for the new year(3) with a twist.....

If I were you Rob,I'd find the time. You're potentially missing out on a regular income.

Probably had enough of being questioned by him ^

Result day 173.

1.00p E.W. L15 returns   0.00p

Profit / Loss           -30.00p

Total                    803.15p

Bet day 311.    1.00p E.W. Lucky 15

Swiftly Done 13.50 Doncaster 14-1
Eton Rifles 14.25 Doncaster 5-1
Twelve Strings 15.35 Doncaster 20-1 (5places)
Four Winds 16.05 Doncaster 6-1

All ¼ odds BOG, 2 x odds 1 winner……

Well through one thing or another it’s been a case of long time no here from me, and prioritizing my time personally took me away from the forum, this thread and the competition threads.  Firstly I’d like to apologies to the punts for just disappearing with out a trace, and to Ryanwee for failing to see out the MANL series, as through one thing or another I did not get around to offering my apologies back then.  My time is still very tight, but I’m now in a position where I will solely be  having a crack at finishing the Lucky 15 thread I started(possibly  Saturday / weekends only), and if I don’t double the bank then at least try and consolidate the reasonable chunk of  black it’s currently in.

I suppose the biggest handicap of the day is as good as starting point as any, and I don’t know about you but I narrowed the November handicap down to about 20. Saying that after much deliberation I did manage to skittle the race down to a few 4yrolds in the form of Swynmor, Nicholascopernicus and Twelve Strings. It is the latter I’m pinning my hopes on, with his latest win picking up a penalty that undoubtedly made sure of his participation today.  That latest race was only a class 4 over 14F,  which does temper enthusiasm some what in relation to winning a November handicap,  but after being anchored at the rear came through under a hand ride to win with any amount in hand, looking like Ellison could  have brought things to the boil perfectly for today’s race. Admittedly today’s test will be a totally different kettle of fish, but saying that I can’t help thinking the solid gallop which he will get over this trip on the ground should be right up his street, as would it with the other couple aforementioned beasts. The yard look to be in reasonable heart, and without hitting the winners the yards horses are running consistently well at present, and snapping Chris Hayes up for the ride this afternoon makes it all the more interesting regarding the chances of Twelve Strings.

The 13.50 on the same card is equally as competitive, but after going through the runners and riders have concluded Swiftly Done must have a cracking chance providing he can get a position in the race early. The key to this horse’s chance lies definitely underfoot, with a soft surface a must for optimum performance. His last couple of efforts on soft ground have been better than the bare result, notably Lto over a mile at Newmarket. That day the horse seemed to be unlucky in the fact that almost the entire field after racing a few furlongs made a bee line for the rail he was handy and hard up against. First impressions of the race alluded to no case to answer in terms of a hard luck story, however he had no real space to get into his stride for the majority of the final few furlongs only having one horse or another to run in behind. He did get daylight late in the day, but as is his style ran on at the one pace, finishing with plenty of running left in the tank. Today’s mark with the 3lb allowance entitles him to get competitive, with the horses last 7 runs on soft ground with marks ranging between 85-90 producing  a form line of 2-1-1-1-4-6-4, many in  big field handicaps. The lad on board has certainly made progress this season in terms of his ability, and keeps the partnership in tact , with the race looking certain to be ran at a good clip he could be grinding it out at the finish given a clear uninterrupted passage.

My next selection is uncharacteristically for me in a non handicap, but at his “bet to nothing” price Eaton Rifles makes plenty of place appeal, and could help the bet on in some shape or form, especially with the ¼ odds concession B365 are offering. He is another who seems to excel with plenty of dig underfoot, with most of his notable successes coming in the mud. For me another notable thing regarding this lad’s chance is the time of year, and for me he is most definitely an autumn performer. Throughout his long and fairly distinguished career from September through November he has posted lifetime form figures of 2-1-3-1-6-2-2-2-3-2-1-4-3-1-1-2.  On his seasonal debut in October he belied his years, and looked as good as ever when narrowly failing to hold on to the in form Steps, and that should have brought him on a bundle considering the trip would have been a sharp as he would have liked it. This track suits him very well, and providing the draw is not too much of an inconvenience should be very much up to being involved in the finish.

Now onto the lucky last, and I rely on a horse that can count himself very unlucky not to have made the podium Lto, which I would probably put down to the ride. That horse being Four Winds, who undeniably had the potential to be very smart, prior to injury which kept him off track for 4 year.  Imo he was a horse rated in the region of 105-110 without reaching the ceiling of his ability, but now has found himself contesting claimers with his mark a shadow of what it could have potentially been. In the grand scheme of things and the context of this race 73 looks fair, even more so if you consider his poor handling Lto. That day he was swinging along for what seemed an age in behind horses that were under the pump and tiring, with Shane Kelly in no great hurry to extricate Four Winds out of the pocket he was in. In truth he finished a never nearer 6th, without ever really having a race, but he did look at ease on the surface which had plenty of cut in it. The race looks sure to be set up nicely for his style of running, with so many prominent racers in the field it’s surely going to set up for a closer, with this horse Imo fitting the bill.

^^^^^Guesser!^^^^^

Goodness me Robs.....what coffee do you have in the morning

I read, War and Peace, quicker!

Reading War & Peace won’t win you any money tho will it, not saying reading this will but it might…  Nice to see you still have that sense of humor Norfolk

A PROPER POSTER..................has returned

         G.L. Rob

therobster27,

Good Luck, always!

Good to see you back Rob
All the best today

Good luck Rob.

Nice to see you back Robster. All the best today :)

Bet for day 317. 1.00 E.W. L15 @ Cheltenham with B365

Mr Moss 13.05 16-1
Sew On Target 13.35 11-1
Whisper 14.40 8-1
Diamond Harry 15.15 8-1

write up to follow......

GLM8...............

Tomorrow’s card at Cheltenham most definitely wets the appetite for Saturday, and having perused the card have decided to have a small investment, with the aforementioned horses making various appeal….. and here’s why…..

         The first event on the card pretty much looks a race that is Standing Ovations to loose, who has improved out of all recognition throughout the autumn thus far. It’s plain for all to see that the 7lb penalty incurred for winning his last race should not trouble him in his 5 timer bid, but more the combination of new jockey, never running well left handed, stiff track and 6th run in only 54 days may collectively conspire against his cause, and could just be worth apposing him at his prohibited odds of 6-4 ish. 
         With such a hot pot being in the race it makes a nice shape for the E.W. punter to get involved, and at his nice double figured price of 16-1 I thought Mr  Moss could give his supporters a decent spin for their hard earned. He started his campaign off recently with a spin over hurdles, over a very inadequate test at that. He did travel comfortably for the vast majority that day, Imo looking very much out of place over timber. Despite this he still held every chance on the run to the final flight, but as you would expect found lacking the turn of foot in the closing stages, with Paul Moloney sparing him a hard race with his next assignment in mind. After starting off in a novice hurdle last season ran a couple of good races Nto, being no match for a couple of extremely well handicapped individuals in Wyck Hill & Fill The Power, then bumped into another that had become well treated in the shape of Quentin Collonges in the Grimthorpe. The jury’s out on whether the track will suit, having been a rag when trying to give weight to a well assembled field of novice chasers, but trip and ground should be fine. For an 8yrold he has very low mileage and may still have improvement left in the locker.  I personally have him around  10-1 shot, and take out the fav Imo he’d be about 11-2, so in my eyes at his price makes nice E.W. appeal.

    Like Mr Moss, Sew On Target is another that has made a pleasing reappearance, and apart from mullering the 2nd he put in a decent round of fencing over 20F on course Lto, looking like the race was very much needed. That day he possibly bumped into a couple of reasonably handicapped animals in Johns Spirit & Astracad, with the latter only finding one too good in a grade 2 contest recently, and the former a warm order for tomorrows main event.  Coming back in trip could well prove to be in his favour, as could the extra forecast juice in the ground. As far as the principles in the betting go he has pieces of form this time last year that could account for Anay Turge, and therefore at the weights through a line through that horse East Lake, and also looks to hold Renard at the weights on his latest run. It’s all of course hypothetical,  will it work out in reality?  who knows, but think any double figured price for Sew On Target to big regardless of how it pans out tomorrow.

The next on the card is possibly my strongest fancy, and Whisper looks a second season novice to keep very much on side judging on his penultimate one.  Nicky Henderson has obviously thought a lot of this fellow from day one, pitching him in at decent level on his second start as a novice over tomorrows C/D, and who would have predicted the form that has transpired from that race. He did keep reasonable company for the majority of last season, signing off with a nice win, putting the well thought of Valdez firmly in his place, along with the disappointing Puffin Billy. Whisper may just be one of those horses that the yard bring on slowly, and I’m sure we’re nowhere near the bottom of his ability, with tomorrow’s class 3 handicap looking very much the proverbial spring board to bigger and better things.

