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Hi
I'm trying to work out if a horse steps up in class in a handicap what weight allowance should he recieve from the other horses in that class ,is there a chart for this ? . I'm reading Van Der Wheils book and no mention of this ?
thanks
P
I'm trying to work out if a horse steps up in class in a handicap what weight allowance should he recieve from the other horses in that class ,is there a chart for this ? . I'm reading Van Der Wheils book and no mention of this ?
thanks
P
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Put that book away.
Years out of date - and a work of fiction, promoted by the Letters page of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book... to sell copies of that publication, and the myth continued in perpetuity by the former Letters Editor of said publication - even into his long since retirement. The current Race Class numerations were NOT in place in those days .... - and his, and others, definitions of 'Class' are but only in the mind of the beholder. One persons pronouncement of a 'top Class horse' because it always finishes 2nd or 3rd in Group 2 or Group 3 races (albeit it at one-pace) ...... is another person's idea of a 'dodgepot', to be avoided at all costs for Punting purposes..... But the Trainer and Owner will think, and pronounce it as, a 'Class horse' - because they get the good 2nd and 3rd Place Prize-Monies ... whereas the Punter 'does his dough'. With regards to Handicap races .... Your question is unanswerable - Because the Handicapping methodology does NOT work like that |
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Forget about class for a minute. The weights carried are determined by each horse's official rating (or "handicap mark") with adjustments for age, sex, penalties and so on.
Now back to class. The class of a race depends on the ratings of the horses in it, and this is largely a factor of its entry conditions and prize money. So to answer your question, no allowance is given for a horse stepping up in class. VDW (iirc) used prize money to measure class of races. A more accurate measure would involve looking at the ratings of all of the runners in all of the races, which is clearly a lot of work, hence using prize money as an easy class marker. An even easier one now, which was not available in VDW's day, is the official BHA race class. |
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be wary of class mr-man, the top-rated horse in a class 3 (for example) will not necessarily have a better OR than the top-rated horse in a class 4.
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thanks guys for your advice , still think VDW was a master at picking winners ... 29 winners out of 32 races !!!!
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Surely as a general rule, the higher the prize money the stronger the form?
I'm trying to work out if a horse steps up in class in a handicap what weight allowance should he recieve from the other horses in that class What if they are all stepping up in class? |
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The mistake here is that people are trying to find winners purely using ratings.
If you want to learn what to look for when trying to find winners, you have to start somewhere, and VDW gave out plenty of pointers. They're there all right, particularly in his later articles and who ever wrote them knew their stuff. What the knockers of VDW rarely do is submit anything of value themselves. |
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over 600 pages on this subject here
http://uk-betting-tips.co.uk/showthread. php/10415-Van-der-Wheil |
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Flat
5f: 3lbs per length 6f: 2.5lbs per length 7f-8f: 2lbs per length 9-10f: 1.75lbs per length 11-13f: 1.5lbs per length 14f: 1.25lbs per length 15f+: 1lb per length Jump 1lb per length is used in most instances except over very long distances or on very testing ground. Hope this helps! |
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^ NO - It WON'T
An AWFUL scale. |
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Without collateral form you may choose to use between 2-3 lenths per class with use of above chart. i use 3 lenths for a guide only.
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onlooker
 This is official! |
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There is also the theory that weight cannot be factored in a as a significant variable in the calculation of race horse velocity.
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Weight has got to matter, the racing authorities have been at it long enough to know what they're doing by now regarding that. The whole racing structure revolves around weight.
Nevertheless I believe trainers fear a rise in class for their horses more than them giving weight away in their own grade. Weight can be overcome, but it's not so easy to win in a higher grade. |
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re: Weight has got to matter, the racing authorities have been at it long enough to know what they're doing by now regarding that. The whole racing structure revolves around weight.
Nevertheless I believe trainers fear a rise in class for their horses more than them giving weight away in their own grade. well said Dr Crippen. It's not as simple as +/- weight, in hcaps it's about +/- relative to the weight carried by the rest of the runners... (not forgetting OR changes)... and that's where the hard work starts . |
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the importante of weigt carried in horseracing is vastly overstated in my opinion
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Tell that to Luca!
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Weight matters. This was proved by Sir Isaac Newton. HTH.
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class outweighs weight,the balance of the time imo, every horse judged according to the variables of form.
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re: class outweighs weight,the balance of the time imo, every horse judged according to the variables of form.
