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starship
14 Feb 13 22:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 3,094 | Blogger: starship's blog
just asking
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Report rcing February 15, 2013 7:11 PM GMT
anyone can read or be taught how to read form .

it's how you interpret it and what you do with it that counts .
Report koikeeper February 15, 2013 7:18 PM GMT
Its not just reading the form, you learn more by  actually watching the races.....
Report rcing February 15, 2013 7:21 PM GMT
yes koikeeper , i usually say "knowledge and judgement" . i guess watching and remembering comes into the knowledge side of things
Report artie February 15, 2013 7:27 PM GMT
"You can't beat the bookie". The bookie always wins".It's a mugs game"." It's all bent" etc.etc.All this negative nonsense is part of our culture.If you've got a brain,the truth is rather different.
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 7:27 PM GMT
You can watch all you like and try and interpret .................. then its luck that you are on a tryer ...... what home work can you put in watching the race? one horse in particular last year 5/4fav,  race weight 40 kg more than when it last won. So where can anybody get information like that required to bet a winner?
Report rcing February 15, 2013 7:29 PM GMT
race weight 40 kg more than when it last won. So where can anybody get information like that required to bet a winner?

i guess by being on course and seeing it in the paddock at both races .

yes , it is luck that you are on when it's trying , but that is where the judgement of "is it trying today " comes in .
Report rcing February 15, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
or should i say , if you owned it , would you want it to be trying today ?
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 7:38 PM GMT
if you owned it, would yo want it to be trying today?
A wee incident that hapened 2-3 years ago my nephew and his colleges owned a horse, they went for a touch on it at a northern course , Trainer said it was fit and raring to go and 6lb better in than when winning a race, the going was perfect, draw perfect, fitness perfect, distance perfect. top northern jockey not so perfect told the owners when getting a leg up "im giving this an armchair ride today as I can get my money on it" result finnished 7th of 8. 12 days later it ran and bolted in owner had only half the money on it they should have had as they had it on the first time. odds 9/2 to 12/1
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 7:46 PM GMT
thats ment to read cannt get my money on
Report manxy February 15, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
we know
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 7:53 PM GMT
we know ? what is it you know?
Report manxy February 15, 2013 7:55 PM GMT
i said 'we' know.
Report Kelly Brook February 15, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
winning v the bookies is a piece of pish (while your accounts last) , winning on here is another thing entirely
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 8:11 PM GMT
what exactly is it "we know" ? could you please elaborate
kelly i would love to give you guys my email and everyday you have a bet email me to verify your winnings at the end of the day/year. I would honestly say none of you would show a profit (im not trying to be argumentitive) its a misconception about winning.
Report C.F.KANE February 15, 2013 8:17 PM GMT
Why dont the people who say it is possible to make a living on here post their last 3 months P&L ?

Will put quite a few peoples minds at rest that "it can be done" however i have a strong feeling there are several Bull$hitters on this thread who are pure dreamers who simply want to look good an a "FACELESS" forum & therefore will slip quietly into the long grass only to reappear when this thread is long forgotten by some.

#Justsaying Love
Report mange February 15, 2013 8:20 PM GMT
I can find em............I guess wiv a "stakeing plan" YES

I was nearly a bag up when I started ............done most at Chelt...............just checked £220- behind ............not bad for a hobby.......... thats since Ive been on here Cool
Report rcing February 15, 2013 8:22 PM GMT
Period:         
Download to Spreadsheet     
?

    (relates to event settlement date)

   

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)    to


(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)    


Boxing: -£2.00 | Football: -£7.40 | Horse Racing: £25,805.18 | Motor Sport: -£17.66 | Snooker: -£2.00 | Special Bets: £31.66  Total P&L:  £25,807.78

i back/lay pre race , i also back/lay in running .

i also need to stop betting on snooker
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
Horse Racing: £8,083,657,987,654,398.26 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £8,083,657,987,654,398.26
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 8:27 PM GMT
everything can be maniplated to read as a winner
Report Greg_Gory February 15, 2013 8:28 PM GMT
Period:         
Download to Spreadsheet     
?

