Chief Preview

I agree and posted a similar though less thorough thread

i'd imagine the procedure to transplant a heart is less thorough than that...

good stuff though, i am gonna fling a score e/w at Martyr cos I am a sucker for lost causes and the jockey booking is intriguing..

4.50 Newmarket Arkle Finance Handicap 1M G/S

a Tricky looking handicap in which the handicapper looks to have given many a decent chance and it would be no surprise to see this be a blanket finish today with many handicapped to around the same mark to performance. Crown Counsel comes into the race off the back of a decent effort here on the 22nd September and could well reproduce that sort of level of performance today in a similiar type of handicap. However he most probably will find one or two too good for him today and if chapter and verse can return to his best form he would easily win this event today under one of the best 5lbs claimmer around at the moment in Michael Murphy.

Chapter and verse on all weather form would have quite a few lbs in hand over these and showed too retain some of his ability when winning at Kempton 2 runs back over 7F. He makes some appeal in this and no surprise to see some support for him even though any ease in the ground should put pay to his chances as he has never looking through his form countered any going with soft in the title so the weather is a concern to him. Mawaakef looks up against it from a handicapping point of view with a couple of these and would be no surprise to see boogie shoes turn around the epsom form in which the Roger Varian charge never acted on the track.

A improving type looks to hold the key to this handicap with Charlie Hills Basseterre potentially well treated if you can forgive the sandown effort in which he was slow away and coule never quicken to land a blow. Hefner for the Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes team could well be the answer to this handicap having suffered at Goodwood last time out in what looked a decent 3yo handicap won by a potential listed class improver in grandeur, I am prepared to forgive him that run over the 10F of Goodwood as it could be said that they wasnt his optimum conditions and there is nothing to suggest that he wasnt going the right way prior to that when winning back to back races at Kempton & Ascot. The head win at Ascot should reflect this kind of race and in dubai dynamo he beat a conssitent 90+ rated handicapper, the form of that race hasnt really panned out but Hefner could well improve for a return to this track having run with credit at the craven meeting over 10F at this track when finishing 7th to Main Sequence who has finished runner up in two classics since that day. The handicap Hefner contested that day was a hot race and he didnt quite get home and I expect better of him today after a very lightly campagined 3yo career so far and any give in the ground will only help his chances here.

Boogie shoes, Mawaakef and Norse Blues all ran against each other over course and distance back in May and there is no reasons to suggest why Boogie shoes cant confirm the form.

Verdict - a very tricky handicap in which stakes should be kept to a minimum as a few of these have question marks hanging over them. Boogie Shoes has course form with a few of these that suggest the top weight should go close and at 7-1 looks a fair reflection of his chances, while chapter and verse could easily win this today if returning to his best turf form he is potentially very well treated on all weather form but the ground could well be a issue today so the overnight value has seemingly gone (14-1 last night). The 3yo fits the mould of this race with 3/7 winners (including boogie shoes) and HEFNER at 6-1 looks to me to hold a decent enough chance to be given ago at that price for Hannon/Hughes here and is the e/w bet for me today.

Advised bet - Hefner 0.5pts e/w @ 6-1 (blue cube)

2.20 Newmarket Nayef Joel Stakes Group 2 Class 1 3yo+ 8F G/S

The Best place to start with over this mile I feel is with Richad Hannon 3yo Trumpet Major the impressive Craven winner who deadheated in what looks a decent Throughbread stakes at glorious goodwood under his group penalty and both of these runs standout on his form this season. There is no doubts with him on the course or the conditions today and he should run a decent race as he has been consistent this season despite two lasts in which he was beaten far in either of those competitons, the concern with him has to be the fact that his worse performance on my ratings came in his last race at Goodwood when last in a group 2 behind Premio Loco who he reopposes here today. There can be excuses put into place on Trumpet Major run that day as it was the smallest field he has contested this season and never really raced up with the pace which the winner made all over, With his best performances this season coming in Group 3 class races he should hold his own in this group 2 company while the course and ground are ideal for him to give his true running and he just comes out on top on my ratings of the runners in this race with a 125 mark.

The next two on my ratings are Fanualter & side glance on a mark of 124 on their best performances this calander year and the former who didnt give his running at meydan earlier in the year returned to these shores to put up a decent effort over the stiff 8F of Ascot in the summer mile stakes in which he held off the late challange of Pastrol Player who was beaten just a neck and has gone well again since, the price on offer for Fanualter could well be overpriced in regards to the conditions and the course type and maybe the stable has been under estimated by the bookies for this as you can get a double figure price at the moemnt in which I wouldnt put anyone off. Side Glance has had a tough season and been set some pretty hefty targets such as trying to lower Frankel colours at Royal Ascot this season in which he didnt run a bad race, however his York 2nd to Dubai Prince looks to be his best performance this season even though he finished 2nd I felt he potentially was a shade unlucky in that event to which he finished in front of sir michael stoute Tazahum who he meets again here today, the epsom win showed he is useful over the extended mile on a easy track, so the reverting to a stiffer 8F should help him and 7/1 looks a fair relection on his chances.

Jovaility(123), Most improved (122)and Premio Loco (122) are the next trio and John Gosdon had a decent first day as he bids to win the trainers championship and his filly Jovaility peaked when winning the Windsor forest stakes a Group 2 race and that was a decent effort, however she threw in a stinker when not liking the testing conditions at the july meeting and has since been transfered to amercia and back since so her well being has to be taken on trust with the travel in between. Most Improved peaked when winning the St james Palace stakes at the Royal Meeting but didnt fair to well when taking on his elders in France, he needs to bounce back to form but does have form in the book in which he finished in front of Trumpet Major in the Dewhurst back last autumn even though 2yo form is never a true guide to thses types of races. Premio Loco would most probably be a surprise winner of this event given he is now 8yo and this looks highly competitive and would be the oldeat winner in the last decade of this race.

the rest of the ratings - Tazahum 121, Pentient 119, Sovergin Debt 118, Stipulate 118, Saigon 110

verdict - Fanunalter did nothing wrong when winning at big odds at Ascot 2 runs back and shouldnt be as big a price as he is for this, but for the winner I do Like the chances of TRUMPET MAJOR of Richard Hannon who has strong pieces of course form to his name, he looks the pick of the 3yo with Most Improved having to carry a group 1 penalty in this today looking like his chances may have gone for that victory. Side Glance if not feeling the effects of a long season is the danger in this event.

Advised bet - Trumpet Major 1pt e/w @ 13-2 (Billys)

heh gringo your horses ran peesh

Thats not very nice..

3.40 Newmarket The Cambridgeshire Handicap 9F Good 35 runners class 2 Handicap

Toughest of handicaps to solve and the stamina should come into play today over this 9F with such a large field going to post and a horse that stays the trip is certainly needed and mainly form over 10F. Chill the Kite comes into this race of the back of a ok run in a listed race which was most probably his best run to date and he looks like he could well be ahead of the handicapper and the only concern is that this is the toughest test of stamina to date and that maybe the only reason why he doesnt go off favourite.

The favourites in this handicap hasnt fared well in the recent past and the winner of this handicap in the last few years has been a decent handicapper rather then group horses and that may well be why the last few years hasnt been won by favourites in this event. Stevie thunder was 2nd in this 12 months ago to prince of Johanne and meets that rival on much better terms for Ian Williams and should run a big race again here today after that effort 12 months ago and he has shown form in the past two runs to suggest that he is primed for a big run today and his double carpet price of 33-1 is looking like a big price for this. Roger Varian Mijhaar has stamina and that should help and he has looked like a horse that needs to be targeted at this sort of racce and should go well providing no stumbling or trouble is meet in running today, he is the one who looks handicapped well for this who is likely to see out the trip well and should be thereabouts today.

The last two that catch the eye in this event is David o'meara Anderiego who looks in need of a stiffer test of stamina and has a feather weight for this after his useful claimmer takes off a vital 7lbs of his back and he is of interest for a inform yard and the other is Godolphins Start Right who has always looked a type to win a big handicap and this has been on the cards for the horse since the ground went against him in the 2010 renwal of this event, he has been campagined over further with this in mind and has caught the eye on a few occasions so far most notablly at Glorious Goodwood when sticking on behind Landaman and that effort would be a similair test of stamina and speed that would be needed for a event such as this.

Verdict - Chill the Kite could well win this with a bit in hand if he can see out the trip and the same could be said about Anderigo of avid o'Meara. However this has always looked like a good chance for Roger Varian Mijhaar to finally record a big handicap win his efforts have deserved. Start Right looks the best of the Godolphin pair for this, while Stevie Thunder at 33-1 looks too big to totally discounnt for this as he looks to be refinding his form and needs this tougher test of stamina.

Advised bet - MIJHAAR 1pt e/w @ 12-1 & Stevie Thunder 1pt e/w @ 33-1 (both lads)

3.00 Newmarket The Sun chariot stakes Group 1 8F Good

1 - CHACHAMAIDEE - One of two 4yo to contest this group 1 and in recent years the older horses have done well in this race but with only 25% of the field they may struggle to stop the 3yo regaining the winning trend in this race. Sir Henry Cecil has a strong hand in this Group 1 today with 25% of the field and will know excatly what to expect of his Mare who has steadily found her form this season and in her most recent run over in Ireland seemingly improved on her form to get back to the level she showed in this very race 12 months ago when finishing a close enough 2nd to 3 times winner Sahpesha. She looks to need a mile these days as she didnt have to be at her best to land the Goodwood group 2 Lennox Stakes that is her race it seems. She ran well in the windsor forest stakes over a mile in which she just couldnt muster enough to overcome a stronger stayer. Her reward for a decent season came in Marton Stakes at the curragh last time out where she was rewarded the race in the stewards room. Based on the way the race panned out that day their is no reason why she shouldnt confirm that running with Laugh out Loud who finished back in 4th but put up her best that day as well and being a 3yo could improve to bridge the gap even though alot will depend on just how this race will be run as Chachamaidee is likely to be held up to get the trip today.

2 - SIYMOUA - The only french raider with the change of hands of beauty parlour too Sir Henry Cecil and Simyoua ran a decent race when 3rd in the Falmouth Stakes in very soft conditions at the July meeting, that day she finished behind Elusive Kate who had more of the run of the race in the conditions that day as Siymoua tried to give weight and ground in those conditions in not the most soundly run Group 1 in history and with the 5lbs swing also in her favour there is every chance that she will benefit more under today conditions so a case can be made for her to turn around the falmouth form. She turned the form around under quicker conditions when contesting 10F in france with Falmouth winner Giofra and if they go hard enough in front today she will be doing her best work at the finish, but that once again depends on the pace angle so she is considered, on RPR she ran a similiar ability race in france over 10F as she did under soft conditions over a mile at the july meeting so she will need the strong pace over this mile under good conditions I feel today.

3 - BEAUTY PARLOUR - The Stable change looks like it was with this Group 1 in mind for this unbeaten filly over a mile and the winner of the Poule D'eassai Des Pouliches was once regarded as a Arc hopefull with the thought behind her progressing over further in which she has tasted defeat in since this day on her last run for her former trainer, she wasnt disgraced over 10.5F and in fact put up her best rating when only finding one too good and maybe with less aggressive tactics she could have won that day so be no surprise to See Sir henry Cecil put another attempt into her over 10F before the season is out even though she only holds a arc entry at the moment and that looks very unlikely with her taking this event on and if she wins this today she will most probably end up contesting the mile on champions day now that stablemate will be aimed at the champion stakes. Beauty Parlour mile form looks solid given she put up a 126 rating when beating up who reopposes here and the strong pace that day set it up for both her and up to readily stay on but Beauty Parlour under a typical confident Christophe Soumillon was worthy of a extra couple of lengths and with stamina proven she should no be inconvined to the conditions of this race even though she is another that races of the pace.

4 - ELUSIVE KATE - was europes top rated 2yo filly last year and returned very much overpriced in the Falmouth stakes after pulling out of Royal Ascot as not quite up to scratch to do herself justice and John Gosdon looks after this talented female who had the run of the race in the Falmouth when only finding one quite possiablly fitter then her and she had Simyoua behind that day and while there can be a case to say she will struggle to confirm the form this bonny little horse will not be inconvined today if their isnt enough pace on as she is will cut out the running and better ground suits her just as much as well. She has won since the falmouth when confirming form with Golden Lilac under conditions that would have suited that rival more then the soft conditions at the July meeting and she confirmed what a decent horse she is  with her second group 1 of her short career. She is very tough and she proved that when battling on too the line on her most recent effort which was a PB even though once again it paid to be up with the pace (first 3 home were always fighting the pace) she showed she is in good heart taking on the colts and her elders.

5 - GAMILATI - Godolphins runner in this race doesnt hold much hope on the book and this has turned into a race that the boys in blue dont really point their strongest fillies towards and while she is a group 2 winner in her own right after winning the Cherry Hinton as a 2yo she hasnt been knocking the house down with her form as a 3yo and the close 2nd in the Sceptre Stakes looks a weak group 3 piece of form and she hasnt quite found her form from Dubai. She needs to find some form on the book to really have a say and while she could be regarded as fresher then some of her rivals having only had two runs since the dubai carnival she is another who isnt ridden to aggressivly over a mile to get the trip and her latest effort over 7F she was handy enough to do her self justice with her stamina confirmed and she readily picked off with not too much fuss, it was better then her seasonal debut at Goodwood when never a factor.

6 - LA COLLINA - Another that was in the Irish Matron Stakes at the Curragh and was readily beaten by both uk raiders she reopposes today and she stuck on that day from the rear in which she really had to be pushed to just get into contention and while the pace of that race maybe didnt totally suit her she has nothing from that run to suggest that she can reverse the form with Chachmaidee today and with the way the race is looking like it will be ran she may well struggle to travel kindly enough to have a say in a group1 again. She has ground to make up on UP from running over a stiffer test of stamina when never able to a blow over 9f in a group 3 she will benefit if the pace isnt too strong and looks one to drop back in trip to 7F on the pick of her form, she hasnt really trainned on from the group1 she won as a 2yo.

7 - LAUGH OUT LOUD - Should benefit for the way this race is likely to be run and that could help her to bridge the gap with Chachamaidee on their running in the Maton stakes in which she was no match for the turn of foot of the Henry Cecil runner and even though this could well be more her kind of race and she could reverse the form she does need to find improvement as well on her running. She was dissapointing in the Coronation stakes when finishing 5th as she had the run of the race and John Gosdon should know that Elusive kate will have her measure from the front of the field for this.

8 - UP - Aiden O'Brien looks to win yet another uk Group1 and UP is one of the more exposed 3yo in the field today having been reguallay campagined throughout the season over a variety of trip and comes into this race having refound her best form after never really building on the performance behind Parlour Beauty earlier in the season and while she has place claims she does have a to find improvement to reverse the form with parlour Beauty here who has progressed in her lightly raced 3yo campagin. UP last two runs has proven that she is worth another attempt over further as she stayed on well over the extended mile at the Curragh and then over 10F she won again in races below group 1 level but with them she put up efforts that were as worthy as her runner up in france over a mile. Id be surprised if Aiden O'Brien doesnt adapt new tactics for this tough galloper as she wasnt good enough to beat Parlour Beauty from the rear as that rival had a better turn of foot so I wouldnt be surprised to see Joseph giving Up a more aggressive ride given that she has proven stamina and she could be the one to upset the apple cart here.

Verdict - This does look a striaght match up between Elusive Kate and Parlour Beauty with the French raider Simouya the eye catching of the 4yo if Up does help to force the pace with Elusive Kate and laugh out loud, however I cant see this being run at a strong enough pace for Her to come into play as she will need this whole galloping mile to upset the principals. Up is the outsider who could potentially upset this straight match up and whilst it is fascinating renwal with plenty of possiables the run f the race could well mean Elusive Kate will be hard to beat even though Beauty Parlour could improve for Henry cecil and get well into the mid to late 130 on the RPR ratings.

ADVISED bet - Elusive Kate 1pt win @ 5-2

Chief, nearly talked myself into a small bet on Stevie Thunder with B365 @ 40's, but refrained. Looks a decent race for the spectator, and after making a decent enough case for half the field that's exactly what I'll be. Best of Luck.

3.55 Epsom Handicap 3yo+ 0-95 10F G/S

1 - RESURGE

Comes into this handicap having retainned his ability this season even though he is yet to rediscover the level of form that sure him win the investec investement stakes last June off a mark of 97 in which he had Right Step behind him in 2nd and that piece of form standsup as the strongest piece of uk form on offer. Right Step is 4lbs better off at the weights from that day 16 months ago, however looking at the form pattern so far this season it is apparent that Resurge has retainned more of his ability from that day. Looking at the form of the gelding through out this season he ran well to win at Chester in soft conditions over 10 furlongs at the chester cup meeting in which the strongest pace set it up nicely for a closer that day, he then under a penalty ran well at the derby meeting in which he finished behind one of todays rivals Borug and in the process putting up a 6lbs worse effort then that rival. Both took similiar paths in that handicap and on the weights strictley today it should be differcult for Resurge to turn around the form however recent form is patchy.

2 - VASILY

First run at the Epsom course and needs the ground to dry out which is a possiability given the weather forecast for the track today, he finished last at Windsor in soft conditions latest and the handicap that was in softer conditions at the newmarket July course earlier this season was in conditions that could be ragarded as unsuitable in a event that has really worked out well. The turning track of Windsor seems to be the ideal track for him with his winning coming their over a mile and half and the downhill turning track of Epsom is a unknown under a sharp trip, a win at Brighton earlier in his days suggest these types of tracks hold no fear for the horse but I would have concerns with the trip for him today as he does look like a horse that stays well. The fact he likes to make the running could help his chances if there is a lack of pace in this race.

