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Im a 24 year old racing lover who has been Punting the last 6 years or so.
recently i have struggled to pick a winner and have never had a spell of drought like this before!
im no pro and dont "expect" to win but what can you do? Take a break is my first idea or to just try and get my 10 quid on pricewise every saturday!
i love the game (esp national hunt) and like to think im a decent judge, (got lucky this flat season just gone and followed the Gosden horse Polygon to the cliff edge before it came it at 33'ss)
im a big fan of multiples and rarely go large on odd's on shots (big bucks asside every year)
should i try more form study?
or just try a dart in the paper?
recently i have struggled to pick a winner and have never had a spell of drought like this before!
im no pro and dont "expect" to win but what can you do? Take a break is my first idea or to just try and get my 10 quid on pricewise every saturday!
i love the game (esp national hunt) and like to think im a decent judge, (got lucky this flat season just gone and followed the Gosden horse Polygon to the cliff edge before it came it at 33'ss)
im a big fan of multiples and rarely go large on odd's on shots (big bucks asside every year)
should i try more form study?
or just try a dart in the paper?
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Replies: 53
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If you cant pick a winner, start laying them to lose.
No surer guarantee that your touch for picking winners will return. |
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What do you look for when you're trying to pick a winner?
Price, jockey, course form, decent handicap mark, stable etc. |
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course form and mark come into it alot for me.
i probably over think it when i see a jonjo or pipe horse and i can talk me out of backing it... also think i read to much into claimers on to reduce weight! probably dont go for enough shorties as i dont stake big enough! how do most people asses a standard saturday race? |
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I was always taught that the ground was the most important thing to look at. That's usually my starting point; ruling out horses that have failed to act on the going and whacking a big star next to those who have won well on it. If a horse hasn't run on that particular ground before, I leave that as a neutral.
That's my starting point anyway. I'm very much a novice too though. Have been punting 3 or 4 years seriously and there are blokes here that have being going 10 times longer. Plenty of info to be gained on here though if you ask the right people  |
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In life you get what you expect. and as you say.you dont expect to win...that's what you got.
Negativity is a killer. btw. The GOING is the most important factor. If its not won or run well on the same going....you're only guessing..the odds will be against you. |
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 ...I think like Y.................Big pots Saturday & propper horses set aside for them .........thats why the betting often helps.............they know |
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btw .Been reading form for almost 50 yrs.
also if you get a close up shot in the paddock etc. If you cant see the ribs,it's not fully fit.99% of the time. A few always carry condition ( in humans they are called fat bar$tards) |
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to be fair if i ever go racing i'll allways try and walk the track pre racing.
probably need to do more work on learing about the going and ensuring i use acurate going descritions. lost my disipline on staking amounts recently and got burnt as a result! |
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I like these threads on how people approach a race. Thought processes etc. Good to know how others think and pick up a few things here and there.
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i try picking out what you see from the race card that might look odd or significantly different ie AP picking one horse over another from the same yard.
long lay offs into decent level of races... multiple entries by one trainer. anything that looks a bit odd |
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Supersam, give up now. You are up against 5% commission rate. Is that enough for you? You are up against pros with systems (btw they dont usually post on here). You up against insiders...they will rinse newbies like you. Go find yourself a new hobby!
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"Pros with systems"
ROFL |
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if a horse as won well on the going like you say,then it will be marked up to that rating(i.e it wont improve for the going)so a neutral horse as you say could well improve alot for trying new going - so i would say these have a better chance than proven ones(not always),also if only 1 or 2 bad runs on the going make sure theres no other excuse,dist,not fit,track etc etc wasnt the factor why it ran bad rather than the going,
dont work it out to the lb or length exactly,only front few try all the way to line those further back coast home once they re beat,so 20l loss can be reversed. gl - theres no simple answer,look at the form after the race - what did you miss, |
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i believe in a horses natural dynamo, i look for form in the same 6 week period 2 or 3 years on the trot, not 2 fussed about its last race in mid n low grade hndicaps.
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think thats more the trainers targetting certain races or time of year rather than the horse feeling fit
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i believe a horses nervous energy/friskyness, run for time of year is down to breeding.
summer horse autumn winter sprng etc etc. |
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run for fun time of year is down to breeding.
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Watch as much racing as you can and dont look at just the winner look at all the horses i think jumps is a lot better to study. flat for me everything happens to fast if i have a bet on the flat i just follow cooleddy on here lol.
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My advice is firstly to forget about betting on Saturdays unless perhaps on the all weather....a truly difficult day to make a consistent profit.
Secondly specialise...suggest non handicap races particularly maidens and claimers If backing maidens/claimers concentrate on first three in the betting Don't bet if the ground is soft and certainly not if it's heavy |
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funnily enough I do well Saturdays
just a knack, experience or luck imo if you watch RUK or ATR just take note of what is said you get the general feel of it.. if anybody knows a way to certain riches they keep it to themselves(premium charge payers) I dont  sounds as if you have a fair level of experience  find a way of betting that suits you win singles best for me and always bet within our means imo gl |
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there is a lot of information to consider..you can take hours at it
but always some unknowns..... I always look for value so if you comfortable with your selection at price obtained probably as much as we can do other people on here know a lot more than me of course  |
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I take the opposite approach to posy (only bet Saturdays or other high grade races and only over the jumps), which just goes to show there is no set rules about what racing to bet on, just whatever suits you better and what you know more about. Most important things to look at are: ability, ground, course, distance, pace of the race, jockey and trainer. The most important thing is to know your form. The more you watch each horse, the more you'll learn about it.