Now on to the last leg of my bet, and I will be relying on a horse that has more than a little something to prove regarding his reputation, that horse being Diamond Harry. In his prime you could set your watch by a run when fresh, with a form line of 1-1-1-1-1-5, but more recently a PU. His mark very much reflects this horses decline, but because of the lack of form since August 2011 the conditions of the race tomorrow play in to his favour, so to speak. I’m not entirely certain how much this fellow will appreciate a cross country course, after the latest race he contested in France I’m hearing was very much a debacle. He has since been freshened up with a break, and the yard are at least in reasonable heart, showcasing this by getting a decent run out of the old rouge Alfie Spinner against what looked a well handicapped winner.

Result day 311.

1.00 E.W. L15 1 winner  return   15.50

Profit / Loss                   -14.50


Total                           788.65p

Cheers, Robster. These kind of write-ups is what this forum needs. Good luck and hope they all win for you.

your starting bank was £500

so your up £288.65?

Bet Day 318.  1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, all BOG.


Tour Des Champs 13.50 Cheltenham 7-1
Nadi ya De La Vega 14.30 Cheltenham 11-1 (5places)
Cross Kennon 15.00 Cheltenham 20-1
Lightening Rod 15.15 Wetherby 12-1



          The bet starts off with the longest race of the day, and having backed more than a few of the field in my time (with plenty of success) It was very much a case of not letting my heart rule my head.  I’m prepared to take a chance with Tour Des Champs, who as a staying prospect is one of the few within the race that is still massively unexposed, and could be just the type to excel in these types of extreme tests.  He finished off last season with a decent performance in the Scottish National, a race that Godsmejudge turned into a procession, but Tour Des Champs showed some good battling qualities when staying on for 4th, with an abundance of hardy types being out pointed. His seasonal reappearance was the one I was most impressed with, and in keeping Balthazar King honest for the majority of the contest made sure there was no hiding place. Bradley will have caught the attentions of many in that race, coming from a long way off the pace to finish a never nearer 5th, but it was the way that Tour Des Champs after becoming outpaced at a crucial stage on the turn for home, he knuckled down again and was in the process of clearing away from those in behind him on the run for the line. He is even better off with Bradley because of that horse’s participation out of the weights, and also has a huge pull with Godsmejudge for the distance he was beaten in the previously mentioned SN. He looks handily weighted now stepping up in trip, and could be the one to beat.

          Now onto the big un, and although Nadi ya De La Vega did me a good turn in last years thread, she gets the nod again through circumstance. Although she has never won beyond this distance, she has never been asked to when fresh, and her exemplary record first time up now stands at 1-1-1-1.  Her record on course is only fair, but this looks the time of year to catch her, and the ground should be just about perfect. On the downside AP McCoy has not tried to do the weight, I’m not sure these days he simply can’t do this type of weight anymore, but I for one am pleased Nicky Henderson has given Andrew Tinkler the chance to ride a stable horse on a bigger stage. The mare has now dropped to a mark that she can compete off, and Imo looks set to play a part in some capacity at the business end.

        Now onto Cross Kennon, and at his price looked somewhat bigger than I for one was expecting. He now gets to race off a mark of 139, after being assessed to be a 154 horse, and not that long ago in the grand scheme of things. Apart from winning at Cheltenham he has ran with credit in the face of some stiff competition, those races being a couple of world hurdles, but today’s race is a much more suitable level both class and distance wise. He has ran 26F, racking up a form line of 1-1-1-2-2, two of the sequence being a win and a very close second from only two attempts in this very race. He warmed up for another crack at today’s race has he did last season, and has a tremendous record when having that initial run out of the way. He may have to give way to some younger legs in the line up, but with most of them not looking to my mind not up to it, couple that with the fact plenty more look to have longer term agendas this season, he could be value in a race he looks to have been targeted for once again.


          Now onto the last leg of the bet, it would be nice to think I could be sweating now (don’t hold ya breath), but at least in Lightening Rod I would be hopeful of a decent spin.  He is another that seems to run well after his initial outing, usually making significant improvement, and boasts a form line of 1-1-1-2-3 throughout his career. The 2nd  in that sequence was behind non other than Sprinter Sacre in a novice chase, and mixes his races well over both obstacles just fine. He looks adaptable to most ground and seems to like Wetherby as a venue, and with his regular pilot up could be involved off 125 all things considered.

Result day 317.

1.00 E.W. L 15  2 placed returns  19.00p

Profit / Loss                    -11.00p

Total                            777.65p


xmoneyx... now + 277.65p for the thread.

Good luck robster..splendid synopsis

Bet day 329. 1.00p E.W. L15 with B365 at Wolverhampton, all BOG.

Hasta La Vista 14.00 12-1
Flemish School 15.30 4-1
Living The Life 16.30 5-1
Rebel Force 17.00 8-1

write up to follow ......

g/l

Today’s card around the country looks, as you would expect on a cold damp Monday in November fairly mundane, there was 1 horse within the NH code that caught my eye last night at a price in the B365 feature race (Telissio 14-1), and although I did have a few quid E.W. at that advertised price I’ve Kept my L15 exclusively to the A.W. surface.

Today’s bet consists of, solid form, potential and even a leap of faith, and it’s that latter remark that brings me onto the opening selection Hasta La Vista, trained by Mark Johnston. I’m not really big on nurseries, but this horse is most intriguing now stepping back up in trip. She has took in a few middle distance maidens at the back end of summer / autumn already, and went off at huge odds in the latter couple, justifiably so.  She was brought back  markedly in trip  for her handicap and Southwell bow a couple of weeks ago, going off the 4-1 2nd favourite after steady support in the betting. The money that day never  looked likely to gain a return, having never had the legs early to get into the racing position her jockey obviously wanted,  instead was buffeted in behind runners from a very early stage. She was however given only a hand ride thereafter, and eased a fair way from home with no real chance of troubling the judge.  That was her fist attempt on the fibre sand, and may well not have taken to that particular surface, but now goes back markedly up in trip for her poly track debut. On all known form she has no right to be anywhere near the principles in the betting, but the suggestion is that the only way will be up in terms of the mark she currently possesses, and at least the yard are capable of dramatically improving these types of horses, dramatically being the operative word for this filly to have a say.

Now onto the 15.30 where Flemish School has solid form credentials to have her say in this.  With her last 6 runs providing a sequence of 3-3-3-2-2-2 you can see why that for the win players she would temper enthusiasm, but I’m not entirely certain she’s done much wrong.  She looks to have improved nicely with her racing, and looks a solid enough stayer within this grade. It’s her penultimate start over 14F on course that I liked the most as a piece of form in relation to this field, and when finishing  a clear second to impressive winner Great Fighter did so in a time that would entitle her to finish clear of this particular bunch. We all know that gauging the outcome of races on times alone can be fraught with danger, but the performance she put in that day on course over 14F was miles better (clock wise) than Alpine Mysteries & Aiyana’s recent efforts over the same. I’m also certain that stepping up further in trip will suit Flemish School more than her main market rivals, and if she can get a good pace to be taken into the race with, hopefully WTD can play her late on and grind her rivals down.

Now on to the next leg, where another filly has caught my eye, that horse being the in form Living The Life. I’d like to think there could be more to come form this filly before her next break, but may well have signaled lto she was coming to the end of current mini run of form. However I’m taking the view Ted Durcan got her lit up far too early, and gunned her to the lead doing a bit too much, as a consequence set it up nicely for a finisher, that horse being ultra impressive Ruwaiyan, but the selection now has a 9lb pull at the weights as a result, and Richard Kingscote now takes back over. She is possibly better suited to a poly surface than turf, and at Wolverhampton has a form line of 2-2-1-3 in her short career thus far, and to my mind hold solid place claims in this heat.

The last leg of the bet is very much based on potential , with  the suggestion being Rebel Force  has the potential to make improvement on a couple of different fronts, the change of stable, along with the change of surface to run on. I’m not entirely certain how strong the form is regarding the 4 maidens she has contested in Ireland (3 recently), but making her British debut off her current mark of 70 makes her just about the most intriguing horse of the day. She looks certain to appreciate a decent gallop, and looks all about staying if you look at those maidens, as well as the pedigree, with Dalakhani having reasonable success with his progeny on an A.W. surface. Joe Fanning is well drawn to pop her out and make use of that stamina, and could well be hard to pass at the business end if setting a decent pace.

plenty luck needed today xmoneyx, especially in the manner a couple have alarmingly drifted.

@least your b.o.g,horse doesn't know the price

Yes that's true, but fully expected Hasta La Vista to drift, but I'm not as concerned when a Johnston runner drifts as I would be with an Osborne runner, only time will tell

Bet for day 330. 1.00 E.W L15 at Southwell with B365, all BOG.

Uncle Brit 12.40  10-1
Only Ten Per Cent 13.10 7-2
Caramelita 15.10 14-1
Pearl Noir 15.40 14-1

write up along with P&L update to follow....

Southwell, as a punter you either love it or hate it, but I for one really like this A.W. venue, and  any punter that is  prepared to put the work in can more often than not gain an edge, with many races at the track revealing more in the form department than initially meets the eye.