3 - RIGHT STEP

Course and distance winner back at the starte of the season benefitted that day from the heavy going in which he was raised 7lbs in the weights for and with that cam a struggle to get competitive as the handicap he won many suffered in the extreme conditions, the last 3 runs at York twice and Goodwood have been very poor efforts and he looks to be struggling for any sign of form, he has fallen back below his winning mark from the start of the season and now finds himself 1lb lower in the weights that day. A better show should be had back at Epsom as his course form is solid and he is better weighted with resurge on their run last June 2011. Michael Murphy claim would have put him below this mark and even though the 12F could have stretched his stamina he still should have performed better so I would be surprised if he can reproduce the level of performance today to win.

4 - JOHN BISCUIT

Has steadily improved this season to be at this mark and with drying ground in his favour he does make some appeal, however the last run at York looked to have halted his progress as there was no real reason why he was beaten so readily behind kirthill (finished in front of right step). The return to 10F should help his chances today as well even though the 12F run at Ascot was a slight improvement on his previous run over 10F at the same track, his win at epsom previous to that he stayed on readily and if they go a good enough gallop he is another that will be advanataged by a end to end gallop in this.

5 - BRUNSTON

Return to the turf today and surely in prep for a jumps winter campagin for Brenden Powell and whilst he has some decent form in the book over 10F it isnt anything out of the oridnary and you have got to factor in his liking for quick conditions underfoot yet they have campagined him over the summer jumping timber. Once a winner of the Spring cup as a 40-1 shot he does clearly have the ability to beat these off his current mark but there is quite a few question marks against him to be highly considered for this event today.

6 - LYSSIO

Started this season with come tough asks in the winter derby and Gordon Richard Stakes at Sandown in heavy conditions which was way behind his level of ability and he was readily tailed off. He has since benn given more of a chance by his handler and steadily showed form until winning over course and distance at the end of August in which he had the run of the race as the first two home was 1st and 2nd throughout the contest. His main advanatage today could be a easy lead unless Splendid light or Vasily rake him on for the lead and set it up for a closer. His task is harder by the penalty but even without the jockey claim this time around he does come into the race in posiablly the best form of the runners today if you forgive his recent polly track effort in which he was far to aggressivly ridden.

7 - SPLENDID LIGHT

The John Gosdon yard should know what it would take to win this handicap on a line with gatewood who won here in June from Borug and Splendid Light who is raced completley different to his stablemate (same owners) as he likes to force the pace up front and could well have the run of the race even though this track does play to the strength of those held up. Splendid Light was allotted quite a high mark for his made all victory over 11F at Kempton and will need to find improvement having looked handicapped past his best on turf debut back in April, the absence can only suggest that he had some problems and maybe hadnt recovered from them when dissapointing in april and I just feel he may well not be the best betting proposition at around 5-1 on a tricky track if he has got problems.

8 - DEIRE NA SLI

has had a mixed season so far this year and best performance came at this track when finishing 4th to Highland Knight who was bit of a handicap blot that day and made all over the 9F of this track and it could be said that the rest in the field was inferior to the winner who has gone on to hold his own in listed and group 3 stakes races. Since that race she had proved to be below the class 2 handicap sphere being well beaten at Sandown by Trade Commissioner and then tailing off in a ascot big race handicap behind field of dreams. The last run was ok at Sailsbury in which they finished in a bit of a heap and he maybe does need this further trip which he encounters today as he stays on well and even if they dont go so quick he maybe is the one who could come with a rattle home. His best RPR in ireland was over 9-10F so there is everychance a return to form today given his low mark and 25-1 is too big a price I feel

10 - BORUG

Has form to go close if the right horse turns up today as he has the beating of Resurge on their running behind Gatewood at this track, needs to be held up to get the trip, connections will be hoping that the John Gosdon horse does serve it upto Lyssio at the head of the field today to make it a evenly contested race in which if he is on top of his game is certainly one that will be suited to the track and conditions. The Windsor form behidn Vasily he is entitled to reverse today having been held up to get the trip and the front two never really being pressed if turned out to be that the run of the race went against Borug that day, he also finds himself running over his favoured trip today in comparison to that rival having clocked his two best efforts at Newmarket and Epsom over 10F earlier in the season, add to that the weights are in his favour he should be able to reverse the form here today. He caught the eye at Goodwood a couple of runs back behind Landaman and his form on downhill tracks looks to be very much to his liking.

verdict - Lot could depend on the pace angle as Lyssio could get a easy time on the front end if Splendid Light faulters on his return from a absence and while you could make a case that Vasily has to cut out the running over shorter then his optimum trip you cant be sure those tactics will be deployed here, So the held up horse may well suffer against those who may get first run. However this track does enable those held up to come with a strong run from the rear and if good enough or too well handicapped in this instance you can overcome the lack of pace. Borug would be the one to take from the formbook against others in a similiar boat and at 5-1 looks the e/w bet to nothing here as he shouldnt have any excuses however at a big 25-1 odds on offer DEIRE NA SERI is taken as the chance bet with just 9 runners and doubts over a fair few of these in terms of recent form, pace and handling of the track I think she could well cause a shock in this.

Advised Bet - DEIRE NA SERI 1pt e/w @ 25-1

Good to see you posting your in depth previews again WC, good luck with todays outsider.

ffs well chef, you get rsi scrolling down this mother and nowts even placed yet, less talking more........everything really

[u]3.30 Ascot Wear it pink Handicap Class 2 12F G/S[/u]

1 - FATTSOTA

Is bang in form at the moment having ran well at the St Leger meeting a couple of weeks back in which he was just denied by Viking Storm over 12 furlongs and that was off the back of a decent win over todays track and distance. Any give in the ground should help him as he enjoys to get his toe in and apart from the 9F event at the Guineas meeting he has progressed steadily as a 4yo and should give his running once again despite the 3lbs rise in the weight for his head defeat last time out.

2 - TROPICAL BEAT

Ran a ok race when finishing 8th in a bunch finish at Kempton back in June and then progressed when stepped up to 10F on the all weather when finishing well with a sustained run from the rear and there should be more to come from the horse when he is returned to the all weather for a decent handicap. Worse effort so far this season was here over 12F behind Fattsota who he opposses today on 3lbs better terms then he did that day and was slightly unlucky this day at Ascot as he was stopped in his progress from the rear. The effort at Sandown behind Encke (st Leger winner) was a decent effort over a stiff 10F on GS ground and that day he had Fattsota behind him, the Haydock run more recent behind Sir Graham Wade suggested that Stamina is his strong point and this 12F under these conditions providing its a end to end gallop should she him go close.

3 - MULAQEN

Was far too good for class 4 company when really producing the goods at York earlier in the season and comes into this handicap more fresh then quite a few of these. The performances since being upped in class have been a mixed bag as the 13lbs rise in the weights may have been a slightly harsh rise in the weights by the assessor and the Royal ascot performance behind Camborune he was well beaten suggesting he is a little short at this level even though the run at The July course in early June behind High Jinx suggested he could hold his own at this level, Rain would increase his chances as the softer the better for his chances.

4 - VOODOO PRINCE

Maybe needed the run when reappearing at Newmarket over a mile in soft conditions and has progressed nicely this season since given a stiffer test of stamina and the listed affair latest when failing to overcome the small field pace at Goodwood over 10F in soft conditions proved that he is going the right way after previously winning with a little in hand at Ripon on what was his 2nd try over 10F and a long overdue try again at this distance having previously shown to be effective over 10F at Haydock in a class 4 handicap which he ran with much credit. Only 5lbs higher then his Ripon win he is due to be raised a stone for his Listed affair effort and while this is a much stiffer test of stamina then 10F at Ripon and Goodwood it looks like their hand has been forced to get him a race before he is hit with that rise in the weights.

5 - ROYAL PECULIAR

Sir Henry Cecil is in decent form at present and his Royal Peculiar whose only plemish on his record was when trying to force the pace over 14F at Sailsbury and finishing tailed off has been consistent despite that run saving his 3 best efforts for his 12F on easier tracks then he contests today. A winter campagin in the top handicaps is on the cards for this horse having shaped so well on both his all weather runs looking above average when landing his maiden a tad easier then his winning distance would have suggested. The conditions underfoot are likely to be completely different to the York run and he has a 2lbs rise for that York performance to overcome here as well today. There could be further improvement only having had 5 runs and he is respected but there are question marks to be answered

6 - HANOVERIAN BARON

Bath Winner 2 runs back when dropped to class 4 company which he was too good for and if he gets in could well go well again in the November handicap at his beloved Doncaster which despite the last behind Sir Graham wade latest he wasnt beaten far and si run a decent race despite finsihing last of a bunched field. Has had quite a few lasts so far this season and the York and Goodwood efforts he was well beaten in both of these runs and was in the process dropped 11LBS which helped him to get into the Bath Class 4 Handicap in which he bounced back to form much better then he had been running, This looks a tough ask for at Ascot over 12F being much more exposed then many of these and he looks a low 80 rated horse.

7 - SILVER LIME

Two 3yo handicaps at Goodwood saw him put up decent efforts in both of those handicaps and with it he looked ready to take on his elders in handicap as he was a horse going the right way and that progression of 12lbs in the weights saw him run a ok race behind Kirthill at York 12F track in which he was beaten by both Martin Chuzzlewit & Tropical Beat and the latter is worse off at the weights with both the 3yo in today's handicap. Silver lime bounced back to form the next time out when paired by in a 3yo handicap at Ascot in which he had Martin Chuzzlewit in behind this day and showed a liking for the stiffer test of stamina even though the going was ont he faster side of good this day. James Doyle returns to the saddle to re-pick up the partnership and he could well be one to beat if reproducing that Ascot run latest but the conditions are likely to be not as quick today so slight caution is needed with him as he is best on top of the ground on the book.

8 - MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT

Ran well against his elders at York in which he finished in front of tropical beat and Silver Lime and could well confirm form with both of these today under these conditions even though he has to perform much better then he did when wll beaten here last time (behind silver Lime that day). The latest effort at Doncaster he finished behind Fattsota and that was still a respectable effort in which he has been dropped 1lb in the weights for and while he was fairly beaten that Day by the marco Botti horse he can draw hope that he finds himself a couple of lbs better off at the weights and with a liking for soft conditions (chester form suggests soft suits) in his favor he could well run a big race under Richard Hughes.

9 - HENRY CLAY

Dissapointed latest on the all weather when well beaten by Position and finishing 7th for Mark Johnston who is souble handed at the foot of the weights for this handicap and Henry Clay is a heavily raced 3yo who ran well in a class 4 handicap behind at newbury on his last turf run and enjoys on the top of the ground surface which he isnt certain to get today, Frankie Dettori looks like he has picked up a spare for Mark Johnston today with Joe Fanning partnering the stablemate Party Line and im not quite sure he will see the 12F out well enough here today as frankie will likely give him a positive ride as he is best when racing with the pace.

10 - PARTY LINE

Joe Fanning partners this Montjeu Filly who has been on the go quite a bit this season and progressed nicely through out the summer and always runs here race no matter what conditons she is paired with and her least impressive performance was most probably at catterick over 12F on going with firm in the title and she does look at her best being able to get her toe in with solid efforts at Chester, Newcastle and more recently at haydock when failing to see out the 14F that day. Wins this season has been on going decribed as good ground and she has got a tougher task as they were at a lower level but the drop back to 12F today should see her run her race as she suggested she was more then capable in a class 2 latest in which she just didnt last home.

Verdict - Decent middle distance handicap in which Party Line looks the pick of the Mark Johsnton pair. Fattsota, Martin Chuzzlewit, Silver Lime and Tropical beat all have decent class 2 form that ties in with each other and Voodoo Prince is a interesting runner as he is due to be raised a stone in weights and looks like he is given this mile and half target with that in mind as there were limited choices for him to get a run in before he is raised in the weights. The Mobile stakes hold the key for me in this handicap and even though the stiffer track may well see Tropical Beat come out on top this time around I am going to stick with MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT for this who did well to last the trip out having been raced postivly throughout the race and still managed to be there at the finish off a strong pace and with Richard Hughes booked for the ride this time around the suggestion is that he can leave his Doncaster effort behind which he was dropped in and the ascot run prior a case can be made for the ground disliking and the fitting of blinkers this time rather then a visor for a yard that excel with use of headgear is another factor to draw some hope from.

ADVISED BET - Martin Chuzzlewit 2pt e/w @ 9-1 (slybet)

3.35 Ascot Challange Cup Handicap class 2 7F Soft

1 - Edingbrugh Knight

Ran well when finishing 2nd in the Crietrion stakes to Liberianno at Newmarket in the summer and while that was a weak looking group 3 he ran a decent race and was in form when finishing 2nd over C&D to Filed of Dream and while he is 3lbs higher in the weights then that day he does run well over Seven furlongs here on the best of his form, the Ground today however is a concern if further rain hits the track as even though he did run well on Good to soft ground at Newcastle last season he has more often then not perfered on top of the ground.

2 - Set the trend

Won a conditions event latest and comes into this back in form and the return to handicap company is set to suit having found group company a shade too high for him to land a race with mainly contesting group 2 races and more recently a Group 3 at Sailsbury where he was beaten by Tulius. A Course winner over a mile he does handle soft conditions underfoot well so there could be reason for optimisim given that stamina is assured for this event today.

3 - Captain Ramius

The Ayr Gold cup winner stayed on strongly at Ayr in desperate conditions underfoot and his stamina helped him to win that handicap of a 6lbs lower weight then he carries today as he had previously done all his winning over todays trip to which he is likely to go well again in with form on slow going and a course winner over 7 Furlongs when putting up a decent effort here last season off 20lbs lower then he runs off today and with the Bunbury cup 3rd reading well as well in reference to this event today he should give his running with much in his favour as he did look a potential group class horse when winning at Ayr Last time out.

4 - Skilful

3 recent runs in listed races suggested that a return to softer conditions will suit his chances as their is potentially more to come in regards to his progression as he is still lightly tried as a 4yo abd comes into this race as one of the fresher runners in the race. The Windsor run stacks up well and that was over a mile, but given the stronger race and stiffer track today the drop back in trip shouldnt hinder his chances in this wide open handicap. The return to handicap company is a plus for his chances having showen to be a decent handicapper when winning over a mile at Haydock last season, he is however 12lbs higher then that day in the weights but has readily improved based on his listed performance and could be hard to peg back under these conditions.

5 - Bannock

Has paid with the handicapper since his 2yo days and still hasnt been given respite by the assesor despite some disspaointing efforts as a 3yo. Chester run was decent over a mile but a far cry from what type of race he contests today and his ascot form reads as poor efforts in the Jersey stakes, then two handicaps on good & GF ground over course and distance and a easier type of track looks he prefer and based on the Newamrket form their is little reason to believe he can reverse the form with top weight Edingbrugh Knight. The return to softer conditions could see him bounce back to some sort of form, but he does look a little up agaisnt it here.

6 - Prince of Johanne

The cambridgeshire winner from 2011 and this years royal hunt cup winner is a non-runner for this.

7 - Imperial Guest

Has been a solid handicapper this season with good efforts when denied in the Stewards cup over six furlongs and then when he followed that run up with a course win at Goodwood over seven furlongs on ground just on the soft side of good. A Regular at this track and wasnt beaten to far in the Victoria cup here earlier in the season behind Hlobal Village and that race should have some barring on this result today as its under sililiar conditions and if it was run on better ground then Imperial Guest may have performed much better as this season has proved he was well handicapped that day and he doesnt really perform to as high level on soft ground.

8 - Filed of Dream

Better weighted with both Dont Call Me and Imperial Guest and allways seems to give his running over this course which plays to his strength but there is some concerns over the ground conditions as he has often performed below his best when paired with ground with soft in the title, sure to go well in this handicap if the ground was to be on the good side, he is another one connections will be hopping that the morning stays dry and no more rain hits the course.

9 - Dont Call me

Was well handicapped when winning at this track last time out beating imperial Guest in the finish and despite the rise in the weights he does handle the softer conditions maybe better then those that finished close enough to have the swing in the weights in their favour. The Haydock win earlier in the season in a class 3 handicap along with the 3rd in the Royal Hunt cup suggest that he has the stamina to last out the trip out well under thses softer conditions and it be no surprise to see him confirm form with imperial guest under these conditions.

10 - Belgian Bill

Outclassed latest in a group 2 and had previously run his first real decent race this season when not beaten far at goodwood over a mile and maybe the more speed type tracks are to his liking and a return to the all weather is likely to be fruitful at some point over the winter months. ties in the form of the royal hunt cup and the buckingham palace stakes at Royal Ascot having ran similiar types of races in terms of stamina and buckingham palace stakes seem to be the stronger effort out of the two. The 2lbs rise in the weights for the group 2 effort seems a little harsh and makes his task of reversing form with Global Village and Jamesie a more differcult task.

11 - Regal Parade

Was doing his best work at the finish in the Ayr Gold Cup a track that he often performs his best races and while he has claims of reversing the form given the way the race finished and the weights and trip oon that evidence suiting him you have to take into account that this 8yo best form does come on a flat galloping track such as Newbury and Ayr and despite a win over 7F at this track way back in his history there is some limitations to his stamina and maybe todays conditions will just stretch him.

12 - Brae Hill

Ran a ok race in the Ayr gold cup when finishing 6th and this seasons Lincoln handicap winner and last season Bunbury cup winner is slowly falling back down the handicap ladder to a winnerable mark even though it is unlikely to be until next season when he is back on a winning mark and then he will be 7yo and possiablly on the decline in terms of handicaps. Constantly on the go he has form at this track and under soft conditions when 4th in the Victoria cup in which he is most probably just about weighted to reverse the form with Global Village weven though that rival beat  brae hill a shade easy and while these races are what Brae Hill is about he is maybe just in the grip of the handicapper for a couple of more lengths.

