The greatest law that effects the backing of all events in betting!

he must have been a public schoolboy ,not been bought up in the real world

bf-fanatic...



any work books for Chelters  ?....       

If the outcome is positive then it is profitable.Kingsbarns was backed all week for the Racing Post Trophy and shortened by about six points in a few days.The horse won and all backers made a profit some just made more profit than others and also provided the flexibility to trade if getting on early.A simple and profound law is pick winners and you make a profit. QED

".A simple and profound law is pick winners and you make a profit. QED".
ROFFL.

I think your all being much too hard on B Fantastic, I am going to use his theory to make money! From now on I am only backing 1000/1 shots, according to b fantastic I must be getting some fecking fantastic value with these punts.

^ 999/1

That .01 % is O Ps profit !   

no moves

it seems that the simplest of laws confuse the most people like what goes up must come down has evoked mankind into the realisation that after failing to understand gravity or cure the common cold that we are as a cosmic interlectual race mere babes in the woods.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

it seems that the simplest of laws confuse the most people like what goes up must come down has evoked mankind into the realisation that after failing to understand gravity or cure the common cold that we are as a cosmic interlectual race mere babes in the woods.

are you from another planet then b/f

b/f if you back outsiders blindly on the horses you will end up with no shirt and no boots

if you back favourites blindly...you will still lose...but not as much

if you only backed horses at ridiculous odds on prices... say 2/7 or shorter, you would lose even less
you may even win on a season but not a lot

just my imo

Yoda in disguise.

I think what you may have been trying to say b/f
was the shortest price horse in a race may not always be the best value
which could well be true....(although not always)

But this means you have assessed a horses chances by other means form, stats, etc
and you dont think it should be that short
so you may want to lay it on here or find something else which seems better value
ie your ratings put it 1lb behind but it a much bigger price

ebulGery
10 Mar 13 23:11
Joined:
08 May 10
| Topic/replies: 6,534 | Blogger: ebulGery's blog
it seems that the simplest of laws confuse the most people like what goes up must come down has evoked mankind into the realisation that after failing to understand gravity or cure the common cold that we are as a cosmic interlectual race mere babes in the woods.

are you from another planet then b/fConfused

b/f if you back outsiders blindly on the horses you will end up with no shirt and no boots

if you back favourites blindly...you will still lose...but not as much

if you only backed horses at ridiculous odds on prices... say 2/7 or shorter, you would lose even less
you may even win on a season but not a lot

just my imo



lotta guessing going on here.


got any stats

no

I always guess

think I am right though?

I dont know if a website would show this

the 2/7 and shorter was correct years ago...dont know if it still is

If this most basic law about betting over percieved chances were not the case the manxy you wil have to keep scrathing your head manxy when using your web derived ratings and finding that all top.rated make less profit than second rated, being that it is the case though gives you the answer...

You will only ever profit long term from backing or laying at the maximum points of market inaccuracies and at points of highest and lowest percieved levels of chance the conditions for profit evaporate.

at the maximum points of market inaccuracies

in other words in horse racing the profit possible from backing horses at 6/1 that run like 3/1 shots is far greater than the profit possible from finding 2/1 shots that run like even money shots which ate few and far between due to being chalked up and betted more accuratly and devoid of value generally.

Bf_f you do come out with some crackers tbf.

Flaws against....................

Bookmakers paint their brains on their boards...........always has been thus.Little different now even with the exchanges making them lazy.

Bookies and layers (same thing) work to a percentage of the book,no more and no less and if they have the balance correct they will win overall.That is how simple it is,makes no difference the probability or possibility of any outcome or density of support for a particular occurrence.

If the book is balanced correctly it will win on most occasions.On the few occasions when a book loses it is almost invariably because the basics have been ignored and personal opinion has entered the arena.

As a backer,it should make little or no difference what price is on offer providing the backer has an advantage over the book........................ie knowledge that a particular outcome is more likely than the book has allowed for.