    (relates to event settlement date)

   

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)    to


(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)     


Boxing: -£2.00 | Football: -£7.40 | Horse Racing: £65,805.18 | Motor Sport: -£17.66 | Snooker: -£2.00 | Special Bets: £31.66  Total P&L:  £65,807.78

Tongue Out
Report rcing February 15, 2013 8:28 PM GMT
if you think that is bull xylophone , i will glady give you 5/1 for 5k .

betfair can be the middle man and confirm my 3 month p+l .

fancy it ?
Report rcing February 15, 2013 8:29 PM GMT
you too gg , after we have that half a lager Happy
Report Greg_Gory February 15, 2013 8:30 PM GMT
Laugh
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 8:33 PM GMT
Ive seen that many cases of it so when I actually see somebody account i dont believe it. As ive stated many times before I dont gamble now ....... i dont know if its a one off or your arbing as ive been caught out with that one before . (somebody stating they were winning but in the end the account showed a profit because of arbitration)
Report C.F.KANE February 15, 2013 8:35 PM GMT
Well done anyone in front on here & i truly mean that.

There will be some wan£shafts who will try & use the "i only use betfair for laying off so mine wont be that good" etc... etc...

This is the noose they use to hang themselves with clearly as anyone who still has an online account that still allows you to bet to reasonable amounts is simply a loser. Fact

As for the other dreamers / Bull$hitters..................... well what can i say ?
Report rcing February 15, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
arbing ?  ffs xylophone .
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
Bookmakers will class every single punter that is daft enough to get an account with them and make

a profit as an arber purely because they reckon every single punter that uses them, owes them a living

to pay for the high street experiment.
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
well if you believe some of the user on here they can make a living off it. and insome cases there account looks brill


as for accounts getting shut . i bet 7 winners at the footie at the end of the season a few years ago phoned up for the 8th bet yes you can have £1.77 on. bet numberofdaysinayear.
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
Only exchanges have built a betting model that accepts winners based on comission and premium charges

all the rest have disposed of all uneconomical bettors in favor of losing ones or addicted gamblers.
Report C.F.KANE February 15, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
There are some idiots on here who "claim" to make a living from betting horses the day before on a regular basis.


My head shaking more than John Mcricks on acid Devil
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 8:50 PM GMT
I very much doubt anyone can win every day
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 8:51 PM GMT
perhaps traders have the highest chance but even so they get bad days.
Report C.F.KANE February 15, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
There are some who claim to back horses on the day before markets & still make a profit.

It befuddles me in all honestly, i make circa £50K - £60K per annum & feel very lucky to do that, but this includes some on course trading which in itself is becomming more & more difficult.
Report Facts February 15, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
xylophone     15 Feb 13 19:27 
You can watch all you like and try and interpret .................. then its luck that you are on a tryer ...... what home work can you put in watching the race? one horse in particular last year 5/4fav,  race weight 40 kg more than when it last won. So where can anybody get information like that required to bet a winner?



Why on earth would you be wanting to back a 5/4 shot ??? Minimum should be 3/1, but usually c5/1 or 6/1
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 9:24 PM GMT
Each to there own abcking 5/4 shots . harry findley backing 1/3 shots etc ................... are you saying hes wrong?
Report xylophone February 15, 2013 9:24 PM GMT
Each to there own abcking 5/4 shots . harry findley backing 1/3 shots etc ................... are you saying hes wrong?
Report Facts February 15, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
bf_fananatic     15 Feb 13 20:50 
I very much doubt anyone can win every day



No you cannot win every day. the results are random. You are looking at the long run. eg 30 winners in a 100 bets. But with an average sp of 4/1. The sequence of winners/losers cannot be predicted.This is why any staking plans are bound to lose. If you cannot win at level stakes - you cannot win.
Report Facts February 15, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
Harry Findley ? - 1/3 shots ? - yes.You cannot win long term with these bets.  Where is he now ?
Report startedOct2000stillgoingstrong February 15, 2013 9:48 PM GMT
Harry F works at Coventry greyhound stadium I believe
Report MullahOmar February 15, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
Facts - You are the most ridiculously named poster on here, good luck if you are trying to be funny.