13 - Cape Classic

Dissapointed latest at Newmarket and is turned out quickly to make amends, but their are limitations it seems to his ability to stay at this level and at Newmarket on Good ground he failed to see out the trip. Brilliant wins at Doncaster over 7F and Windsor 6F this season suggest he does like the easier stamina tracks and its twice now since winning at Windsor over 6F that he has flopped at Newmarket this season and with Ascot being soft going and just as stiff if not more stiff then Newmaarket he could well struggle to see out the trip here.

14 - Arnold Lane

A very consistent performer who has ran two similiar types of runs at Ascot this season against same age group and his elders and was just denied at Goodwood on good to soft ground when Imperial Guest pipped him in the shadows of the post and maybe he just didnt quite see out the trip. One to keep on the right side off because his winning cant be far off, its just a matter of Mick Channon finding the ideal race for him and Doncaster 7f handicap might just be the race for him so one to keep in mind. The ground have seemly gone against him as a sound surface seems to suit and his best chance was last time at this track when the ground was on the quick side of good and he did fail to see it out in what was just as competitive as this handicap today.

15 - Excellent Guest

A lot better last season then this season even though he did run a cracker in the Royal Hunt cup when just finding Prince of Joanne too strong over a mile here and that performance may well stand him good stead for this with the possiability that stamina will be needed. His form over 7F at this track doesnt read too badly and the 2lbs dropped in the weights for this from his last in the cambridgeshire does give him a better chance as he did go well in the Goodwood mile handicap at this years Gloruis goodwood meeting. the performance before the cambridgshire wasnt much better as he finished down the field behind dont call me, but even at his favoured track his performances with firm in the title is a little below par, the softer conditions should help his chances as 7F on rattling ground is too sharp it seems these days and he has fallen back to his victoria cup mark which he ran well below par so while there are claims there is also question marks and that last run in the cambridgshire was just no sort of run what so ever to draw any real hope.

16 - Captain Bertie

needs soft conditions and really caught the eye at doncaster lincoln meeting over a mile behind norse blues in which he was a unlucky loser and then made amends when beating Victoria Cup winner Global Village in the spring cup under soft conditions and if you use the run in this season Bunbury cup as a pointer as well behind bonnie brae (captain ramius 3rd) he is a mudlark who saves his best for ground he gets his toe in. The goodwood mile form was a flop from Captain Berie point of view but he should go well in this handicap today at Ascot and give a much better show then the Royal hunt cup run which once again maybe the ground wasnt ideal for him, the drop back to 7F could well favor Global Village more at the weights but Captain Bertie is the younger and potentially the more progressive since they meet in the spring cup.

17 - Global Village

7F soft ground form stacks up well in this season Victoria cup and Buckingham palace stakes and while on both pieces ofo form he has a strong chance there are more younger progressive runners to either turn arund the form or comfirm the running with. Ryan Clark 3lbs looks to offset some of the weight to length negatives he has against some rivals and he can be another that can discount the most recent 7F GF effort here behind Dont call me and should be thereabouts in this handicap today.

18 - Jamesie

Went into many notebooks having won his race in the buckingham palace stakes with only to see eton forever on the otherside of the track and now finds himself worse of at the weights with Global Village on that piece of form, its hard to fathom if the conditions of the track did favor the farside that much to draw a strong conclusion for jamesie to confirm the running. Didnt handle the ground at Newmarket in the Bunbury cup and bounced back to better form in the stewards cup afterwards. Has had some tough asks this season and it has been quite a heavy campagin with a fair effort latest in Ireland. Captain Bertie holds himon bunbury cup form and johnny murtagh services have been atainned elsewhere in this handicap, but de sousa isnt a bad replacement.

Verdict - Open as allways handicap and alot of these have chances, Skilfull should show more this time around and could go well but not entirley sure just how much to trust him while dont call me could wel confirm his form with those that finish close up to him here last time as the soft ground shouldnt be a problem for Dandy Nicholls 5yo. This could well fall to the spring winners in the shape of CAPTAIN BERTIE & Global Village (massive gamble in the Buckingham Palce stakes) who could well reverse the form with Jamesie here today, however Captain Bertie is one that loves this type of ground and has william Carson back in the saddle who partnered the horse to victory in the Spring cup at Newbury. captain Ramius should confirm ayr gold cup running with Regal Parade in a highly competitive handicap.

Advised bet - Captain Bertie 1pt e/w @ 14-1 (Billys)

3.25 Longcamp L`arc De Triomphe 12F Heavy Group 1

1 - Sea Moon

Hasnt quite achieved the performances at this level on the formbook and most probably put up his best effort in group 1's when 5th of 10 in the king george stakes at Ascot and that day he finished behind St Nicholas abbey who was his conquerer at the breeders cup just under 12 months ago. The conditions of todays race are alot more testing underfoot with the forecast ground being heavy and in French racing that is often extreme testing ground. What Sea Moon has in his favour is a liking to get his toe into the surface as he proved when winning his maiden at Yarmouth in Heavy ground, he hasnt contested a race in these condtions since but his best kind of form has been with soft in the going description. Today could represent his best chance in a group 1.

2 - St NIcholas Abbey

A inbetween horse it seems as his best kind of form over 12F has come on tracks that are more sharp and quick then galloping or stiff where as over 10F on galloping flat tracks he has maybe found it a tad too quick. He has put up a decent group 1 win when winning the racingpost trophey as a 2yo and looked a horse of real potential back then, his 3yo campagin came to quick end after the 2000 Guineas and maybe if he had stayed a injury free he would have been a classic win as his form around Epsom is spectacualar even if the quaility of opposition in the Coronation Cup is a little short of top class. Finished in front of Sea Moon in the King George but not certain to confirm that form on ground softer then he would really want as he was very poor the last time he encountered ground as slow as this.

3 - Meandre

Finished behind the Japenese hope Orfevre in a group 2 trail over course and distance and is a regular fixture around here, whether or not he is quite good enough to win a group 1 of this quaility is a question mark but with a few absentees he should be thereabouts at the finish having finished 6th in this event 12 months ago just behind St nicholas Abbey and even though he could reverse that form with the ballydoyle runner he has his work cut out to reverse recent running over C&D given how well that rival quickened to beat him a cozy length, stronger pace could mean he has a better chance but his only times encountering ground as soft as this he has failed to quicken and been very one paced including most recently at a group 3 level.

4 - Mikhail Glinka

Odds suggest he is here to make up the numbers and looking through the majority of his form he is at best a group 3 performer even though his recent german group 3 win didnt take much winning.

5 - Robin Hood

Just like Bullet Train will make hay for his more illustreious stablemates and will set the fractions up front, whether or not he could stick out the trip is to be seen but you would imagine once headed he wont be flogged too hard to be involved as he has only beaten 1 rival in last 4 runs.

6 - Ofevre

Shame there are notable absentees from the Arc Lineup as the Japanesse star task has been made a lot easier then it originally was. Easy winner latest when beating rival Meadre over course and distance he can be rated a fair few lbs better then just the bare form. japan most recent triple crown winner should be there abouts and could well finally win the race for Japan who have gone close in recent years with their star 4yo and have the services of top french jock Christophe Soumillon. Biggest flop since 2yo days was when trying 2M in which he was sent off a warm favourite for he never got into contention and no wonder he has been dropped back to mid distances since, he has handled soft in his career so far but best form does seem to come on much quicker ground then contesting today so there could be reason to take him on with.

7 - Aventino

Pace maker for stable star and likely to set the fractions with robin hood in this event today. Was beaten in trail as used as a pace setter.

8 - Shareta

2nd in this last year at 66-1 she is just below top class even though she has got group 1 success too her name when justy holding on from the fugee at York this season and more recently when winning a group 1 over course and distance in a average looking Qatar Prix Vermaille against her own sex and needs to step up on that form. Her effort in this race last year was a shock as she wasnt fancied and even though that rates as her best form to date she was the best of the rest in the race 12 months ago. She may struggle to reverse form with Meadre who had her measure at Saint cloud even though Shareta had the run of the race out the front. The Neck win in the Yorkshire oaks she outstayed the fugee who is better at 10F at the top level and she looks a class filly if not a world beater and is certainly a game runner in this and handles the ground.

9 - Haya Landa

Well beaten in the september stakes at Kempton on the all weather and while better of turf is very much inferior to the top echelon of this race and will be racing for prize money at most so will be ridden accordingly.

10 - Solemia

Has form that ties in with last years arc runner up Shareta and was no match for that rival in a group 1 latest over course and distance and its a struggle to see how she will reverse that form as she managed to turn that form around earlier in the season over 11F and the fact she is a mudlark given the favourable impression she made Prix Lord Seymour listed stakes which she was a class above those who contested that race and while she is decent on this type of ground she has got to find improvement on her group 1 form to have a say.

11 - Bayrir

Still progressing and won well in amercia back in August in high profile colours of the aga Khan and even though Amercian Group 1 could be regarded as weak at some tracks, once you take into account the travelling etc it was still a promising performance and he is going the right way. A second over C&D in which he found just one too strong in the finish dampens the progression this horse had been showing but you could say he wasnt given too much of a hard time and the pace of the race wasnt the strongest suggesting that a stronger run race such as the arc would improve him. This is his first test at Group 1 level and while he is improving he may well not quite find enough to be involved with the very best as each of his runs havent been in the strongest of races for that level.

12 - Kesampour

Finished behind Bayrir in a trail for this and cut out the slow pace that day in which he only beat one home and that has to go down as dissapoitning given that he had the run of the race from the front and he isnt likely to get that today, hs supporters can draw some hope from that the majority of progression have been under tough going in which he can set slow fractions in and with the ground on the slow side he maybe will be seen to much better effect here, but like Bayrir he does need to improve on his form but return to slow ground could well be the key for this horse.

13 - Camelot

Was Unbeaten until tasting defeat in the st leger in his attempt to become the first colt to win the trile crown since Nijinsky and it was reported that the colt was never travelling after meeting interference early in the race so did very well to finish as close as he did to winner Encke that day. The Derby winner didnt need to be at his best to win the 2000 guineas in which he was the best horse in the race and he did step up on that when a very easy winner at Epsom over 12F with the young jockey so confident that you could have called him the winner 4F from home and you dont get too many classics won in such a easy manor, while you can question the opposstion it is apparent he was a class above them and Ballydoyle had held on to the name camelot for when they had what they see as a frankel type superstar amongst their rank and camelot is that horse. The drop back to 12F should suit and he was a Irish derby winner on heavy ground which didnt take much winning, his class got him home that day and while he hasnt been proven as not enjoying heavy ground he certainly isnt at his best on it and in a race that takes no prisioners there has to be a slight concern but quite a few of the principals are in the same boat.

14 - Masterstroke

Has steadily improved and just picked the pocket of the progressive gatewood last time out over 13F and while the John Gosdon Gatewood is a highly progressive horse he isnt quite top class so in that scalp maybe masterstroke was entitled to beat him with him being placed as one of the more favoured runners for this race from the andre fabre stable. Only 6 runs so far in his short career he has taken a while to pick up a group race and often found one too good, but he may find more improvement the further he goes and with 13F being the pick of his form so far I would quite like to see him progressed to trying one of the cup races next season at York or goodwood as he looks the type to improve further he goes, Strong pace will help his chances in this.

15 - Ernest Hemingway

Just another runner from Ballydoyle and one that has been of the track for sometime after being far too keen at York when beaten by the high profile flop bonfire whose 3yo career was also cut short, that race hasnt worked out well and maybe Ernest Hemigway flopping in it can be excused even though you have to really take a leap of faith that he could muster anything in a rae of thise magintude.

16 - Saonois

7 wins from 13 races he is in his own right a useful horse and quickened well latest of a slow pace to beat Bayrir, whether he can confirm the form it is to be seen as a stronger run race is sure to suit his rival today but he is the one 3yo if you look beyond camelot that comes into this race on top of his game. Kesampour has beaten him under conditions as soft as todays race over 10F and the race was run at a strong pace that day and he could never muster the speed or stamina to mount a challange. He has improved since that day and stepped up in trip but maybe the return to better ground did help him get back on track and the ground has to be a concern as there was no excuses for that effort that day.

17 - Yellow and Green

She is certain to maybe apperciate slower ground today having found herself a little one paced behind Shareta latest over C&D and is going the right way, it would be no surprise to see her involved in the finsh today as this filly by Monsun is going the right way at present and was a easy winner in a group 2 at Saint cloud the time before and was clearly a class above those rivals. She should be helped with the stronger pace today and is held up  to come with a run and even though you dont like to give too much ground away under these conditions she certainly could reverse the form of her last run.

18 - Great Heavens

While Nathaniel has always been the stable great hope, Great Heavens is a filly of great potential and she was a brilliant winner of the Irish Oaks in soft ground in which the further they went the better she was and they went a sound enough gallop throughout the race and the harder they go in this the better she will settle as she does take a keen hold in her races and likes to be kept up to her work. She is certainly the best filly the Uk have to offer in terms of 3yo and she won the lancshire oaks the hard way from the front of the field. She handles soft ground and in some ways this race is the perfect race for her style of running, she holds the best chance of the females in Frances feature race and William Buick will be fresh and ready to go to give her the best chance she deserves.

Verdict - The gloss has been taken of this race but the edition of classic winners Great heavens and Camelot have added some glamour back into the race and they can serve it up to the triple crown winner from Japan Ofereve who holds the hopes of the nation in what has been so many near misses such as the last triple crown winner deep impact who went so close. Sea Moon Has conditions and should give the returning Ryan Moore everychance in this and rates as the best Uk challange from the older brigade in this race. France seem to be lacking in there runners in this race this year and I feel Sir Michael Stoute SEA MOON who finished out of the frame for the first time when sent off favourite for the king george this season (last years clear cut arc winner won the race) can make amends this time around under conditions that should very much suit his prominent grinding style and at 10-1 looks a decent price to do so. Great heavens and japan's big hope are the biggest threat, while Camelot if handling the ground could come into play as his only effort on tough going he was a class above the rest.

Advised bet - SEA MOON 1pt e/w @  10-1 (365)

3.10 Pontefracht Totepool Package handicap 8F Good

1 – Asatir

Won his first 3 races in good fashion including a handicap off the mark of 89 from Razorbill and that effort was bordering on class 2 handicap form on his handicap debut so it is a surprise he didn’t perform better at Glorious Goodwood when well beaten over 10 furlongs and maybe the track didn’t quite suit as he has ran a respectable race since over 10 furlongs on the all-weather. The drop back in trip to a mile should suit him however and if it stays dry he could well bounce back to form having ran well here the time before last in a similar type of race as he is more than capable in this class sphere.

2 – Fire Ship

Was impressive last time out winning by a wide margin in which the conditions underfoot may have helped him to be a clear cut winner that day as the ground was testing underfoot and once he reached the front he was the only horse seeing it out well that day in a decent time for the conditions in which he helped to force the issue. The stiffer track should help him today as he looked like he would get further based on that effort. Clearly he was much too good for class 4 handicapping company at Windsor and he wasn’t disgraced the time before when contesting good ground at Ascot and finishing 2L behind the useful Chill the Kite in a decent looking 3yo handicap, He looks still to have the measure of Ardmay on Newmarket running.

3 – Mabaany

Only having his 3rd run of the season this gelding built on the disappointment of his poor run at Haydock on firm ground with a decent 2nd to trail blaze in a similar type of handicap to which he contests today, this day he was just outstayed over a mile at Thirsk and the stiffer course of pontefracht has to be a concern given that he looked to have failed to see the trip out, however Trail Blaze is thought to want further so given the pace of that race he may have just found a more resolute galloper to pass and is well worth another crack at this trip in this sphere of class, especially with Paul Hannagan returning to the saddle for the ride for his employers.

4 – Rio Grande

Beaten by his elders latest when finding just Jo’burg just too strong at the business end of his race at Redcar, and a return to his age group today should be to his liking today. Previously to the last run he was well beaten on the all-weather when meeting his elders for the first time and that was off the back of a wide margin win in an uncompetitive 3 runner affair on his first attempt over a mile and while it’s not certain he doesn’t stay the trip as he was a decent winner that day his improvement since being stepped up to a mile hasn’t be anything other than ordinary and this is a tougher class of race today.

5 – Satanic beat

Was well beaten over course and distance last time when finishing behind Astair and maybe is in the grip of the handicapper as he was a previous course and distance winner when winning earlier in the season in a class 4 event and maybe the factor of stronger rivals due to his increased mark was a defining factor in the race. Form ties in with Ardmay on Ayr form in what was a class 2 handicap and also on the latest run at Pontefracht in which both flopped over C&D. The form when beating Dubai Dynamo in soft conditions at Ripon reads very well as it was a field full of proven handicappers and with only 5lbs rise in the weights he has to rate as going off the boil with a return to his own age group meaning he has struggled and the suggestion maybe is that a return to soft ground will improve him further.

6 – Dubawi Island

Has improved since switching to artificial surface and breaking his maiden tag at the 4th time of asking, however his handicapping debut suggested that the handicapper has already got his measure with a mark of 85 allotted to him, the return to turf needs to bring improvement for him to be involved in the finish. Martin Dwyer is back in the saddle and that can only be a bonus but others look to have more on offer on the book even though he is entitled to improve.