Only then can a backer beat a layer.hth

And BTW.................there has NEVER been a horse that knew its price before,during or after a race.nap

Or more to the point...........understood what price it could,should or is expected to run too.hth

so you dont think that backing every horse in every race at bfsp can be profitable then.

Are you asking bf_f or yourself that question manky?

Whatever.............backing every horse in a race at ISP or Bf sp............you cant lose......can you?

Shirley you will always have the winner?

heres some stats 2 chew on.


what type of races are they for

backing every runner 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 3187

profit gross 253.44pts
nett profit 215.54pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 3167

profit gross 390.69pts
nett profit 354.34pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 3117

profit gross 387.27pts
nett profit 351.56pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 3290

profit gross 177.15pts
nett profit 141.34pts



    gross   
2008    253.44pts   
2009    390.69pts   
2010    387.27pts   
2011    177.15pts   
total    1208.55pts   
       
    nett   
2008    215.54pts   
2009    354.34pts   
2010    351.56pts   
2011    141.34pts   
total    1062.78pts   
       
       
       
       
bets    12759   
r.o.i    108%    nett




backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 1832

profit gross 292.04pts
nett profit 252.54pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 1734

profit gross 563.40pts
nett profit 522.22pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 1694

profit gross 396.36pts
nett profit  357.39pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 1746

profit gross 238.36pts
nett profit  203.29pts


    gross   
2008    292.04pts   
2009    563.40pts   
2010    396.36pts   
2011    238.36pts   
total    1490.16pts   
       
    nett   
2008    252.54pts   
2009    522.22pts   
2010    357.39pts   
2011    203.29pts   
total    1335.44pts   
       
       
bets    7006   
r.o.i    119%    nett

I suppose that there must be a formula that can equate how the envelope parameters can effect the average chance

of finding profit or the average potential yield from any race via data such as fav price, field size, race type,
going, form exposure etc, etc....

THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE

I USED TO LEARN THINGS LIKE THAT WHEN I WAS AT SCHOOL AND LOOK AT ME NOW

Well considering the intellectual steam created on the thread Do wah Diddy by many posters in opposing this law

it seems that many need to go back to betting school

YOU NEED TO BE CLEVER AT SUMS TO KNOW THE REAL ANSWER .SOME ONE LIKE CAROL VAUDAMAN

you seem to have figures to support b/f manxy

I am mainly a greyhound racing punter,  backing every dog in a race would not be profitable
becuase the average sp is less than 5/1

what type of race do these stats belong to ebul, otherwise i could just be making hem up outta thin.





backing every runner 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 3187

profit gross 253.44pts
nett profit 215.54pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 3167

profit gross 390.69pts
nett profit 354.34pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 3117

profit gross 387.27pts
nett profit 351.56pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 3290

profit gross 177.15pts
nett profit 141.34pts



    gross   
2008    253.44pts   
2009    390.69pts   
2010    387.27pts   
2011    177.15pts   
total    1208.55pts   
       
    nett   
2008    215.54pts   
2009    354.34pts   
2010    351.56pts   
2011    141.34pts   
total    1062.78pts   
       
       
       
       
bets    12759   
r.o.i    108%    nett




backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 1832

profit gross 292.04pts
nett profit 252.54pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 1734

profit gross 563.40pts
nett profit 522.22pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 1694

profit gross 396.36pts
nett profit  357.39pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 1746

profit gross 238.36pts
nett profit  203.29pts


    gross   
2008    292.04pts   
2009    563.40pts   
2010    396.36pts   
2011    238.36pts   
total    1490.16pts   
       
    nett   
2008    252.54pts   
2009    522.22pts   
2010    357.39pts   
2011    203.29pts   
total    1335.44pts   
       
       
bets    7006   
r.o.i    119%    nett

ebulGery

you seem to have figures to support b/f manxy

I am mainly a greyhound racing punter,  backing every dog in a race would not be profitable
because the average sp is less than 5/1

Very interesting that you bet on Greyhounds as I did alot of research on them and you are indeed right.