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A fair catch but,better vbait is needed.
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i used to scan down thru the cards, take in the shape of the race, scn the prices and move on, then o back to the races my subconcous went ping over, and do every horses history, i only ever had time to do 2 or 3 races
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gl - theres no simple answer,look at the form after the race - what did you miss,
good advice comingupthehill and about trainers as well this game is as much as about reading trainers as what their horses do |
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watch every race replay each day. Don't bet for 6 months, that way you won't sub consciously bias your opinions. Keep list and ideas, see how you go.
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I started by going down the bookies after school, if trap 5 was a black dog then I reached for the clothing allowance.
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There were some great tipsters on here over time. They had certs for nearly every race telling us to "lump on lump on". They are nearly all gone now thank god - I reckon their mammies took the lap-tops off them.
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too clued up for a newbie to me, start by banning betfair's candy to a baby, ie the ability to win while you lose, how it was ever introduced still mystifies me?, and racing wanted to clean up its sport and then bring in a situation where you can win when you lose, a rocking horse could figure there was going to be hell to pay for any wannabe form study.
Transparent my ass! |
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Lower stakes until you get lucky... nothing to do with form etc it's just normal variation... like seeing Reds winning disproportionally one night at a roulette table.
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supersam 02 Dec 12 19:00
to be fair if i ever go racing i'll allways try and walk the track pre racing. ----------------- You appear to have got your priorities a little wrong .... especially given your admitted stakes. YOU are not riding in the races. Half the time you will be wasting precious and valuable TIME confirming the fairly obvious. - and how can you, "walk, the OTHER track"s - that you are NOT at - but, could well, be ALSO betting at? ------------------- Either that ^ - or your whole thread us a Fishing expedition. |
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Stop trying to pick winners,and start trying to find wrong prices.
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I agree with Artie
But you can only see the wrong prices when you know enough about the type of races your betting in |
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Oh give over with that self-righteous MANTRA, artie
If people are not able to analyse, and assimilate FORM scientifically to find a few winners ... Then how on earth can they, therefore, determine, "wrong prices."? FORM study and evaluating PERFORMANCES - both Past and Potential - HAS to [b]come FIRST. Your precious 'Prices' are THEN a subsequent consequence of that imperative INITIAL Modus Operandi. |
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* ^ scientifically - should read - SUFFICIENTLY.
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I know nothing about form etc.,but I make long term profits.Form study not at all necessary to show profits.
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Wrong prices OK, but how do you know that the price is wrong without form?
Checking that the nag looks well in the paddock compared to it looks last time it ran? Inside info? |
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Purchased ratings.
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this is getting way too technical for me
Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 7f Nursery 03-Dec-12 16:50 03-Dec-12 16:52 16.29 Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 7f Nursery 03-Dec-12 16:30 03-Dec-12 16:34 0.00 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Hcap 03-Dec-12 16:20 03-Dec-12 16:25 11.89 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : To Be Placed 03-Dec-12 15:50 03-Dec-12 15:53 0.00 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Mdn Stks 03-Dec-12 15:50 03-Dec-12 15:52 19.18 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m2f NHF 03-Dec-12 15:40 03-Dec-12 15:46 3.41 Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 2m Hcap 03-Dec-12 15:30 03-Dec-12 15:34 61.02 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m Mdn Stks 03-Dec-12 15:20 03-Dec-12 15:23 1.80 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 3m2f Hcap Chs 03-Dec-12 15:10 03-Dec-12 15:18 28.44 Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 1m1f Claim Stks 03-Dec-12 15:00 03-Dec-12 15:03 2.48 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 7f Claim Stks 03-Dec-12 14:50 03-Dec-12 14:52 6.39 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m Hcap Hrd 03-Dec-12 14:40 03-Dec-12 14:45 -1.96 Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 5f Hcap 03-Dec-12 14:30 03-Dec-12 14:34 5.16 Horse Racing / Kemp 3rd Dec : 1m2f Hcap 03-Dec-12 14:20 03-Dec-12 14:23 -8.27 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m4f Hcap Chs 03-Dec-12 14:10 03-Dec-12 14:15 15.03 Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 5f Hcap 03-Dec-12 13:55 03-Dec-12 13:57 -7.60 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 3m1f Hcap Hrd 03-Dec-12 13:40 03-Dec-12 13:52 32.18 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m4f Beg Chs 03-Dec-12 13:10 03-Dec-12 13:16 8.43 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : To Be Placed 03-Dec-12 12:40 03-Dec-12 12:46 137.95 Horse Racing / Plump 3rd Dec : 2m Nov Hrd 03-Dec-12 12:40 03-Dec-12 12:44 82.39 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. |