It’s no real secret but having a proven performer on the fibre sand is a huge positive, with plenty usually running fairly consistently on the surface. Uncle Brit sort of falls into that category from a very small sample of runs at the venue, and has a C/D line of form in handicap’s reading 1-4-2-3 from marks ranging between 51 – 67. His current mark of 62 just about sums him up, but in the same token nothing else in the field looks to be ahead of their current mark either. He still looked to be in form Lto when not seeing 10F out in the mud at Nottingham in an amateur affair a couple of weeks ago, but certainly gets a mile very well. Despite the wide draw I personally think he has a better chance than his double figured pride suggests, especially if you consider him to the current market leader Uncle Dermot (half his price) who has never won back to back, never won on an A.W. surface, and binoculars were needed to spot him the only time he contested a race at the track.

In the 13.10 Only Ten Per Cent is another who has shown a decent liking for the surface, and is now a full 5lb below his last C/D win (albeit a while back). Lto at Kempton was involved in a little scrimmaging at a crucial stage of the race,  this happening  just before Richard Hughes was about to launch him for the winning line, and it’s fair to say had running left in the tank when sauntering home in behind that day. From a handicap perspective he looks, with the exception of Big Storm Coming, the best handicapped horse in the line up, but the jury out as to how effective the aforementioned animal is on this surface.

Now onto the penultimate race on the card, and I’ve plummeted for another John Jenkins runner that appears to have fell into the well handicapped bracket. She is another, although not prolific on the surface  certainly appreciates it, and has reasonable form on it in the context of this race. She is equally as effective over both 6 & 7F, and Lto looked still to be in form, having come for a look at the front at the distance in her recent Yarmouth race just faded out of things, loosing 3 places close home as a result of SDS not riding her out, and with the yard in reasonable heart could be in the mix when it matters.

In the last, despite running 1 lb wrong in the handicap Pearl Noir drops to his lowest ever BHA rating, just 51. This horse showed his first semblance of stringing some form together in his last couple of runs on this surface, and in particular Lto during an apprentice race over 7F. Although he did not receive the biggest help from the saddle that day, he stayed on nicely, looking like a decent ran 6 on the surface would be right up his street, and judging by the line up looks certain to get that good pace to finish off.

Result(s) day(s) 318 & 319 (not 329) ^^^above is for day 320 not 330


1.00 E.W L 15       1 place returns    6.00p

Profit / Loss                          -24.00p

1.00 E.W. L15 1winner 1 place  returns  16.40p

Profit / Loss                          -13.60p

Total                                  740.05p

Bet for day 321. 1.00p E.W. L 15 with B365, BOG.

Dormouse 12.50 Warwick 10-1
Pgyama Game 14.10 Hexham 10-1
Saddlers Mot 15.10 Hexham 4-1
Ice Buster 19.30 Kempton 14-1

write up + P&L for today to follow......

Really my bet revolves around the couple I like at Hexham, which is one of the courses that lies well and truly in the specialist track bracket, and a horse that consistently run’s well at this venue is similar to having an apprentices allowance, as the ability to handle these demanding contours is worth at least 5-7lb (Imo of course).

I will start with those horses, and in the 14.10 I think Pyjama Game could be in with a reasonable shout of performing a personal best. This horse made a pleasing start to the NH game when running consistently well in the four bumpers he took in early 2011, but subsequently disappointed over hurdles after that promising start. His first couple of chases weren’t all that much better towards the end of last season, but when making his debut at this venue off an all time career low mark of 80, attracted money all morning, afternoon and was smashed on course to boot, with Wilson Renwick coming up with a top draw ride to grind down a fair yard stick on track Almond Court, job well and truly done. He followed that up with a facile win at Sedgefield 10 days later, but then was found out off it’s revised mark a further 9 days later, the suspicion very much a case of going to the well too many times. He has subsequently won again at both venues, and Lto when upped in class ran a respectable race at Carlisle, even more so given the fact some form is developing from that run. Yes we have other multiple course winners in the line up, but I think this fellow is worth a crack at an extreme test, and given his liking for this unique venue he’s every chance of running a big race and taking a further step up the improvement ladder.

An hour later on course runs Saddlers Mot, and although she’s yet to win at the track she does look at ease here. She has a form line of 4-3-2-PU(seasonal reappearance)-4-2-2 from her 7 course runs. She also  seems adaptable as far as ground goes, but tomorrows Forecast underfoot conditions Imo suit her the best, and coming back in trip in them will should  suit just fine, with the now regular pilot John Dawson resuming the partnership in tomorrows heat, and considering the line up does look to represent a solid E.W. bet to nothing.

In the fist at Warwick Mrs A King has booked the services of one A P Mc Coy, who has a reasonable record for the yard when called upon. He has been booked for Dormouse over the season a fair few times, which yields a form line of  1-2-4-1-1-2-9. Dormouse has also a reasonable record in November with half of his career wins coming in November, and numerous other good runs. He also has a smashing record on track, with 3 wins and a 2nd from only 5 attempts. However the 19F trip appears the stumbling block, and very much the outside edge of his stamina reserves, but if he’s going to succeed over this trip, attempting it around Warwick in November with A P McCoy up is as good a time as any.

Now onto the last race of the bet, and indeed the day, and I’m hoping Ice Buster can break his Kempton Hoodoo, after going very close on a couple of occasions. His last 8 starts have been in better class of races than the one he contests tomorrow, and fits into this 0-85 event with nothing to spare. David Probert continues the recent association with this horse, and Imo rides Kempton as well as any of his weighing room colleagues, and if he gets this horse to settle early doors, could easily finish in the frame given his fair share of luck.

Bet for day 322. 1.00 E.W. L15 B365, BOG.

The Magic Bishop 13.30 MR 7-1
Foxcub 13.50 Wincanton 10-1
Free To Dream 14.05 MR 4-1
Nautilus 18.40 Kempton 7-1

Write up to follow later......

Tomorrow’s  bet starts off in the 13.30 at Market Rasen, where I believe Magic Bishop looks nicely weighted to go one better than he did on his seasonal bow 11 days ago. The last couple of seasons he’s always improved for the run, winning his next starts on each occasion off marks of 109 & 112 respectively. If anything his latest reappearance looked superior to his previous come back runs, and has a very workable mark of 107 to go to war with tomorrow. He seems adaptable as far as trip and ground goes, advertising this with wins over 21F on firm at Hexham, and 25F in the heavy at Carlisle on his second start back in those previous campaigns. Malcolm Jefferson looks to have his string in decent nick, and the man that’s riding most of them Brian Hughes is a man at the top of his game, and looks to give everything he sits on an ultra confident ride presently, and looks set for a bold show on Magic Bishop tomorrow.

Now over to Wincanton for their feature race of the day, and my idea of the winner is the Tom Symonds trained Foxcub, ridden by Dave Crosse. I’m fairly confident this horse should take tomorrows step up in trip just fine, as the forecast ground of good, g/soft in places.  This horses form seem to take off over the summer, and after a few months off came in October to resume progression in no uncertain terms in class 3 company. Last month at Cheltenham ran an excellent race, taking the hefty hike in the weights very well indeed, with the winner scoring again Nto, the runner up narrowly touched off by the well in Zafranagar recently, and Anay Turge among others also giving that form a decent boost. Tomorrow Dave Crosse takes over from Ben Poste, and the horse is sure to benefit from this stronger handling, and there’s more than a fair chance that Foxcub can keep his rise to prominence going.

Back over to Market Rasen for the third leg of the bet, and new connections of Free To Dream must have been thrilled with his recent 5th  place in a very well assembled hurdle at Cheltenham recently. That day he was ridden positively, and always in the van for the majority of the journey, tiring out of things very late in the day. He did keep reasonable company in his races in Ireland, with tomorrow race looking a fair bit easier than his latest ask at Cheltenham, despite this being a class2 affair. The yard has done reasonably well with horse at the venue over the years, and they obviously think 3 miles around here will suit, with the ground looking just about perfect.

Now onto the poly surface at Kempton to round off the bet, and as you would expect for this mile series it’s a well contested affair. However these types of races do seem to unearth some nice types that are bordering on list / G3 contests, and if like I expect Nautilus can make some natural improvement with his experience, he looks just the type that could be targeted at those mentioned types of races. When winning his first race and handicap back in August at Newmarket he created a very good impression, looking to be a cut above his mark. At first that did not appear to be the case when struggling to follow up under his penalty, and having to make his own running out battled Bohemian Rhapsody, but Quick Jack ghosted in on the blind flank giving Nautilus no time to respond. Quick Jack was well ahead of his mark, with the 3rd home far from disgraced in the November handicap. In his last couple of races he has still shown some immaturity, and practically threw the race away by failing to navigate the final turn at Lingfield in a decent heat. Tomorrow I’m certain going right will aid his cause, and he does look just the type that John Gosden will keep improving with his racing.

Results day(s) 320 & 321.