Have you tried laying fav dogs housed in trap 4 at most tracks?

or backing dogs with improving times last 3 races that haven't won a race in last 3

ebulGery,

Don't follow this fruitcake's advice - the only reason he is posting his guff on horse racing is because his system couldn't make money on the greyhounds

Actually I can make a profit form Greyhounds at around 115% Return on investment but I percieve

horse racing as the biggest potential earner with 150% Returns on Investment possible and greater

liquidity, hence I jumped ship

Actually I can make a profit form Greyhounds at around 115% Return on investment but I percieve horse racing as the biggest potential earner with 150% Returns on Investment possible and greater liquidity, hence I jumped ship

WALOFS

Dr Gonzo though I doubt you do any meaningful research, I have logged thousands of Greyhound and Horse races

and I, as do many know the real picture and it is very Rosie to say the least

If you could make that ROI you'd be betting and making money.

You don't bet.

We can all join the dots. You are a compulsive liar.

Doctor, if I were a painter I would not expect to paint a master piece until I had spent

years learning to use the tools, the paints and the canvas and simply throwing paint

around in the form of chaotic betting does not appeal to my admiration of the art of betting

leave it out doc

bf_fan - re OP - really glad my mind doesn't work like yours. Think you're better of served trying to pick a few winners than coming up with cr@p that serves no one especially yourself.

come on bf now enuoghs enough,we aint all just come over on the last bananaboat yknow,if you had that edge you wouldn't be going out to work youd be having a bet on the dags now wouldn't you?? its simples really isn't it!! go to work or put all that energy into something you have learnt from studying into making profit! mmhh that's a hard one ..don't treat people like pricks bf as a lot of people on here just may take offence to your stupidity

lalalalalalalalalalalalalahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Bf......Are you a fiver a time punter or would you class yourself as a big hitter?

dat sounds like a scouser wiv a Laa

stutter

what type of race do these stats belong to ebul, otherwise i could just be making hem up outta thin.

no idea...what type?

what type of race do these stats belong to ebul, otherwise i could just be making hem up outta thin.

no idea...what type?

pm manxy ,, what I should look out for,il do some homework for ya

they are all the NHF races run since the beginning of the bfsp.

The reason NHF is profitable at bigger than the first 3 in betting is because both backers

and layers are going to be highly inaccurate at judging the predicted performances of horses that have

mostly never run a NHF race and will on average only run a few times and always fits in with the tradition

of courses having a carve up race for the last to fill up gaps in satchels...

i only give them that sniff to get them started.

not bad stats tho,to repeat.

backing every runner 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 3187

profit gross 253.44pts
nett profit 215.54pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 3167

profit gross 390.69pts
nett profit 354.34pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 3117

profit gross 387.27pts
nett profit 351.56pts


backing every runner 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 3290

profit gross 177.15pts
nett profit 141.34pts



    gross   
2008    253.44pts   
2009    390.69pts   
2010    387.27pts   
2011    177.15pts   
total    1208.55pts   
       
    nett   
2008    215.54pts   
2009    354.34pts   
2010    351.56pts   
2011    141.34pts   
total    1062.78pts   
       
       
       
       
bets    12759   
r.o.i    108%    nett




backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2008
races 250
runners 1832

profit gross 292.04pts
nett profit 252.54pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2009
races 272
runners 1734

profit gross 563.40pts
nett profit 522.22pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2010
races 279
runners 1694

profit gross 396.36pts
nett profit  357.39pts



backing every runner 20/1 or greater 1pt l/s
2011
races 306
runners 1746

profit gross 238.36pts
nett profit  203.29pts


    gross   
2008    292.04pts   
2009    563.40pts   
2010    396.36pts   
2011    238.36pts   
total    1490.16pts   
       
    nett   
2008    252.54pts   
2009    522.22pts   
2010    357.39pts   
2011    203.29pts   
total    1335.44pts   
       
       
bets    7006   
r.o.i    119%    nett

hardly any comm to pay.

