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Weight V Class
Weight V Class
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Replies: 54
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Not sure what happened there to cause the double post.
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My opinion is that a horse winning in a particular class against the same standard of animals is more likely to have more to give and the increase in weight is not as significant as the increase in class( ratings not just grade)
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Using a computer and working on the principle of lengths your question I had to tackle straight away
as you have to make allowances for class and weight of course. My findings are slightly different to the mainstream concepts in that I find that testing for the best settings to find more winners over thousands of races gives me the following results on the flat. 5 pound a length is correct but for 12 furlongs and not a mile so it would be less for any lesser distance such that for a sprint it might be much less of a problem with weight not effecting the result, thus many top weights win sprints and the handicap system has little effect. For class I take or add 2 lengths for drops and raises in class which seems alot but class makes more difference according to my research than does weight. |
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using logic ask yourself this question, why do you see more horses running at different weights but rarely do they
attempt a big drop in class of say 2 levels? Horses that do try taking on higher class racing espically over the sticks end up as tail end charlies on average and come up sometime 30 lengths or 150 pound out  |
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actually if it were say 24 furlongs then its 2 lengths for every 5 pound thus if a horse
was raised 2 levels of class it would be (4 lengths x 2 )= 8 lengths out on class plus what ever on weights . I adjust the class also on the 12 furlong principle and indeed the majority of thouroughbred breeding centres around middle distance bloodlines which is 12 furlongs. |
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Heres another clue to class poundage that I quickly conceived....
Fact one Flat offical marks start at say 50 and go all the way up to 140 plus for the fastest horses as we know thus the range is say 90 points of variation. Fact 2 We have 7 levels of class from sellers to group one racing, this gives us 6 levels of movement possible up or down. Fact 3 At 12 fulongs we get a length for every 5 pound of allowance or rating. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion 1 90 points of variation in class in officail ratings divided by 6 possible movements in level gives 90 diveded by 6 equals 15 points or 15 pound or 3 lengths per class move. Conclusion 2 Though we can estimate 3 lenghts per class drop this figure is a little bit big and in fairness the lowest marked horses will probably fail to win even a seller and the top marked horses like Frankel are unbeatable in any class, thus inline with my personal test a figure between 2 and 3 lenghts is more accurate for class drops and I personally set it to 2 lengths so as not to create too much variance in estimates. |
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The fact that the racing authorities have settled on a set of weights or penalties after years of studying the issue, shows that they think that the current penalties are doing their job.
If not surely they would increase them? A couple of decades or so ago it was decided by the jockey club and by some race rating compilers that the allowances that three year olds were receiving against the older horses was too generous - so they reduced them. These people know what they're doing. On occasions I've heard trainers mention how difficult it is to win a novice hurdle with a horse who's carrying a penalty. Note the number of novices that can only manage to win once in that grade, although there can be other reasons as well. ( There's a lot to think about there.) Allotting weight for lengths is obviously flawed, but how else can they do it? |
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Good point Dr Crippen, the biggest problem with weights is that horses all manage differently to carry
different weights and also when a horse is running at its highest weight, any extra weight has a much grosser effect than it would if it were on a lower weight. Also when horses are running on a genoriuesly low mark it doesnt always meann they have a bigger advantage as they probalbly might not even win without the weight of the jockey as they might not have the legs to win |
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Weight stops trains.
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so also can a few leaves
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Hahaha! CORRECT!
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also when a horse is running at its highest weight, any extra weight has a much grosser
effect than it would if it were on a lower weight. I certainly agree with that bf_fanatic. |
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No account of the logarithmic effect of weight carrying is ever mentioned officially
and it is treated as a linear measurement... In reference to individual horses limits and abilites its a case of how long is a piece of string but simple research teaches us that it is very difficult for horses to win at weights higher than it has placed or won at before thus it is certainly a major factor to consider. |
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Its a horses rating the trainer is most concerned with.
He can cherry pick the weight & opposition using the different class bands. |
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Natural body weight of the racehorse is of great importance,many are smaller and may struggle when near top of the weights,it is hoped one day we manage to have a natural weight printed on are form sheets,it is all relevant,we could see natural growth patterns, and with 2yrlds ofcourse punters with no visual view of the horse a guide too maturity. (beats any time mechanism with jockeys holdind up most of the while)
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