1.00 E.W. L15  1 winner 1 place  returns  44.95p

1.00 E.W. L15           2 placed returns  26.00p


Profit / Loss                            +10.95p

Total                                    751.00p

Foxcub

My fault probably, had Foxcub as a Placepot-banker. Had doubled up in the two previous legs and with 2 x 3 x 3 horses in the following races, I wonder how much that tumble costed

Free to Dream

UL Rob

therobster27 unlucky with Foxcub gl with the last one

It's a NR virgin

Just out of curiosity sigge did your other permed horses place??, sickner if so.

Bet for day 323. 1.00 E.W. L15 B365, BOG.

Summery Justice 3.15 Ascot 10-1
Population 3.50 Ascot 6-1
Meetings Man 17.10 Wolverhampton 4-1
Miguel Grau 19.10 Wolverhampton 6/4

write up + update to follow.....

The best bets on the Ascot card Imo come in the last couple of events, and in the 15.15 Summery Justice just about gets the nod in a trappy affair, yet despite the fact he arguably doesn’t look that particularly well handicapped he appears on a winnable mark, and his double figured price may just prove to be value. He will of course have to jump better than when last seen, but that was a far superior contest than his assignment tomorrow. I’m very much of the opinion that he’s a much happier horse going right handed, and he also looks to very much require an easy surface, or at least a one with some give in it to run his race. Form going right handed with the prefix soft in the described going reads 3-4-1-1-4-1-3, compare those statistics to going left or on ground without the soft prefix and you get … 9-PU-1-(18)-9-F. Given the right conditions he does go well fresh, and Imo Ascot may suit, and with the yard in reasonable heart presently it may be folly to ignore his chance.

The conclusion to the card see’s a fairly tight knit affair, and no doubt the form students would have began to make sense of this race starting with the improving novice from the Nicholls yard, and the course specialist Dunraven Storm. However I believe it could pay dividends to side with Population, who seems to have a very workable mark for tomorrows contest. He is another to a lesser extent that seems suited to a right handed track, having already shown a liking for Ascot in his bumpers, he shown good form at other right handed venues, and not so good going left(albeit in a couple of very warm events). Lto making his seasonal and handicap debut was a never nearer 3rd in that class 2 event, doing all of his best work in the closing stages, running on with purpose. He has kept more than fair company as a first season novice, and could be very nicely weighted with his pipe opener out the way, with Jack Quinlan able to alleviate an additional precious 3lbs.

A little later at Wolverhampton runs Meetings Man, and is another that looks handicapped to play a part.  Graham Lee now takes over from the claimer that rode him Lto, and looks certain to appreciate the stronger handling, and should be in the mix where it matters, given a decent pace to aim at.

The last leg is a bit of a damage limitation runner as regarding the bet, having not had a fancy for any other runner within tomorrow’s cards, and thought that Miguel Grau could well trade at odds on. Although 6-4 is not going to get you rich, it may help the bet along quite nicely, and form of his latest race appears strong given the level of the contest, with the winner following up, and others that were well beaten also lending support to the form. To me it looks as fairly straight forward job at hand, and he looks the main reason why Andréa Atzeni heads to Dunstall Park.

Result day 322.

1.00 E.W. L15  1winner + N/R returns 14.00p

Profit / Loss                        -16.00p

Total                                735.00p

robster: They sure did. But luckily the jolly in leg 4 and 6 placed, and I did not have either one of them. If both of them had lost out, then I would have been really sick.

Good luck to you today!

Bet day 324. 1.00 E.W. L15 at Haydock with  B365, BOG.

Chac Du Cadran 13.15 10-1
Edgardo Sol 13.50 16-1
Utopie Des Bordes 10-1
Noble Legend 12-1

write up to follow.......

Today I will be concentrating my bet around Haydock’s excellent card, taking in 4 of their last 5 races. I will be omitting the feature race of the day, it just looks a race to savor as a neutral, with the race looking very much the proverbial aperitif to Cheltenham in March.

Now onto the business of trying to get some much needed winners, and in Haydocks 13.15 you are going to need to stay, and stay very well to land this prize, and Chac Du Cadran did look a one to keep on side from some of his runs last season in these extreme test handicaps. One thing he does is handle bottomless ground, and today’s underfoot conditions are surely going to be extremely testing, and Haydock is a track that may well suit his front running style. This lad did come down making his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle recently, and although it was  still too far out to say what would have happened, he was still enjoying himself at the head of affairs full of running, only to be undone  by a very soft crumpling on landing type of fall. He is sure to have come on for that outing despite his premature departure, and if allowed to get into a nice rhythm at the head of affairs he will be an extremely tough nut to crack.


Now onto the next race, where Imo Edgardo Sol’s chances have been somewhat over looked by the bookmakers, but I believe a single figured price would truly reflect his chance. He seems to mix chasing with hurdling reasonably well, but Imo is not the most natural of chasers, and after putting in an error prone round of fencing on his come back run, quickly reverts to the smaller obstacles. I’m certain that run would have sharpened him up, and Nick Schofield was far from hard on him, coming from a very uncompromising position at the rear of the field, to be a never nearer 7th in a race that suited the prominent horses( 1st,2nd and 3rd for the majority of the race finished 1st , 2nd & 4th at the line). The ground will almost certainly suit, and has been on the whole a largely consistent performer during his career to date, especially after having his initial seasonal run, with Harry Derham getting some nice runs out of him within some well contested handicaps in the process.

The next race on the card is the big fixed brush hurdle event, with plenty looking to hold reasonable pre-race chances. It is an inmate of Nicky Henderson’s that I like, and I don’t believe we’ve seen the true colours of Utopie Des Bordes on theses shores just yet. She did pick up some very nice purses in France prior to finding her way into her current yard, and looks set to leave her seasonal reappearance well behind. Today’s ground will suit much better, as will the step up in trip, with Barry Geraghty taking over the handling from David Bass, and this mare will almost certainly benefit form a decent pace to sit in behind, which she will undoubtedly get in today’s race.

Now onto the lucky last, where Noble Legend could be primed for a bold show returning to a venue that looks to suit. He is another that is well suited to the underfoot conditions, and although he finished last of the 12 runners on his seasonal bow, he traveled well for an extremely long way helping to force the pace. He has work to do with Mac Aeda, but I think the step up to this type of trip is exactly what Noble Legend looks to need, with the potential to scale greater heights that Mac Aeda another consideration. You either love his style (is it really a style/) or not, but Andrew Thornton seems to get this horse to run well, and has had a good association with the yard over the years, with Caroline Bailey also looking to have more than her share of success at this venue over the years, with 6 winners from only 11 runners, and a whopping 36.50p level stake profit.

Bet for day 331. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365 all 1/4 odds

Tatenen 13.30 Newbury 40-1
Imperial Leader 13.50 Newbury 16-1
Mr Moss 14.40 Newcastle 12-1
Merry King 15.00 Newbury 11-1 (5places)

write up to follow.....

Your in my camp 3.50 ................G.L.M8

I’m surmising that’s the 13.50 mange ?

Tomorrow’s racing is for many a pointer to the festival, and I for one have been looking forward to At Fishers Cross & My Tent Or Yours making their seasonal reappearance since Aintree last season, and like busses two come along at once. Although I’m of the opinion backing odds on shots is the quickest way to the poor house, I will however  be relaxing that rule tomorrow, as I have indulged myself, going very much against the grain, in a modest double on the pair at their respective odds with B365 of 10-11 & 8-11 (9-4 the double). Imho, we could well possibly be looking at these horses being serious Cheltenham contenders, and I know that if that’s the case they may not be fully tuned to the minute, but if they are to be serious candidates for such races as the world hurdle & champion hurdle, they really do need to be winning their races tomorrow.

Now onto the much more speculative scene of attempting to get my thread on an upward curve, and hopefully the horses at their respective working man’s prices can all contribute to a profitable day?

Tomorrow’s 13.20 see’s the return of an old favourite of mine Tatenen, and although I’ve never won on the beast to date, he’s a horse that does posses the surprise factor, and Imo 40-1 is a ridiculous price considering the company he has kept. His best day’s may well be behind him, but on his mark of only 128 is he really a no hoper as the market would suggests? I’m of the opinion not, and regardless of how poor his seasonal reappearance record looks, it may well be very deceiving.  All of his seasonal bows to date have been class 1 affairs, bar the one year when it was a grade 2 novice chase, and now finds himself contesting an affair miles away in class than his usual. Last year’s seasonal bow was a race that he must have traded fairly short in running, looking to be tanking along at the head of affairs in a well assembled field, having plenty in trouble prior to going out like a light on the turn for home, yet still managing to out run his massive odds. He has dropped a very nice 16lbs since running in the national and Whitbread at the end of last season, races that were in truth miles out of his staying comfort zone. Tomorrows Fulke Walwyn trophy looks a race that is distance wise much more suitable, and as stated has his sights well and truly lowered in the class department, and in a very open race it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world to see him run well.

The next race at 13.50 see’s the return of Imperial Leader, and reading between the lines the stable do think he’s got the attributes that can elevate him to the top. The last few novice hurdles he’s ran in have worked out fairly well looking at those races on the whole, and always looked the type that one would hopefully excel to more than just a handicapper.  He does take in a handicap on his seasonal reappearance, and the vast majority of opponents look to be either on the decline, or thoroughly disappointing. Couple that with a couple coming back form lay off’s through injury and your initially ultra competitive handicap looks very dubious to say the least. As 16-1 shots go he must be one, if not thee least exposed in the field, and if the first time tongue tie has the desired effect with his breathing he has the untapped ability to make his double figured price look ridiculous.

