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Sometimes its simple
Sometimes its simple
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Basically what I'm saying is - imo, the time a horse runs in its first race on a track is (usually) little guide as to what its limitations are. I'm sure it's different for greyhounds, for instance, who have solo time-trials before they race - I imagine in that case, time is a pretty good guide (though I don't bet dogs).
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Sorry but your "Pace" argument cannot be the 'be all and end all' of EVERY Horse race. .... Simply CANNOT.
I am supporting ged in his statement/assertion that .... Where you have "unknown quantities/horse" - and there were 3 in this race. to varying extents - making up a 3 horse race - THEN... You cannot merely dismiss those 3 horse - simply because you KNOW what the 4th runner IS capable of. |
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* making up a *4 horse race.
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Ged..i was totally confused all the time by the Racing Post's
standard times so i spent years doing my own and it takes years for them to evolve into standard times you believe...once you are happy with your standard times you can then put a figure on what a horse has achieved from A to B ( obviously a crawl cannot achieve a figure) and those figures are then transferable to other fast run races and they are pretty accurate...so fast run races in simular conditions work out the best.......Years and years ago Fantastic Light and Galileo met twice with R hills doing a perfect pace making job on Give The Slip and setting a cracking pace on both occasions....Twice they went past together and that was over middle distances so you can imagine how accurare sprints are.......and Ged as regards improvement it can only ever be a rough guide but i feel confident i can put a maximun on how much and thats what i did and that brought it about 5 lengths behind Spring Tonic so i then thought if Spring leads at a good pace it would certainly win |
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sv - fair enough, you're obviously good at what you do.
What made you start posting on here after all this time?!! Did you consider this one a particularly good thing (given pace)? - or are you just getting daft? |
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onlooker - The 'pace' isn't the be all and end all, the ground is equally as important! Just because Usain Bolt is the fastest man on the planet on rubber, doesn't mean he's the quickest on mud/sand!
Like I said, I worked for sv but i'm by no means an expert and nor do I claim to be, I understand what he tells me but I can't work out the ratings for myself, that's something he did by himself, but i've seen more than enough evidence over the years to know what he says is very accurate, yes you will get the odd 1 that will not perform for whatever reason, it's an animal at the end of the day and it can't tell you if it's feeling under the weather but the ones that do go according to plan, far out weigh the ones that don't! That race then is a casing point, STORM was easily the best horse but they crawled along and it got outpaced but it got on top eventually and won going away, had they gone fast from the off, it wouldn't have been outpaced and would have been easily on top well before it eventually was!!! |
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One thing that sv should have said also was, some of the race times in the Racing Post or on AtTheRaces website are way off, he was puzzled to why some races were working out so strangely so we timed certain races ourselves(away from each other) and the 'official' race time was way off!
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Didn't post over the years cos i was studying all the time and
didn't want distractions but since the PC i just dossed about doing a bit of messing on Purple ive just started getting involved properly again as Purple is getting better and i thought it might be a good idea to tell people how it is possible but the pace is important |
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Python99 21 Mar 13 18:49
onlooker - The 'pace' isn't the be all and end all, the ground is equally as important! -------------- No need to exclamatiom mark! that statement to me  ......The GROUND is the single MOST important Factor. If they DON'T go on it - then they AIN'T going NOWHERE ... Whatever SPEED Rating that they may have previously attained. |
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Haha onlooker, I tend to overuse exclamation marks!!!!!!!
 In fairness to sv, he's always tried to help others win, he had a big following in his local Ladcrooks shop in Gtr Manchester, people actually used to gather in there everyday for his tips, once he was barred from betting in there, he used to just go in to watch the racing, he soon got barred from doing that as well as the Manager pulled him to one side and said the shop was losing money as the other people in there were still backing sv' tips haha They should have to have a sign on a bookies door by law, 'lose as much as you want but win and you're barred' |
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onlooker - That's a pet hate of mine, when an Horse has won a poor race or a crawl on say heavy ground and then 'experts' tell you it goes on the ground as it's won on it.. I could beat my 2 yr old son running in water but it doesn't mean I go in 'water' ha
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Something possibly Fishy here ....
