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14 Nov 12
22:27
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Date Joined:
23 Jun 11
any views on the race ? i like kingsmere down the bottom of the weights would proberbly of beaten carlito brigante last time at cheltenham carrying 11st 11 and giving that horse 3lbs and off 10st could run a massive race saturday a big worry is jake greenall and would like to see a better jockey booking but hey i took some 80s so guess thats priced in. be lucky The book
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Replies: 25
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The more I study the race the more I think it could be a Grands Crus demolition.
I've missed the price on him though so will probably just watch. |
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Didnt buy into last seasons hype but Pipe sounds rather confident so will be a layer(not of GC tho)on the day.
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yeah his form solid enough the nicholls thing came out and won easy again the other day but a combination of the price a 248 day absense (although pipe can have em ready 1st time) and 11st 6 lbs puts me off what do you guys think of the daly horse at a big price ( or have i really lost the plot lol
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This looks the ideal race for an outsider to run into a place.
Good luck with it. i might follow you in. |
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The last 9 winners were all
Irish or French bred. Had an SP of 20/1 or less. Younger than 9yo BHA rated 136-150 Ran less than 20 times under rules in UK/Ireland. |
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the last 10 winners had all won at 2 miles 4 furlongs or 2 miles 6 furlongs
the last 10 winners had all won a chase of at least Class 2 I haven't checked which this eliminates fully |
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I've built a nice stake on Kingsmere at 100 & 120 just today. I also backed it at 16's the last day at Kingsmere & was certain I was in for a big payoff till he fell 2 out.
The problem is that he's still entered for a novice chase earlier on the friday & saturday so they could decide to go for that instead. I really hope he goes for the big one though he's shown enough to deserve to take his chance. |
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@itsallinthebook you definitely haven't lost the plot! I've had this lined up for a while, and had to take the tripple figures on offer today. A large part of that price is the uncertainty with his other entries if he's around 50/1 on the day I'll be going in with a sizable EW chunk.
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i dont know who will win
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thanks for that aldi1
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when i decide i will inform everyone i am the forum expert......
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 thanks |
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yes guys the other entrie worries me but surely off 10st rather than carrying a big weight in the other and the fact its got 10STONE in the paddy must have the connections going to the paddy power i think he wuda beat carlito the other day with 11.13 giving 3lbs to it the horse wont think hes gotta jockey off th 10st mark big concern however jake riding ? dickie will have to ride the hobbs horse ( didnt mark bradbourne ride a bit for daly at 1 time ? ) much rather him than jake any ideas on the pilot guys ???? be lucky The book
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Can see Grand Crus winning this easily
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Agree Grand Crus might well trot up but his price is incredibly dull.
I've backed Triolo D'Alene and Walkon on the somewhat dubious basis they're the only two horses I feel have the scope to be 20 lbs better than their mark (at some point in their career if not necessarily on Saturday). |
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9/4 in a paddy power all 20 run ????
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Looks like Sam Twiston-Davis is taking the ride on Kingsmere.
Re Grand Crus his price is absolutely shocking, a really great horse & all but does anything ever deserve to go off at 2/1 in one of the most competitive Cheltenham handicaps?! |
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stooozbet that is music to my little ears !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I backed Kingsmere last time out and to say I was gutted to see him fall would be a massive understatement. Now that Sam is booked, he must have a great chance of a place at a generous price. Still think there is more to come from Hunt Ball though. So, this is where most of my stake will be going. GL chaps.
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I keep getting my Greenal's mixed up,one is good and the other fekin shoite.I hope the good one is on Kingsmere.
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Just for an interest and four places available might have a shilling e-w on Poquelin.
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Would be very surprised if Kingsmere placed, just not good enough imo... dont rate carlito as a chaser, so for me the form is suspect.
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Yea that's why we're on at the price we are. In the hope that he would have pulled 10 lengths clear had he not capsized last time out. There is a remote possibility that something is disguised from the market which is what you're looking for when backing at those prices.
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yes that's wise thinking
he might have won last time and had he done so he would fit all the trends bar one so you may be getting a much bigger price than he deserves |
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I`m on Grand Crus and Poquelin e-w. Hoping to trade Poquelin in running.
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