My next selection is Mr Moss, and having backed him Lto I’m prepared to give him another chance, with Paul Moloney making the journey to Gosforth Park for this one and only ride. I may have been a little premature in siding with him Lto, as he may well be a horse than needs a few runs from a break to get fully tuned to racing pace, and via a process of elimination concluded his current price of 12-1 represented fair value in the face of the opposition. Mr Moss ain’t got that many miles on the clock, and seldom does Evan Williams send a runner up to this venue, like wise Paul Moloney comes to ride one, this in itself could be a significant pointer to the chances of Mr Moss, who may be primed for a big run.

Tomorrow’s renewal of the Hennessey is lacking in the class of some recent renewals, and I’d be amazed if there were a horse within the line up capable of winning a Gold Cup, like recent winner’s Bob’s Worth and the mighty Denman have been. It’s also a race where big weight carrying performances seem the norm, this down primarily to the ultra classy horses that generally contest this event, but my bet revolves around a light weight, but let’s hope just in the weight sense. Merry King went into my note book when beating all bar impressive winner Houblon Des Obeaux in his recent seasonal bow in the United House Gold cup.  On the evidence of that race he looks like he could still be harboring enough from the handicapper to give him every chance in tomorrow’s event, and due to AP’s riding commitments at Newcastle, Richie McLernon again gets a chance to show case his ability on the bigger stage as he tries to go back to back on big race Saturday.  Merry King Imo looks set to extract revenge on Houblon Des Obeaux, and uphold form with Triolo D’elane in last months United House Gold cup race, and looking at that race both he and the winner put in an impressive round of fencing as anything else in that particular line up. I personally thought Merry King look’s most likely to appreciate the extra yardage in tomorrows contest, having been unlucky to have bumped into the well regarded novice Rolling Aces and then hardy staying type Cannington Brook this time last season. Merry King finished his race off really nicely Lto, very much indicating there was petrol in the tank but not that extra gear to maximize it, and they don’t usually mess around in a Hennessey, and can see Merry King appearing on the scene at some point at the business end.

Result(s) days 323 & 324.

1.00 E.W L15                      1 place   return  4.50p
Profi / loss                                                  -25.50p


1.00 E.W. L15                    1 place   return    1.45p
Profit / Loss                                                 -28.55p


Total                                                           680.95p

booom rob 40/1

Wow what a price-Horse pi55ed up

please please  get a double


p.s thank you

VWD Rob

1 of mine.............I had him down as a R/H horse........VWD M8

great tip rob,well done.

good start ... gl

n1 g/l next two

merry king places.wd rob

unlucky Rob, that wud have been a nice double, hope merry king finishing 5th means you get a place double?

fancy merry king a bit for the welsh national,thought the ground would be a tad fast today.

well done

Yes thankfully Merry King squeezed in (5th) to salvage my day somewhat, feel a shade disappointed considering the 40-1 start I had, never the less it claws some back what I’ve recently lost and hopefully I can start  getting  a few consistently in the frame from here on in. Only gonna have a handful of stabs at doubling the bank (209.05p needed) between now and 31st Dec, so really needed to start making things count.

Result day 331.

1.00 E.W. L15  1 winner + 1 placed   returns  140.00p

Profit / Loss                                 +110.00p


Total                                          790.95p

40/1 start could of been mega

w/d

wd rob, just one more place would have more than doubled your return.

Defo, and very nearly went with Hey Big Spender in that 14.40 at Newcastle, having looked well handicapped and a decent record second time out, as well as in November... I'm still kicking myself

As they say in the trade, you hit the post, all the best Rob.

At the end of the day Rob............I do the E.W. treb £1 E.W.on my initial thoughts.................the machine tells me that I will win £1,200..........that marks yer card..................

Bet day 332. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.

Daymar Bay  13.00 Leicester 7-4
Nicene Crede 14.25 Carlisle 7-2
Dovils Date 14.35 Leicester 8-1
Amore Mio 15.00 Carlisle 5-2

Write up to follow……

It seems to be a feast or a famine as regards to top class NH racing within Britain during a weekend, and once again racing on a Sunday can be described as quotidian at best. However with a little time on my hands yesterday evening and early this morning I’ve managed to find a quartet to make up a L15, and although not as elaborate in price as yesterdays offering, hopefully collectively they can be just as effective in generating a little profit on the thread.

In the first race at Leicester I’m relying very much on a note book horse, and having looked to under perform in a couple of novice hurdles at the back of last season was given a mark of 102 to start his current campaign. The yard wasted no time in getting this lad over the bigger obstacles, yet where prepared to race 8lb wrong at the weights, which made me think the run could possibly be a nice “ahem” introductory ride. However some one in camp Lavelle must have had itchy fingers the previous evening to the race, and the fancy 14’s and 12’s a plenty with the firms that had priced up where hypothetically wiping their boards fairly rapidly as a gamble snowballed. It was even smashed off the boards on course, 5-1 into 7-2 in no time at all, and if Gavin Sheehan could have ridden that race again he wouldn’t have left the win money in the satchels. During that contest he rode a very patient race, trying to get this fellow jumping well above all else, and as they turned into the straight he still had plenty to do.  After jumping the 2nd last on his way to the final fence I was thinking will a horse race was eventually break out, but when this dawned on the jockey over the last it was all too late, and couldn’t quite real in the winner that he’d spotted 10 lengths before jumping the final fence, ½ a length the beaten distance at the line. He’s sure to come on a bundle for that run, and I’d be confident he’s still ahead, if not well ahead of his current mark, with his jockey getting his chance to amend that ill judged ride.

Now the first visit of two at Carlisle, and although plenty of horses have come in for support last night in this race, I just can’t get away from the chances of Nicene Creed, and with Paul Moloney having other commitments this horse will surely benefit from the Jason Maguire treatment. He has outran his odds of 20-1 twice this season, hitting the frame on each of those times, looking very much each run was moving him towards optimum fitness levels. Having personally though he is there I’m on, and firmly believe Carlisle’s 25F in the mud will be just up his street, and I personally thought if the run in to his latest contest was running up the Carlisle hill he’s have reeled in the winner, regardless of the distance he was beaten. The yard are in very good heart presently, and use Jason Maguire generally with good effect, and can visualize this lad grinding his rivals into submission on the excruciating run to the line.


Dovils Date has been eased a couple of point with B365 overnight, yet at 6-1 I thought him to be fair value, so very happy to have him on side at the 8’s this morning. He was nothing more than a fair handicapper on the level, reaching a BH rating of 72, but did have plenty of winning and placed form over 12F at around that mark. He made his way into the hands of Tim Vaughan at the back end of the summer last year, and new connections wasted no time in sending him on his jumping venture. He did making a very pleasing debut, and winning with plenty to spare at Musselburgh, yet it would be fair to say he did not look the most natural to the hurdling sphere. Connection’s then set their sights considerably higher  at grade 2 level for the triumph hurdle trial, running well but very much out of his depth, with a similar story to be told of his next run at Newbury prior to being put away. I’m not entirely certain whether the lengthy absence since then has been through injury, but comes back on what looks a workable mark of 120. I’m also of the opinion the ground during his last couple of engagements would not have suited, and now reverts back to a track fairly similar to that of Musselburgh, with a couple of nice long reasonably long straights to run at on much more suitable underfoot conditions. The stable can ready a one from a lay off, and if Dovils Date as ironed out those small irregularities with his jumping he could have plenty more to offer now going handicapping.

The last leg is back at Carlisle, and just like Nicene Creed I think Amore Mio will love the underfoot conditions on this ultra demanding course. Connections look to have placed him well considering the hike in weights, and have nothing to spare in this 0-105 contest.  Having been quietly fancied on his seasonal bow at Hexham he stayed on well enough without looking likely to win, Imo he looked to be hating the quicker underfoot conditions described as good, and I’m fairly sure he looked to change legs or loose his action as a result about 50yards are so from home. Lto Peter Buchanan made sure there would be no hiding place over an extended 3miles in the mud at Ayr and Extracted revenge on his Hexham victor. They had the race to themselves a long way out, and at one point Amore Mio looked like he was going to come off second best, but come the line was bounding away, in fact on the run to the line you’d have thought he’d just joined in.  The yard continues to tick along nicely, and if this horse sets the type of pace I’m expecting his rivals will undoubtedly know they’ve been in a race.

Bet day 337. 1.00 E.W. L 15 B365, BOG.