7 – Ardmay

Won at Ayr beating Satanic beat in a class 2 event that was more class 2 in name rather than quality and the time before that he proved to be much too good for class 4 company when winning at Haydock and he does seem to enjoy performing at these flat galloping type of tracks and he did start to struggle after that when tried over stiffer tracks and while it could have been the type of tracks it could be more down to his in ability to handle ground that has firm in the description. The Newmarket run behind Fire Ship he wasn’t disgraced in a decent class 2 and maybe just found a couple better handicapped in the conditions and he failed to see the trip out as well as those rivals, the ground shouldn’t be as quick as at Pontefracht last time and a better effort is expected under Amy Ryan today.

8 – Lady Macduff

Returned to some form last time out over 9F at Epsom after back to back poor performances at Ascot and York in some decent races and she is a but hit and miss on the overall profile and she was a decent winner of a fillies handicap at Haydock earlier in the season, the return of Joe Fanning to the saddle draws some hope for a big show by her and the ground isn’t likely to be on the fast side today which also seems to help her, she is often raced with the pace and this track can play strength to those racing up with the pace.

9 – boots and spurs

Won nicely in the mud at Carlisle and enjoys a stiff mile under testing conditions so he has one part in this today that will suit, whether or not if he is good enough is to be seen as his best form has come at a much lower level then this handicap today. Raised 6lbs for that win last time I  see him finding easier tasks then this to continue his progression with better ground not likely to suit as much as the heavy going did last time out.

10 – Hi There

Impressive winner last time out at Beverley in which they went a good clip and he stayed on really well to land the 7.5F race there and there could be more to come now he is back upped to class 3 level having previously ran well at Newmarket in this sphere of class. The trip isn’t a problem for him having looked like the extra half furlong would suit while the drying ground is in his favour too and he should be thereabouts if he was to give his running.

Tissue – Mabaany 3-1, Astair 7-2, Hi There 9-2, Rio Grande 8/1, Lady Macduff 9/1, Fire Ship 10/1, Dubawi sound, Boots and spurs 12/1, Satanic Beat 16/1, Ardmay 16/1

Verdict – Mabaany looks like he has a good chance here under Paul Hanagan and William Hagga Gelding and benefit from an easy season to date to run a big race, however at the prices I am prepared to give ASTAIR a chance at the early price of 10-1 with VC bet as he has a better chance than his odds suggest back on turf over a mile at this level. Hi There is respected with the ground drying out.

Advised bet – ASTAIR 1pt e/w @ 10-1

Was looking forward to reading your Ces preview?

3.15 Nottingham 10F Handicap Soft ground Class 3


1.    Stand to Reason – Best form this season has come under a soft surface and the return to those conditions today should help his chances under top weights and his effort at the Chester cup meeting still reads out his best chance today and with the stamina test at Nottingham today likely to reflect that kind of test today even though slightly stiffer he should give his running and I believe under these conditions he can run to a 100 mark which is 6lbs higher than his current mark off 94 which he went well of in the John Smith Cup at York, the more recent effort at York over 12F can be forgiven as that with the Ascot run suggested he doesn’t stay the trip.

2.    Sirvino – Ran a massive race at York Dante meeting behind Gatewood of John Gosdon who has franked the form since in rapid improving form and that effort sticks out on the formbook for this even though the conditions underfoot are likely to put more emphasis on stamina even though the 0.5F trip less than that day will counter that so you would imagine a similar test of stamina should be had today. The more recent runs he has shown up well on soft ground including on good to soft ground at Ascot when he tried to give lumps of weight away and wasn’t disgraced in a small runner affair at Pontefracht but they are a bit below the York run and maybe a return to an easier speedier track such as Nottingham can see him perform back to that Dante meeting run which I have him as running to a mark of 101 if reproducing that level of form, leaving him 9lbs well in at the weights before you even take into consideration the claimers claim, but the more recent form has him only 2lbs in hand, so it has to be considered into the price for this.


3.    Las verglas Star – Comes here in form having beaten Sirvino latest at Pontefracht and based on the Ascot form from earlier on in the season he was entitled to confirm that form as it stands out as strong form as well. The sharper performance at Goodwood he stayed on well and the Pontefracht win was deserved on his efforts at those two venues. Amy Ryan takes the ride today and based on the Pontefracht performance I see him running to a mark of 93 based on that and that is only 2lbs higher than his mark so he could struggle to confirm the form for a 3rd time with Sirvino who has a stronger piece of form on the book this season to call upon and he also has ground to make up on stand to reason on Chester form back in June.

4.    Rock a Doodle Doo – Would have a chance if reproducing his all-weather run at Kempton that was over 12F over this short trip on turf and that can’t be certain to happen. He maybe is best judged on his Windsor effort over 11.5F in which he was well beaten and I have him running 8lbs below his mark today based on that effort. The conditions are against what he has performed the best under today and a return to that surface is best waited with.

5.    First Mohican – Returned to the track in sparkling fashion at Redcar in which he won going away after maybe being a little rusty from lack of racing and under similar conditions he should go well again with the improvement still open, but there is the bounce factor to consider as he is turned out quickly here today but he is 7lbs in front of the handicapper on racing post rating which looks about right on the effort he put up(4th went close on Monday).

6.    Mawaakef – Lost his way since being the only one to challenge Highland Knight at the Derby meeting and now stepped back up in to territory he failed to beat many rivals home on his past tries over this far and could be out to be dropped a few more lbs by the handicapper. The Epsom form does standout as his best piece of form but all his form falls short of this test of stamina this season and maybe the Sailsbury form is best to judge his chances on in terms of toughest tests of stamina he has had on his more recent form and he falls over 12lbs short of his mark by my reckoning, so be a surprise if he is able to outstay these today.

7.    Sandusky -  The runs at the July Course and York throughout the summer has to give some concerns towards the chances of Mahmood Al Zarooni runner here today as they have some liking to today’s race, however the tougher conditions underfoot may well bring him back to his best as the Goodwood 11F effort under soft ground was a solid piece of handicapping and that coupled in with the return to form on the all-weather last time out would give him hope as I have him down as running  to 91 based on that Goodwood effort which would have him amongst the principals in this off a mark of 88. He should be sticking on towards the business end.

8.    Art Scholar – Won an easier task over course and distance latest and has turned out to be a solid handicapper this season and even though he doesn’t have the services of Tom Quelly for this handicap today who gets on well with him he still has a chance based on that effort and a reproduction of that effort would see him running to around to a mark in the early 90’s which will be needed to get placed in this event today and while he is in form he could well do that, even though really soft ground could stretch his stamina as proved when failing to stay over 14.5F of Doncaster earlier in the season.

9.    Bollin Greta – been campaigned over further this season and hasn’t run over a trip as sharp as this since 2008. Could be interesting if brought out again over further before the season is out but this looks a tough ask being dropped back in trip for such a tough race.

10.    Kalk Bay – Tailed off latest at Pontefracht under not to dissimilar conditions to which he will be encountering today and maybe the stiff track with the ground just undone him that day and maybe will be better returning to a less stiff track that encounters today as the 2nd to Dandana has him still well handicapped and that effort was over ½ Furlong further in a competitive handicap and if the ground was to dry out he would look well handicapped with around 5-6lbs in hand, he has got winning form on soft ground but the Pontefracht performance was maybe too bad to be true and reservations have to be made.

11.    Brunston – Showed little at Epsom after a spell over the jumps and should be avoided until showing more as his jumps form showed little signs of life in him.

12.    Demolition – Does handle some give in the ground and is ideally suited to 10F as a trip and ran well in defeat to universal latest at Ripon as that unexposed rival made light work of his lenient handicap mark. Looks just a shade in the grip of the handicapper on that level and others are maybe better handicapped for this, but any encouragement from this run should be noted for further betting proposition.

13.    Hung Parliament – Has struggled over similar tests of stamina as today and best form was on the all-weather over a mile, this could well be a prep for a winter campaign back on that surface as his turf form has been nothing but a struggle since 2yo days.

14.    Ellemujie – Likely non-runner if his recent performances are anything to base his chances on as 4 runs at Kempton and two top of the ground efforts on turf make up his last six runs and while he is well handicapped on the 10F effort he put up last December the ground this year has really gone against him and looks all set to make hay on the all-weather throughout the winter month as a well handicapped 7yo.

15.    Swnymor – Has been contesting stiffer tests of stamina then he is likely to be contesting today but the recent effort at Chester proved that the drop back in trip was to his  liking as he finished a short head 2nd in a tight finish and just failed that day and based on that performance I make him just about handicapped right and should give his running again, but looks to need improvement against those that maybe are just better handicapped, but no reason why he can’t improve being unexposed over the trip.

16.    Barren brook – Paul Mulrennen maybe has made the right choice of spitting Mick Easterby pair as Barren Brook can be deemed as well handicapped based on his run at Ripon behind Voodoo Prince and has a considerable swing in the weights with First Mohician after a poor effort against that rival at Redcar and while it may well be hard to see how he can reverse that most recent performance the change in jockey suggest they hope for a better showing today. The ground is plenty soft enough and the Ripon 2nd he was pushed along early before rattling home from the rear, but he seemed to handle the going and has to be considered as that performance puts him 5lbs in hand from this mark.

Verdict – Looks Competitive on paper and a lot will depend on First Mohican who was so impressive last time out but this may come too soon after a long absence and therefore plenty of value could be had. Both the Mick Easterby pair makes appeal at big prices but both may want better ground and Barren Brook is most probably the best bet for that stable to run a big race. The top of the weights both Stand to reason and Sirvino have chances while Sandusky & Art Scholar both have claims as well. A chance is taken with SIRVINO to show the performance he showed at the Dante meeting back in May with the ground not being an issue based on other pieces of form.

Advised bet – Sirvino 2pts e/w @ 12-1

Trusty was away for the weekend. sorry

8.00 Kempton Division 1 12F Handicap Standard class 4


1.    Aazif has improved his form steadily on turf and makes the switch to the all-weather tonight to which his connections will hope that he improves on as he has to concede weight all-round. However his best two pieces of form was over 12F and even though he ran with credit over 14F on firm going last time out at Haydock, the reverting to 12F is sure to help his claims and by my calculations he has a couple of lbs in hand on his current mark if able to carry his turf form on to the artificial surface.

2.    Arch Villain is one of the more exposed 3yo in this handicap and may struggle against the less exposed types in the race and takes a drop back in trip to 12F here as he has been running over further more recently, his form seemed to have improved for further trip but he ran creditable efforts over 12F at the July course and also over C&D but he needs to improve on those efforts to win of this mark and others look better handicapped but he does have plenty in his favour as he is proven on conditions.

3.    Star for Life steps into handicap company for the first time after contesting 4 maidens with limited success and his best effort came on the soft ground of Chester round course over 10.5F and he looked like having a race in him, however the step up to 12F on his last two runs in maiden company have been poor efforts with the Haydock run on quick ground a big disappointment at a favoured price and then on the all-weather at Wolverhampton over 12F next time out.  His handicap mark of 80 looks much too higher on those 12F based efforts and while the conditions at Chester put more emphasis on stamina then the shorter 10.5F trip he contested he does look like an easier test of stamina may well be more to his liking.

4.    Infinite Hope Has had one run over 12F when following up his maiden win at Folkestone with a step up in trip into handicap company at the same venue next time out and the more stiffer 12F he contest today could well improve him as the handicapper hasn’t given him much to work with based on that handicapping debut. The breeding suggest that a drop back in trip would be a better bet than a increase on the stamina key to which he contests today and his debut at Goodwood over 9F seems to play to that theory and he needs to find improvement to have a say in this event I feel.

5.    Cape Savannah has had more runs than most of the field but is another like arch villain who is at least proven on the surface and with that has claims. He looks better handicapped then that rival based on his recent efforts at Sailsbury and over 13.5F of Wolverhampton and both of those efforts reflect what is needed in this handicap today. The runs at the July course and more recently at haydock over 14F in the mud can be ignored as he didn’t see the trip out on both occasions and looks tailored made for this 12F test as he ran such a big race when 4th to Willie Wag tail in a similar type of race back in June and with a return to the scene of that effort he could well be nicely handicapped for this based on that performance.

6.    Mawhub finished last on handicap debut over 10F on the all-weather and that was his first effort on the artificial surface after making a favourable impression on turf at Newmarket on both occasions in his maidens. He never figured at Lingfield always being in the rear of  a moderate gallop. Strong connections suggest they do feel the surface will suit and the extra trip and change of track could well help his chances, but the lingfield run was too bad to be too optimistic and he may well be best watched.

7.    Shetheman is potentially very well treated for this handicap based on her effort last time out over course and distance when tackling this trip for the first time, having previously ran well over 8.5F at Wolverhampton and 10F of Brighton and Newbury more recently. The Kempton performance last time is the race to best judge him on as the conditions of this race will be very similar to those and she could well improve over the trip as it is only her second run and she looks the one they have to beat here tonight.

8.    Dedication has only had a handful of runs so far and she improved when returning this season over these middle distances and she needs to find more then she showed on handicap debut over course and distance latest. She is open to improvement but she didn’t seem to last the 12F out and quite possibly is better over the 11F she won her maiden at this venue. She has strong connections and there is hope she will improve on that original 12F effort as she is so lightly raced but she has it all to prove.

9.    Dandy was given a mark of 85 for his maiden win and has struggled to run with any credit since stepping into Handicap Company and the last effort at Goodwood he failed to feature in the finish having shown up quite well for the majority of the trip. Hope is drawn from the change in surface and the extra trip but not much hope is drawn from that on breeding.

10.    Cellist has the services of Fallon for this tonight and has some decent efforts on the all-weather to draw some hope from. Finished behind Arch Villain over 2M here but this is a lot sharper than that day and he is also better off at the weights for this as well. His 12F form is ok considering the Ripon performance would have him as handicapped around the right mark, but he was massively impressive when romping home in his maiden over 12F at Wolverhampton and the reverting to this surface is sure to help him based on that and he should be on the premises in this company I feel.

11.    Kelpie Blitz is a regular at Brighton and maybe takes this as a target with the weather hitting that track. Form on the all-weather, but all looks moderate and the first attempt at a trip this far isn’t certain to suit as he went from travelling well on this surface to finding very little when contesting an 11F event here back in May. Needs to prove stamina but is at least in form.

My Tissue – Shestheman 4-1, Cape Savannah 5-1, Aazif 13-2, Cellist 7-1, Arch Villian 10-1 12-1 BAR

Verdict – Shestheman looks the one they have to beat in this handicap having performed so well last time out over course and distance and should be placed in this event as there is sure to be more to come, however CAPE SAVANNAH looks a shade overpriced at a best priced 10-1 for this having proven to hold form in a similar type of event and while he may not have performed quite as well since, he has proven to hold that sort of performances on a couple of other occasions under not dissimilar types on races stamina wise. Aazif and Cellist are the next pair on the shortlist and should figure.

Advised bet – Cape Savannah 1pt e/w @ 10-1 (365)

3.20 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Class 2 3M Good to soft

Start of the jump season for myself as we set upon the first day of the new season at national Hunt HQ Cheltenham and this Pertemps network handicap hurdle looks a competitive affair with the usual 20 runner field and some of these will make it through the season to the show piece in March.

A handful of these will be suited to the 3M that take some getting on this type of ground and you never know one could well turn out to be the winner come March as the ground may well reflect the spring ground they will be contesting come March. The best place to start is with the Irish raider of Tom Taffe that lines upon a hat-rick bid having one back to back staying handicap hurdles in his native Ireland and the most recent a ultra-competitive affair at Gowran Park in which he stayed on strongly to win maybe a shade cosy. The handicapper hasn’t missed this fact and has risen him 10lbs in the weights for that win, the fact this is tougher means he doesn’t get over burden with too much weight to carry on his attempt over a stiffer test of stamina, there is every reason why he should give his running in this and should be thereabouts and the 4-1 on offer reflects that.

Action Master is another from Ireland that has claims in this handicap and ran a ok prep for this last time out on the flat and the return to jumping he should be cherry ripe for this test of stamina, the Galway effort took some getting and that effort stacks up well and any give in the ground will really help his chances in this and at 20-1 there is some each-way value on offer to his chances as well. Sir Kezbaah had problems last season and never really ran his race at Huntingdon, Cheltenham and Newbury last season and maybe struggled with the handicapper, however his class 2 effort from April 2011 still stacks up well under Good ground and a return too that effort he should have a say even though this is most probably a little bit more competitive in terms of numbers.

Cross Kennon ran well in Grade 2 at Haydock earlier in the year but should have performed much better when contesting the Swinton hurdle and is likely to find it tough again to concede weight all-round again here today. American Spin beat Howizee in a close finish and the weights favour Howizee this time around even though it’s only 1lb difference and this more testing track I feel will help American Spin confirm form with Howizee. Viking Blond could be a well handicapped horse to keep on the right side of this season, while Raslan & Sivola De Sivola both have claims in this as well, the latter put up an impressive performance last season in one of these when winning at Newbury in decent fashion and based on that effort looks set to run a big race here, The form also ties in with Fox Appeal in the Albert & Bartlett novice hurdle in which his effort was very disappointing and maybe he should have contested the pertemps handicap hurdle with hindsight but maybe he will make amends this time around and he looks to hold the best chance of the UK challenge in this.

Tissue – Heany 7-2, Action Master 8-1, Sivola De Sivola 9-1, American Spin 10-1, Viking Blond 12-1 14-1BAR

Advised Selection – Action Master 1pt e/w @ 20-1

W/D Sir WC

WD Well Chief -


Quality, pleased for you to nail a proper one [20/1]

WD WC
Wish i'd seen it earlier

Look forward to your write ups now the proper stuff has arrived

2.30 Cheltenham VCBET handicap Chase 20F G/S 20 Runners

A very open competitive handicap on the card and one that will throw up a few winners through out the season and some of these will be contesting the plate and William Hill Handicaps come March so it should be informative for the festival as well as being a potential for a priced winner.

