's what its all about.
Starting to plan trips to northern horse tracks though and look forward to that, and usually try to drop in at dog tracks on the way back.
Still recognised with my old Rothmans jacket, and still get abuse for wearing it !
Report the beard May 30, 2013 2:15 PM BST
Not surprised!!!

Take it steady and keep putting a plus in the book
Report RothmanMike May 30, 2013 2:18 PM BST
Sweetchild, I agree but you will notice that most of the contributors have been on here many many years  Plain
Report Ivor May 30, 2013 2:19 PM BST
RothmanMike is a very wise man.
I'm ALMOST entirely laying with a rare odds-on to win, or v/strong fav to place.. occasionally nicking a few quid off the morning greyhounds. TWO losing days so far this year (I expect 4 total) and it will be at least mid-June before I'm fully back to target recovering from the latest day's loss (£482 = 5% of bank, last Friday).
2 dogs and one horse lay correct so far today.. next Unidexter 2:20pm.
Report duffy May 30, 2013 2:21 PM BST
It does seem a rather pleasant trip down memory lane...Billy Botto is one class name, sounds like a character out of a Guy Ritchie gangster film or somethingWink
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 2:30 PM BST
lol funny you should say that duffy, legend has it the botto family had a run in with the krays
Report SIR_Bond May 30, 2013 2:33 PM BST
anyone can find a reason to lay a 50/1 shot

that doesn't matter though because in this sport expect the unsxpected.


laying a big odds it only takes a bad run for you to lose the plot and your bank.

can happen in a day.

dangerous game imo
Report duffy May 30, 2013 2:36 PM BST
sweetchildofmine

Shocked just to clarify, can you please forward on my behalf that I in no way meant any form of insult or offense to Mr. Botto or his family and I can tell just from reading this thread that he sounds like one of the nicest people I have ever had the immense pleasure to hear aboutScared
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 2:39 PM BST
lol think it was something to do with the club a go-go, and the krays wanted to muscle in on the north east club and drugs scene but were sent packing pretty sharpish
Report duffy May 30, 2013 2:43 PM BST
sweetchildofmine

Google billy botto and it shows a betfair thread from 2011 with someone asking about him!
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 2:47 PM BST
heres another google snippet


A collection of pics of Pubs, Clubs and Bars in/around Newcastle upon Tyne,
some ... The Kray twins and their 'firm', in La Dolce Vita nightclub, c.1960s. ......
Thomas Smith Got run out of Botto's on Shields Road and told never to come
back.
Report wee eck May 30, 2013 2:53 PM BST
Duffy, Billy was a gentleman, a bookie, casino and nightclub owner who never let a punter

leave his premises with no rising money, late in his life he went blind and I used to visit

and we used to have a laugh about things that had happened in the past. I still bump into his

widow from time to time.
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 3:00 PM BST
he used to terrify me when i used to go to gossy dogs as a young kid eck...he would just stand there with his palm outstretched as if beckoning you to part with your pocket money...wasnt afraid to take a bet at any time, and racing misses characters like him and his ilk
Report wee eck May 30, 2013 3:10 PM BST
sweetchild, in the 70s I used to go to the Festival with Billy just to punt, one year on our

way to Cheltenham I laid the odds on Henry Cooper to beat Joe Bugner 200 to lose 450 we got to

our hotel the night before the 1st day at Cheltenham and that night in the Hotel bar we listened

to the fight, according to the commentator Cooper won easily but at the end of the fight referee

Harry Gibb gave the fight to Bugner, I went to my pocket to pay Billy but he waved me away saying

imo your man won and I should be paying you two hundred.  What a guy.
Report Jocked off May 30, 2013 3:15 PM BST
I have not had a losing year in seven years of exclusively laying horses.
It is interesting that STEAMSHIP says "A few years ago I would pick one short price a day (under 3-1) but could not help getting greedy and trying to find another of course it ended in disaster."

