-Where does a newbie start?-

If you cant pick a winner, start laying them to lose.

No surer guarantee that your touch for picking winners will return.

What do you look for when you're trying to pick a winner?

Price, jockey, course form, decent handicap mark, stable etc.

course form and mark come into it alot for me.

i probably over think it when i see a jonjo or pipe horse and i can talk me out of backing it...

also think i read to much into claimers on to reduce weight!

probably dont go for enough shorties as i dont stake big enough!

how do most people asses a standard saturday race?

I was always taught that the ground was the most important thing to look at. That's usually my starting point; ruling out horses that have failed to act on the going and whacking a big star next to those who have won well on it. If a horse hasn't run on that particular ground before, I leave that as a neutral.

That's my starting point anyway.

I'm very much a novice too though. Have been punting 3 or 4 years seriously and there are blokes here that have being going 10 times longer. Plenty of info to be gained on here though if you ask the right people

In life you get what you expect. and as you say.you dont expect to win...that's what you got.

Negativity is a killer.

btw. The GOING is the most important factor. If its not won or run well on the same going....you're only guessing..the odds will be against you.

...I think like Y.................Big pots Saturday & propper horses set aside for them .........thats why the betting often helps.............they know

btw .Been reading form for almost 50 yrs.

also if you get a close up shot in the paddock etc. If you cant see the ribs,it's not fully fit.99% of the time.

A few always carry condition ( in humans they are called fat bar$tards)

to be fair if i ever go racing i'll allways try and walk the track pre racing.

probably need to do more work on learing about the going and ensuring i use acurate going descritions.

lost my disipline on staking amounts recently and got burnt as a result!

I like these threads on how people approach a race. Thought processes etc. Good to know how others think and pick up a few things here and there.

i try picking out what you see from the race card that might look odd or significantly different ie AP picking one horse over another from the same yard.

long lay offs into decent level of races...

multiple entries by one trainer.

anything that looks a bit odd

Supersam, give up now. You are up against 5% commission rate. Is that enough for you? You are up against pros with systems (btw they dont usually post on here). You up against insiders...they will rinse newbies like you.  Go find yourself a new hobby!

"Pros with systems"

ROFL

if a horse as won well on the going like you say,then it will be marked up to that rating(i.e it wont improve for the going)so a neutral horse as you say could well improve alot for trying new going - so i would say these have a better chance than proven ones(not always),also if only 1 or 2 bad runs on the going make sure theres no other excuse,dist,not fit,track etc etc wasnt the factor why it ran bad rather than the going,

dont work it out to the lb or length exactly,only front few try all the way to line those further back coast home once they re beat,so 20l loss can be reversed.

gl - theres no simple answer,look at the form after the race - what did you miss,

i believe in a horses natural dynamo, i look for form in the same 6 week period 2 or 3 years on the trot, not 2 fussed about its last race in mid n low grade hndicaps.

think thats more the trainers targetting certain races or time of year rather than the horse feeling fit

i believe a horses nervous energy/friskyness, run for time of year is down to breeding.

summer horse autumn winter sprng etc etc.

run for fun time of year is down to breeding.

Watch as much racing as you can and dont look at just the winner look at all the horses i think jumps is a lot better to study. flat for me everything happens to fast if i have a bet on the flat i just follow cooleddy on here lol.

My advice is firstly to forget about betting on Saturdays unless perhaps on the all weather....a truly difficult day to make a consistent profit.
Secondly specialise...suggest non handicap races particularly maidens and claimers
If backing maidens/claimers concentrate on first three in the betting
Don't bet if the ground is soft and certainly not if it's heavy

funnily enough I do well Saturdays

just a knack, experience or luck imo

if you watch RUK or ATR just take note of what is said

you get the general feel of it..

if anybody knows a way to certain riches they keep it to themselves(premium charge payers)

I dont

sounds as if you have a fair level of experience

find a way of betting that suits you

win singles best for me

and always bet within our means imo

gl

there is a lot of information to consider..you can take hours at it

but always some unknowns.....

I always look for value

so if you comfortable with your selection at price obtained

probably as much as we can do

other people on here know a lot more than me of course

I take the opposite approach to posy (only bet Saturdays or other high grade races and only over the jumps), which just goes to show there is no set rules about what racing to bet on, just whatever suits you better and what you know more about. Most important things to look at are: ability, ground, course, distance, pace of the race, jockey and trainer. The most important thing is to know your form. The more you watch each horse, the more you'll learn about it.