That’ll doboy could well give Paul Nichols a winning Saturday to keep his dominance of the trainer championship up and this 2nd season chaser progressed nicely in novice handicaps last season and would have won a big handicap towards the end of the season if his jumping held out and he is certainly well handicapped on the fact he would have been penalized a lot more if managing to stand up at Kempton and here as well on his last two starts, however he has a low weight for this and the trainer is sure to have him ready to go first time up in the one man colours and no surprise to see him around 5-1 for this as he is effective under these conditions and trip and if he stands up he will be there at the finish.


The Ultra Consistent Bobowen is sure to go well as he comes here in the form of his life and has the services of Barry Gerghaty for the doctor and despite the 5lbs rise in the weights for the close 2nd at market Rasen in a recent listed handicap in which he had Idarah and Rebel Du Marquis even further back in the field and while he should confirm the form the Paul Nichols Rebel Du Marquis who was favourite for that event is sure to come on again for that outing and on the Stratford run over 21.5F he has the ability to perform off a mark as high as this and could go well for the 7lbs claimer Harry Derham, Kauto Relko was in the process of running a big race when Paddy Brennan lost his irons and then parted company at the last, he would have been close to Bobowen that day and can be regarded as one that goes without any penalty and could go close.

Triangular failed to complete in the Topham chase at the Grand National Meeting and maybe can be given another chance based on the Newbury performance the time before in which he skipped clear in very fetching fashion to score by a comfortable 4.5L from Dom D’Orgeveal and has one of these handicaps in him this season based on that evidence and even though he was raised 12lbs for that success he should give a solid account of himself in this if taking to the track. Divers is one that likes this track and will run his usual race around here, the services of choc Thornton is eye catching as he is one of the best around this track and Ferdy Murphy knows what it takes to win these types of handicaps at Cheltenham. Mad Moose won nicely here in April but meets those that finished in front of him at the festival wrong at the weights and would be a surprise if he will find enough to reverse the form with those that finished in front of him.

The Irish Challenge looks like it could come from Campbonnis at a big price and Jamesie Hall based on the Limerick in the Galway Plate Trail handicap back in the summer and Jamesie hall came out on top that day, however the weights favour Campbonnais today, however Paul Carberry takes the ride on Jamesie Hall who confirmed form over 3M in the mud more recently when finishing a close up 4th and the form of that race has been well held up with the performances of those placed in the Munster National recently and Jamesie Hall should go well under this test of stamina with the perfect styled jockey for his running style on board and could go very close in this ultra-competitive affair.

Tissue – That’lldo boy 5-1, Triangular 7-1, Jamesie Hall 15-2, Bobowen, Rebel Du Mariqus 10/1, Kelto Relko 12/1, Divers 14/1, Mad Moose, Easter Meteor 16/1 Idarah 20/1 22/1BAR

Advised Bet – Jamsie Hall 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (VC)

1.45 Ascot Qipco champions long distance cup Group 3 2M Heavy

With Ground very different too this race last year in which Fame & glory beat those that finished in front at this years Royal Ascot meeting it may well be wise to not draw too much conclusion to that piece of course form and this years Ascot Gold cup that would be a stronger test of stamina (needed today) due to the increased trip isn’t also a comparable race as the pace was sluggish throughout that contest.

The Staying division is crying out for a top notch stayer as those that have won the group races this season have managed to beat each other throughout the campaign and maybe the best clue for this race may well lie with those that haven’t been contesting the group races and Il De Re of Donald McCain can build on the success he has made for himself on the flat but running a big race in this staying event. The conditions underfoot are likely to be ideal for him and unlike rite of Passage who is another to consider he has at least got the recent form to be of an interest without knowing to much what has gone on behind the scenes with Dermott Welds Ascot Gold cup winner from 2011 (510 Absence to overcome).

Il De Re won the chester cup from a tape start and then did what his stablemate and champion hurdle runner-up overturn could not do and that was lead a field of handicappers home in front in the Northunberland plate, now the magnitude of that form can be questioned by those who didn’t get beaten far being nothing more than run of the mil handicappers but this isn’t a race full of superstar stayers and it won’t take much improvement in these conditions for il De Re to come out on top in. Rite to Passage loves these condition’s when beating a competitive field of handicappers in Ireland November handicap prior to winning the Ascot Gold Cup, he really liked the ground that day and if fit and well could well be the one too beat in these conditions.

Colour Vision and Saddlers Rock had hard races in France at the Arc Meeting in what was heavy ground that day and ran below their bests, they proved that the ground isn’t ideal for them that day at the top level, while Opinion Poll would take all the beating if the ground wasn’t so desperate underfoot. Asker Tau is respected on his effort in the coral marathon earlier on in the season but is another that prefers better ground and Electrolyser seems to be best caught when given 14F races. Aiken beat Fame & glory recently but needs to prove he stays the trip, he is another who will like the ground.

Tissue – Il de Re 4-1, Aiken 5-1, Opinion Poll 5-1, Rite of Passage 6-1, Colour Vision, fame & Glory 8-1, 9-1BAR
Advised Bet – Il De re2pt e/w @ 7-1 (billys)

4.50 Pontefracht 10F Soft Class 4 Handicap

A tough test of stamina is on the cards in this middle distance race as the conditions are tough underfoot and pontefracht is a course where you need to see out every inch as you never really get too many wide distance winners at this track. The horse that catches my eye for a bet today is MAYBEAGRAY at the foot of the weights which will be a added bonus in these conditions. Well drawn on the inside she should get a good posiiton to make a claim in this providing she doesnt meet too much trouble from her midfield position. She stays further then the 10F she contests today having won a class 5 handicap from the foot of the weights back in July at this very track.

The fact that David Allan isnt on board shouldnt be taken as Tim Easterby charge has little hope in this handicap as I am unsure if he can do the feather weight needed. The booking of young James Sullivan is a decent one as he has come on well this season and is more then capable of winning handicaps now his allowance has gone. This 3yo is a proven stayer in these conditions and enjoys the track, she has plenty in her favour where others dont and looks a tad overpriced at 22-1 for this. others that made my shortlist was Carragold and Kathlen Francs who finished behind the progressive First Mohician last time and that form looks solid, they should run their races as well, while Tartan Gigha is another who should get the trip.

Advised bet - MAYBEAGREY 1pt e/w @ 22-1 (Billys)

Unlucky WC, ran into one!

Didnt it just Stewart rise. That winner certainly enjoyed testing condiitons, could well be a class 2 handicap winner in waiting if paired on the right ground, won round ponte in tough going barely had to be move did Graham Lee, my selection finished a clear 2nd, but the winner was impressive.

4.10 Exeter Haldon Handicap chase class 4 19.5F GS

This small field handicap doesnt look to tough event as many have question marks over them as they arent the classiest bunch of chasers you are likely to see and I am drawing hope that Black Phantom can produce a better round of jumping then when last seen over fences when with Andy Turnell.

Now with a small yard in which the hope he has been schooled intensley to iron out the problems he has had with his jumping, he looks to have been found a perfect little handicap to get his head back in front as he has a decent record fresh in the past and has the continued services of Nick Schofield for his new trainer. The ground on his last run at Ffos lass may have been too testing underfoot but he does handle some give in the ground as proven when winning at Chepstow back in 2010.

A winner at the track when beating the likes of Roalco De Farges and Pepporoni Pete by 20L over 19F and hurdles proves he has ability and providing he jumps better he should be competitive off a mark of 105. At 13-2 he looks a shade overpriced and believe he still retains the ability to take a class 4 handicap.

Advised bet - Black Phantom 1pt e/w @ 13-2 (PP)

GL...according to the post he has only had the horse 6 days, so doubt he will have done much in that time.

Your analysis is getting less convoluted and your results are getting better

15.15 Doncaster Racingpost Betting shop Manager of the year Handicap 6F Soft

After going through this race I am prepared to give Charlie Hills talented sprinter Shropshire another go over this 6F test in a big field as he looks like he is more then capable to win another sprint handicap this season having managed only one win on turf this season when winning at Ascot in a 9 runner affair from the useful bench mark Macs Power and that day the ground was on the soft side if not quite as testing as it is likely to be today.

However I am not unsure that better ground is need for him despite his decent 2L defeat in the stewards cup in which he was far from digraced in a bunch finish behind Hawkeyethenoo. The Ayr Gold Cup run i feel was long enough ago for him too have recovered from those serve conditons underfoot in which the winner was a horse that had done all its winning in keenly contested 7F event which suggested stamina was well needed that day. There will be some need to be able to see out the trip here today but with a sunny day forecasted I'd be surprised if the ground will be as soft as it was that day. Looking through his form he was impressive when winning on good to soft ground on his race course debut, he also was 3rd to Frankel and Excelebration in the Greenham stakes at the start of 2011, however you cant really judge him by that piece of form. He most probably is best judged on his form this season under conditions with soft in the title so the Newmarket guineas meeting sprint handicap sticks out as a strong piece of form as he finished 2nd to the very talented champion sprinter Maarek, he may well struggle to confirm form with Colnel mak based on the weights from that day and that rival is a CD winner too boot, however Shropshire has progressed this season and can confirm the running here despite the weight swing in the favor of the Baron runner.

Matthew Lawson gets on well with this horse and takes him below the 9 stone mark for weight carried which has been a key to this handicap in its short history. Khubala & Prodgaillity both have solid claims and should go well but 5-1 & 7-2 in a handicap such as this doesnt look a viable bet, while Farlow has solid course form and is a threat and trade secret could well perform much better then he has done recently, but he isnt one too have to much faith in with back problems in his recent history.

Bet - Shropshire 1pt e/w @ 20-1 (PP)

13.30 Newcastle Class 2 Handicap Chase 3M GS

Fresh new ground at Newcastle for this chase and it is unlikely to be too soft underfoot. A nice round 8 go to post in which 3 are out of the handicap with the addition of Benny Be Good in the field and while there is everychance that Benny Be good has been found a nice easy task to get his head in front, I prefer to chance my arm further down the weights with a eye catching low weighted runner in this event.

With some doubts over a few of these (poker de sivola for one) I will take the 16-1 on offer on course specialist Lockstown who comes back this season of the back of a trio of poor runs to finish the season off last term. However he is a different proposition around here and with the ground likely to not be as tough underfoot as those trio of runs I can see there reason to believe he can turn things around at gosforth park. The last of his 3 wins at this track was over course and distance on good ground off a mark of 107, however he is higher in the handicap but only has 10 stones to carry due to those he race against. The hope is that Wilson Renwick has been doing the hours in the steam room to get his racing weight down too his lowest racing weight in the last 12 months. 3 of his 4 chase wins has come at this track and at the odds he is worth ago as he looks the best of the 3 out of the weights around here. Poker De Sivola there is the absence and the trip that are question marks, while Wymott is in a similiar boat to the selection as he finished the season in poor form yet is challanging favoutisim. Lackamon is a big danger and benny be good is solid but overall I am prepare to take the 16-1 on offer for Lockstown to continue his decent course form.

Bet - Lockstown 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (365)

2.25 Aintree Sports Veteran Mobile Handicap Class 2 25F Good

4 make the shortlist in this handicap.

Mumbles Head (13/2 @ PP) - Backed this last season in a vets race at Doncaster and got no sort of run for my money, however since that day he has bounced back to some form with a fruitful summer under his belt and his runs at both Perth and Market Rasen were fetching efforts and whilst the ground was on the soft side on those occassions, he has also recorded a win on good ground when winning at Perth as well throughout the summer so the ground shouldnt end his chances and his absence is lesser then many of these as his last run was back in July. The main concern has to be the absence of Tom O'Brien in the saddle as the pairing had struck up a decent partnership this summer, even though Jamie Moore is more then able.

Garleton (7/1 @ PP) - Last seen back in May when hacking up off a mark of 140 that day in which he never saw another rival and that was off the back of a fair effort in the Scottish National behind Ayr Specialist Merigo. The Aintree (may 11) and Wetherby runs showed that todays test is very much to his liking and he should have everything in place for big run providing that he is fit to do himself justice at the first time of asking, but he has gone well after a break before so should be very hopeful that a performance can be had today and the ground is ideal for him unlike maybe with Mumble Head who is at his best with some juice in the ground.

Nikola (5/1 @ 365) - Loves it here and won this 12 months ago and also finished in front of Mumbles head in that Doncaster race eluded to under that rival so there is everychance that he will confirm running as he goes well fresh as proving 12 months ago. Lowed 8lbs after his effort in the Topham chase over the big fences he comes into this very much well handicapped as he is 6lbs lower then the mark he scored off last term. That day he carried 10stone 11lbs so the fact he has to carry 10 stone this time around just proves that it is a stronger race this time around, but he counters that with the feather weight and should make his presence at least noted in this handicap and the books havent taken too much of a chance with him here at best price 5-1

Fabalu (5/1 @ PP) - Can be a bit hit and miss but did account for Nikola at Ascot when being beaten by Kingston Combe and then at least finished when tackling the topham chase here over the bigger fences. Jason Maguire gets on well with him and with the ground likely to be good racing ground there is every chance that he will be on top of his form here today as his only blemish apart from the Topham chase since stepping into handicap company has come when tackling soft racing ground. The Ascot run was probably his best effort to date and he is only 4lbs higher then that mark so he should still be within the sphere too land a handicap and he should go close.

Verdict - looking at the prices and how I would judge their pieces of form in comparison to their chances under these conditions I would say that GARLETON is the choice in preference to Mumbles Head who if there was more cut in the ground would have been the value in the race at 13-2, but with a dry day forecasted and the likely hood of him being fit enough to do himself justice at the first time of asking I will side with the Maurice Barnes runner.

Advised bet - Garelton 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (PP)

3.30 Aintree Old Roan chase Grade 2 Limited Handicap

5 make the shortlist in this decent looking grade 2 handicap.

For Non Stop (11/2 @ Lads) - 2nd season chaser that most probably doesnt get the hype he actually deserves due to the connections in comparison to the novices last season that was more hyped, yet he is a decent horse in his own right and should enjoy this 20 furlong test on good ground and the stronger the gallop the more he will come into his own having ran with credit behind the Gold cup favourite Sir Des Champs at the festival last season as he finished best of the rest behind that potential superstar and cheltenham specialist Champion Court. Flat track should suit even though at newbury it did take him a bit longer to put the race to bed then expected but he does have a nice racing weight for Noel Fehilly to run him off.

Pacha Du Polder (9/2 @ PP) - Trainer Paul Nichols has only won this race once in the past 10 runnings and has had some notable failures in the race, however his 2nd season novice looks to build on the way he finished his novice campagin off with a win in a notable race such as this having dodged the main novice races after flopping and he needs to improve on the ayr novice performance in which he was so impressive. That was a lot easier then the time before when he was no match for for Non Stop and the hope will be that he has improved as many of the trainers do for a summer since their novice days. the fact he only recieves 1lb makes it tougher for him on terms with For Non Stop but better is expected this season and you cant totally discount there being improvement.

Gauvain (7/1 @ LAds) - Often best caught in the early part of the season he was mightly impressive when winning the peterbrough chase from Somersby by 4L last season and that piece of form has him as a potential bet for this task first time up as he is very much a autumn horse on the best of his form. The weight concession makes his task much harder but he is very talented, however it is interesting to see Noel Fehilly place his faith in the more progressive profiled horse even though Jason Maguire isnt a bad replacement in the saddle. Now with Philip Hobbs after leaving Nick Williams yard.

Wishfull Thinking (7/1 @ General) - On His day he is very good and ran a massive race here back at the grand national meeting as finans Rainbow really proved himself to be top class that day so to run a runner-up to that horse isnt bad form even though he was beaten 7L at the finish he travelled with a liking for 20F around this track that speed and stamina is needed and there can be faith drawn from that run to hope that he is with in a chance he retains his ability as he never really has gone on from his novice days and can be quite headstrong so it be interesting to see what Wishfall thinking turns up today.

Noble Prince (11/2 @ Billys) - Has a chance given that he was a impressive winner at the festival back in 2011 when romping up the hill to beat Wishfull thinking in what many at the time throught was the pick of the novice form from that year and he started to show some pieces of form earlier in the year in his native ireland, However his performance in the Ryanair left much to think about and while he should make this shortlist in a grade 2 handicap carrying only 11 stong 4lbs in comparison to Wishfull thinking you have to take it on trust that he is retainning his ability and maybe 11-2 could be deemed as the books not taking a chance on him in this.

Verdict - Noble Prince could well be back to his best and if that is the case he really has to be the one to beat, but that is a big if and in my mind 11-2 is a bit short at the prices in comparison to the others. Gauvain may turn out to be the best of those prove, but you do have to think Noel Fehilly had the choice of rides in this and the 2nd season chaser for non stop looks to be a horse that can build on his cheltenham 3rd in the Jewson novice hurlde to Sir Des Champs and can confirm the form with Paul Nichols Pacha du Polder who has his stiffish task since failing to live with the upper echelon of Novices at Newbury.

Advised bet - For Non Stop 2pts e/w @ 11-2

3.45 Bathwick tyres Handicap Class 2 10F Heavy

This handicap is likely to be a slog in the mud and several still make appeal in what is a tricky handicap but one where I can see some value in the race. The market leaders have to prove themselves effective under the conditions and it may well pay to go for a bit of a longer shot.