I recommended my daily lays to one of Betfair's biggest existing shareholders (owns 6%) and he thought it such 'easy money' that he too got greedy and lay in nearly every race.
I would get home at night and say "Well we did OK today" and he would be chasing his losses by backing horses in American races.

My system is simply to oppose horses from slow-run maidens that start under 2-1 against two or more horses that recorded faster times in fast-run maidens.
From a time perspective the one from the slow-run race has to improve to win the race.

Making a profit is all about FOLLOWING THE FACTS NOT HAVING OPINIONS.

My eyes tell me that the maiden winners at Leicester and Lingfield on Tuesday should be followed but their times may tell me otherwise.
Report sweetchildofmine May 30, 2013 3:16 PM BST
lol so thats where patrickpower got it from
Report Steamship May 30, 2013 6:01 PM BST
Been a hard day today after last nights loss and at the moment I am level after 2 days so hope for success tonight.
Report sweetchildofmine May 31, 2013 12:10 AM BST
ttt
Report Greg_Gory May 31, 2013 9:02 AM BST
http://icard.888sport.com/racecard/
race/89078

Scroll down and look at the horses thats raced against each other before.

Do the weights and measures,and if you hit 3 winners in a row you must be fookin useless Laugh
Report Greg_Gory May 31, 2013 9:03 AM BST
By the way I'm fookin useless Laugh
Report sweetchildofmine May 31, 2013 7:54 PM BST
how did it go today mike?
Report skygreenzone May 31, 2013 8:00 PM BST
If you pick a random  horse to win do you think you could be a succesful gambler?Just do the opposite it is that easy.
Report ronnie rails May 31, 2013 8:04 PM BST
used to lay the complete rags 50/1's 66's etc on here to lose a monkey, was very comfortable at that, would lay £500 to £2 no hoper.

got up to winning a monkey thought it was time to lay them to lose a thou, first bet I layed was £950 to £10 a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter on a Sunday, sat watching the screen in running and it went 95's 80's 50's 20's single figures then odds on and guess what it won, so that was the end of that scenario.
Report Tightfisted June 1, 2013 10:28 AM BST
Just checking my stats for first 4 in the betting... 2011 was a very good year Cry

Lay to win 1 point -5% comm

     5% comm        2011        2012        2013        Fav tots   
                                       
    1st fav        -496         -275         -250         -1021    
    2nd Fav        509         -503         -180         -174    
    3rd Fav        -272         95         48         -130    
    4th Fav        308         -46         42         304    
                                       
    Comb P/L        914         61         -42            
Report Steamship June 1, 2013 3:24 PM BST
good
Report Tightfisted June 1, 2013 5:34 PM BST
Fortune favors the brave...

Report I'veGotTheTrots June 1, 2013 7:11 PM BST
I've been reading this fascinating thread and decided to give it a go today. after carefully looking I found 5 to lay and decided to lay them for £10 each. the people on here who have been knocking mike should try it if they think it's easy, it isn't. the first one I layed at 25 and it finished last, I was thinking I've found a way of making a nice steady profit everyday. the next one I layed was rex imperator at Doncaster I layed it at 42 it finished 2nd and went 1.24 in running. I ignored this and carried on but later one I layed at 50 finished unplaced but went 1.31 in running at one point. so I layed 5 at odds between 23 and 50 they all lost and I made £50 on the day. i'd be happy with this except for 2 of them going odds on in running. is this a bad sign or is this just how it goes? part of me is thinking the horses I chose to lay were bad lays because they went short in running, part of me thinks maybe this is just how it goes, I don't know.
Report Stake & Chips June 1, 2013 7:13 PM BST
Laying at those prices, won't help your bowel movements m8.
Report duncan idaho June 1, 2013 7:35 PM BST
Laugh
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 1, 2013 9:43 PM BST
rex imperator - ekk! you like living dangerously don't you..

today was first run for new trainer - didn't that put you off?

untried on distance, and OR 4 lower than LTO at 8f (7f today)

also joint top-rated horse in today's handicap...