A fair catch but,better vbait is needed.

i used to scan down thru the cards, take in the shape of the race, scn the prices and move on, then o back to the races my subconcous went ping over, and do every horses history, i only ever had time to do 2 or 3 races

gl - theres no simple answer,look at the form after the race - what did you miss,

good advice comingupthehill

and about trainers as well

this game is as much as about reading trainers

as what their horses do

watch every race replay each day. Don't bet for 6 months, that way you won't sub consciously bias your opinions. Keep list and ideas, see how you go.

I started by going down the bookies after school, if trap 5 was a black dog then I reached for the clothing allowance.

There were some great tipsters on here over time. They had certs for nearly every race telling us to "lump on lump on". They are nearly all gone now thank god - I reckon their mammies took the lap-tops off them.

too clued up for a newbie to me, start by banning betfair's candy to a baby, ie the ability to win while you lose, how it was ever introduced still mystifies me?, and racing wanted to clean up its sport and then bring in a situation where you can win when you lose, a rocking horse could figure there was going to be hell to pay for any wannabe form study.

Transparent my ass!

Lower stakes until you get lucky... nothing to do with form etc it's just normal variation... like seeing Reds winning disproportionally one night at a roulette table.

supersam     02 Dec 12 19:00 
to be fair if i ever go racing i'll allways try and walk the track pre racing.
-----------------

You appear to have got your priorities a little wrong .... especially given your admitted stakes.

YOU are not riding in the races.

Half the time you will be wasting precious and valuable TIME  confirming the fairly obvious.

- and how can you, "walk, the OTHER track"s - that you are NOT at - but, could well, be ALSO betting at?

-------------------
Either that ^ - or your whole thread us a Fishing expedition.

Stop trying to pick winners,and start trying to find wrong prices.

I agree with Artie
But you can only see the wrong
prices when you know enough about
the type of races your betting in

Oh give over with that self-righteous MANTRA, artie

If people are not able to analyse, and assimilate FORM scientifically to find a few winners ...

Then how on earth can they, therefore, determine, "wrong prices."?

FORM study and evaluating PERFORMANCES - both Past and Potential - HAS to [b]come FIRST.

Your precious 'Prices' are THEN a subsequent consequence of that imperative INITIAL Modus Operandi.

* ^ scientifically - should read - SUFFICIENTLY.

I know nothing about form etc.,but I make long term profits.Form study not at all necessary to show profits.

Wrong prices OK, but how do you know that the price is wrong without form?
Checking that the nag looks well in the paddock compared to it looks last time it ran?
Inside info?

Purchased ratings.

this is getting way too technical for me

Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 7f Nursery     03-Dec-12 16:50     03-Dec-12 16:52    16.29
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 7f Nursery     03-Dec-12 16:30     03-Dec-12 16:34    0.00
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Hcap     03-Dec-12 16:20     03-Dec-12 16:25    11.89
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : To Be Placed     03-Dec-12 15:50     03-Dec-12 15:53    0.00
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Mdn Stks     03-Dec-12 15:50     03-Dec-12 15:52    19.18
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m2f NHF     03-Dec-12 15:40     03-Dec-12 15:46    3.41
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 2m Hcap     03-Dec-12 15:30     03-Dec-12 15:34    61.02
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Mdn Stks     03-Dec-12 15:20     03-Dec-12 15:23    1.80
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 3m2f Hcap Chs     03-Dec-12 15:10     03-Dec-12 15:18    28.44
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 1m1f Claim Stks     03-Dec-12 15:00     03-Dec-12 15:03    2.48
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 7f Claim Stks     03-Dec-12 14:50     03-Dec-12 14:52    6.39
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m Hcap Hrd     03-Dec-12 14:40     03-Dec-12 14:45    -1.96
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 5f Hcap     03-Dec-12 14:30     03-Dec-12 14:34    5.16
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m2f Hcap     03-Dec-12 14:20     03-Dec-12 14:23    -8.27
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m4f Hcap Chs     03-Dec-12 14:10     03-Dec-12 14:15    15.03
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 5f Hcap     03-Dec-12 13:55     03-Dec-12 13:57    -7.60
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 3m1f Hcap Hrd     03-Dec-12 13:40     03-Dec-12 13:52    32.18
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m4f Beg Chs     03-Dec-12 13:10     03-Dec-12 13:16    8.43
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : To Be Placed     03-Dec-12 12:40     03-Dec-12 12:46    137.95
Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m Nov Hrd     03-Dec-12 12:40     03-Dec-12 12:44    82.39
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

Good luck to you Artie
I tend to concentrate on the low grade
stuff.I dont think i could keep
in front  if i wasnt up to date
with the form

I'm very new to racing considering, only really into it for just under 2 years. I'm down on here, but up overall by a good amount thanks to a couple of big wins.