Blue Surf & Little Rocky make appeal of those towards the front of the market and the former could still be improving for amanda Perrert who often aims a improver at this type of race and is sure to go well. Tameen at a big price showed up better then his odds suggest in the John Smith cup which has had little form franked from but could run a big race. mark Johnston Licence to Til is a solid horse that enjoys to get his toe in based on this season form in which he has constantly been on the go and is having his 23rd run of the calander year and if it wasnt for the fact he is trained by Mark Johnston I would swerve him altogether. however Mark Johnston is a master at keeping them ticking over and this could well be one last hurrah for the season for this horse that ran a fair race over course and distance two runs back when finishing best of those that was ridden aggressivly as many came of the pace that day, he followed it up with a fair effort over 9F in the cambridgeshire and needs further then that trip to be at his best so a return to this trip and ground should suit, plus Joe Fanning is on board for quite a while and has recorded both his wins this season so I can see a big run on the cards at 16-1, which given his Chester form over 10.5F in which he had las verglas star beaten in behind reads well.

Las verglas Star is another that could go better then his odds suggest and has been a model of consistency. The Lightly weighted Tigers tale is another that could go better then his 20-1 odds suggest as he was so impressive over a mile at this track on handicap debut and has shaped with promise on both his starts over 10F, he likes the ground and could go well but for the selection I will give Licence to til ago at a nice 16-1 on offer with a few bookmakers.

Advised bet - Licence to til 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (Lads)

great shout on for non stop chief. wins easy. cheers :)

2.10 Leicester sis live handicap class 2 1M soft 7 runners

Shamaal nibras could well improve to take this well and there is quite a bit to like about the Hannon runners chances, however at 2-1 I am prepared to bet against him here in the mud with Alantic Sport for the inform Channon yard as even though he is yet to win over a mile, there has been a couple of runs this season to which he looks like he could well land a small field race on soft ground.

The run at Royal Ascot behind eton forever I consider as proving he can go close in todays contest as the ground was testing on a track that takes some getting the trip on, also the field was much bigger then todays race and he stuck on well suggesting that todays mile trip is attainable. He is also fairly weighted for this with martin Harley in the saddle who has ridden him for his best runs this season, a winner in the mud at haydock earlier in the season against proven handicappers show that he should have another affair at this level against similiar opponents in him and at 7-1 he looks the best bet at the prices. Toto Skyllachy should go well but looks handicapped up to his best and weapon of choice is the other i considered.

advised bet - Atlantic sport 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (spoils bog)

As good as you will find , well done

2.20 Catterick 7F Soft Handicap 9 Runners


1.    Dubai Hills – Has got only two qualifying runs this season to defy his chances and is a little hit and miss. His best piece of form has to be his effort over 7F on the Knavismere of York back in May under quick conditions and if the ground was to dry out he would be home and hosed against these of this mark today, however he is most probably best judged on his other qualifying run which came over the 7F of Redcar in the mud in a class 3 handicap in which I have him down as running to a mark of 92 that day. Today’s test of stamina is sharper then that day while the York effort under quick conditions would be less of a test of stamina, so this test is somewhere in between and he should be amongst the two efforts and he could well put up a effort around the 95 mark I feel.

Chief rating – 95 (+10)

2.    Roker Park – Has put up 4 decent efforts throughout the summer and is genuinely a mud lark as three of those efforts have come under heavy conditions so the more rain the better his chances will become today. The pick of his efforts was in the Bronze cup sprint at Ayr in which I have him as running to a mark of 89 in a big field handicap, while he also recorded a fine effort at Hamilton over six furlongs in the mud, the other effort was over 7F at Newcastle which he ran to 81 and maybe his stamina didn’t quite get him home over that stiff 7F, however this task today is likely to be plenty sharp enough for him over 7F and while he may stay the trip others under the conditions may just find it more to his liking. His best effort under sharper conditions is best judged on his effort at Ripon under Good to soft conditions in a sprint handicap, that day he ran to 78 mark, but this is most probably still a little sharper that that unless the ground rides more heavy then soft around this downhill 7F race.

Chief Rating – 78 (-5)

3.    Dr Red eye – Been very consistent this season as have quite a few of these and has put up 7 decent efforts so far this season which has seen him rise in the weights up to this level of handicaps. The stable are in good form as they get ready for the all weather season in which they do so well under that code. Dr Red Eye is sure to play his part over the winter months having performed well over a mile at Kempton this year and could be interesting when returned to that surface. Back in July he put up a sparkling performance in a class 4 Handicap over course and distance in which there was some cut in the ground and I rated that performance as being around the 76 mark, he has however got 3 better ratings then that this season all in the early 80’s and two of them have come on the downhill track of Epsom race course over 7F showing that he likes a downhill track which aren’t likely to stretch his stamina. Today’s conditions should be ok for him given his performances on a turning track as proved when recording his best effort of 83at Chester under Good to soft conditions in September, the concern is that he needs to find more improvement to be as well handicapped as some of these in this race I feel but should give his running.

Chief rating – 83 (0)

4.     Beckermet – The admirable Beckermet has no less than 9 decent efforts this season and has once again been a model of consistency for his trainer and he often runs his races on no matter what the conditions, however any races that are of a more extreme stamina test over 6 to 7 furlongs seem to see him at his best but often it is that he constantly runs to around the same mark and his average from the 9 runs is a mark of 83. Today’s test is sharper than 8 of those 9 efforts recorded this season and he does like a more galloping track to which he comes with a sustained effort and the one effort that was sharper that he ran a decent race in was the Ayr effort on Good to firm ground back at the end of May this year. The ground today will help him around this track and based on his Ripon and Thirsk efforts  which was under slight more testing conditions in terms of track then I have him running around the 82 mark in this even though they were over six furlongs those races he is as effective over 7 as 6.

Chief Rating – 82 (+1)

5.    Green Park – Has been constantly on the go this season just like Beckermet and has performed with much credit this season in many of his races and has 11 decent efforts throughout the calendar year which has suggested that connections must be more then pleased with his efforts. The average report on his ratings from these efforts is a rating of 78 as a average but his best efforts have come under extreme conditions such as soft and heavy ground which suggest that more rain today and the better his chances are.  The 7F effort at Musselbrugh under soft conditions was his only qualifying effort over 7F this season and he ran to a mark of 83 that day which I have as a season best, but even though the track is more for speedy types the ground at Musselbrugh can make it a tough test of stamina in conditions as soft as it was that day. He is better judged on his more speedy tests with cut in the ground which defies his chances as around a mark of 78 for this.

Chief Rating – 78 (-2)

6.    Orpsie Boy – Ran a season best at the Chester Cup meeting in soft conditions and was in good form that time of the year, he has had a more sparingly campaign then his stable mate this season, but has still recorded 5 decent efforts throughout the season. The all weather effort back in September suggested that a winter campaign looks very much on the cards as that were a show of some form, while he also has course form when running under good to firm conditions over course and distance back in June where he recorded a effort of 83 that day and when he is inform he often runs around the early 80 marks. The conditions underfoot shouldn’t pose to much of a problem for him and he should run a solid race if on a going day, I have him averaging around 81/82 for this, even though I do feel a slightly more testing task would result in him running around 4lbs better, but it’s unlikely to be the case around here today and he does go well here as proving on that 83 running.

Chief Rating – 82 (+3)

7.    Polish World – Hard to judge and does come alive when least expected it would seem, he has only obtained 3 real efforts so far this season and one of them I have him down as recording a 87 effort when at Newcastle under good to firm conditions underfoot and whilst it is apparent that he isn’t one to have your mortgage on, when he is in the mood he is a very decent horse. The other decent effort was when chasing home Dubai Hills at Redcar in the mud and that effort whilst as not as competitive in numbers or stiff in track was a effort of similar stamina test as it was under soft conditions. Today’s task whilst there is some hope that he has a chance based on those two efforts, his other effort at Thirsk over 7F most probably is a more defining race to judge his chances on and even though he ran with credit that day his mark I gave him was much lower than those two efforts of just 73. There could be several reason for the fall down in form from mid-summer to that September effort, but with his best over a stiffer test of stamina I would be more prepared to think he will run closer to that 73 then the 85 behind Dubai Hills even though that effort is the best to judge Dubai Hills on from this season.

Chief Rating – 73 (-4)

8.    Nameitwhatyoulike -  Potentially the improver in the race but one that never really has gone on from early season form that saw him win nicely when making all from Sovereign Debt who has ended the season in a group 1, it may be fair to say that Sovereign Debt wasn’t given a hard time when leaving it all too late that day to concede weight to the Easterby runner but you have to give credit to Nameitwhatyoulike for that effort which I gave him a mark of 83 for and a reproduction of that effort under soft conditions would have him going close but there has to be reservations made when he hasn’t reproduced anything close to that albeit over tasks that have been sharper then that day, the only other qualifying run came prior to that effort and it was a poor race but he shaped with promise at Redcar under quicker conditions which maybe aren’t to his liking as I have him running to a low mark of 65 in that run. While he is the one open to improvement I feel a tougher test of stamina would be more to his liking and its highly unlikely that he will get into the Lincoln handicap next season of his current mark, maybe the silver version would be more a race for him to be of interest, but for this I can’t him running any higher than 74 even though improving horse can make you calculate things all wrong.

Chief rating – 74 (-3)

9.    Layla’s Hero – A very poor season has seen him end up at the foot of the weights for this event and whilst he is frighteningly well handicapped you have to take a massive leap of faith to back him at the moment and the question has to be when is the right time to back him as the ability is there as he proved early in the season. Maybe at the start of next season might be when to back him because his sole two qualifying runs have come in the first part of the season, but whilst that might well be the case, a similar thing could be said for yesterday winner Justonefortheroad that bounced back to form even though he also was frighteningly handicapped and hadn’t run well since the first part of the season. The difference is that Justonefortheroad had been subjected to difficult tasks throughout the summer and had at least shown some for, Layla’s Hero has a sharper test today in terms of track, but his two qualifying runs were at Leicester and Doncaster in competitive affairs that tie in strongly with Victoria Cup winner Global Village. The run at Leicester I actual have him running to a mark of 91 under soft conditions which he will encounter today and that was improvement on the 89 he recorded at Doncaster, leaving the suggestion a tougher test of stamina is needed, I can’t really use any other rating for him then this season and the last handful of runs have been very poor to get any idea, his Doncaster run would be the better effort to judge his chances on today as the Leicester run was much more testing then this downhill track today, however overall his rating of 89 from that day should have cautious mark by as he needs to turn back the form, and to be a back able proposition I would want the horse to have about a stone in hand on those history run.

Chief Rating – 89~ (0)

Tissue – Dubai Hills 11/4, Orpsie Boy 11/2, Beckermet 15/2, Dr Red Eye, Layla’s Hero 9/1 12/1BAR

Verdict – Layla’s Hero could well hold the key to this handicap if re-finding the form of old and is dangerously handicapped for this so I could not put anyone off backing at a big double figure price. However I can’t be rushing to back Nameitwhatyoulike at 4-1 or DR red eye at 7-2 and Dubai Hills has been made a very tempting bet at 4-1 for this today as he is the class act in the race and one that could deny a on top of its game Layla’s Hero. Orpsie Boy double figure odds give him a great each-way play and his odds are preferred to stable mates Beckermet for this even though both I would consider as decent value per chance.

Advised bet – Dubai Hills 1pt e/w @ 4-1 (PP)

3.20 Haydock Hot to trot racing handicap class 3 Hcp 24F Soft

The start of the jumps season arrives at Haydock and the feature handicap on the card can go to the top weight BUFFALO BOB who will reliesh the give in the ground around haydock that can become very testing and with rain forecasted in the area I expect the racing ground to be more soft then on the soft side of good which will suit the selection who loves to get his toe in. Jason maguire has a decent record on Buffalo bob who was last seen at this track on spring ground which didnt suit him, But if you looks at his overal form his five wins over fences have all come with cut in the ground which he will encounter today.

The nature of this track should well suit him and I expect him to go close at least in this handicap with stamina assured under the conditions. A winner of 120 at Chepstow last season he has managed in the past to win of a mark of 126, whilst also placing in cheltenham handicap of a mark of 134 in his history so at the age of 9 he should be able to give a good account of himself of a mark of 125 here today under soft conditions. His record fresh is useful as well and is most probably why jason Maguire has been booked for the ride.

Advised bet - Buffalo Bob 2pt e/w @ 13-2 (Billys)


5.35 Kempton 10F Class 4 handicap Standard

The godolphin pair may hold the key to this handicap and the jockey booking suggests Represtantion is the one to be on, while the market suggest that the impressive Nottingham maiden winner Albasharah is the one to back, however I can see wht Barzalona has picked the Mahmood Al Zarooni runner due to the fact that he is proven on the surface. The handicap run last time was too poor to be true and with the tongue tie on this time there is every hope that he is ready to do himself justice in the handicap sphere on this surface now and will be one maybe for Meydan and his owners carnival early next year.

He rates as the best potential improver under these conditions. Rhagori is improving on the turf and needs to transfer those efforts on to the all weather even though a stiffer test of stamina may well see him at his best on this surface. Savannah Days is a proven performer on the all weather and at a double figure price holds some e/w value at 12-1 for this, but I still believe there is more to come from Henry Clay who won over 12F last time out at Wolverhampton and has only been raised 2lbs in the weights and really sets the standard on the all weather of these 3yo. The drop back in trip is not a concern given his running style and the 4 berth draw should enable him to get too the front and dictate the pace under martin lane who has a 15% strike rate when teaming up with Mark Johnston.

Advised Bet - Henry Clay 1pt e/w @ 5-1 (PP)

Good luck as usual chief , good stuff

2.15 Southwell 20.5F Handicap Hurdle

1.    Bandanaman – Class average 4.3 – Bottom of the handicap and one that could well spring a surprise if on song today. Back to form on the level throughout the summer he produced a decent enough effort last time out at Carlisle over 20 furlongs in soft conditions. The Jockey takes his weight down to a feather weight which will help and the performance at Hexham back in March gives the impression that he will be more then capable under these conditions of this race today. The run at Sedgefield back in 2011 August you can draw some comparison to this test today and that was his best effort over hurdles to date and would have him potentially well handicapped off 108 today.

2.    Banyan Tree – Class Average 4.77 – Finished last of 11 when last seen at the start of the year and has had some problems so has to be a concern there. This looks like a finding out mission for the yard as his stamina is sure to be tested with all his best form over a shorter trip then he is running today.

3.    Brough Academy – Class Average 4.6 – Needs to find improvement to have a say over these types of trips having regressed on his original form over the sharper trip in October 2011. The best piece of form to judge him on his effort at Fontwell over 18.5F which was under testing conditions and that day would have proved if he was as much a stayer as a speed related hurdler and the down grading on that effort suggest that he will need to find more improvement.

4.    Cue to Cue – Class Average 2.87 – Looks to hold a strong chance on the form book having contested some decent hurdle events around Newcastle which is his track, and whilst Southwell track is a much more sharper test for him he does have a mixture of speed and stamina that should be tailor made for this track. His effort in a class 5 event at Newcastle over 20 Furlongs on good ground was a decent effort and while this race is of better class his efforts in some smart hurdle races last term suggest that he could well be better quality then this field to which a mark of 118 can see him land the spoils in.

5.    Hi tide – Class Average 4.55 – Seems to perform better over sharper trips given the ratings obtained by him on the book and his effort over 20F at Worcester back in June 2011 has him needing to find improvement to get competitive of this mark, whether he can find improvement is to be seen as he looks a shade below his current handicap mark of 113 and looks to not have gone on from the form he showed in 2011.

6.    Joseph  Lister – Class Average 3.68 – The favorite for this and no surprise to see why as his best form have all come under similar conditions to today’s test. At Best he is looked useful and showed promise early on in his novice days, paired with some tough asks afterwards which saw him run to a degree of consistency but never really got back to his best that he showed 12 months ago. Changed hands since and now with Charlie Longsdon from Nicky Henderson yard it’s to be seen if his new handler can get the improvement needed for him to go on. Should be thereabouts at the finish with much in his favor, but needs to improve on Fontwell first start for his new yard to be winning off 125.

7.    Neither Stream – Class Average 4.86 – Showed improvement to win at Huntingdon in August and could well go on again if finding improvement to win of this mark. That race was a lot lower then what he contests today but he is in form and if still in the same mood after a short break then he could well be thereabouts in this contest from near the bottom of the handicap, but this is by far the toughest task to date for the horse but showed improvement for the longer trip and could improve again.

8.    Phoenix Light – Class Average 3.82 – Timmy Murphy booking is eye catching for this horse that has had problems in the past. Another that is effective over trips this far, his best effort has come under sharper conditions then he contest today and will need a patient handling ride from Timmy Murphy to be involved in the finish as a reproduction of his sharper effort would have him at least competitive of this mark as he looks well in the grip of the handicapper based on his performances over this trip.

9.    Saingland – Class Average 3.66 -  One of the more classier horse in the race with some decent recorded races under his belt, but also one of the more exposed runners in the field so vulnerable to a improver in this handicap. Stiffer tests of stamina hold his best form on the book, but his effort over 22F at Stratford on good ground should see him go close if reproducing that level of form today as a mark of 130 looks more than attainable on that basis over this 20.5F under these conditions underfoot.

10.    The Fonz – Class Average 4.6 – Limited amount of efforts over hurdles for this ex-Sir Michael Stoute colt so far and one in which he hasn’t strike the impression that he will be anything special over hurdles. Course form already in the book when running with credit here in June bodes well to his chances and is open to improvement even though he didn’t really show any when running next time out at Worcester on a similar type of test. Improvement is required on that basis as 123 looks more than a fair valuation of his ability of timber by the handicapper.

11.    Well Hello There – Class Average 4.3 – Tough ask to give weight all round today for the strong connections, but is open to quite a fair bit of improvement as he steps back in trip since looking like a very useful horse when runner-up at Ascot behind Water Garden back in December 2011. Prior to that he had shown to be effective over the sharper trip when running well over 19.5F at Carlisle last autumn and that test of stamina is likely to be more conclusive then the staying event at Ascot which was 3M in the mud. The absence is some concern but he does look to have ability and a mark of 130 is more than attainable if retaining the ability he showed at Ascot and applying it to the sharper test of stamina today, he rates as the most interesting runner in the handicap.

