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18 Feb 13
20:11
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Date Joined:
27 Aug 07
Today I had 30 bets,all to win,level stakes. Is that too much to expect to make a profit long term ?
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Replies: 38
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depends how many and at what odds the winners are
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If you get a winner at 33/1 or two at 16/1. But sounds like too many to me.
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10 winners,made 11 points profit.
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If you show a profit over the long term it's irrelevant isn't it? Sounds like to many to me though
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The last 2 SATS I havent backed a winner
The last 2 SUNDAYS Ive got me money back Thats how MAD the game can be............ |
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How many races did you bet in? Only 21 races today so assume you're backing more than one horse per race.
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just checked my diary,ive done 11 this year.
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I found something to back in 18 of todays races,twice backed 3 in a race though only got 1 winner.
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punting is just a numbers game - the more the merrier
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It's like roulette.... Just cover most of the screen in green
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Betting in 18, out of 21 races .... from a simple 'Punting just to back a winner philosophy'.
No chance of long-term SURVIVAL - let alone ANY Profit. |
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Im not punting just to back a winner.Im hoping there is value in my madness. I do question if i can find value in that many bets each day.I just wondered if any long term winners back as many as me,and if not how many bets do they have.
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TTT, looks like you are dutching, which is not the same as backing 30 horses in different races, it can work very well if there are a few fancied runners in a race.
Did you try the triggered betting on Gruss? |
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One, and Tuesday it will be Our Ivor. Only fatigue can defeat it.
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yes aitch i used the triggered betting on gruss. Thanks for your help on that . I wasnt dutching,it was 30 win bets all at the same stake.
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The point is tiger if you're backing in 18 races, how much time can you have put into assesing the form for each race? If lets say you put in 3 hours after racing and 6 hours in the morning that gives an average of just 30 mins a race, if 10 runners per race average then thays just 3 mins per horse! Do you think that long term that is anywhere near enough time to put into assesing the chance of each horse to realistically make a profit!
Most of the best punters i have known would assess possibly 3 or 4 races per day thoroughly and end up possibly having a bet in one or two. |
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I agree stew,however, i dont spend one second on form study .
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How do you make your selections?
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^ Then you have NO chance, whatsoever.
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I'm with you Tiger.....who needs form
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You can actually break most aw races down very quickly especially if you know the runners and watch them run regularly enough,if you understand the standard times its even easier especially when finding a bet or decent price.Most of the aw cards i can do in an hour purely because i know most of the runners and understand the times,plus a high % of the races are very uncompetitive so i probably wouldn't see a bet at the prices,but it doesn't mean to say on a particular day you couldn't find ten bets as long as the prices are there.
But thats the usual catch 22,the picks maybe there but the prices aren't!  |
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Yes but you "know" the form Andy but this chap has bet on 2 jump cards and an AW card, presumably. If you "know" the form for a segment of racing it makes things a lot easier!
But this chap doesn't study form anyway!  |
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I would think thats pretty standard practise for a lot who use betfair stew,but then there's the opposite who say you can't have more bets,things can change overnight that could make the previous night no bets till the following day multiple bets.Things can even change 1/2 hour before a race where you've backed something strongly to where by the off you know its got no chance and like something completely different.That's why unless you know the formbook back to front you've got zero chance of winning,it's hard enough finding value even when you do!!