What do the favs return at said races manxy please?

dont know, but all runners 3s or below, 695 runners up until end aug 2012, were minus -61.40pts to level 1pt stakes minus 5 percent.

sorry 708 runners

favs in NHF 90% ROI, very industrial figures manxy

              2011-2012 LAY CHART (-5% comm)   




Guess which coloured lines represents the Bsp and Average fav, BF_F?

thats bfsp.

to bff.

To confirm my point about how the yield from backing a quantum of races reduces as

the perceived chance increases I will post some examples from the last 75 Cheltenham races

including last years Festival and these are based on predicting the chance of every runner

and then using a minimum thresh hold of chance(as a filter) before choosing the most profitable predicted runner

and it proves this point emphatically  ...

oh go and get **** you idiot

you really do my fukin noodle in you do ,such a ****

It's no good posting 'some examples'.

You need to take 'all' races from a meeting - preferably sevaral years worth. Otherwise you'll just pick races that fit your theory.

You weren't called backfitting_fananatic for nothing.

Dear Auntie Jane,
System nearly perfected.
Send more money.
50% ROI tells you all you need to know (if indeed,you needed any further confirmation that BFF is utterly certifiable).

To confirm my point about how the yield from backing a quantum of races reduces as

the perceived chance increases I will post some examples from the last 75 Cheltenham races

including last years Festival and these are based on predicting the chance of every runner

and then using a minimum thresh hold of chance(as a filter) before choosing the most profitable predicted runner

and it proves this point emphatically  ...



Take note as I go from minimum predicted chance of 10% through 20%,30% and finally 40% how not only

does the profit or yield reduce but also the number of available runners that have a higher degree of chance

thus these runners look very exposed in markets and attract positive laying and more negative backing prices...


Minimum predicted chance set at 10%

Rank	run	win	SR%	Points Pft	Place Pft	Avg Bsp
1	75	24	32	124.87	22.51	8.33
2	74	5	6.756756757	31.03	29.74	21.01
3	68	8	11.76470588	1.57	9.85	8.70
4	1	0	0	-1	-1
5	0	0	0	0	0

Minimum predicted chance set at 20%

Rank	run	win	SR%	Points Pft	Place Pft	Avg Bsp
1	72	24	33.33333333	127.87	25.51	8.33
2	47	3	6.382978723	-25.29	18.51	7.24
3	10	1	10	-7.28	13.53	2.72
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0

Minimum predicted chance set at 30%

Rank	run	win	SR%	Points Pft	Place Pft	Avg Bsp
1	35	14	40	26.12	0.54	4.37
2	5	1	20	-2	-3.81	3.00
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0

Minimum predicted chance set at 40%

Rank	run	win	SR%	Points Pft	Place Pft	Avg Bsp
1	10	4	40	3.11	-2.33	3.28
2	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0
5	0	0	0	0	0

75 races BFFFS


Just in case you ducked answering, I'll give you some clues to the correct answer as you seem to suffer from colour blindness...

1 point stake	BSP - 5%	Avg - 5%
P/L after laying 19,467 favs @ BSP - 5%	-603	-777
P/L after laying 19,467 2nd favs @ BSP - 5%	-486	-168

What is 'predicted chance'? Predicted by what? - by SP? by BSP? by your spreadsheet based on your own algorithms - in which case your argument is invalid because it must be circular?

And take a look at the many stars and starlets of Cheltenham

in this list of predicted chances of 20% or more(points = PRed- CHance)

