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I backed him for the RSA and the Jewson ante post hoping he would run in the RSA. He would have won on a line through Hadrians Approach. They ran him in the shorter race thinking it would be easier for him and the 2 miler Grade 1 winner beat him for speed while Tom was looking around for dangers and should have gone on a lot sooner. It was his first run sine Christmas and this is much easier. No Grade 1 chasers in today's race, not over exerted this season, track (won at Kempton easily) and ground (most wins on this type of ground) should be ideal. Banker for me.
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Danger for me
Gone with Third Intention e/w gl |
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Good luck. I think if it looked like a falsely run race then TI had a chance but there should definitely be enough pace here to suit the stayers and sort the form from the rest.
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I think he is, I really like market rival Rocky Creek but I think he's a bit slow and cumbersome over his obstacles think Dynaste might have him jumping a few of these fences quicker than he wants to be in this type of test
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I thought you was gonna say "shoe between the legs"!
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When you look at how Dynaste thrashed Court In Motion giving him 7lb and that horse is of a similar level to Rocky Creek through Houbon Des Obeaux then at his best he'd win easy. I'm still a bit disappointed with his last run though.
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agree with Stevie, Dynaste well below his best last time and very surprised he was "outspeeded" if that's indeed what happened.
Could be another Grands Crus regression and already seen the best of him. |
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I too was a little disappointed last time but when you look at the form the winner was a Grade 1 chaser and a Grade 1 hurdler. None in the race. Plus the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th finished in a heap suggesting the never went a true gallop. Yesterday's easy winner Captain Conan was 5th. It was a much stronger race than today's race and I was surprised they dropped him back in trip. Even so a repeat of that form will be much to good for today's rivals.
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If it was softer ground today brigust I would certainly be on. Not sure what the ground is however and how much water they've put on. 9/4 does look tempting though.
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Captain Conan was a non stayer at Cheltenham for me, Brigust and whilst Benefficient may be ok, it was ordinary form from Dynaste to finish only 1-2 lengths in front of Changing Times and Module. Dynaste had the run of the race and barely scrambled home in front of this pair who are nowhere near Grade 1 level
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the drift is off putting but he will surely win if at even 75%.
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ground?
his poorest performances have come on good ground |
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Super Duty put up a good performance under top weight last time and Rocky Creek is useful so Dynaste has to be near his best today. It's not that easy a race
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record before New Year - 32114111
record after New Year - 6282 ,though has taken on Big Buck's in middle tow of those, but been well beaten previous two years final start in March and as above, looked well below par last time. Maybe just not his time of year |
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Dynaste has never won after Christmas. Ok he's only run 3 times in the spring but each run has been dissapointing.I think he's very good, in fact he's top of my list for next seasons King George but I've got my doubts he's going to be at his best today.
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Beat me to it,pedro.
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no worries Bolty. In fact Dynaste's last defeat before New Year was when he ran a mighty race in the Long Walk in Dec 2011 briefly having Big Buck's off the bridle. Would have been a comfortable 2nd if ridden to beat the remainder as he was next time.
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I think his 2nd to Big Buck's in January was probably his best run over hurdles. But after that certainly coming to the spring he may regress
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Pedro that is why I think the pace was all wrong. I think Tom tried to inject pace when he went on but went too fast too soon and tired up the run in, paying the price. A good gallop over 3 miles will suit him much better and he will get that today.
Of course Bolty of those 4 runs 3 were at Cheltenham. Only 1 win from 5 at Cheltenham. Perhaps the course doesn't suit him. Bolted up on flat tracks at Newbury, Kempton and Haydock. |
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Proverbial ....NO why its a tight little race only 6 runners and out of the 6 any one of 5 can win it .. its no good thing ..
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I think he might be another One Man and needs dropping in trip.
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On the other hand if it blew in by a neck ...... we would all say it was a good thing ...
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even given Tom Scu put some pace to the Jewson, Brigust, still disappointed that Dynaste didn't get home knowing that he stays 3m strongly. Could only surmise he was 10-14 lbs below par and difficult to know what to expect today
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He just never travelled like the same horse we saw early in the season to me. I think a nice break and bring him back for the Hennesey or the mackeson off 157 would have been my plan
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If he runs to form he wins and I see no reason why he shouldn't. No need to go back handicapping he will be running in the King George next Christmas.
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Stevie if you think he has a good chance of winning the Hennesey off 157 and considering Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay and First Leiutenant were 1st, 2nd and 3rd last year off similar weights then today will be a shoe in.
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Yes but he'll have 1 run before the KG brigust and like Grands Cru I think pipe will favour the PP. As he likes to target that meeting
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He seemed to travel fine to me. He took it up on the bridle and turning for home everyone on the course thought he would kick away and win easily. He didn't quicken (much), and got outpaced. I don't think it was a case of Tom taking it easy, he asked but there wasn't much there.
However... that form is probably better than anything in this race has shown. Vino Grigo almost certainly wants soft ground and was beaten off 145 last time, Super Duty was beaten of 142. Rocky Creek is the only horse with any real aspiration to be a grade 1 horse and that's based on promise and hope rather than form. Dynaste ran in the wrong race at Cheltenham imho (I said that before he ran), I think he stays 3m well and today will see him in a better light. Good ground is possibly a slight concern, but most of his best form is on GS and it's probably on the easy side of good here. Super Duty will set the race up for him and he can come with one run quite late, which suits him. I'm not overly worried that he's never won after Xmas, because this year he's had a good break mid season. It's possible he might even come on for the run at Cheltenham. He's not a certainty, but 5/2 with baldie fred is a hell of a price imo. I told myself I wouldn't back any short priced favourites this week but I can't resist this one. |
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well we are then back to is he in the same form as early season brigust? Yes if he is then he wins, but i'm not certain he is.
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agree with Stevie's comment that Dynaste didn't travel at Cheltenham. He was pulling Tom Scu's arms out at Kempton, yet never travelled with that zest last time. Difficult to believe that he wasn't trained to the minute for the Jewson, difficult to see why he should do better than that today - which won't be good enough
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Captain Conan franked the Jewson form and until Benefficient runs again, it is hard to assess what Dynaste achieved. He should be good enough today but is no value.
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Considering he was shorter for a harder race last time then he is value for me. I notice no-one has put up a strong case for anything else because there isn't one. The question is whether he runs to form and wins easily or runs below form and wins not so easily.
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that's basically it Brig do you wanna play 9/4 he returns to form? simple
I think it's a fair price and will be joining you |
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Third Intention a doubtful stayer, but all the others got decent chances esp Vino Griego if still in same form as last three on quicker ground now.
Rocky Creek missed Cheltenham, jumped well at Ascot but shade left handed, so think he should be favourite here |
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one other thing is Scu did go on quite early on Dynaste at chelters? him CC and Benefficient were racing some way out. CC didn't get up the hill and Dynaste was being closed down by Module and Changing Times. But had CC and Ben not been in that race then I feel Dynaste would probably have won very easily. I think I might end up backing him after all.
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Great write up you guys I can,t hold a candle to that but for what it,s worth I have it.
Dynaste Vino Griego Third Intention good luck all. |
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Didnt see this but ive put my own case up for sea of thunder expect a massive run from him today
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Yeah, please do put your case. WHY are you expecting a massive run?
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dont really fancy dynaste here
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I expected 6-4 not 9-4 interesting.
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