Ballincurrig  8-1 13.10 Sandown
Jolly Boys Outing 33-1 14.05 Exeter
Merrion Square 7-1 14.55 Sandown
Reverb 7-1  15.25 Sandown


Today’s bet starts off in the 13.10 at Sandown, and what looks a race that looks sure to throw up plenty of future winners,  with plenty looking highly likely to eclipse what they have achieved over hurdles to date, and theoretically some of the current marks within the field could be potentially very lenient.  Imo Ballincurrig falls into that category and stepping up in trip over fences looks set to make his latest hurdle mark of 113 look ridiculous. Having been recruited from the pointing sphere his future always looked likely to be mapped out over fences, and he does look physically equipped to take to these larger obstacles.  I know it’s very early days in Nick Skelton’s fledgling career as a trainer, but if what we’ve seen so far is the precedent for things to come, this horse could not have found itself in very good hands, with Gina Andrews keeping the association going with a horse she should know well.


Over at Exeter I simply can’t resist slipping Jolly Boys Outing onto the bet, and think his price of 33-1 even for a horse of his given ability to be way on the high side. Yes he’s got to put a few lackluster displays behind him from last season, and does not look obviously well handicapped, and having came down far too early on his seasonal comeback when given a patient ride has not shed any light on those statements. He is in here today having to run off a mark of 99, but it is worth noting that his lifetime best run when bumping into a very well handicapped animal, was actually on course over 31 ½ F in April 2012 off 108, on ground very similar to that forecast today. A shot in the dark he may be, but with only 9-09lbs to carry with the lads claim, it would not be the biggest shock in the world to see him figure.

In the 14.55 at Sandown Merrion Square looks the bet to me at 7-1, and having traveled very powerfully for an awful long way on his reappearance looks set to come on for that run. After traveling nicely onto the heels of the leaders looked to just lack match fitness, putting in a couple of tired jumps very late on, with Daryl Jacob accepting his chance a long, long way from home. There were plenty in and around him that day that have come out and ran some good races, and Imo Merrion Square looks set to carry that trend on. Having shown a liking for the track by winning last seasons Grand Military, this lightly raced type could have ideal conditions to improve that record, and in the grand scheme of thing could be very fairly treated in this line up.


Last but not least it’s the Nicky Henderson trained Reverb, who went into my note book on his latest start. The lad on board gave him an ultra confident ride, producing him nicely to sit in behind the principles approaching the last, but looked to bump into a very nice prospect in Going Concern. He now goes handicapping off a mark that looks very workable, and now has Barry Geraghty taking back over. It’s obviously a field with plenty of other unexposed and improving types, but at his price thought him to hold some value, and a decent run over this less demanding 17F on much better ground looks assured.


will update P&L later...

robster: Always a cracking good read. Good luck with your bets.

therobster27 unlucky not to land a couple today ....gl

Result(s) day 332 & 337.

1.00 E.W. L15 2placed  return   4.94p

1.00 E.W. L15 2placed  return  11.75p

Profit / Loss                - 43.41p

Total                          747.54p

Bet day 338. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.

Lady Kathleen  12.50 Sandown 14-1
Roberto Goldback 14.05 Aintree 16-1 (5places)
Frontier Spirit 15.15 Aintree 20-1
American Spin 15.35 Sandown 20-1

The bet starts off in the mare’s event at Sandown, and think Lady Kathleen at her double figured price could be primed to run a decent race. I’m sure her seasonal bow behind Scholastica would have pleased connections, with that rival looking to have had the advantage of going well fresh. Lady Kathleen is now double the price of that horse, and I’d be very much of the opinion she would be much closer today without the subsequent 9lb pull at the weights. When last seen running off this mark last season she bumped into a horse that was thriving, and continued to do so thereafter. I’m certain the better ground today will help, and coming back slightly in trip also looks a positive. The yard are at least in some form, and Lady Kathleen could well  have the race ran to suit, and if that last run has brought her on sufficiently she should be involved at the finish.

The 14.05 at Aintree has been for me, and I’m sure a few more form students out there a nightmare to assess, with my opinion changing numerous times during my analysis of the probables.  I’ve decided to go with a horse I liked Lto in Roberto Goldback, and think he looks set to give David Bass a decent spin. His comeback run was highly respectable, given a patient ride by Nico de Boinville he crept he crept quietly into the race, and although he was never in danger of winning he stayed on very pleasingly in the closing stages. Although Nicky Henderson is of the opinion this horse needs decent ground to show his best, I don’t whole heartedly agree, as he has some decent form in the book on a softer surface, and there should be no excuses on today’s described ground of Good/soft, good in places. He does jump these fences really well, and was set to complete the National (albeit in his own time) bar a soft unseating at the last. His second start back last year was off 11lbs higher in the Hennessey, and was in the process of running a very nice race, tanking along looking to be enjoying the occasion just in behind the speed before another cheap looking departure. This looks a more suitable test than the National, and with a clear round could well ghost into the contest as it falls apart in the closing stages.

The next leg of the bet is The Earl of Sefton, and with what looks a field short on experience over these unique obstacles,  I’ve went for the stable who usually have an idea of a type that will take to them.  It’s arguable that Frontier Spirit may want the ground a little more testing than he gets it today, but has been versatile enough to win and run some nice enough races on good ground. It’s anyone’s guess as to how well he will take to these fences, but at least he has the ability as a horse to find a leg, as displaying on his seasonal bow at Wetherby when jumping the 3rd. I’m sure that mistake would have had plenty of other horses on the floor, but to his credit Frontier Spirit virtually picked himself of the floor to put in an excellent round of jumping thereafter, staying on nicely enough without ever looking like playing a part in the finish. That good run at least bodes well for his second run, with a career form line second time out of 2-2-1-2, and this trip looks ideal, and his form in the month of December also reads well 2-1-2-2-1. All things considered 20-1 could be on the high side.

The last leg of the bet is filled with another who is very much in the “taken on trust” bracket, but is another at his price is just about worth taking a risk on. Having only 3 chase starts to date he’s hardly an ideal candidate to be considered for a London National, but the couple of beginners chases he took in during May this year you could have been forgiven if you’d thought he was a seasoned campaigner in this sphere, putting in a decent display of some excellent fencing on each occasion.  It’s no surprise really that the most  extreme test out of his trio of chases so far has brought the best out in him, as his half decent hurdling form would also have suggested. His latest start on Good firm ground over 17F can easily be forgiven, and although it was Towcester that sort of test was never going to play to his strengths. The handicapper has played his part in proceedings, and has given him some respite to the tune of 7lbs from his mark, which should at least enable him to get competitive. The first time cheek pieces go on for the marathon trip, and with the yard looking in decent heart this horse could run well at extremely rewarding odds now given this type of test.

Result day 338.

1.00 E.W. L15     no returns

Profit / Loss          -30.00p


Total                  717.54p

Bet day 339. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.

Phoenix Returns 13.25 Kelso 16-1
Bishops Heir 13.55 Kelso 9-1
Fredo 14.40 Warwick 3-1
Amatheyst Rose 15.25 Kelso 5-1

Write up to follow.....

Today’s bet starts off in Kelso’s 13.25, and off his current mark I think Alan Swinbank’s horse could well step forward now having his sights set lower in the class department. In contrast to his latest class 2 contest where he was the lowest rated, his trainer looks to maximize his chance with the slight slide in his mark, and goes into this class 4 race top rated. That said Lto at Bangor over 20F in soft ground Paddy Brennan looked quite comfortable sitting off the pace, and was just about to ask him into the contest before stumbling on landing 5 out, giving his jockey no real chance of a sit. He now returns to a much more familiar haunt in Kelso, where he shed his maiden tag under rules over 18f, beating an above average type in Maggio, albeit in receipt of plenty of weight. Being by Phoenix reach, and out of an Oscar mare the better ground he encounters today may aid his cause, and despite Alan Swinbank’s recent years at Kelso being not great strike rate wise, it’s worth noting it’s a course he’s had plenty success at previously with an overall strike rate just shy of 20%.

A half hour later on the card Bishop’s Heir goes to post for his contest, and he is another that could be reasonably well handicapped off his current mark, and reverts back to chasing after his initial reappearance over timber. That day he had to be ridden onto the bridle on a few occasions during the race, yet the further they went the more comfortable he looked, and finished off his race really strongly up the hill, and was eroding the deficit with each stride come the line to a horse that looked to be very much on the upgrade, with that run coming off the back of an 18 month lay off.  The lay off may have been by causing himself some damage  on good ground when last seen in this sphere on course, but prior to that run  his previous couple of chases were very good, beating Carrick Boy and finishing a close second to Merrigo. If he was coming into this race off the back of those spins he would be a 9-2 shot at best, but has at least shown his wellbeing to be sound with that decent spin over hurdles, and is worthy of a crack at this sort of trip, especially around here.

Down at Warwick Fredo returns to an extreme test, and hasn’t been in this sort of class (4) since his novice days. He’s ran reasonable in his last couple of spins in amateur events at Cheltenham, both of those races looking miles better than this contest. He is a horse that looks to need a few runs from his return, and had a couple of spins prior to finishing a decent second over C/D to Hey Big Spender a couple of seasons ago off a mark of 128. All of his best races have come between now and February, with plenty of decent efforts over this sort of trip, and the return to some better ground will suit him more than most.