very lucky it came second!  what was the other horse that went close?
Report crackerpants June 1, 2013 9:47 PM BST
dont lAY anything more than 3 to 1 , or place lay. but the best way to make money is betting a place , sometimes 3 places in 5 runner races wow,
Report I'veGotTheTrots June 1, 2013 11:54 PM BST
yeahyeah, it was knox overstreet 5.20 Don. went 1.31 ir finished 4th I layed it at 50.
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 12:12 PM BST
but even that one was a risk - LTO1&2 amateur and AW, and LTO3 was a winner! 

at least your heart is getting a work-out Grin
Report deadbrain59 June 2, 2013 12:33 PM BST
any stats for rank odds on ,tight,say 1.4 or less.MischiefMischief
Report wee eck June 2, 2013 12:42 PM BST
yeahyeah, all betting is a risk and because 90% of races are  low grade and because the form

of 90% of low grade races is virtually valueless most of what one does racing wise is dangerous.

I'vgotthetrots I do the same as you to lesser stakes however and if you carry on you will find

that most of what you lay regardless of price will show up in running some will go short and get

beat, others will win, such is the uncertainty of  horseracing. Best of luck if you carry on.
Report get in there gamsty! June 2, 2013 12:44 PM BST
my answer to the original question is yes. it is how i usually make my targets. i do some win and place backing and football also. it can be done. however i usually lay at BIG odds and as little as possible. trying to find several a day will end in distaster.
Report get in there gamsty! June 2, 2013 12:45 PM BST
or a disaster. either way. Cool
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 12:53 PM BST
wee eck... "the form of 90% of low grade races is virtually valueless

I wouldn't describe the move to a new trainer as valueless!
Report wee eck June 2, 2013 12:57 PM BST
yeahyeah, who was the new trainer? would it be a good move to improve a horse by say, sending it, to Alan Berry.?
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 12:59 PM BST
well if the horse wasn't happy where it was... possibly that would be enough to turn things around.
Report wee eck June 2, 2013 1:03 PM BST
yeahyeah, in my 60+ years on the turf I have known thousands of horses change yards mostly

they do not improve, fact.
Report skygreenzone June 2, 2013 1:04 PM BST
Start with a small bank,don,t lay big odds cause it will only take one lay that wins that will clear your bank.Set a target amount you for the day you want to win,also set a target off how much you of your bank you are prepared to lose.As your bank grows or decreases change limits.Enjoy your betting.
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 1:05 PM BST
thing is when you're laying to 50s, "mostly they do not improve" isn't a risk I'd take!


I don't lay anywhere near 50s (20 is usually my max), and for a me a recent change of trainer is a red flat to avoid.
Report wee eck June 2, 2013 1:08 PM BST
yeahyeah, the 20s you lay is that the price on here or is that an industry price? If it is the price

on here then the industry price will be in the region of 12s and 12-1 chances yeah yeah very often win.
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 1:21 PM BST
that would be 20s on here... and i know they can win (oh, do I know they can win... Sad ) but I analyze and analyze and analyze

for me, form study is the key - it's not just "this horse is 20 therefore I'll lay it".
Report wee eck June 2, 2013 1:24 PM BST
yeahyeah, I know you are good at what you do, have not seen you put up one to lay lately.  Best of luck.
Report inspiron June 2, 2013 1:40 PM BST
I can be done but you need to be very very discipline. My mate has no interest in horses only making making money and his style to to lay 2 horses a day and have no other bets. He mostly lay 4/1 in the win market and 3/1 in the place market. He average out £50 to £60 per day and he is more than happy with that.

I tried following him once and lost £200 Cry and got bored and went back to my normal betting pattern (random).
Report yeahyeahwhatever June 2, 2013 1:49 PM BST
I'm not THAT good weeEck!

work's been really busy of late, but the decks are now clear for some heavy duty gambling weeks... can't wait.
Report RothmanMike June 2, 2013 2:17 PM BST
Sweetchild, for your info as requested
30/5  62.37
31/5  85.77
1/6   90.03
(easier with big races and high liquidity).