A poster who has only made 13 posts - puts up a SELECTION based on - BURSTING out of the Stalls, MAKING ALL, and replicating THAT Posters SPEED Rating for the horse .... When that horse is a [b]4-yr-old MAIDEN - The type that serious Form Students would normally SWERVE - has NEVER 'made ALL' before' - it only really 'trying from the front' last time out ....and never recorded a TOPSPEED figure of any REAL consequence.... -------------------- Last time ... Soon led at modest pace, quickened over 2f out, headed 1f out, no chance with winner ..... TOPSPEED 50 Previous... Chased leaders, driven over 2f out, stayed on to chase winner just inside final furlong, challenged final 110yds but always just held Held up in rear, stumbled after 2f, effort and ridden 3f out, never a factor (tchd 3-1) Prominent, chased winner over 5f out to over 3f out, stayed on to go 2nd again briefly 1f out, kept on Held up in touch, not clear run and lost place 3f out, ran on final furlong Raced centre, chased leaders, ridden to go 3rd over 1f out, stayed on same pace, lost 3rd post -------------------- NOBODY has "made a Million" backing DONKEYS like that. At the same time - ANOTHER Poster - who had only ever posted 14times - - and just happens to have, "worked for him" - Is - quite conveniently - on the thread like a flash, and all over it like a rash, in support of the Original Poster. Then - when the thread is beginning to die-down - He regales us with a story of the OP being banned from a Betting Shop - because ALL the other Punters were backing his tips. I was waiting for the email address catchment clause. If sv is kosher - then good luck to him .... But I still have to maintain - NOBODY has "made a Million" backing DONKEYS like that. |
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Inspector Clouseau on the case!
Must say looked an odd post to me from 2 new forum contributors, expecting a p.m type post soon. |
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No chance of an email address i loathe tipping lines...i just did it cos i think punters are unaware of the difference the pace makes...youre right onlooker nobody did ever make money backing a horse like that cos it didn't lead at good pace..if it had it would of won and i'm confident of it after rating the race.....
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Onlooker...these form students what are they studying..cos if its the same form as everybody else i will lead to nothing..
Spring Point got outpaced of the Hannon odds on shot cos he went too slow and the pace slowed too much today too...His Kempton run was a good clip and he ran right to the line recording a good time and a good A to B figure and thats the form i'm following and not the slowly run Lingfield race. |
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Hahahahaha Inspectors onlooker and stewarts rise, I don't know what your day jobs are but for gods sake, stick at them and don't be thinking about a career change into being Investigators!!!
 If you ever reply to a 'tipping line/agent' or whatever they call themselves then you'd need to seriously get yourself looked at, if someone is that good at what they do and earns a fortune from doing it, why do they need to charge you for info as well??? They don't, they charge you because they're useless and don't make a penny from gambling so they have to get their money from somewhere!!! Who are these serious types of 'form students' you speak of??? I know for a fact that everyone i've come across on my travels, does their brains in! The reason why we posted together is because i've followed sv for years, sv is a very shy person and was reluctant to post on here, as to be quite frank, he said he will just get abuse off people(he wasn't wrong)..it was actually me that suggested he should do so and basically encouraged it! As i've said before, he genuinely wanted to help people but unfortunately it went wrong today with how the race went but it's no wonder 99% lose when they laugh at and ridicule people trying to help them!!! I don't know who you are but Betfair/Ladcrooks/BaldFred etc all know who he is and what he's done and they will all vouch for his success as will Barry Dennis! Thinking the world is out to get you and everyone's hatched a plan to con you out of your money is madness, maybe just let people be who they are and if they wish to try and help other people then let them, don't worry too much about conspiracy theories, just be clever enough to tell someone NO when they ask you for money in exchange for a tip!!! |
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Oh and by the way, i've just checked the rules on here again and at no point does it say that you need to have made a 1000+ needless posts before people will take you seriously!!!
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Well i'm pleased that you've finally found your voice after 10 years on here and look forward to reading some more of your informed posts.