`1/3 shots ? - yes.You cannot win long term with these bets'.

`I bet 1 horse a day, very unlikely to be involved in a race with skulduggerry'.

LMAO
Report hello :-) February 15, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
only one way to win on here , use it for the reason it was designed
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 10:37 PM GMT
Stake plans are highly dangerous as they put punters into a false sense of security and the only real

protection from losing runs is very small percentage stakes and not crazy doubling up of stakes to claw back and chase

loses.
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
Backing odds on shots has a dual effect as not only have you the most chance of breaking even

but invariably also the least chance of making large long term profits unless backing super-size

stakesWink
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 10:56 PM GMT
Interstingly becasue I download and monitor all race course results I can see the effects in markets

that occur over loger periods and its fascintating to observe the same effects all the time.

What has struck me the most is that the market and for that matter the whole associated sport of horse

racing has waves of occurances that effect each other within races and invariably the reuslts and returns

and you can go 100 races say at Kempton or Wolves and see the majority of rated horses winning at shorter

odds and the higher odds not making much in the way of profit, then this can turn over the next 100 races

and the profit may shift on average to the middle market or sometimes even the far market though rarley.


Its rather like watching waves on a vast ocean .
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 11:10 PM GMT
Last night I researched a bank of 100 recent Kempton races and the best horses that were rated by the computer won
a fairly high proportion of races but not profitably as the average BSP was very small for the consistant sector of horses
with the best ratings, around 3.46 @ 22% SR which is loss making but a strange profitable blip at 4th rated had a number
of good returns and was in profit by 100 points.

On further examination if avoiding the consistant horses that were coming home at well backed prices and filtering

for improving types that were not over-improving and then filtering for best breeding i hit 200 points profit

for 100 or so selections though one was over 100 bsp but even taking this one out left 100 % or so profit and

though you cant expect this to happen all the time its probably a seasonal effect as what you have is horses that are

becoming up to there marks through rae fitness looking very exposed and retuning at shorter odds but mean while the

b grade improvers are then on offer at bigger odds due to the consistant horses taking the larger share of money

thus filtering for inproving and well bred horses that are hinting at coming to hand can be profitable one they have

has a reasonable amount of races.
Report bf_fananatic February 15, 2013 11:13 PM GMT
Once a horse has improved through race fitness to its mark and looks exposed it will be running at much shorter odds

and then not proftable to back thus the horses has hit a wave point in its seasonal career and in percieved value in backing.
Report warhan February 16, 2013 12:13 AM GMT
Yet again you have invaded a thread and bored the ar$e off everyone,when will you give up?
Report thegiggilo February 16, 2013 12:21 AM GMT
Facts is almost right,there is very rarely any value at the front end of the betting to win consistently,never mind backing odds on!!Shocked
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 12:56 AM GMT
facts is bang on about right in respect of short priced runners and this group represents

the most risk to layers as they attract the bulk of the betting and though a majority were probably profitable

at early prices, they soon become negative with many losing 33-66% of there original early price at race off time!

this little report that I am looking at now is all the last 200 races at Kempton AW and very well rated horses

that are sub 4.0 simply are not making a profit but possibly did before severely over backed by punters and odds

cut by Industry...