Verdict – Not a bad handicap for the track and most of these will be contesting class 3 to 4 handicaps throughout the season and some will be in class 2 handicaps if progressing throughout the season as expected. Well Hello there rates as the most interesting horse by my reckoning but has some question marks to answer in this today. Joseph Lester is short on value at around the 2-1 mark for this and there is enough to take him on at that price I feel. Saingland is sure to go well and be staying on all the time, while Bandanaman from the foot of the weights could spring a surprise given his double figure odds. CUE TO CUE on the book has the highest level of form in terms of races contested of note and should go close in this handicap with much in his favor, He could still have some improvement to come and for me is the best value in the handicap today as a solid viable selection goes.

Selection – Cue to Cue 1pt e/w @ 11-2

Fancy HER myself, but where is the 11/2 available please?

Thank  you

3.20 Sedgefield 20F Handicap Chase GS Class 3

1.    Buck Mulligan – Class Average 2.40 – The class act in the handicap is looking like a well handicapped horse to strike with at some point in the near so future after some fair efforts in his last two runs at Market Rasen and Cheltenham in a higher quality of event. The run after a break back in May is his best effort so far this season as he finished a close up 5th in a competitive affair at Stratford in May and a reproduction of that would have him going well off a mark of 127 in this and he looks one of the favoured runners for this event.

2.    Carpincho – Class average 3.32 – 2nd season novice chaser who should appreciate the drop back in trip today having failed to stay 3M when last seen at Uttoxeter and his impressive effort at Fontwell over 22 furlongs is best race to judge his chances on as he ran out a convincing winner of a un-competitive affair that day in which even a bad last fence blunder couldn’t stop him from trotting up in decent fashion and whilst that was a straight forward task in terms of opponents you couldn’t be anything but impressed by his jumping and the speed he showed that day. There could be further improvement this season and with that in mind he should be competitive off a mark of 126.

3.    Corkage – Class Average 3.56 - Doncaster Specialist Corkage is one of the more proven exposed runners in the handicap and I’d be surprised if he can find more improvement at 9yo to overcome a mark of 133 and give weight away to some interesting looking handicappers and even though todays trip and ground should be ideal, others appeal more from a handicapping point of view.

4.    Global Flyer – Class Average 3.90 – Finally got his act together over fences last season and then was well beaten of a 2lb higher mark then he runs off today and maybe is likely to find things tougher this season, however the efforts he put up at Huntingdon and Wetherby would suggest he could well win of a mark of 125 this season so he isn’t a forlorn hope even though this looks to hold a few progressive types who could be better handicapped.

5.    No Planning – Class Average 3.72 – 1-1 over fences after winning a novice chase last time out and that effort was every bit as good as his novice hurdle efforts and given some of his jumps he put in there is room for improvement and the 123 mark should be an attainable mark for him to win off with the longer trip likely to help his rhythm of jumping. The Catterick run last winter behind Bourne over 19F proved that he has stamina in his locker as well as pace, he failed to last the trip that day but that may well be down to the fact he gave the winner a run for his money and the conditions took its toll, the less testing conditions should see him to better effect and he has every chance if showing the expected progression.

6.    Pena Dorada – Class Average 4.14 – Looks up against it in this sphere of opponents and looks handicapped up to his best on the form in the book and needs improvement which he is entitled to being just a 5yo chaser, but he has had 10 runs as a chaser now and hasn’t really progressed so far over fences. The Trip looks to be the furthest he will want and I see others more classy able to see out the trip better.

7.    Rackham Lerouge – Class Average 4.30 – Didn’t show his best when last seen in June at Market Rasen when finishing down the field but prior to that he looked quite useful when hacking up at Fontwell on ground with some ease in it and a return to that form would have him involved in the finish in this handicap. The mark of 124 looks attainable based on that Fontwell effort and the 20F around Sedgefield should be a stern enough test of stamina for him as in his novice days he showed to have some speed when running a fair effort against the likes of Medermit when with Nicky Henderson.  Now with Charlie Longsdon he has the ability but once again if he was as good as he looked at Fontwell then why has he been moved out of the yard, he is a hard puller.

8.    Rich Lord – Class Average 4.80 – All his best form has come at a lower level and even though he hails from a yard that does well at Sedgefield I feel he is there to be taken on today under these conditions. The win at Carlisle over 21F was under very testing conditions and he excelled over the stronger test of stamina and that was a personal best, his best hope lies with a lot of rain hitting the track and if it was to turn soft to heavy type of ground then his stamina may well come into play and he would be of interest in this handicap.

9.    Tyrone House – Class Average 3.45 – Another that is best when getting his toe in his best efforts to date has come at Perth and Wetherby under soft conditions and the effort 11 months ago at Wetherby over 2 and half miles was a very decent effort which would have him as well handicapped off a mark of 127. A winner over course and distance under today’s pilot bodes well and even though he is vulnerable to an improver he should give his running and only rain can add to his chances as he enjoys a stiff test of stamina even though the drop back based on 4 subsequent runs since landing that Wetherby race looking a bonus.

Tissue – Carpincho 5/2, Buck Mulligan 10/3, Tyrone House, No Planning 5/1, Rackham Lerouge 7/1, Global Flyer 8/1 BAR 9/1

Verdict – Buck Mulligan should go close now the handicapper has given him a chance and I make him one of the more favoured runners for this race when pricing it up and he should go well and is worth considering at 4/1 for this event today. No Planning is the improver in the field and rates as a consideration, but 11/4 early best price isn’t worth considering in my opinion as a valid betting proposition. Tyrone House at a big price of 14/1 is of interest for this as he is a proven handicapper, more rain would have added to his chances. CARPINCHO at 5/1 is the selection  as I see him as a improver in this field for Sarah Humphrey and even though not totally convinced by today’s pilot I am prepared to give him ago in this event.

Carpincho 1pt e/w @ 5-1 (Billys)

IDKW I got 11/2 with the purple site yesterday (6.8), however soon after posting I got a 3% reduction due to the NR and obviously with 3% commission I got about a 5/1 return.

2.15 Exeter Pertemps Handicap Hurdle class 2 23.5F Good to soft Ground 7 Runners

1.    Alfie Sherrin – Class Average 1.35 – Former hurdler for Paul Nichols and shocked a few when winning at the festival this year over fences for the Jonjo O’Neil and JP Mcmanus. Once sent of a warm favourite for the final of this event in 2010 he has ability over the small obstacles to be of interest on a mark of 136 and his task has been made a lot easier by the fact that he has a nice racing weight of 11 stone 1lb for this event today. After winning at  the festival he ran well in the Irish National at Fairyhouse where he placed and with that performance the assessor is likely to limit his chances over fences for the season so the plan could well be to be aimed at the Pertemps final come March. The performance he put up in 2010 at Newbury suggest that he should be well suited to this test and the Spring efforts suggest he still retains the ability of old so he is of interest in this today.

2.    Captain Sunshine – Class Average 2.87 – 2nd season over hurdles and one that could well progress throughout the season as they saved him more for this season then last in which he missed both the two main festivals of National hunt earlier in the season and the recent spin over hurdles at Cheltenham suggested that he is in good heart still and would prefer this stiffer test of stamina that he encounters today. Unlike the majority of his rivals today he comes into this having had a run and even though he ran below his previous effort in April he is sure to improve for the outing and should be capable of winning off a mark of 134 this season. This will be a true pointer as to his chances for the season.

3.    Five Dream – Class Average 1.46 – Ran well in this very race 12 months ago when chasing home stable mate the Knoxs. That effort on the face of what he went on to do throughout the early part of the season can be considered as a let-down as he was running off a mark of 131 and ended up at a mark of 151 – 153 by the back end of last season for running illustrious stable mate Big Bucks to around 10L and the handicapper has really taken no chances with him. A mark of 147 for this would be attainable if he ran to the marks behind Big Bucks but you could argue the case that he was flattered by those runs and is likely to struggle. The fact that a 3lb claimer takes the ride (regular jock in graded races) again in a handicap adds to the concern that he isn’t particularly well handicapped and may well struggle to beat his old stablemate Alfie Sherrin at the weights today.

4.    Lundy Sky – Class Average 4.30 – Out of the handicap in this today and with a long absence to overcome having been of the race course for over a year now. Hacked up over course and distance back in March 2011 but the strength of that race isn’t in the same parish as this event today and he is likely to find things tough on his return to the track. The ground is likely not to be as testing as first feared which will help his chances, but he is best watched in regards to future engagements.

5.    Moorland Sunset – Class Average 4.35 – Another out of the handicap for this event but comes here having had a recent run. The addition of James best offsets the extra weight he has to carry and he has course form when beating the useful Ambion Wood over 17F in the mud back in December last year, but whereas that rival has progressed nicely along, Moorland Sunset has not improved on that Novice event. The trip is a step into the unknown and the performances he has shown over the longer trip of 20F haven’t set the world on fire so with a stiff ask here today he is most probably best passed over running of effectively 116 and it looks like the hope is that the course reignites the flame in this today.

6.    Stars Du Granit’s – Class Average 3.10 – Ran only 5 days ago when trailing home by 18L from clear cut winner Parsons Punch and that was of the back of a confidence boosting win at Taunton at the end of October so he has been well kept on the go so far this season and this is a tougher test of stamina then the race he won at Taunton and the yard are looking to find his trip as he disappointed at Musselbrugh over a similar test of stamina. The Venetia Williams yard are in form and he just gets in the handicap here off a mark of 122 to which he will need to improve on his recent form to be competitive off, so the hope is that the further trip will help his chances but he has never progressed truly from his novice days.

7.    Amigo – Not really much to go on as I haven’t seen any form from this yard and the French form could be anything, however the yard are respected with this type of horse and any significant market support could have a big outcome on this handicap.

Tissue – Alfie Sherrin 2/1, Captain Sunshine 11/4, Five Dream 5/1, Amigo 7/1 10/1BAR

Verdict – After pricing this up around 3pm this afternoon once the decs had been declared I made ALFIE SHERRIN my 2/1 favourite for this and quite surprised to see the early price of 6/1 on offer with Amigo at 11/2 shorter than I expected on UK debut, but none too surprising as he is unknown quantity receiving lumps of weight. Top weigh Five Dream I feel holds no value at 3/1 while 9/4 fav Captain Sunshine is the danger to my selection and not too surprising to be at the head of the market with the bookmakers as he is the improver in the field. Stars Du Granits price is short enough as unless Amigo is something half decent I see the top 3 on my tissue as the likely winner, but I expect a straight match between Alfie Sherrin & Cptain Sunshine and have taken advantage with 365 early price.

Selection – 2pts win Alfie Sherrin @ 6-1 (365)

You could be right but my view is that this a prep race for a long distance chase still to be revealed. Race is a big swerve for me.

6/1 is a terrific price. I have had my account closed on Bet365, but lucky my wife has not yet been banned ;)

No way that horse is 6/1 tomorrow - good luck.

2.00 Bangor 24.5F Handicap Chase GS Class 3


1.    Alvarado – Class Average 3.43 - proven in soft conditions but may want a sharper test of stamina then 24.5F around Bangor as his best form comes under sharper trips around Wetherby. The effort he put up at Carlisle over 3M was below his current mark and he is likely to be more effective when paired with a strenuous test of stamina. NR

2.    Buffalo Bob – Class average 3.02 - Got him wrong last time when he failed to last the trip out and may well be pass his best as a combination of his stamina and handicap mark seemed to take its toll on him. His older form in the book suggest he is more than capable off this mark in staying races but he has regressed it seems and even though his form 12 months ago at Newbury suggest he has a chance over today’s test others look better handicapped.

3.    Cadoudalas – Class Average 3.60 - Taking a step into the unknown in terms of stamina his best form has come under testing conditions over shorter trips at Carlisle, Hereford and more recently Ludlow over 20F. The Ludlow track wouldn’t have put the emphasis on stamina as much as the further trip today so while he proved effective over the longer trip, he has got another task on his plate over this further trip today and a cautious approach should be taken as the Carlisle performance suggested 20F at Ludlow was within his grasp, the Ludlow run doesn’t quite suggest 24.5F at Bangor will see him as effective.

4.    Cotswold Charmer – Class Average 3.67 - Fairly lightly raced as a chaser and has course and distance form when putting up his personal best last December, has had a run over a similar test of stamina since and didn’t quite reach the same heights which would be a concern, but as he is lightly raced you could well forgive him that effort and judge him better on the course and distance run which would see him in with a chance in this better quality of race but likely to be effective off a mark of 116 today. 

5.    Fine Parchment – Class Average 2.10 – Stamina isn’t assured for this exposed handicapper with his best form coming over 2 and ½ Miles so far and even though a good level of class form in the book he could struggle with stronger stayers off a mark of 130 today. His target is often Newbury in March and that could well be on the agenda again as it was his last decent effort to note and a return to that venue in a couple of weeks could be ideal for him at the Hennessy meeting if he was to go there.

6.    Kauto Relko – Class Average 2.94 – Has been on the go this summer so has no issue with fitness for this event today. Two of his better efforts have come over trips at tracks that suggest that he should be well suited to this test of stamina today and that would be his last effort which was a personal best when running 5th at Cheltenham at this seasons October meeting in which a reproduction of that effort over 20F under good to soft ground suggest that he is well handicapped for this event with the longer trip based on Market Rasen form from the summer could bring about improvement under these conditions today.

7.    Lively Baron – Class Average 4.04 – Should be well suited to these conditions and one that looks guaranteed to see out the trip based on the best ratings he has achieved so far. Quite highly tested in amount of races for a 2nd season chaser, he holds his own around this level of racing and whilst not the classiest of chasers he should once again give his running and looks handicapped to be thereabouts.

8.    Monkerty Tunkerty – Class Average 6.5 – Stepping out of hunter chasers which will be his bread and butter after the festive periods but more than capable of running a big race in a handicap of this level based on his effort back in January under rules at Warwick. Based on that effort his handicap mark of 127 looks a viable winning mark for him and without knowing too much about his points form he should give a good account under that effort at Warwick today.

9.    Quartz De Thaix – Class Average 2.26 – Not run with much conviction last season and has found himself back and well handicapped and the run at this year’s festival suggested that the longer trips this season could well see him bounce back to form as he stayed on that day. This looks a ideal starting point for him to go from this season as the 24.5 Furlong track shouldn’t be too testing in terms of getting the track and unlike others who are unproven over the trip he has at least drawn encouragement that it will suit.

10.    Sir Du Bearn – Class Average 3.26 – Another that’s best form has come in between 2 & 3 miles and needs to prove that he has the ability to stay this far. This looks a decent handicap for him to be tried over 3 Miles in and he comes here in good form having ran a sound race over 21 furlongs at Stratford at the back end of October. In terms of ability he is capable at this level but needs to prove he stays the trip, but could improve for the longer trip so hard to totally discount

11.    That’s The deal – Class Average 3.94 - Looks up against it in this sphere of company and needs a personal best to trouble the judge it would seem. Has clocked up a fair few miles this year and hasn’t really progressed, he is a class 4/5 chaser at best and is likely to struggle off 109 today despite receiving weight all-round as his best form is over the shorter trip.

Tissue – Kauto Relko, Monkerty Tunkerty 4/1, Quartz De Thaix 9/2, Cotswold Charmer 7/1,Sir Du Bearn, Lively Baron 8/1 10/1BAR.
Verdict – not a bad looking handicap chase for Bangor and Monkery Tunkerty looks to hold a live chance out of hunter chases based on the demolition of the useful Bradley back in January and no surprise to see him at the head of the market. KAUTO RELKO has been running well without winning of late and looks handicapped to go well at this level I feel, I made him joint favorite for this event so the 7-1 on offer looks to hold value for a inform yard. Quartz De Thaix could well bounce back to form at 9/1 and was very much on my radar as a viable betting proposition and whilst there is maybe more value in him then Kauto Relko, the Charlie Longsdon horse at least has the more recent form to draw hope from and just shades my vote.

Selection – Kauto Relko 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (365)

Alfie Sherrin, Welsh Grand National??

2.25 Clonmel Oil Chase Grade 2 20F Soft

Let yourself Go - Class Average 1.66 - Once a half decent chaser when with Adrian Maguire and can boast a decent 2nd at the Punchestown Festival in the Ryanair Grade 1 novices chase in 2010. Not quite reached the dizzy heights of old that saw him finish 2nd in the 2010 renwal of this event when he finished 2nd to Tranquil Sea and a return to those sorts of performances would have him running to somewhere close of being competitive at this level, but his form has been of a lower class for sometime now and further easing by the handicapper will see him potentially off a handy mark in a handicap.

Magnanimity - Class average 1.06 - Effective at this level if not top quaility and looks the first string on jockey bookings for the Gigginstown stud. Ran a solid race at the cheltenham festival this year but is a little one paced needing the ground on the real testing side to be at his best and comes into this grade 2 event in good form having ran 2nd to Roi De mee Latest, but needs this to turn into a real stamina test underfoot to worry the principals and despite the 2lbs he recieves he needs to improve on the best of his form to worry the main players in this.

Rathlin - Class Average 1.55 - brings the improver factor to the race but whilst he isnt as exposed as the others in the race he has got to refind the form that saw him run 2nd to Flemenstar in the Power Gold Cup over 20F in the mud at Fairyhouse last season and that form does look half decent given the winner that day being so impressive so far this season. On jockey Bookings he is the 2nd string given that Davy Russell has sided with the inform Magnanimity so there is question marks on whether he is of genuine Grade 2 class.

