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koikeeper
19 Feb 13 18:52
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Date Joined: 02 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 25,534 | Blogger: koikeeper's blog
DONCASTER 4.30

DANTES STORM

One of my favourites.
A horse that goes from the front … anything that takes it on will be going too quick!

Said to be a bit fragile & Off the track since 2011 ,,ran a blinder in the 2011 foxhunters on ground maybe a touch too quick for it.
Had its “come back” run at Larkhill in January (2013)… where it finished 4th beaten around 12L by SYBARITE ,  ROULEZ COOL,  & COOMBE HILL ……led until 3 out & finally  weakened approaching the last….an excellent run considering the length of time off the track against two  good horses….wore the TT here.

COOMBE HILL who only finished 4L in front of it has gone on to finish 2nd to KIRKLEIGH in a Hunter  & also hammered RUMBREY GREY at chelt in a good Hunter Chase  last season.

DANTES STORM was back to something like its best last time in a point, again wearing the TT, raced in its customary  front running roll & ran them into the ground winning  unchallenged in a decent race.
Seems better with cut & stays, so the distance is no problem…but has a habit of hitting one, but never looks like coming down,

RUMBURY GREY

Must have decent ground!
It won 5-7 Hunters last season, beaten twice when the ground was soft…trainer form is a worry, Steve Flook has yet to hit form this season.
Always had my doubts about it staying, but proved that it definitely does, when it beat Monkerty Tunkerty last season over 28f.
If the ground is soft I think this will struggle on its 1st run back this season.

POSTMASTER

The highest rated here on official rating, but not the best horse here imo…
Broke  a BV in the grand national last year & another that doesn’t want it soft...another that wears the TT
Had a pipe opener on the flat at Wolverhampton when well beat a couple of weeks ago, easily beat START ROYAL in a hunter last season, wont win this on that running  & needs to improve its overall form to win this…….doesnt really find much when push comes to shove against good horses.

TARTAN SNOW

Ran a good race last time just beaten by Sacred Mountain, but that was a poor Hunter ran at a snails pace ….it will have trouble laying up here, especially against the likes of DANTES STORM


With doubts about fitness/ground for RUMBREY GREY, then the bet for me has to be DANTES STORM, With fitness on its side &  a bold front runner, it  could take the world of catching around this galloping track.
…………………………………………………………………………….

LUDLOW 4.50

BERMUDA BOY

Never thought I would ever go for this horse, but it looks a stand out here back over 20f…
I have always said it has trouble staying 3m, but got the trip well last time in a very poor Hunter.
This race imo is no better,…. It finished 3rd to What a Laugh & Current Exchange over 3m, but at todays trip it was travelling as well as those two &  ultimately didn’t stay.
With the benefit of a  run, should prove too good for these & maybe Steve Flooks first winner this season.

FAIRWOOD PRESENT

The old man…beaten by Island Life a couple of times last season in Hunters, pulled up in a P2P in December & maybe age is catching up with it…..not getting any better at 15yrs old….but gives its running more often than not.

MARTYS MISSION

Gave an excellent run  when finishing 3rd to Kirkleigh, staying on late, this 20f has to be on the short side for it & could well be out paced, but that form with Kirkleigh is very decent form in the context of this race.

It will be a disappointment if BERMUDA BOY  cannot take this, especially back at 20f & with a run under its belt in a poor race will be hard to stop,

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Replies: 205
By:
Brother Mouzone
When: 19 Feb 13 19:06
I was just looking at the Doncaster card, you reckon Mr R Jarrett would have chosen to go to Doncaster for Rumbury Grey over the two at Ludlow or would Flooky have decided who rides what?
By:
koikeeper
When: 19 Feb 13 19:11
RUMBURY GREY, much the better horse of the three,  would think Flook would have told him what to ride..
By:
Brother Mouzone
When: 19 Feb 13 19:20
Cheers, Jarrett rode Bermuda Boy in the Ludlow race last year so I was thinking maybe it was significant if he had the choice and chose to go to Doncaster, but it looks a very competitive race, think I'll be leaving them here. GL with your picks.
By:
allpoints
When: 19 Feb 13 20:17
Interesting about the jockeys here.I haven't looked to see how often Jarrett rides for Flooky or Dave Mansell for Flooky.However I would think Mansell is the most experienced of the pair & he is riding Coin Of The Realm.Coin Of The Realm has never jumped a fence in public yet it's straight into a Hunter.Steve Flook is a very shrewd trainer & I wouldn't be surprised to see this horse put up a good show tomorrow.May not win but it could be one to watch for the future.I certainly wont be laying it.
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 19 Feb 13 20:21
Good luck koi, where is 1st time posters guess though - always a wealth of knowledge that boy....
By:
Deltâ
When: 19 Feb 13 20:23
nice to see you going for double digits Magic__Daps
By:
sparrow
When: 19 Feb 13 20:33
1st time poster busy on the Football forum at the moment
By:
1st time poster
When: 19 Feb 13 21:10
just popped in to see koi tipping 2 favs, again,again,again,again
By:
metro john
When: 19 Feb 13 21:46
Yes good luck koikeeperWink Postmaster on better ground i would bet e/w,Hinton Indiana does seem to have gone backwards.So a good race if one of your favs on the mark!
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 19 Feb 13 21:57
ground might not be too bad at donny, might be worth checking times before deciding on that race koi? I thought his run at Newbury was promising enough considering the ground, if it's riding closer to good tomorrow then think he could just beat DS.
Quite looking forward to that race
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 19 Feb 13 22:06
1st time poster - when you have been chipping away the last few weeks you were saying "back the first 3 in the betting". So you are slating someone who is well in front this season who only picks one per race - you must be dutching them and getting about 1/8.