		Ran	129.00	129.00
		Won	28.00	61.00
		SR%	21.71	47.29
Combined rating
		P/L	95.30	57.55
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Trifolium37 p	28	3	-1	3.54
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sprinter Sacre25	35	1	1.82	1.36
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The Package493	24	4	-1	4.66
Magnanimity17 v1	21	6	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Hurricane Fly44	27	3	-1	1.18
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Maljimar175	26	7	-1	-1
Scotsirish37	24	16	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Quevega313	29	1	1.61	1.28
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
That´Ll Do151	41	20	-1	-1
Hunt Ball17	25	1	9	3.26
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Alfie Spinner25	30	5	-1	-1
Lively Baron19 b	25	9	-1	-1
Daffern Seal203	24	6	-1	-1
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Simonsig28	36	1	3.31	1.63
Monksland66	22	3	-1	2.66
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bobs Worth25	25	1	5.7	1.87
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Finian´s Rainbow53	44	1	5.9	1.91
Sizing Europe38	23	2	-1	1.2
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Silverhand230	26	4	-1	2.78
Saphir River130	20	26	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Champagne Fever52	22	1	22.54	5.71
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sir Des Champs47	28	1	4.7	1.78
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Restless Harry26	29	11	-1	-1
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Captain Chris47 t	29	4	-1	-1
Rubi Light26	28	5	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Big Buck´s47	31	1	1.87	1.23
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Notus De La Tour46 p	27	21	-1	-1
4:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Up The Beat39	26	4	-1	3.48
Mostly Bob74 t	23	15	-1	-1
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Countrywide Flame33	25	1	46	9.9
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Alderwood33	28	1	30	7.01
Sailors Warn28	23	3	-1	7.6
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Brindisi Breeze27	29	1	9	3
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Long Run28	45	3	-1	1.47
Midnight Chase48	22	7	-1	-1
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Roulez Cool657	34	21	-1	-1
Count Salazar19P	22	16	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Eradicate72	29	14	-1	-1
Kid Cassidy48	22	12	-1	-1
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Jimbill36	43	4	-1	-1
Medinas15	22	6	-1	-1
2:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
River D´Or15	25	6	-1	-1
3:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Pateese33 b	33	1	5	2.08
Minella Class53	31	10	-1	-1
3:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Aerial46	37	2	-1	1.69
The Cockney Mackem34	27	3	-1	1.69
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Benbens46	43	6	-1	-1
Cocacobana39	24	7	-1	-1
Water Garden60 p	22	2	-1	2.04
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Duke Of Lucca25 t	40	1	2.48	1.47
Mr Hudson31	24	3	-1	-1
Frascati Park53	23	4	-1	-1
5:30  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Teshali18 t	23	2	-1	3.07
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Swincombe Flame37	40	2	-1	1.15
Une Artiste36	37	1	3	1.19
2:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Qaspal30	32	6	-1	-1
3:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Tante Sissi26	42	9	-1	-1
Lady Karabaya26	37	7	-1	-1
3:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bradley12	33	2	-1	1.69
Indian Pipe Dream19	28	6	-1	-1
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Michel Le Bon54	31	1	12.5	2.69
Phare Isle18 t	28	4	-1	2.34
Golan Way36	23	3	-1	2.34
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Wester Ross12 v	41	5	-1	-1
Mister Matt15	26	2	-1	2.31
Tatispout19	22	3	-1	2.31
5:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Pistolet Noir24	30	8	-1	-1
Ice Cool Benny31P p	22	4	-1	-1
Swallows Delight53P	22	2	-1	8.85
5:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Gort Na Lea17P	36	7	-1	-1
My Lil Ledge10P t	26	3	-1	3.9
6:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The General Lee17P	32	8	-1	-1
Rumbury Grey15	22	4	-1	-1
6:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Upton Springs11P b	35	pu	-1	-1
Metal Detector23P	32	5	-1	-1
7:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bradley13	33	1	1.98	1.38
Keenan´s Future20 p	22	F	-1	-1
7:50 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Special Portrait6 t	28	1	3.75	1.61
Dear Villez11P	26	5	-1	-1
Mid Div And Creep68 t	24	6	-1	-1
8:20  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Silver Adonis20 b	22	1	9.45	2.38
2:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The New One	31	1	2.01	1.28
Village Vic	22	2	-1	2.14
Churchfield Champ	21	pu	-1	-1
2:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
King Of The Night	32	3	-1	-1
Go All The Way	22	F	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Heaney	29	3	-1	1.88
American Spin	22	7	-1	-1
3:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Epee Celeste	32	pu	-1	-1
4:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Court Minstrel	33	1	7.6	2.48
Jimjim Mac Cool	27	11	-1	-1
5:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Graduation Night	29	4	-1	3.16
Talab	21	3	-1	5.09
5:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Dreambrook Lady	24	16	-1	-1
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Minella For Value	28	6	-1	-1
Brass Tax	25	5	-1	-1
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bobowen	24	19	-1	-1
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Baby Mix	29	3	-1	-1
Hi Note	23	2	-1	1.96
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Fruity O'Rooney	28	20	-1	-1
What An Oscar	23	14	-1	-1
Queiros Bleu	22	3	-1	6.41
3:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Wellforth	29	13	-1	-1
Hold On Julio	20	3	-1	2.94
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
His Excellency	38	1	10.67	2.65
5:30  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Tinelyra	33	15	-1	-1
Fiddlers Bid	22	3	-1	21
Southfield Theatre	21	1	2.72	1.58
12:15 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Super Duty	48	1	3.49	1.77
Hildisvini	20	F	-1	-1
12:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Red Rouble	35	2	-1	3.5
The Big Freeze	28	3	-1	3.33
1:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Dark Lover	30	1	6	1.73
Hawkhill	28	16	-1	-1
1:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Crash	29	6	-1	-1
Bradley	29	5	-1	-1
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Uncle Junior	30	10	-1	-1
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Cross Kennon	29	6	-1	-1
Monetary Fund	21	7	-1	-1
3:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Mr Watson	27	5	-1	-1
Village Vic	26	6	-1	-1
12:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Far West	37	1	1.25	1.04
12:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
1:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Garynella	35	3	-1	-1
1:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Aerial	21	2	-1	1.95
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Cristal Bonus	26	12	-1	-1
Unioniste	25	1	9.71	2.9
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Grandouet	38	2	-1	2.02
Rock On Ruby	33	3	-1	-1
3:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Oscar Whisky	47	1	1.24	1.05
0	points	Result	Pl/s	place