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Horse Racing: £22.03 Total P&L: £22.03
Horse Racing Showing 1 - 19 of 19 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 5f Hcap 18-Feb-13 17:55 18-Feb-13 18:01 5.33 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 2m NHF 18-Feb-13 17:00 18-Feb-13 17:04 1.52 Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 1m1f Mdn Stks 18-Feb-13 16:50 18-Feb-13 16:52 -4.00 Horse Racing / Carl 18th Feb : 2m1f Hcap Hrd 18-Feb-13 16:40 18-Feb-13 16:46 -6.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 18-Feb-13 16:30 18-Feb-13 16:36 -2.00 Horse Racing / Carl 18th Feb : 2m4f Hcap Chs 18-Feb-13 16:10 18-Feb-13 16:19 -4.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 3m Hcap Hrd 18-Feb-13 16:00 18-Feb-13 16:07 -4.00 Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 7f Mdn Stks 18-Feb-13 15:50 18-Feb-13 15:53 0.19 Horse Racing / Carl 18th Feb : 3m2f Hcap Chs 18-Feb-13 15:40 18-Feb-13 15:48 1.71 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 2m Mdn Hrd 18-Feb-13 15:25 18-Feb-13 15:30 3.23 Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 7f Hcap 18-Feb-13 15:15 18-Feb-13 15:17 -2.00 Horse Racing / Carl 18th Feb : 2m3f Hcap Hrd 18-Feb-13 15:05 18-Feb-13 15:11 5.14 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : To Be Placed 18-Feb-13 14:50 18-Feb-13 14:58 0.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 2m4f Nov Hrd 18-Feb-13 14:50 18-Feb-13 14:56 13.79 Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 1m4f Hcap 18-Feb-13 14:40 18-Feb-13 14:44 7.42 Horse Racing / Carl 18th Feb : 2m4f Nov Chs 18-Feb-13 14:30 18-Feb-13 14:36 5.52 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 3m2f Hcap Chs 18-Feb-13 14:20 18-Feb-13 14:27 -2.00 Horse Racing / Wolv 18th Feb : 1m4f Hcap 18-Feb-13 14:10 18-Feb-13 14:14 -2.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 18th Feb : 3m Hcap Chs 18-Feb-13 13:50 18-Feb-13 13:57 4.18 |
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only 2 quid stakes while im trialling
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Total P&L: £22.03
looks like you've found the holy gruel! |
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if your doing the form should be able to bet at least 1/2 or 3 races on the card most days and 3/4 on great days
on average very lucky to have 2/3 very good days a week and 1/2 average days and 1 day a week you breakeven. how many selections per race is a different set of criteria, usually you will be making extra selections in races but they wont be value bets, just be cover bets. more study the less of these cover bets you will have to make. |
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Response to Initial Poster.
Long long term winner on horses. Typically I'd have 2 bets per day weekdays and maybe 4-5 on Saturdays.Now maybe I'd have more if I bet hurdles too but I just do chases. There is value in almost every race but that will differ in how marginal it is. The issue for me in betting many many races is how thin I'd need to spread my energies and analysis. I just don't see how you can look at 30 races in a day in sufficient detail to determine whether there is value or not. It would be a vague guess at the very best but more likely a complete guess in reality. The number of factors a pro looks at when analysing a race are many and analysis is thorough. Typically there are 6 chases for me to look at (2 meetings) and it would take me 2 hours and that is only so short because I have an online database of ratings/comments for each horse that I can pull almost instantaneously. Then checking back on visual information, determining other factors ground, trainer form, liklehood of being primed for race, course suitability, race shape ...........list goes on. Now I don't believe anyone can put in 10 hours solid of studying races for the next days racing which is what it would take me to do 30 races properly so from that standpoint I just don't see how you can win betting like that. If you are doing it long term hats of to you. My dinosaur thinking maybe wrong but to me its 100% impossible to win betting like that. |
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ROFL BJT............thank fukc you are not my accountant or bloodstock agent.
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What you've just said is exactly what i have been doing for 10 years the first 7/8 years in the summer i was doing 8amam till 2am everyday ,the aws different as i can sift through that and do a card in an hour ij general.There is a burnout point and i reached it two years ago i still work from 8am till around midnight in the summer,three years ago i was doing every single race now i tend to look at cards and will leave distances alone leaving all races around 1m4fs and upwards alone.I also don't do the form for most group races as there's very rarely value and a large majority of the bigger handicaps where the draw has no edge,infact a large majority of the better class racing is to competitive so most of my time is spent on the smaller tracks.Those tracks/meetings invariably where most of the price mistakes are day in day out.
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To racing guru.
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No potshots BJT,sneaky feeling the OP has a nice full net.
If not............he/she/you need serious help.  |
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When your dad gets back, tell him to ban you from the computer and respond to my message.
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thegiggilo - Pro betting only appeals to me IF I have a better life than living the rat race. 2 hours studying form for next day (more if sat), 2 hours getting bets on, 2 hours doing the ratings of the days racing and maybe an hour entering it into the database is 7 hours of concentration. I believe if I had to do much more I'd get diminishing returns and would despise my work. Given that friday evenings are a must work time and that any breaks you take mean more workload when you come back I think for longevity and sanity in betting you need to specialise. For me its Oct - end of April - chases only.
Sure I forego a lot of opportunities but at least I have the confidence of knowing what I study I know better than the majority and as long as the betting profit percentage to stake is good you can always gear up the Kelly factor for staking. |
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tiger, how is your system working?
I hope you are still winning. |