Although you did put one up against cottage oak last week - remind us how that got on...

It wouldn't be so bad if koi was just sticking one up without doing the homework, and was way behind but he isn't. Can you just not go and troll with the other vermin on here and leave all this stalking alone?
By:
pauli
When: 19 Feb 13 22:21
Thanks for the previews koi.  Great stuff as always.  Good luck.
By:
reveley
When: 19 Feb 13 23:23
I can't split Rambury Grey and Dantes Storm - no bet for me

The race at Ludlow seems a lot more straight forward though. Bermuda Boy should win!
By:
koikeeper
When: 20 Feb 13 04:17
1st time poster
just popped in to see koi tipping 2 favs, again,again,again,again


Do you think Dantes Storm will be fav?...

Would rather try & pick the winner regardless of price instead of just guessing....
By:
metro john
When: 20 Feb 13 06:29
yes selection over value limits yours bets!Wink
By:
mange
When: 20 Feb 13 06:50
see 1st time poster on .................again,again,again,OH!...........not again
By:
holywell
When: 20 Feb 13 10:31
Good luck koi,

There have been a few posters on your threads who question your selections, but, they have communicated in an effective manner hence  they are contributing to the threads. You've deservedly gained a following on here, but, you still get 1TP constantly criticising your selections despite you being in front. I'm sure 1TP is just being mischievous, he doesn't deserve a response to his posts.
By:
niknak
When: 20 Feb 13 10:41
If the ground is soft I think this will struggle on its 1st run back this season.

It ran 35 days ago if I'm not mistaken, not really it's first run.
By:
koikeeper
When: 20 Feb 13 14:29
niknak you are right....must have been looking at something else....getting up at 4am taking its toll lol
By:
koikeeper
When: 20 Feb 13 14:32
metro john 20 Feb 13 06:29
yes selection over value limits yours bets


I dont have that many bets anyway...what I meant was only referring to the Hunters...will put up what I think will win...cant do anything about the price.
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 15:21
I like you tips koikeeper and My application agrees with you, did you fancy munkerty tunkerty as I had it top rated!
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 15:22
Rumbery grey also comes out tops I think, let me check...
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 15:38
    1:45 »          points   
    Talkonthestreet         47   
    So Fine         33   
               
    2:20 »          points   
    Somemothersdohavem         26   
    Swnymor         23   
               
    2:50 »          points   
    Monkerty Tunkerty         16   
    Marufo         16   
               
    3:25 »          points   
    Catching On         33   
    Cheltenian         20   
               
    3:55 »          points   
    Moonlight Drive         20   
    Cocacobana         17   
               
    4:30 »          points   
    Rumbury Grey         28   
    Dante's Storm         19   
               
    5:05          points   
    Minellaforleisure         39   
    Un Ace         34   
               
By:
jrw
When: 20 Feb 13 15:58
could never back Bermuda boy 4.50 ludlow its a dog
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:01
    3:55 »          points   
    Moonlight Drive         20   
    Cocacobana         17   
    Velator         15   
By:
koikeeper
When: 20 Feb 13 16:02
BF...Why are you posting all that rubbish on here..its a Hunter chase thread..
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:04
And here are all the predicted strike rates for the last race with the winner highlighted to show that it was

profitable at the odds on offerWink


Knight Pass     0.93
Jetnova     3.54
Velator     15.40
Moonlight Drive     20.33
Mister Dillon     2.93
My Arch     2.78
Shalone     0.31
Enter Paradise     6.03
Harvey's Hope     2.49
Cocacobana     16.51
Kent Street     0.00
Dawn Twister     8.00
Doctor Foxtrot     12.61
Hot Whiskey     0.00
Solway Sam     0.31
Solway Bay     7.83
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:05
Winner 4th ranked and at predicted Strike rate below and odds, clearly one to be onWink

Knight Pass     0.93
Jetnova     3.54
Velator     15.40
Moonlight Drive     20.33
Mister Dillon     2.93
My Arch     2.78
Shalone     0.31
Enter Paradise     6.03
Harvey's Hope     2.49
Cocacobana     16.51
Kent Street     0.00
Dawn Twister     8.00
Doctor Foxtrot     12.61
Hot Whiskey     0.00
Solway Sam     0.31
Solway Bay     7.83
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:10
Runner           Chance
Keenan's Future     5.65
Postmaster     9.34
Rumbury Grey     28.40
Simply Smashing     14.98
Tartan Snow     13.67
Dante's Storm     18.87
Supreme Plan     3.14
Hinton Indiana     5.95
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:13
simply smashing has best percieved ROI%
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:14
Rumbery grey though best chanced looks shy of being profitable...
By:
sparrow
When: 20 Feb 13 16:15
Go away
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:21
Dantes Storm is an obvious lay and poor favorite offering via Industry vices...
By:
halcyon days
When: 20 Feb 13 16:25
Shocked
By:
Ylime
When: 20 Feb 13 16:27
Simply Smashing is my guess, e/w put gl
By:
sickoflayinwinners
When: 20 Feb 13 16:27
hi koi , when dantes won that soft race round our way he was impressive(youd expect that  if he ran to form) i agree i think he will win ,hell be too wuick for rumbery , ill back him at anything bigger than 7/4 , he still does get a bit low now and again but  should win.
By:
genelec
When: 20 Feb 13 16:27
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:27
Dantes storm has never won over 3 m 1 F, get it layedWink
By:
bf_fananatic
When: 20 Feb 13 16:29
Genelec magically appears when ever i give betting advice only, work that one outWink
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