    Ran        12        13        109        93        60        50   
    Won        7        8        30        22        11        8   
    SR%        58        62        28        24        18        16   
    P/L points        -3        1.2        -19.64        12.69        17.5        18.85   
    Min odds        0        1.5        2        4        6        8   
    Max odds        1.49        1.99        3.99        5.99        7.99        9.99   
                                                       
                                                       
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 12:59 AM GMT
The 2.0 to 3.99 sector is the work of backers and the Indusrty creating an unprofitable 80%-90% ROI margin of off prices.
Report hello :-) February 16, 2013 12:59 AM GMT
Jesus christ almighty your relentless Laugh
Report hello :-) February 16, 2013 1:00 AM GMT
When you realise the stats you use are constantly changing your goin to get a big shock Laugh
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:02 AM GMT
You simply shift with the changes, through the seasons and over the differing tracks my friend and this is not something

that a computer cant work out nor the effect of differing prices available at different times of the day

its all academic !
Report GandalfTheGrey February 16, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
Bf fcukoff destroying threads with your sh1te, show respect!!!!!!!!!!
Report hello :-) February 16, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
So your constantly using a system that is obsolete
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:06 AM GMT
Check the rest of the price ranges 10 - 25 BSPWink

    Ran        18        19        22        21        17   
    Won        3        4        0        5        3   
    SR%        17        21        0        24        18   
    P/L points        15        33.49        -22        67.76        53.17   
    Min odds        10        12        14        16        20   
    Max odds        11.99        13.99        15.99        19.99        24.99   
                                               
                                               
Report GandalfTheGrey February 16, 2013 1:07 AM GMT
Bf fcukoff destroying threads with your sh1te, show respect!!!!!!!!!!
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:07 AM GMT
GandalfTheWet
Report GandalfTheGrey February 16, 2013 1:11 AM GMT
Stop destroying threads, continue and I will personally start a campaign to get you banned.

Start your own thread to spout your medicated rubbish, SHOW RESPECT.
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:11 AM GMT
Drop dead
Report Greg_Gory February 16, 2013 1:12 AM GMT
Shocked
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:12 AM GMT
I am not getting bullied, he can go to hell
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:14 AM GMT
Peolpe talk about facts on a forum and this is not classed as pooh as Gandalf calls it.
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:18 AM GMT
I advised only one horse yesterday in a thread and mentioned it had a 33% chance and at 6.5 BSP

it was a great price early on, thecornishcockney.

hardly pooh as you call it but fair advice.
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 1:21 AM GMT
the "I dont usually post much these days but---" thread I wrote

bf_fananatic •  February 14, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
A nice value bet today would be the cornishcockney who is back up in trip and down in grade

and has a better chance than any other horse of taking the race (33% predicted strike rate) and

is currently 6.5 on Betfair exchange
    7:30 »             Pre SR%   
    Thecornishcockney            33% 
    Murcar            20%   
    Rysbrack            18% 
Report C.F.KANE February 16, 2013 8:31 AM GMT
As i thought, plenty pontificating ref the perfect betting models etc... but no one posting any PROOF that they are winners on here long term.

So sad the song.................
Report Facts February 16, 2013 9:42 AM GMT
MullahOmar     15 Feb 13 21:59 
Facts - You are the most ridiculously named poster on here, good luck if you are trying to be funny.

`1/3 shots ? - yes.You cannot win long term with these bets'.

`I bet 1 horse a day, very unlikely to be involved in a race with skulduggerry'.

LMAO




You laugh your a*rse off then - loser. I'll make money. hth
Report roadrunner46 February 16, 2013 12:44 PM GMT
it helps when you can better understand which 5/4 shots are value bets, then your making progress.
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 4:47 PM GMT
C.F.KANE •  February 16, 2013 8:31 AM GMT
As i thought, plenty pontificating ref the perfect betting models etc... but no one posting any PROOF that they are winners on here long term.

So sad the song.................


The stock market has a huge army of bright minds that make good profits every year but none appear in west end bars

to stand on tables and declare there successes, and i doubt this thread will encourage customers to open up

there business to those on the forum that have contempt for wiser strider's.
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 4:56 PM GMT
roadrunner46 •  February 16, 2013 12:44 PM GMT
it helps when you can better understand which 5/4 shots are value bets, then your making progress.