Cheers and good luck
Report Steamship June 2, 2013 2:25 PM BST
inspiron I think you answer my question perfectly. A gambler(me) is unlikely to win in the long term yet someone who can control that side very much can do.
Report Tightfisted June 2, 2013 3:16 PM BST
The previous 4 years... compared to 2013



Deadbrain, 1.4 lays and under, -14 points in 4 years, briefly reached 0.36 profit.
Report deadbrain59 June 2, 2013 4:13 PM BST
many thanks tightfisted.WinkWink
Report sweetchildofmine June 2, 2013 4:18 PM BST
just had a go at this today, i agree with yeahyeah to an extent, if there any positives or should it be negatives in the lay then dont touch it, to me these variables would be first time for new trainer ..if a decent trainer...first time headgear...in poor form but has its ground conditions...poor form but likes the course...unusual jockey booking etc etc

anyway day one results...

race one..laid wheelaver @30.00, heezagrey @60.0, sycho fred @47.0 and velvet vic @46.0 result +9% of bank
race two..laid gainsbroughs art @38.0 result +3% of bank

only one more was of interest, the shy man in the last, nearly two years off and drifting like a barge, but just cant get his wetherby win a few starts back out of my mind so ive left it
Report deadbrain59 June 2, 2013 4:26 PM BST
all lays must be badly in at the weights compared to l,t,o.ie ,turf trivia,210 southwell.WinkWink
Report duncan idaho June 3, 2013 10:29 AM BST
wee eck,

90% of races are  low grade and because the form of 90% of low grade races is virtually valueless...not true


in my 60+ years on the turf I have known thousands of horses change yards mostly they do not improve, fact...massive generalisation...depends largely from whom to whom, but you wouldnt want to have been laying those that joined M Pipe 20 yrs ago or those joining O'Meara and Appleby of late....in addition, if you'd backed every horse that changed trainer and had first start for that trainer over jumps 2010-2012, you would have a 10% SR and shown a profit at BSP...i cant calculate what %age improved but i think that's enough to suggest that 'mostly they do not improve' is a dubious statement
Report wee eck June 3, 2013 10:35 AM BST
duncan, you will off course find exceptions to all rules but in my experience horses

that change yards do not overall improve, for many from changing yards the knackers