affect, not effect

Predicted by Formulations and no referencing to price what so ever but results are in BSP which is hugely more profitable than

Indusrty at Cheltenham...

So all you're doing is assessing the accuracy of your own predictions. You're not proving any 'law'.

As you can see Cheltenham is the supreme course for NH betting profit as is Newbury and Doncaster also to the turf sphere

Kempton and Wolverhampton are the picks for the AW courses for backing profits...

loony tune

dik

nob

nutjob

fool

backfitter

fruitcake

uphill gardner

rodders

lalalalalalala

I have alot for faith in the average race horse than i could ever have in you daza40, sad but true...

good for you same here loony  b a s ta r d

by the way im only messing you do actually make some good sence now and again

He's lost the plot again!

by the way im only messing you do actually make some good sence now and again

He makes more sense when he's fooking sleeping daza

heres the top rated for Taunton using the same chance prediction as I will use at

Cheltenham tomorrow so stay tuned folks

2:20 »	points
Little Dutch Girl	42
2:50 »	points
Miss Overdrive	26
3:20 »	points
Tzora	27
4:20 »	points
Scales	34
3:50 »	points
Upham Atom	41
4:50 »	points
Rebel Du Maquis	23
5:20	points
August Hill	34

bf_fananatic ,



good evening. Where are your work books for tomorrow  ?   

your in luck my fellow form fan as I am going to publish them now on a thread

surprisingly my tent or yours , well he wouldn't be in my tent as a winner having an 8% chance

SUPERLATIVE ! 

In my lst flawed post on this thread I refered to him as being fantastic, on reflection I think he maybe a fanatic.

effects the backing of all events.....? 

effects????


its 'affects' you numskull


and your analysis is and remains flawed

numskull

all sports betting is based on opinion
there is no mathematical formulae..
stats can help that is all

also bookmakers or b/f prices are just opinions not probability

opinions backed by money of course..but that is all they are

Pre Betfair,

If you backed a selection at 1/1, you were 8/11 coupled, to get beat!

Conversely, if you backed a selection at 8/1, you were 1/12 coupled, to get beat!