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If Spring Tonic(5-15 Wolves) leads at a goodish pace then he will win easily.....if its a crawl then who knows who's the fastest
2 furlong sprinter and if i knew he was going to lead and go a decent pace then i would back it big.
2 furlong sprinter and if i knew he was going to lead and go a decent pace then i would back it big.
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simple for a simpleton.
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??? Ged
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did you go to school sv
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Yeah..a long time ago...why?
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His 3 rivals have had a total of 5 outings between them. How do you know what they're capable of? If they'd had about 6 runs each, and done no better than their first outing(s), you'd have a case.
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case closed
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you dont strike me as the type who does a crossword in 5 minutes
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I know what Spring Tonic is capeable of and what's required to win a race of this nature and he's more than good enough...also the others might be better than theyve shown but they would have to be alot lot better and unless its a crawl they wont get near.
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*capable.case closed.
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Yes you know what one horse is capable of. You've little idea about the other 3. They're all with decent trainers. One's had a break of 100 days after 2 outings, and another has had just one race when it "ran green" and "missed the break". You want to back odds-on against 3 relative unknowns who have all shown some promise?
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...and not just back it, but you say it "will" win. That's stupid talk.
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.aaah forget the 100 day bit. Don't know where that came from!
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forum sceptecism justified
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ged knows the game.
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'If Spring Tonic(5-15 Wolves) leads at a goodish pace then he will win easily.....if its a crawl then who knows who's the fastest 2 furlong sprinter and if i knew he was going to lead and go a decent pace then i would back it big.'
Out of interest chavman/onlooker/ged.. At what stage did it lead at a goodish pace??? He tried to lead but Spencer got to the front and slowed it right down!!! If Seb Coe raced Linford Christie(both in their prime) over 800m, Coe would win every time if it was run at a good pace, however if they dawdled round for 700m and sprinted for the last 100m, Christie would win every time! The pace of a race is massively important!!! chavman.. 'you dont strike me as the type who does a crossword in 5 minutes'.... sceptecism??? |
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would you have "backed it big".
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Does that make sense in your language?
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did the horse have the profile to "back it big".do you think he will win money in races like that
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It was a no bet race for me...i had a big bet ready if he lead at a good pace but he didn't so no bet....the pace was the whole point of my post....
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Python - your question is irrelevant, imo. The whole point is one of rubbishing the idea that a 4-horse race is considered a 1-horse race (given he leads at a decent pace), when all 3 of the opposition are unknown quantities to a fair degree. Rae Guest, in particular, has a habit of winning low grade maidens with horses who turn out to be listed class.
If the 3 in opposition were all reasonably exposed as moderate, and say, with moderate stables, then the OP would have had a case, but to dismiss the opposition when they're all so lightly-raced is just daft. I'm sure Spring Tonic is well capable of winning "one of these", but to consider him home and dry (granted pace), when you've little idea what he's up against is very blinkered thinking. |
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Well, it seems sv hasn't learned anything.
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I know him very well, I used to work for him, he is barred from every High St bookie, on course bookmakers stopped taking his bets, he won over a million pound on Betfair alone before the PC put paid to him betting on here, he took 50 odd grand off Barry Dennis at Lingfield(who then spoke about him on The Morning Line'.. so who am I to question him???
How many people do you know who qualifies for the 60% PC by only 'backing' and NEVER 'laying'? |
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By the way i was one of Betfair's biggest win only punter's until the PC and i was up 7 figures with them and i hope they come on here and confirm it.....Do you know how i did it??..huge bets on the right horses leading at a good pace and when they didn't lead at a good pace i didn't bet...by the way Gabrial leading and slowing it down ruined the race and the time was not great either.
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it was a thinly guised lump on thread,albeit with getout clause
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Sorry Python i posted without looking at yours
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Well in that case I have a lot of respect for the man, and take back some of the insulting things I said.
But I'd still go against him in that race (and not just with hindsight). In my view, you have to pick your races, and this wasn't one of them (imo). |
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chavman, I know it wasn't meant in that way, I see some posts on here where it's 'BANK JOB' or 'PUT YOUR LIFE SAVINGS ON THIS....'
This would have been all in good faith, he wouldn't ever wanna steer someone the wrong way, he's hardly ever posted as you can see, he just wants people to realise how important the pace is!!! |
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Given sv's subsequent posting ....
BOTH Parties correct in their assertions .... As proven by the later explanation - and also the Race Result. |
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ged, fair enough, everyone's entitled to their opinion!
Just out of interest though, if you knew an 100m Athlete was capable of running 10.5 seconds for the distance and he was against 3 other runners who had all had a couple of runs each but not done much, none of them had clocked better than 12 seconds, would you not back the one who's proven and be extremely confident about it? If the race was run in 10.7 seconds and you didn't know the winner, you'd be confident that your man won the race but if the race was run in 13 seconds, you'd be worrying as you know all the Athletes could do that! That's sv' point, don't allow yourself to be vulnerable and make sure the pace is strong enough! |
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sv , nice of you to use your one post a year to advise us all . cheers
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To be fair to ged, though ...
There is a LOT more time to find the necessary improvement - from previous LIMITED Form - in a 1m141y HORSE race ... Than there is in a Human 100 metres DASH. |
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point taken.maybe too quick to criticise.fair play to anybody who is in the top .001% winning the money he has
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Python - I don't think your parallel is a good one.
The kind of improvement a horse can make between runs 1 and 2, or between runs 2 and 3, is far greater than the scale of improvement a human could manage. Mainly because of how clueless a horse can be first time (and thereafter, for some of them). ..and again, you have to take the trainer into account (and pedigree too). None of those things matter with humans. |
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In the end, it all comes down to price.
What price would sv have got if his lad had set off in front at a good pace and looking like he intended to make all? 1.4? I'd still have fancied my chances of getting him beat, given that scenario (unless of course, the Guest horse had fallen out of the stalls and was star-gazing along with the other 2 lightly-raced ones). |
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The time of the race says to me that the winner will not be able to go on from here and the second still can...i believe
its all about what a horse can achieve from A to B and then give it the conditions to run to this figure...the winner has run somewhere near where i thought and the second about 5 lengths below its A to B capabilities because of the pace slowing right down.......Sorry if i got anyone's back up it was not meant...i just thought some of you on here could back it if it was leading at a good pace as i am on the purple and can only get so much matched there and at a lesser price |
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sv - on what basis do you calculate your expected time for the winner, given that he's only had one race? How much improvement do you allow for him from race 1 to race 2? None? If some, what factors do you take into account?
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sv, a good read..you obviously know what you are doing...keep posting on here mate, nice to read something about horse racing
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ged - So it doesn't matter to an Athlete who they're trained by?
I totally understand that an Horse can run green and what you're saying but you can only find the best horse in the conditions and back it, sv clearly states if it leads at a good pace has it's not a bet before the race as it might not lead or if it does, it might lead at a slow pace! onlooker - ok fair enough! So let's up the Athletics distance, an Algerian won his 1500m heat at the London Olympics, they crawled round and he sprinted clear, halfway up the straight, Steve Cram(during commentary) accused him of cheating/drug taking as it was form out of all recognition.. it wasn't even the poor lads PB I don't think, he just had a much better sprint finish than the others, had they gone quicker throughout, he might well have not been sighted! |
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Python - not as far as predicting improvement from their first couple of races to their next couple, no. (Unless you're talking about professional sprinters who run in races arranged for people to bet on - because I know nowt about that world, if it still exists). As far as how they do over their whole career, and whether they peak for the important meets - then yes - but that's not a parallel situation to the maiden race we're talking about.
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