I won't say anything about myself but i think you'll find that Onlooker is a very good form judge as are others on here, not everyone on these forums is a muppet you know. |
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blah blah blah.show us the money-put a winner up...either of you
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I don't mean to be disrespectful to onlooker and I really do genuinely hope he makes a living from this but he can't do if he follows Topspeed ratings, they're absolutely useless!!! They're based on the Racing Post race times and the race times are way off in some instances! We once timed a race at Towcester that was 3 furlongs out(3 FURLONGS
 ) on the official time to what time the race had actually been run in, we phoned Towcester Racecourse and told them and they made excuses saying they have nothing to do with the official times yet it's now been corrected! Leopardstown is a nightmare for it, James Willoughby' reply.. you've got an advantage then if you know the correct time!!! It's not about having an advantage, I just want it to be fair. I don't think for 1 minute that everyone's a muppet, i'd like to think most people are reasonable and can have a civilised debate/conversation  |
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A tale of two snakes
Slippery Viper & sidekick Python the buffoon Betfair forum bows to the nolodge of purple returnees  |
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What the ! ..... to borrow one of YOUR Exclamation marks.
Python99 - Your mistaken assumptions are 'a milion' from being ANYWHERE near the truth. I do NOT subscribe to Tipsters - NEVER Have - NEVER will do ... Have NO need to. NOBODY has ever taught me ANYTHING about this game - sussed it all out for myself, and since I was 14 years old, too ...... But I HAVE put plenty of other people right, about 'how to approach' FORM Study, and subsequent betting on a selection. I do NOT "follow TOPSPEED" .... NOR Anybody Else's Speed Ratings, either - as I do NOT believe them to be PURE FORM study ... SPEED Ratings are often applied literally, at bare Face Value - by many - in a slavish, mistaken, manner .... IGNORING the FACT that .... Speed Ratings do NOT consider Horses to have [b] individualGoing Preferences, Running Styles, course type requirements, quirks, and a myriad of other factors that the ''all embracing' FORM Student [b]automatically, and rigidly, ADHERES to - Race by Race, Horse by Horse. SPEED Ratings followers do NOT take into account such 'mind, flesh and bone' attributes - but treat the horses as if they are SCALECTRIX cars that just need a jab with a 240volt wand. They are a LOOSE indication, at times - But that is all - - As -They are ALL FLAWED by the [b]human intervention/application of the - UNQUANTIFIABLE 'Going Allowance' that HAS to be 'Awarded' in order to compute the (mostly) make believe nirvana of numbers. I merely used Topspeed as the only readily accessible Rating - as an example. |
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Don't take up comedy as you'll die on your feet!!!
If I knew what 'nolodge' meant, I could maybe reply! No one is asking anyone to listen, people choose to do what they want, no one forces them to do anything! The fact that you've posted 4826 times in less than 2 years says you don't know what you're doing and you spend all day trying to belittle others that do! No one is returning to Betfair, 60% PC, people who win on Betfair are charged a premium charge, I assume that's what you have to pay madhatters??? |
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python if you is so good why is you not python100
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Wouldn't waste your breathe Onlooker
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onlooker - I never said you do subscribe, I said if!!!
I'm not quite sure I understand your point about 'Speed Ratings', surely if you give an Horse a rating, you've given it for a performance in certain conditions? An Horse doesn't just get the same speed rating over any distance on any ground, each race has to be rated individually!!! 'SPEED Ratings followers do NOT take into account such 'mind, flesh and bone' attributes - but treat the horses as if they are SCALECTRIX cars that just need a jab with a 240volt wand'.... I have never heard such nonsense, anyone who does that is clueless! Loads of different factors have to be taken into consideration, having a speed rating means absolutely nothing if it's on a different surface/going to what the rating was achieved on. If the race is run at a crawl then the rating is again irrelevant, there's loads of factors! |
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Of course there are.
But where is the SPEED Rating ONLY devotee left? - when ... A horse's best Speed Rating is from a 5 furlong race on Good to Firm, when it made the running, and just held on - and now ... It is trying/running over a 6 furlongs on SOFT ground. Believe it or not - many DO follow such figure slavishly and blindly - whereas - I, and I assume you, too, would be a LAYER - all season long. |
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If that was the case, personally I wouldn't have a bet.. however, the fact that it just held on is irrelevant, it's the time it took to get from A to B in them conditions that matters!
As I said earlier, all sv does(and like I said, I trust and follow him 100%) is find the best Horse in the conditions, neither of us have ever laid an Horse! I agree thought that alot of people do just follow a particular system blindly! |
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though*
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