Well a 5/4 has to be exreamly well in to be considered profitable and a favorite that ran today at Lingfield

jumped of at 5/4 but it was a maiden race and both the first and second rated by my ratings app had only run once

and had very similar form. I placed the top rated in the AW comp as I havent got round to using oddschecker prices

to check the value of betting on horses that are actully going to be profitable.

The point is you have to use surveys and your interlect to decide if a 5/4 is so well in its a 66% chance or better

runner before you part with your cash and this particular horse at 45% Stike rate simply wasnt but the second rated

had a 25% chance and at 16/1 was the horse to back!

    1:10 »          Chance %   
    India's Song         45   
    Gambolling Den         24   
    Hamla         17   
Report bf_fananatic February 16, 2013 5:07 PM GMT
The prediction modeling that I am currently working on is going quite well in early tests and I would like

to show betfarians that are interested in finding profit that you can make profits time and time again on paper

in my case ok, but still profits and I want to be able to show say horses that are sub 4.0 in bsp and any proof

that should surface that you can find huge variance in horses chances that go off at similar short prices as its a very
interesting question to try and answer.
Report C.F.KANE February 16, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Mines a pint BF
Report Shanelee1966 February 16, 2013 9:17 PM GMT
You don`t half get some stick bf.
Report koikeeper February 16, 2013 9:27 PM GMT
The point is you have to use surveys and your interlect to decide if a 5/4 is so well in its a 66% chance or better

runner before you part with your cash


What load of Bull...
Report warhan February 16, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
If you fancied gambolling den u would of selected it and backed it,you did neither.You chose india's song because it was higher on ur ratings which i guess is the whole point of doing ratings but because gambolling den won u aftertime yet again to somehow justify how gambolling den was the bet
Report shaungoater February 16, 2013 11:34 PM GMT
It cannot be done
Report Greg_Gory February 16, 2013 11:37 PM GMT
bf_fananatic     16 Feb 13 01:21 
the "I dont usually post much these days but---" thread I wrote

bf_fananatic •  February 14, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
A nice value bet today would be the cornishcockney who is back up in trip and down in grade

and has a better chance than any other horse of taking the race (33% predicted strike rate) and

is currently 6.5 on Betfair exchange
    7:30 »             Pre SR%   
    Thecornishcockney            33% 
    Murcar            20%   
    Rysbrack            18%


even i'm getting lost off here Laugh
Report Greg_Gory February 16, 2013 11:38 PM GMT
come on now is it 66% or 33% Confused
Report bf_fananatic February 17, 2013 12:01 AM GMT
if you are considering backing a 66% chanced winner then you want around even money or better

33% chance was ideal at 6.5 for thecornishcockney which was available at the time of posting.

simplesHappy
Report bf_fananatic February 17, 2013 12:06 AM GMT
also I suspect that thecornishcockey had an even better chance than 33% as the main contender was a jumper bumper

winner and I dont rate particular race types in the form history at the moment.

pure speculation but the grand winning margin would indicate this factor
Report roadrunner46 February 17, 2013 12:33 AM GMT
first winner at lingfield wins at evens ,opens 4/5. that was a value bet im talking about, hillbilly boy
have you got a calculation of that horses chance today?
Report Roger De Bris February 17, 2013 2:19 AM GMT
bf fanatic destroys another thread. Bloke doesnt even bet ffs...king of the papertraders...
Report manxy February 17, 2013 2:23 AM GMT
atleast he wont go skint within a month or 2 of joining, like the majority do, then ponce around this forum talkin like they know it all.
Report thegiggilo February 17, 2013 2:58 AM GMT
Done mondays card yet roger!Cool
Report never give up February 17, 2013 3:57 AM GMT
theres one sure thing i can say is if u follow thegigglio on here u will make a living..........a genius he is...........his record is 2nd to none
Report thegiggilo February 17, 2013 4:10 AM GMT
Thanks mum.LoveBlush
Report chavman February 17, 2013 8:40 AM GMT
bf_fananatic 16 Feb 13 17:07 Joined: 17 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 10,761 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog
The prediction modeling that I am currently working on is going quite well in early tests and I would like

