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10 Mar 13
14:44
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Date Joined:
17 Jul 11
A very simple but profound law that gives layers an incredible advantage over backers by virtue of the amount
of money that is pushed onto such chances!
THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE.
This may seem obvious but the figures tell you that this fact is the most commonly overlooked aspect of backing an outcome
thus the more likely something looks then the more money pushes this price beyond the realistic chance of a profit occurring Q.E.D
of money that is pushed onto such chances!
THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE.
This may seem obvious but the figures tell you that this fact is the most commonly overlooked aspect of backing an outcome
thus the more likely something looks then the more money pushes this price beyond the realistic chance of a profit occurring Q.E.D
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Replies: 151
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Also , chickens lay eggs
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then if you reverse it..................
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As is usual with your wordy, convoluted nonsense - a mixture of hypothesis and invalid assumptions, dressed up as fact.
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THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE.
Show your working. |
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If someone puts up 1.05 that tomorrow is a Monday, and people back it down to 1.02 thinking that's a good bet, is that now bad value?
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eureka
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Ged , tomorrow being Monday is a certainty and thus would not be in any betting books as an odds chance
but this basic law of betting doesn't mean that within high chance outcomes that you cant find profit it just means in becomes increasingly harder to find and less likely as for instance you only get one Frankel every 100 or so years  |
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bf_fananatic Joined: 17 Jul 11
Replies: 11224 10 Mar 13 13:44 'THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE'. ----------------- He must have read Anaglogs thread on the new Ripon ('in-house'Tote) betting set-up. Or, Chesterbet/Bangorbet has just dawned on him, too. |
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safe to presume most people on here that are making money are layers then?,
winning from oods on bets. always informative bf_fanatic. |
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Arkle and Flyinbolt were probably the 2 greatest chasers ever, and came along with 2 years of each other.
Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef and Nijinsky were 3 of the greatest flat horses ever, and came along within a year of each other. Your 'rules' are not rules at all. Just hypotheses which are sometimes true, sometimes not. |
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but this basic law of betting
Show your working. |
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both Arkle and Flyingbolt from the same trainer and if trained by someone else would of been
more likely ordinary jumpers on maybe not even entered into jumping at all... |
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betfair sp < 1.5 316 roi -5.5
betfair sp > 1.5 102271 roi -6.5 OP is more pish from bff |
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Amazing fact that irrespective of the size of the barrel and the bigger the farmers gun
the same great number of fish happy to jump into the barrel... |
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Mr Fananatic- there is one flaw in your hypothesis.
The odds available are THE ODDS PERCEIVED BY THE MARKET MAKERS! These are not infallable otherwise there would be no gambolling! Therefore"THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE." does not apply because the true chance is not reflected by the odds on offer! I hope this clarifies the matter! Dr Aristotle Slicer Professor of Satististististics North Southeast Mumbai university |
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you're just an attention seeking ponce who admits to not even betting and has nothing of substance to add to the forum so starts these nonsense threads that don't make any sense in the real world of those of us who actually punt and trade consistently over many markets
why don't you just do one you pathetic little twerp? and don't come back with some bollocks smart mouth reply unless you wanna meet up and say it, tw@t, you don't even bet I probably turned over more yesterday in a few races and tennis matches than you do in a year fish in a barrel? it's you the little 'only me' Harry Enfield character that's a fish, a tiny fish in a huge ocean of people that actually punt and trade real volumes of money |
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thank you mr pullien
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i've just realised that bf fanatic is the biggest fishing expedition in the history of the Horse Racing forum
 ...despite having found myself in the net many times, i cant help but feel a grudging respect for the extraordinary lengths that he has gone to over the months, particularly those incessant, mindnumbing tables...bf fishnatic, i salute you  |
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Mr judorick- why don't you stop sitting on the fence and tell us whether you like him or not?
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I think Judorick is secretly Bf Fananatics greatest fan, bless
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“But it is not essential for applicants to have an in depth understanding of racing and sport – moreover, we are looking for applicants who are confident, have a cheerful disposition and most of all enjoy interacting with the public.”
bf - get that cv off to RiponBET now!! |
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Considering bookmaking is in my blood thanks to granny then perhaps I would be a suitable
candidate but I much prefer studying fields of form to be honest... |
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bf_fananatic 10 Mar 13 14:26
'both Arkle and Flyingbolt from the same trainer and if trained by someone else would of been more likely ordinary jumpers or maybe not even entered into jumping at all'... ------------------------------- bf_lunatic ... You have posted some BALLCOCKS on here .... But THAT, really does, beat 'em all - - and only goes to prove how completely CLUELESS you are. |
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I stand by that claim and alot of the Jumping superstars would of been just another horse
had they not landed at the door of the right trainer to bring the best out in them ... |
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the biggest fishing expedition in the history of the Horse Racing forum
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What is a"fishing expedition" ?
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Mr Fananatic- there is one flaw in your hypothesis.
The odds available are THE ODDS PERCEIVED BY THE MARKET MAKERS! These are not infallable otherwise there would be no gambolling! Therefore"THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE." does not apply because the true chance is not reflected by the odds on offer! I hope this clarifies the matter! Dr Aristotle Slicer Professor of Satististististics North Southeast Mumbai university Good point Slicer and I should of said the "perceived chance" as its the generalisation of chance perception of say a favorite winning that creates the smaller prices than would be normal or average but the whole mechanism is indeed a funneling effect that evaporates the likely hood of profit occurring as the greater the chance in fairness then the more likely also it is picked up by the greater amount of pundits unless of course the horse has a greater gallops profile than on track though keeping this secret these days with hawks watching market plunges is becoming less and less likely. |
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bf-f
Have you ever been to Macau? |
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Good point Slicer and I should of said the "perceived chance"
You probably shouldn't have bothered saying anything tbh. Clueless guesser. |
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bf fantasist
ffs are you still here ysc ? |
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THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF AN OUTCOME OCCURRING IN BETTING THEN THE LESS LIKELY THAT THE PRICE WILL BE PROFITABLE.
erm....wrong!!!!  the opposite is true the shorter the price, the greater chance of it winning, so the greater chance of profit |
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A more deluded Bullshatter than BFF has yet to post on here.
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youre a close second racingstar if thats any help
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You are appropriately named.
Highly likely to be a Council House Rat on Benefits. |
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too generous with praise |
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Hopefully an appearance on Saints & Scroungers awaits you,Chavo !
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