I personally try to get a field and simply whittle down as many horses who have plenty of negatives. Start with the going, then the distance, then the track (or performances on similar tracks). If I can't take a good chunk of the competitors out of my considerations this way then its probably not worth the effort. From there I have a look at things like trainer form, if the horse has been targeted at that race, and the price.

My biggest downfall is my discipline - I'm sure that I'm not the only one. I'm a bit of a nob with staking too, when I take the time to study a race properly and consider everything then I'll be sensible and do small stakes, but when I'm punting stupidly then I inevitably use bigger stakes and lose more. Doing things like keeping records, writing down a little list of staking rules and refraining from chasing or betting "for interest" has been a big help for me recently. But yeah, the most important thing for me is being able to take the majority of horses out of the running. If you can do that well then you've probably got a much smaller chance of being wrong, and, of course, if they're a short price you can get them layed.

Purchased ratings. I should have thought of that...

why dont you ask your advisers to post up their bets each day for a week- of course- no one will!

thanks for the info guys.

im going to start taking the approach of sticking to saturdays and the big weekends/festivals.

mainly as i'll get a slight increase in potetnal value. ie big fields better e/w terms

plus its more horse's i'll have seen run at least once before.

i dont understand how your ment to have a job and be able to keep up with racehorses just to much average to low end stuff!

oh and i have aquired a share in a willie mullins runner so i can focus on the fun that can be had trying to get my 20 quid on at 2-1!

OMG...This is a very sad thread!! You're all doomed.

not often i agree with artie but i completely agree that form is not relevant...the best ratings i know of are those on flatstats which from what i understand ignore form,but pittsburgh phil can confirm that.

Sam sure if you have a share in one with Willie you should clean up with all the info he'll give you. He is only starting to run the good ones now and he has plenty of them. Come March NH and PN wont know what hits them. Of course you could invite him along for a days fishing on some quiet Monday. You could suggest that he brings that Rich fellow along with him. They could give you all the info you need and you could teach them how to do a bit of good fishing as I imagine youre fairly good at it yourself.

Supersam

The fact that you bet on higher priced horses means that your definitely in the right place here on Betfair. You appear to have some good skills with regards to finding winners. You will carry on improving those skills over the years. Do not be disheartened by a losing spell. About thirty years ago, when I was a regular Saturday racegoer, I notched up twenty eight losing bets on the trot over the summer before finding a winner at Salisbury. The Relief! I've never forgotten that. 

For the past ten years I have been a full time Betfarian, the winners are out there. Proably 95% of my betting is done on Irish racing, I feel(know) that this gives me an edge over most. Anyway good luck for the future.

PS whats that Mullins horse you have a share in. I'll let you know what i think about the horse.

Form is not relevant,are you people for real!

jesus gig , even you get turned over by THEM , and if you do what chance do mortals have

The amount of horses that are non triers in comparison to their chances of winning is small,if it isn't then i must be very lucky as i probably get 1/2 rides a month i consider suspect virtually negligible it doesn't even bother me as the % is so small.There are plenty of other non triers but for me they're not trying because they're in the wrong races to begin with,so you have to assume an average punter with limited time to do form will always see more non triers in his eyes in their bets.If there were so many blatant non triers i'd have a nice long shopping list for future reference and thats just not the case,probably one or two a month.There's plenty of cheating in the races,butthey are rarely done with horses that were going to win anyway,personally i wish there more as it's so hard to find value on these cards most days.

Wise words from the forums best judge from within an oxygen tent.

fanks 4 that Giggsy ysfdc.

I have been trying to win money betting for 50 years and still failing but I lose a very small percentage these days-certainly less than the 5% commission. If you are new to Betfair, beware of the rapidly changing prices on here. I find it irritating to see a price fall by a full point in 30 seconds only to go back up by a point in the next 30 secs. A point difference on all your bets is the difference between profit and loss in a year. I suspect that it is the result of some bots operating behind the scenes but for a newcomer it is a real minefield. I suppose it depends on the sort of horse you select, but 90% of the winners that I back trade at more than SP in the early part of a race so I bet more and more just after the off if I am able to.