Does it though RR46? You can have two previous races a class apart where the top-rated horse in those races may well have the same OR. If the horses you're comparing today ran in those races but one carried top-weight and the other bottom-weight... class certainly doesn't outweigh weight in that case. |
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you just confused yourself,surely if they have the same rating, then carrying the same weight.
thought it was weight v class, just answered his post.goodluck works for me. |
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no rr46, not confused, because the bottom-weight/OR could be only one lower than the top-rated OR, or -20 lower (no limit if you're looking at long handicaps).
That's why hcaps are so difficult - because even the -20 OR horse, could in theory, be the second top-rated horse in the race. I admit it's unlikely, but it's not impossible. |
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yes yeayeawhatever
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example of where weight comes into play
9-Jan-2013, Ludlow, 1:20 Horses: o'callaghan last shot LTO they ran in same race and finished 2nd & 3rd (only a nk apart though). Same OR today, no claims this time or LTO, but today they finish 2nd and 5th.... |
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I never claimed weight doesnt matter,just said class outweighs weight in the big picture,
talking about 20 runner fields at the big meetings, then you get 3year olds with low weights who are open to improvement thus outperforming their mark. every race has its on variables, that's mainly the horses running.nobody knows how well a horse will perform,all you got is the formbook and your judgement. |
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yeahyeahwhatever sometimes it goes like that and sometimes it goes the other way, a lot of other variables are way more important than weight carried
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k02: I know the result went against the odds (6.5 did better than 3.75F), but I thought it should have worked out as it did.
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take real Madrid they thrashed valencia tonight,now they play again at the same venue in 3 days time
against the same opponents,in your opinion will they beat them again ? |
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Footy Forum ...... < to your Left
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re:take real Madrid they thrashed valencia tonight,now they play again at the same venue in 3 days time
against the same opponents,in your opinion will they beat them again ? well, I don't do football - but I'll have a bash  - if you can answer the following:Is it the same type of match (friendly, non-friendly etc)? Have there been any injuries? Are the teams exactly the same? Is the going the same? *** Were all the goals scored in the "proper" way and not through extraTime/penalties/people falling over/being in the wrong corner/ownGoals etc? if the answers are yes - then I would expect the same result *** ha ha |
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got yourself a bet then. goodluck
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In reply to Dr Crippen:
In a laboratory conditions weight will play it's part, however in the environment of racing a few pounds is not a real significant factor in changing the out come of a race. Nor is process of assigning lbs to lengths an accurate measurement, as the impact will vary significantly from one horse to the next. More importantly, the industry is more obsessed with what the animal carries, than what the horse weights. |
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Is a 6lb rise going to stop a horse weighing 1,400 pounds running the same performance on Friday as it did on the previous Tuesday if it is in the exact same condition?
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it never is the same condition, there are no two races the same.
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Of course that`s true Front- runner
But if the horse was in the same condition does the extra 6lb actually effect it`s performance? If you ran the same race again against the same horses it had beaten 2L and put another 6lb on to the horse. Would you expect the 6lb to make a difference to the result if the horse was in the same fettle? |
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Does the 6lb affect performance? Take three bags of sugar to the next grand prix and ask Lewis Hamilton if he'd mind sticking them in his car.
He'd refuse of course, because the F1 teams have measured precisely how much a car is slowed by every ounce of petrol. Weight counts. Other things matter too, but that does not mean weight has no effect. |
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Does the 6lb affect performance? Take three bags of sugar to the next grand prix and ask Lewis Hamilton if he'd mind sticking them in his car.
He'd refuse of course, because the F1 teams have measured precisely how much a car is slowed by every ounce of petrol. Weight counts. Other things matter too, but that does not mean weight has no effect. |
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Yes in hypothetical terms if the identical conditions could be replicated, the weight will have an impact. But range of impact varies massively from one horse to the next, that is, no two horses are identical. So to assign a universal value to weight for all is mathematically and scientifically flawed.
In practical day to day application for the prediction of race results, the loss or gain of a few pounds is an underlay in my book !  |
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Yes in hypothetical terms if the identical conditions could be replicated, the weight will have an impact. But range of impact varies massively from one horse to the next, that is, no two horses are identical. So to assign a universal value to weight for all is mathematically and scientifically flawed.
In practical day to day application for the prediction of race results, the loss or gain of a few pounds is an underlay in my book ! |