yard is the next stop.
Report Hound-Dog-2 June 3, 2013 10:45 AM BST
^ would only partly  agree with that, and DARNBOROUGH yesterday was one of those exceptions, no timeform rating due to poor form and only one race since last August, only previous chase form pulled up in a 3m 1f Hntrs Ch, 33-1.  New stable, drop back to 2m, showed no form recently,  market spoke 5-2 second fav, won by 10l.
Report sweetchildofmine June 3, 2013 10:48 AM BST
the unusual market price alone would have deterred me from laying that one, likewise if i laid a one at say 55.0, and just before the off it was punted steadily down to 20ish i might cut my losses on it and take a small red
Report duncan idaho June 3, 2013 11:03 AM BST
wee eck, i think to call 3 years of trainer changes 'exceptions' is a bit convenient...that repreesents over 500 horses winning fto for their new yard...trainers have to be savvy not to buy the ones destined for the knackers yard and punters have to be savvy to spot the trainers that are savvy!...but to state that a trainer change is essentially a negative NOWADAYS is wrong, i'm afraid
Report wee eck June 3, 2013 11:09 AM BST
duncan, fair comment.
Report deadbrain59 June 3, 2013 12:04 PM BST
laying 40,50/1 shots ,u would need a large bank account,i would sooner lay a 1.3 '@£100,level.low risk high gain,ones man meat is another mans poison.u never see a poor bookie,im a bookie.MischiefMischief
Report howard June 3, 2013 12:29 PM BST
And often they change stables to land a gamble no doubt so the improvement can be explained
Report DCI Barnaby June 4, 2013 3:07 PM BST
any struggles today with the bigger prices showing up?
Report deadbrain59 June 4, 2013 3:19 PM BST
OH DEAR U ALL MISSED THE 1.29ER.CoolGrinLaugh
Report deadbrain59 June 4, 2013 5:19 PM BST
wot planet is this thread on.LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report mrs patel June 4, 2013 8:05 PM BST
what you are wanting to do in my opinion is keep records of horses you are wanting to lay. don't be laying them on here, just be keeping record so you are knowing how you would have been doing. after long time you will see pattern and suddenly something will jump off page and slap you in face. you will get fright when this happens, but then you are in situation to be making the money. most important thingy is don't be laying until you are proving to yourself you can make the money doing this thing. loss on paper is being much better than loss from bank account.
Report swift-tuttle June 5, 2013 8:15 AM BST
.... so everything in history is repeated in the future
Report deadbrain59 June 5, 2013 8:37 AM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report deadbrain59 June 5, 2013 8:37 AM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report thearchmeister June 5, 2013 10:04 AM BST
Does anyone on here make money just by laying?
Actually yeah Im a brickie
Report mrs patel June 5, 2013 1:05 PM BST
if you be keeping record for last year of horses you are wanting to be laying and it is showing good profit then you are proving you are finding edge. you have to be knowing you is not being lucky rascal so many races is needed. if you are not proving to yourself that you are finding edge then you just be gambling person. all the peoples making the money are having the edge, you have to be finding it to make the moneys. if you are no have edge you are losing the moneys. if get edge go and see bank manager. any betting you not prove have edge do not bet moneys, is best advice for peoples.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! June 5, 2013 1:12 PM BST
I have started a place laying system that's going well. 2 bets today.
Report mr singh June 8, 2013 7:36 PM BST
I think laying horses for a place is best. it's surprising how often you can lay at low place odds compared to the win odds, less than 1/4 of the win odds a lot of the time. if you find good lays they'll probably finish unplaced anyway. it's risky laying at 50 or 100 it's a very big risk for a very small return. I like the big runner handicaps, you can lay shortish odds and you have a lot running for you.
Report duncan idaho June 8, 2013 7:51 PM BST
great to have mr singh and mrs patel back on board
Report sparrow April 6, 2020 2:43 PM BST
Grin
Report dt01 April 6, 2020 4:47 PM BST
ZIPPER had the formula, take the RP naps table on, discount the top 17 in the table, make your selection from the following 15, select something between 5/2 and 9/2 and lay it till your nose bleeds. The reasoning behind his profitable theory, first the whole 50+ of them dont get any more than about 6-7 a day most of them are selected by the top 17, the bottom 15 or so are trying to get bigger priced winners, which they sometimes do, so you leave them alone.Paid for some nice holidays for him and Sue.RIP ZIPPER. Sadly missed.
Report Steamship April 6, 2020 5:15 PM BST
What a good thread
Report moonaxed April 7, 2020 1:15 PM BST
The laying system i use operates twice yearly,the 4 weeks upto xmas and the 4 weeks prior to Cheltenham, i lay one trainers shorties and it makes good money,jumps yard,any guesses?
Report Pilsudski April 7, 2020 2:47 PM BST
PFN
Report 11kv April 7, 2020 2:48 PM BST
NH
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 7, 2020 2:55 PM BST
WM
Report moonaxed April 7, 2020 3:00 PM BST
11kv is correct although a strong drifting odds on PN usually collects too
Report 11kv April 7, 2020 3:21 PM BST
I have had success with that system since Mick Fitz left his employ...
Report moonaxed April 7, 2020 3:43 PM BST
The expenses paid for every xmas and chelts ,got a 1/14 shot beaten at Kelso one year,with bg on top@
Report moonaxed April 7, 2020 3:44 PM BST
Itsmeswadsle..no i don't take that yard on.
Report StillLearning December 26, 2020 2:32 PM GMT

Apr 7, 2020 -- 1:15PM, moonaxed wrote:


The laying system i use operates twice yearly,the 4 weeks upto xmas and the 4 weeks prior to Cheltenham, i lay one trainers shorties and it makes good money,jumps yard,any guesses?


This has credence

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