Back up to Kelso, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Snuker look’s absolutely thrown in back over hurdles. Has he simply improved with age? Or has it been for the switch to the bigger obstacles? I’m in the latter camp. He may have something in hand of that hurdle mark, but  how many time have we seen 130+ rated chasers trying to capitalize on much lower hurdles mark to no avail, Imo too many.  Amethyst Rose looks to my eye (if you take Snukers mark literally) the 2nd best handicapped in the field, and when gambled on Lto at Hexham near the off, was done so as if defeat was out of the question, and indeed on this occasion the money was nicely placed . That was in a big field competitive handicap, and it was very much a case of if you want to hide a tree…. Put it in the woods, with this race looking not half as competitive as that one. Yes he has been lumbered with a hefty rise in the weights, but the manner of that victory against a fair yard stick on course was impressive, looking like he could have pulled out plenty more as he pulled away on the run to the line. Going up in trip on better ground(by Beneficial) could see this horse in an even better light, and take Snooker out of the betting equation, I’ve got this horse a 6-4 shot. The sneaky bet may well be Snuker & Amethysts against the field, 10-11 looks a reasonable poke all things considered.

Having scoured today’s racing yesterday evening and again this morning, I have only managed to find a couple, so will not be doing a lucky 15 bet. I have however had a small E.W. bet on both, plus an E.W. double. These will not be in any way included in my P&L for this thread, but since I had already wrote the two races up last night in the hope I'd find 2 more to accompany them this morning, I thought I would post anyway for your perusal.


I have backed Canadian Diamond in today’s 13.40 at Cheltenham at 14-1 with VCbet, and with everything in life when something looks to good to be true it usually is, horse racing tends to specialize in this hypothesis in spades. In theory he should comfortably account for Zagranagar on 9lbs better terms with the lads claim for ½ a length, and is double his victor price in the book Canadian Diamond has to record a personal best to feature at the finish, but his latest couple of efforts very much indicating additional improvement looks assured.  Both of his runs over this C/D have been encouraging, having still looked full of running when plenty looked beaten in a decent Novice handicap last November before a cheap unseating prior to turning in,  his penultimate run also served notice of his appreciation for the course. Imo that run is as good a piece of recent form on view in the line up, and although he looked to have things under control turning down the side of the course, he was no match for the decent change of pace from First In The Queue, but did stick on well up the hill, and had the rapidly improving Fox Cub well cooked back in third, with plenty of good form line subsequently transpiring from that race. His latest run is also throwing up some solid Nto form lines, and with James Banks claiming 5lbs and the decent ground I’m certain a big run is on the cards.

Onto the 15.15, where more than a few bring good recent form to the table, with plenty of those that do looking set to continue their rise in the handicap. It is however a horse that has not been dramatic in his improvement, and looks very much to be a slow burner in that respect. I have backed Destroyer Deployed at 16-1 with the same firm, and liked him on more than one occasion last season. Although sometimes he has appeared at first glance to under perform in a few of his races last season, on the whole  I thought he performed fairly consistently, a few of those being fiercely contested affairs. He looks adaptable as far as ground goes, but I’m fairly certain his trainer has been on record suggesting this horse needs better ground to give his running, which he should get this afternoon. He is another that seems to like the hustle and bustle of these well contested handicaps, especially at this venue. His form at Cheltenham is very sound indeed, having ran a stormer to finish second in a champion bumper, he’s also finished a respectable 3rd behind At Fishers Cross, and another good run when runner up to Big Easy in a huge field in April. Last season he bombed on his final run, as he did the previous one, but as a rule he performs well when fresh having won or been placed in his only 3 campaigns to date on his seasonal bow. Michael Byrne takes off a valuable 3lbs, which could prove crucial to this horse’s chance, and with a decent round of hurdling (can miss a one or two out) he should be involved, with his trainer showing a recent resurgence in form.

G.L. Rob...........Id allready bet the 1st one ...............on the 3.15 now...........

The 2nd 1 seemed to loose a Lenth at every jump......... wants long distance in the mud ?
No doubt could av sold it for a lump after the Chelt bumper

Bet day 355. 1.00 E.W. L15 with Betfred 3 x odds 1 winner.

Safran De Cotte 14.05 Haydock 7-1
Tinshu 14.35 Lingfield 10-1
Cedre Bleu 15.00 Ascot 5-1
Totalize 15.35 Ascot 9-1

All BOG, write up + update to follow.....

result day 339.

1.00 E.W. L15        returns   0.00p

Profit /Loss                  -30.00p

Total                         687.54p

Today’s Tommy Whittle at Haydock isn’t the greatest renewal I’ve ever seen, but is none the less a competitive affair, with a fair few looking to hold decent claims. Safran De Cotte is my idea of the winner, and the yard look to have taken their time with him in this sphere after announcing himself as a horse with great potential when outstaying Godsmejudge at Stratford over 23F in soft, with today’s market leader Emperors Choice beaten out of sight. Safran De Cotte should relish today’s test at Haydock a venue he acts on, and  looked to bump into a couple Lto on his seasonal bow that were in the improving bracket, that under his belt he should be competitive off this sort of mark. Jake Greenal1 has won on him 4 times from only 6 tries, and looks to get on really well with this fellow, and he also has a very respectable win strike rate for the yard, which is coming to the boil quite nicely in terms of winning form.

Now onto the decent listed race at Lingfield, where a few caught my eye in terms of a winning chance, and at her price I’ve decided to side with the mare Tinshu, who would not be far away at this venue with the race ran to suit. I can see why Hugh Taylor likes True To Form, after sitting at the back Lto in the race that was dominated by those that were setting the fractions, he fairly flew up the (usually unfavoured) rail to finish a never nearer 4th . Tinshu was also involved in that race, in fact finishing even stronger once her stride and stamina came into play finishing on this horses coat tails, and at the weight should finish infont of True To Form given a true pace to run at. She is well drawn today to sit handy and get covered up on the rail, and as stated will benefit from this being run at a decent pace, however the pace to the race is far from assured, but if Hayley Turner screws her loaf, she may well be in a position sitting handy to take advantage of this scenario, and like many holds decent place claims at the very least.

Now over to Ascot, and in the 15.00 Cedre Bleu looks to have all the credentials that entitles him to run well in this contest. The ground will be perfect, as is the track and trip. He ran as well as could be expected on his seasonal bow given the ground conditions, and with that under his belt he should be straight enough to do himself justice in today’s contest, and receives plenty of weight from his two market rivals, in the ground may well be the crucial factor between winning and loosing.

Now onto the lucky last, and I personally can’t get away from the chances of Totalize, despite the ultra competitive nature of the race. He has form in the book in this sphere that entitles him to be in the mix, and it’s always prevalent to take note when Brian Ellison gets a one fit on the flat prior to a big money handicap over hurdles, and is usually protecting a mark  he thinks it’s favourable when doing this. The ground looks set to play to his strengths, and being a 10F horse on the level this trip should be ideal. He has improved his flat mark in winning and running well in his warm up races to a crack at this, and the yard are at least among the winners recently, hopefully the form can continue with a good run from Totalize today.

Bet day 360. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, all BOG.

Downtown Boy 12.40 Sedgefield 6-1
Count Guido Deiro 14.50 Wincanton 14-1
Long Run 15.10 Kempton 10-1
Ourmanmassini 15.45 Kempton 20-1

write up to follow.....

Boxing day is at last upon us, and no doubt for some the few days break we’ve had from British racing may well have seemed like months. Today’s equestrian  fayre is as you would expect in a word is chaotic,  and having too much choice as a punter is not necessarily a good thing, especially when bar a few races over today’s cards the quality looks as per usually compromised.  Having perused most of the cards I found it fairly hard going to select my bet, maybe I’ve indulged into much Christmas festivities, or simply the magnitude of so much choice has simply bamboozled me, but have managed to find 4 all the same………

The easiest to include in my bet was Long Run, and sometimes you simply have to look outside the bare facts of racing to form an opinion. There is no real reason why he should finish in front of Cue Card, Dynast and Silviniaco Conti on their respective running Lto, so it’s obviously not form that’s influenced me in selecting Long Run. I’m a great believer in looking at historical form as well as present performances, and for this reason along with his double figured value have put him up.  He is not exactly past his best in relation to the current line up, but because he was so good from a very young age he seems to have been around for ages, and has only ever kept class 1 company for his 16 British starts, the vast majority of which being grade 1 also. How many of today’s line up can boast being placed twice and winning a Gold Cup form just 3 attempts? Or how many could boast that they would be on for a four timer in this race if it were not for the mighty Kauto Star’s intervention. He is yet to finish outside a runner up position going right handed from a very small sample, all of those races being class/Grade 1 contest’s with a form line of 1-1-1-2-1-2.  I’m not sure what the 1st time visor is set to achieve today, but if it does help him improve his track record in any shape or form, he’s got to be involved in some capacity today.