to show betfarians that are interested in finding profit that you can make profits time and time again on paper

in my case ok, but still profits and I want to be able to show say horses that are sub 4.0 in bsp and any proof

that should surface that you can find huge variance in horses chances that go off at similar short prices as its a very
interesting question to try and answer.

   WAC Laugh
Report EdwardWoowardWould February 17, 2013 9:19 AM GMT
bf_fananatic 17 Feb 13 00:06 Joined: 17 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 10,761 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog
The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user: bf_fananatic.
You can manage your blocked users list     here .

Why on earth doesn't everyone ban this loathsome c unt

BF_fukwhit ....if I poled the equivalent of the population of China not ONE would be interested in your fukkin jargon and pathetic boxes with numbers and names in

Have the decency to fukkk off and die please

PLEASE everyone block this w@nker as I have and he might disappear
Report TheNorfolkMafia February 17, 2013 9:26 AM GMT
I like him!

Love
Report Greg_Gory February 17, 2013 9:31 AM GMT
God loves a trier Laugh
Report EdwardWoowardWould February 17, 2013 9:35 AM GMT
I'd like to hang him by his bollox in the betfair butchers shop for a month so everyone visiting could punch him in his mush Laugh

By miles the most irritating w@nker to ever grace this place hence I had to block him

It was that or getting my butler to track him down and release the hounds on him Shocked
Report chavman February 17, 2013 9:58 AM GMT
Edward i very much like your approach.i think you might be on to something
Report stewarts rise February 17, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
C.F.KANE 15 Feb 13 20:49 
There are some idiots on here who "claim" to make a living from betting horses the day before on a regular basis.


My head shaking more than John Mcricks on acid Devil
Report stewarts rise February 17, 2013 10:07 AM GMT
thegiggilo 17 Feb 13 02:58 
Done mondays card yet roger!Cool

Seems that some forumites might disagree with each other!Shocked
Report harry callaghan February 17, 2013 10:28 AM GMT
jmat
15 Feb 13 12:51
Joined:
22 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: jmat's blog
i make a good living out of betfair supplemented with my disability livng allowance, housing benefit,income support and tax credits it can be done



Laugh
Report C.F.KANE February 17, 2013 11:34 AM GMT
All i am asking for is "PROOF" Stewarts, not claims of making profit on here, not much to ask is it ?

For what it is worth, here is my proof of what i make per 1/4, ime no millionaire nor have the wish to be but i tell no lies & make no false claims, btw the vast majority of my wage is earnt on course playing in running & i have no "followers" that i am aware of Laugh
Report C.F.KANE February 17, 2013 11:36 AM GMT
Betting Profit & Loss

**** ******** 17-Feb-2013 11:35

Period:

Last 3 HoursLast 6 HoursJust For TodayFrom YesterdayLast 7 daysLast 30 daysLast 3 Months

 



Download to Spreadsheet   


?







(relates to event settlement date)











(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)

to




(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)



















Darts: £1,144.13 | Football: £3,181.35 | Golf: £88.04 | Greyhound Racing: £955.78 | Horse Racing: £4,677.54 | Rugby Union: -£20.71 | Snooker: -£450.95 | Tennis: £987.22 Total P&L:  £10,562.40
Report miprixabloater February 17, 2013 11:40 AM GMT
C.F. how much premium charge do you approx. pay per week?  Must be a fair chunk.
Report Roger De Bris February 17, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
reviewing saturdays lingfield atm...please god there will be 1 or 2 treats for monday.....
Report hello :-) February 17, 2013 12:54 PM GMT
praise the lord
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