My next best so to speak is Ourmanmassini, who has hardly pulled up any trees in this sphere to date, but as a result his mark has been given a little respite from the assessor, and now steps back up significantly in trip to try and expose it. His last race at Leicester was not devoid in promise, in fact it was miles better than the bare result would suggest. The race was ran at a bit of a stop / start pace, and in no way looked to suit this horse, and I’m fairly sure Paddy Brennan was hoping for a strong gallop from start to finish to sit off, but did finish to good effect without troubling the three that had broken away a couple of furlongs out.  There have been some reasonable lines of form deriving from that race, and this is a horse that will definitely benefit from the first time head gear he sports today (cheek pieces), and with plenty of prominent types in today’s line up he may well get the race ran to suit.

The next one I like is Count Guido Deiro at Wincanton, and although he’s not an imposing type in stature for this game, he certainly is very athletic at his fences, and looks to have plenty of stamina a plenty in both sides of his pedigree. It was a little too far out to know Lto at Ascot if he would have been among the principles in the finish, but Adam Wedge was just nursing him onto the heels of the leaders before ploughing through the 13th, giving him no chance of a sit, still not having been asked any serious questions. I’m certain this greater emphasis on stamina is going to play to his strengths, and looks certain to leave is seasonal debut in this sphere well behind today.

The fist in the bet was my last to go on, and in truth was struggling to find anything to go with the other three, and a novice hurdle of all races to find a one goes against my grain in betting terms somewhat. Saying that Downtown Boy has got bits of form that entitles him to run a serious race in this line up, and has been really unlucky in the fact he looks to have bumped into a couple with serious potential in his latest 2 starts. The lad on board looked to get a decent run out of him on his penultimate start over today’s C/D in similar ground, and his 7lb claim will be very valuable today in terms of finishing in front of the short priced favourite, but in a race that lacks any strength he should be set for a podium finish of sorts.

G.L. rob agree ....LR

Thank you

w/d

Bet day 361. 1.00 E.W. L15 with Laddies (not BOG).


Mickie 14.00 Kempton 7-2
Clonbaban Lad 14.55 Leopardstown 25-1
On Trend 15.05 Kempton 14-1
Milord 15.40 Kempton 20-1

write up and P&L update to follow....

Result(s) day 355 & 360.

1.00 E.W. L15   returns   2.00p

1.00 E.W. L15   returns  45.52p

Profit / Loss            12.48p

Total                    675.06p

Today’s bet starts off in Kempton’s 14.00, and personally think Mickie has a very good chance of supplementing last months Newbury win. I did fancy her on a couple of occasions last season, one of those in a listed hurdle here over 21F on G/soft ground, but ran a very disappointing race. Up until that race she had been a model of consistency in her short career to date, and this season already she looks set to surpass her achievements of the last one.  She was making a very pleasing seasonal reappearance until unseating at the last at Cheltenham in October, and was plugging on very nicely from a long way out, off what looked like a solid enough pace that had been set by the front running Bygones Sovereign. Nto at Wincanton was a race that would never of suited her style, the modest pace set by As I Am was never going to suit, with the well positioned Highland Retreat taking advantage of a very handy ride by Noel Fehily, with the sprint for home a half mile out never giving Mickie a chance to be involved. Her latest start at Newbury was a winning one, with the pace looking generous from the drop of a flag, and there was indeed no hiding place at the end of that particular race. After being under pressure a long way out Mickie showed tremendous courage to even be involved never mind winning, and ran all the way to the line, galloping all into submission. Today’s ground will suit her even better, and although it may not be pretty I think she will grind this one out, a decent pace being very much the key.

Now over to Ireland for their big handicap of the day, the Paddy Power Chase. Every where I looked in this race I was seeing comments next to plenty of horses in regards to them being doubtful stayers at this trip, and looking at some form lines and history I am in agreement with plenty of those quotes. I have decided to tentatively side with Clonbanan Lad, who is one of those many yet to prove himself at this distance, but he has shown at least me enough to think he can.  He made a pleasing reappearance at Listowel, looking to be in need of that outing and tiring very late on behind a half decent prospect in Owega Star. In October he bettered that run when finishing third behind another one of Peter Fahy’s, that horse being Morning Assembly. His most recent start was again in behind that horse and Don Cossack, and while they were at it hammer and tongs a little way in front of him, he could be nursed home in third without really being given a hard race in that grade 2 contest, probably an ideal way to get warmed up and more experience for a crack at this. With a hard race Imo he could probably have finished within 8 lengths or so of that pair, and if either of those couple were in this today off 11-6 they would be a very warm order in the betting, with both those horses very likely to be in excess of 155 presently. Clonbanan Lad looks to be able to travel early in his contests, which is a massive plus in these big fields, but if he’s not involved at the finish it won’t be because of his mark, Imo 133 looks very workable, and the ground looking also in his favour.

The next leg of the bet is back at Kempton, and at his double figured odds of 14-1 it could be worth risking a chance that On Trend could return to some sort of form. The fact he has now dropped to 4lbs below his last winning mark may be significant, and the return to  a very testing surface is another huge positive. He did look a horse with the potential to make it up into the extreme staying ranks, but for whatever reason has not went on to reach any sort of level in those type of races, and now drops back to a more familiar 3 miles on a more conventional track.  I can see this being ran a very good gallop with American Spin likely to be setting decent fractions over this sort of trip, and a decent pace would be very much in On Trends best interests. On Trend’s has a very good 2nd to his name over C/D back in January off today’s mark, and has his chance in a wide open contest.

Staying at Kempton see’s Milord running for the last leg of the bet, and he is another that won’t mind the conditions today being by Monsun, and after a little help from the assessor along with Edward Cookson’s allowance his trainer drops him in class in a bid to shed his maiden tag under rules.  He is another that would love this to be ran at a decent clip, and at his price of 20-1 he was simply too big not to have him on the bet, and can see him staying on in the closing stages when the flat/ speed merchants have ran their race.

Bet day 362  1.00 E.W. L15 with B365 , BOG.

Little Jon 12.30 Chepstow 6-1
Pure Science 13.30 Chepstow 13-2
Tour Des Champs 14.35 Chepstow 20-1 (5place)
Frontier Spirit  15.10 Chepstow 18-1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3)


Today’s one of my favourite days in the racing calendar, It’s possibly because the Welsh National has always been good to me for winners and places over the years, and have always thought Chepstow in heavy ground at this time of year sorts the men out from the boys.

I’ve decided to stay at this venue for the entire bet, in fact I’ve be swayed in to sticking all of my eggs in one basket,  Nigel Twiston-Davies being the man with that proverbial  basket.

Little Jon goes in the 12.30, and was in truth put in the bet after finding I really liked his other 3 on the card, and Imo missing a winner by a trainer when you’ve got the rest of his runners on your bet is a cardinal sin. That said trying to make a case for him to run well was not really that hard, but running well doesn’t necessarily put food on the table so to speak. Deputy Dan looks to holds a very solid chance and I’m guessing he’s probably a horse presently somewhere between 125-130, with scope to be a nice horse in time. Little Jon looks a nice big type, and looks a typical unfurnished type that will grow into a nice horse, his future does look to lie over fences. In all of his races to date he has displayed immaturity, and looks to have exhausted plenty of energy in the early parts of his races pulling for his head. Today’s track and conditions Imo will suit him, as he looks to be all about galloping, and  if he can STD can save that petrol early he may give the two at the head of the market most to think about.

Pure Science goes to post for the 13.30, and now is sent handicapping of his mark of 123, not too bad considering he was 6th in last seasons champion bumper. He’s kept some very warm company in his first 2 novice hurdles this season, and his latest start in a lesser event was not devoid of promise. The one thing that will be in his favour will be today’s ease in the ground, as his knee action would suggest along with some of last seasons form, and stepping up in trip will also be welcomed. I’m sure he is a much better horse than he’s shown so far this season, and the demands of Chepstow in the conditions may well bring out the best in this young unexposed type.

The next egg in the basket is Tour Des Champs, friendless in the market he may be but I’ve been waiting for him to appear from the last time I backed him, and I see no reason why I shouldn’t be giving him another chance regardless of the drift. I’ve always thought this horse will relish an extreme type of test, and they don’t come more extremes as best part of 4 miles in bottomless ground at Chepstow. Tidal Bay’s participation means that plenty are running out of the handicap (including TDC 5lbs), but in this type of race Imo  it’s not a great hardship to be running a few pounds wrong, but the ability to handle the ground and relish the test would be far more of a concern. In that department I’ve none, and think he is a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve, and when push comes to shove (which it will) this chap seems to keep on finding that little bit more.

Frontier Spirit runs in the last leg of the bet, and is another I’d pinned my hopes (and cash) on Lto, but just never got involved in the Earl of Sefton during his latest contest. He has some very good form on soft and heavy ground, and this sort of trip on a testing tack in these conditions should play to his strengths very nicely indeed. Another reason to believe there could be a big run today is the time of the year, and boasts a form line for December over the seasons of 2-1-2-2-1- and being PU in his most recent run in that Earl Of Sefton. Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to be having plenty of winners and lots running well in this month, I’m personally hoping he can end it on an extreme high, hope being the operative word.

How did you finish on this last year, a slight profit showed in the end Rob? Best of luck for the upcoming year!