Sizing Europe - Class Average 1.02 - One of the best chasers around and on ratings should have this in the bag if staying the trip in the mud, on the side of stamina this 10yo has got form in the book over further but each one of those efforts was short of his best on RPR by around 10lbs on average which opens the doors to others in the race. This should really be his last top season in my view to land the main races as more speedier youngsters are coming through.

Tranquill Sea - Class Average 1.32 - Regular in this race and knows what it takes to win this chase as he has won it the last two years and the year prior to that he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham so is one to catch this time of the year. On Ratings he has a bit to find with Sizing Europe on the best of both their pieces of form, but over this trip and stamina test it is more of a level playing field as this is his own back yard and he is sure to go well for Barry Gerghaty who is his regular pilot these days. Finished the season in good form and has good record fresh.

Tissue - Sizing Europe 10/11, Tranquil Sea 11/4, Maganimity 10/1, 12/1BAR

Verdict - Sizing Europe is sure to be the one to take out of the race for future grade 1 chases as he has the ability at the top level to be a force and even though there is a new kid on the block he is sure to win a top 2M chase at some point in the season but for todays race Tranquil Sea is a viable betting option in a race that brings out his best and at 11-2 it looks to me that he is overpriced for this.

Selection - Tranquil Sea 2pt win @ 11/2

Ive been pondering that myself Feltfair as to what the target would be for this horse, The Hennessy would come too soon I would imagine, however I am unsure that the welsh national would be his ground.

Suffered today by a race not judge him on, no pace, tardy start didnt help, maybe I will get my money back at Haydock as he is entered in the hurdle race that day, do feel he has a race in him from his current handicap mark over hurdles.

1.50    Cheltenham Paddypower.com Handicap Chase Class 2 16F GS 14 runners
Race conditions – Class 2 Stamina Key score 18.08

Astracad – Class Average 1.60 RPR average 147 Stamina Key Average 17.90.

Gelding who is 6yo who has had 7 chases races now and could still progress for the Twiston-Davies yard and should be ready to do himself justice on first start of the season as this looks an ideal early target for the horse. Running off a mark of 145 he should be capable of holding his own at this level with the stamina test being very much ideal for him as he has a mixture of speed and stamina.

Oh Crick – Class Average 1.80 RPR Average 153 Stamina Key Average 17.71.

Was well below par when trailing home Astracad over course and distance back in December but did return to form afterwards in the spring when winning at Chepstow and that was his best piece of form since 2010. Potentially more proven on Racingpost best rating then the majority of these in the handicap but is far more exposed having run 24 times over fences so far. Well handicapped off 144 if he was still to retain his ability of old but the employment of a 7lb claimer suggest that he may need some help at the weights.

Kid Cassidy – Class Average 2.47 RPR Average 148 Stamina Key Average 16.81

Has had only six runs over fences so far and can progress further this season and should be race fit for this having been given a tender time last time out in soft conditions at Aintree and while he is still open to improvement which given the average of his class of races he needs to improve on he is only 6yo with strong connections and sure to be able to produce more this season. Looks kindly handicapped on his RPR average of this mark of 144, the concern I have for him today is his ability to see out 16 furlongs on a stiff track such as this as his average stamina key is quite sharp in terms of his performances so far and he was below par at the festival in March so there are concerns to take into consideration.

Consigliere – Class Average 1.76 RPR Average 151 Stamina Key Average 21.21

Has plenty of class performances in the book and at 9yo should be in his pomp over fences but has had plenty of runs over fences and fits a similar profile to that of Oh Crick and that is represented in his RPR average that would have him as well handicapped. The Stamina Average suggest that a further trip would be ideal for him as he was so impressive over 21F at Wincanton last season and stayed on at Haydock under tough going over 3M last season but may have been flattered by that effort as many didn’t stay the trip. This trip was ideal for him a couple years back but he has question marks if he still retains the speed of old but if he does then he has to be considered of 142 and the claimer is one that demands respect taking 7lbs of his back.

Takeroc – Class Average 1.96 RPR Average 150 Stamina Key Average 17.97

Formerly with Paul Nichols and didn’t show much on first start for the new yard but the ground will have been far too soft for him that day with his best form all coming on good racing ground, the quicker conditions underfoot from that day should see him too better effect but while 139 is a mark he is capable of running a big race off on Racingpost rating he has to show that he is still capable of the marks he got with the ex-champion trainer. The flatter tracks have seen him to better effect, but he does look now to need a slightly tougher test of stamina over 16 furlongs these days which he will get today and he should give his running, but he needs to show he is still in good heart.

Free World – Class Average 2.70 RPR Average 150 Stamina Key Average 18.40

Another formally with Paul Nichols but while he has changed trainers he is still with the same owners suggesting that maybe the Irish races appealed more to his chances but he hasn’t proven that really since leaving the champion trainer. Fell in the grand annual here and would have been amongst the first 6 or 7 home that day as he was travelling well and the stamina test on offer today should be perfect for him and he is sure to be fit after failing to get home in the mud on first start this season. The 134 mark is a mark he should be more than capable of winning off. The only problem is that you have to have a leap of faith with him as it’s been a while since he has put up a performance but on his day he is very capable in this sphere.

Rio Gael – Class Average 2.70 RPR Average 130 Stamina Key Average 16.73

Only 6yo and he is entitled to improvement but he does need to find against the best of these and maybe is best saved for another day as a betting proposition with some doubts over his stamina as well on stiff tracks as his best has all come on sharper speedy tracks, he looks up against it handicap wise as he has had more than enough chase races in his career to produce a decent enough average and he does look up against it.

Silver Roque – Class Average 3.25 RPR Average 132 Stamina Key average 17.13

Formally with Henerita Knight but has improved further for the change to Fergal O’Brien this season and is one that is coming into this on top of his form and should give his running if seeing the trip out as he could improve further despite the further 2lb increase at the weights but this is a tougher ask then previous class wise. Never really stayed over further with Henerita Knight, he could see out this stiff 16 furlongs well with some cut in the ground but it’s no surprise to see his improvement has come under sharper tests.

Wetak – Class Average n/a

Not much UK form to go on and didn’t shape with too much promise over hurdles at Ascot when finishing 5th of 6.  The market will be the best guide going into this handicap chase as to his chances.

Arctic Ben – Class Average 3.5 RPR Average 127 Stamina Key Average 19.78

One that will see this trip out well having failed to last home the 21 furlongs back in May behind Mad Moose here, but this trip should very much be more to his liking around here and at 8yo he looks to still have some improvement in him and the booking of Richard Johnson for Henry Daly often means that they feel he is capable at this level of handicap.  The current mark of 125 should still see him capable of running a big race but he does have to improve again which is possible with much in his favour.

Shooters Wood – Class Average 3.33 RPR average 123 Stamina Average 16.49

Paul Nichols and Ruby Walsh team up near the foot of the handicap with this unexposed hunter chaser who has course form in the book already when winning at the hunters chase meeting here back in May 2010. That was a much easier task the he faces today but he did it nicely and as only 8yo has progressed since running well twice already this autumn and the stiffer finishing track may well bring out further improvement as he has been a little one paced in his finishes so far this season.

Salute Him – Class Average 3.70 RPR Average 136 Stamina Average 17.20

Tony Martin has employed the services of Maurice Linehan to give his runner the lowest possible weight in this handicap as he just creeps into the handicap, but on Racingpost ratings he actually looks to be well handicapped based on his runs over Hurdles and even though he has yet to show the same form over fences in his six starts you can’t help but see him as a potential shock in this.

Fiftyonefiftyone – Class Average 3.62 RPR average 126 Stamina Average 17.74

Not seen since labouring home at Ascot 12 months ago and has that to overcome. Well handicapped on the best of his form and has a feather weight to run off being out of the handicap here today. Looking at the make-up of his form he may find this competitive enough on return to the race course and is likely to come on for the run.

Lucy’s Legend – Class Average 4.30 RPR Average 115 Stamina Average 16.65

Has several things to prove despite the fact that she comes into this race inform and is worse at the weights with shooters wood on Kempton running due to being out of the handicap and James best is brought in to offset the weight. Not proven over a stiffer test of stamina and has that to prove as her best form has been on sharper speedier tracks and when up against it at the weights she should be fighting a thankless task here today.
Tissue – Astracad 9/2, Arctic Ben 5/1, Oh Crick 15/2, Free World, Kid Cassidy 8/1, Silver Roque 10/1, Shooters Wood 12/1 Salute Him 14/1 16/1 BAR

Verdict – tricky Handicap with question marks over a fair few of these runners with Takeroc & free World needing to prove they obtain the ability shown with Paul Nichols. Salute Him for Tony martin is well handicapped based on hurdles form but needs to prove he can jump well enough; the claimer booking is interesting here. Oh Crick, Astracad and Arctic ben all look too hold decent chances and the Twiston-Davies runner could well contest some weak graded chases this season over 2M and run well and has to have a chance off top weight in this with course form in the book and at 9/2 he looks priced about right. Oh Crick a grand annual winner at this track has held his form well over the years but often comes on for the run but this doesn’t look the toughest of tasks first time out. ARCTIC BEN looks the pick at the weights in this at best priced 9/1 as it looks a race tailored for him to improve on over a stiff minimum distance race.

Selection – Arctic ben 2pt e/w @ 9/1 (Billys)

2.35 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup 20.5F Good to soft class 1

Poquelin - Class Average 1.02– Comes into this handicap race fit having stayed on after being given a quiet ride into contention over 3 Miles last time out under today’s pilot who takes 7lbs off the back of this talented chaser. His 4 best efforts have all come over 21 furlongs at this track under similar conditions as to today’s race so there is every chance that he can perform to his best here today which he will need to off his current mark of 163 over half a furlong shorter than those 4 performances but the 9yo should be thereabouts and whatever finished in front will be a very classy horse.

Alferof – Class average 1.02 – Had enough speed to win a supreme hurdle at the festival and was a winner at this meeting 12 months ago when making his chase debut. Struggled to reach the dizzy heights of his 3rd at Ascot against more experienced chasers and that was most probably his best effort to date. Didn’t seem to get home at Aintree on last run of his novice season, so based on that evidence has to prove he stays the trip. Picked by Ruby Walsh suggest that he does stay the trip and certainly one of the classiest horses in the field, he may well improve for the longer trip but that’s to be proved and with reservations I would say others appeal more.

Calgary Bay – Class Average 1.06 – Likely to find things tough after a good start to the year for his ex-trainer and is fully exposed handicapper who needs to find a personal best it would seem. Winner over 21 furlongs was soon meet with an improved effort to land a competitive handicap at Doncaster and that was his best form away from Cheltenham which has played home to his previous best. Suited to this track and the conditions of today’s race he can run his race but to win of this mark he needs maybe a longer trip based on the Doncaster run.

Hunt Ball – Class Average 1.70 – A highly progressive type whose personal best effort was on his last start at Aintree when he travelled strongly throughout the race and was only beaten on the run in that day. The race before is the pointer towards this race in terms of conditions and based on that startling effort at the Cheltenham festival when he was an easy winner and he should be thereabouts if still the same progressive horse from last season.

Grands Crus – Class Average 1.22 – Flopped at the festival and connections will be hopeful that he can put that behind him as he did nothing wrong prior to that run and this would be the bare minimum for the horse as he is a stayer and likely to be better in the King George then this race today, but his current handicap mark of 157 looks too soft for the Pipe yard to pass up even over this shorter trip and he should be thereabouts at the finish, even though he could well be like Long Run in this race 2 years ago.

Quantitativeeasing – Class Average 1.00 – Didn’t stay the trip when contesting 3M here at the festival and will enjoy being reverted back to this trip and can run another sound race around this course and distance as he did 12 months ago and he did go on to win next time out at this track in December over ½ furlong further. AP McCoy has opted for stable mate who is less exposed and has a progressive profile. If he produces his best he should be thereabouts but this is a very decent renewal.

Aerial – Class Average 1.27 – Paul Nichols has a strong hand in this handicap and Aerial ran well in this race 12 months ago and then went on to run several good races throughout the campaign and finished the season with a fair effort behind Hectors Choice over course and distance in April, that was a uncompetitive affair in comparison to this race and that may have helped him as he does seem to perform best in small fields then he will be competing in today and maybe that can be noted from his effort in this race 12 months ago given his mark and ability he could only manage a one paced 4th. He should find a small field event within his grasp this season off this mark.

Tanks for that – Non Runner

Forpaddydeplasterer – Class Average 1.20 – Once a very classy chaser, but now on the cusp of becoming a 11yo he looks a shade below his best and this is a competitive affair to which he needs the principals to fail to be involved in the placing’s I feel. Still not assured that he has the stamina with his best performances under sharper conditions and trip he is best passed over.

Nadiya de La Vega – Class Average 2.75 – Winner at the October meeting over course and distance when proving that he stayed the trip around a track such as this after suffering when upped from 2 miles. That performance was a decent effort and a vast improvement on his form and not too surprising to see AP McCoy keep faith in this progressive 6yo who is sure to have strengthened up. Upped 8lbs for that win his task is much harder but he is handicapped still to do himself justice if improving again for these kinds of tests.

Michael Flips – Class Average 1.28 – Seems best over sharper conditions then he is too contest today and is quite exposed for a 2nd season chaser. The handicapper has given him a chance this season and he is likely to be of interest sharper tracks even though he has ran with credit at 2 festivals even though never looking like a winner in either races.

Walkon – Class Average 1.28 – Has gone well fresh in the past and was an impressive winner at Exeter on first run over fences 12 months ago, but this is a much more competitive race then that and he needs to prove to act under stiffer conditions which he will encounter today. The trip looks ideal for him based on his effort at Ascot over hurdles suggesting this is his best kind of trip in a big field. Scottish National proved he doesn’t stay that far and revert to this trip should help him and he looks handicapped to go well if his jumping is back to its fluent best. Wasn’t much between Walkon And Grand crus on royal sun alliance form back in march but that rival was below par, walkon wasn’t his best but closer to his best and ran with credit even though shorter trip would be preferred.
The Disengager _ Class Average 2.47 – looks up against it in terms of quality after progressing in lesser races throughout the summer but comes into this race in good form. Sharper tests seem to suit him best on his form and he looks handicapped up to his best form and would be a surprise if he was good enough to trouble the judge in this.

Divers – Class Average 1.00 – So in and out that his own performances of note seem to come at this venue but the last run was too poor to be true and he needs to show some sparkle today or can be discounted for future handicaps as he is quite exposed these days, however I couldn’t discount him as 138 is certainly a mark he can run a big race off and he often comes on for his first outing of the season. He has everything in his favour to return to his best and Timmy Murphy booking is significant as he is a big race jockey, placed in this and at the festival so respected but last run was very poor.

Triolo D’Alene – Class Average 2.75 – Unexposed but failed to show any form at the festival over course and distance behind Hunt ball so has it all to prove under the conditions of the race. Form so far suggests that he is best under sharper tracks over shorter trips that suggest he is more speed based then stamina blessed.

KingsMere – Class average 3.7 – Up against it in terms of class performances in the formbook as he has shown his best at a low level but was going ok when falling last time to Carlito Brigante. Just sneaks into the handicap but would be a surprise if he is good enough to win this considering the profiles he is up against in this handicap. Still unexposed he could find improvement but needs to prove his jumping can stand up under stiff track such as this.

Casey Top – Class Average 2.50 – Exposed and handicapped up to his best but ran well in the Galway Plate in the summer from a similar position in the handicap. 5lb claimer helps to offset the weight from out of the handicap and he is effective under these stiff race conditions and may claim a place at a big price if the principals were to fail, but others looks better handicapped for this.

Finger on the Pulse – Class Average 1.94 – Very well handicapped if ever re-finding the form of old as he stays the trip well. Jumped well last time out when chasing home Nadiya De la vega after travelling up well and even though this time he is out of the handicap he should once again give his running around here even though this is a tougher ask class wise this time around, the claimer keeps the ride to help offset the out of the handicap factor, but he does need to re-find the form of old or hope that the principals don’t run to their best form.

Questions Answered – Class Average 1.95 – Out of the handicap by 7lbs but is effective under these type of conditions and trip, but it would be a surprise if he is good enough but he comes here in progressive form so could improve again.
Gilbarry – Class Average 3.17 – 10lbs out of the handicap and best on a sharper track. Regressive profile makes it even harder to see him involved in the finish and he should be regarded as the rank outsider in this.

Tissue – Grand Crus 4/1, Poquelin 6/1, Walkon 7/1, Divers, Nadiya De La vega 9/1, Finger on the Pulse, Quantitiveasing, Hunt Ball 10/1, Aerial, Alferof 14/1, 20/1BAR

Verdict – Grand Crus looks very dangerously handicapped and could well overcome the shorter test of stamina with his class in this handicap that is wide open with plenty of others capable around here, however 9/4 looks  plenty short enough with some concerns in a competitive affair where he may not have much in hand over this trip. Poquelin looks like he could strike back at Cheltenham after an eye catching prep and he is well handicapped on his best form around this track and the 28-1 looks an insult to his chances considering the 2nd to the Giant Bolster over course and distance looks good enough to be involved in the finish in this and could well be the pick of the Paul Nichols trio. Walkon is well handicapped and could run a big race and is priced correctly here. Divers is another to consider as this is his type of race but the recent run is a concern and that’s why he is priced up bigger then 2nd favourite on my tissue. The JP Mcmanus trio comes next with the youngster the most feared.

Selection – Poquelin 2pt e/w @ 28-1 (365)

A truly exceptional write up Well Chief but do feel your wasted on here, i'm on classic so don't know how many views you get, how do you arrive at your class figure?

Might be worth reading this.....

http://starbets.ie/horse-racing/winners-still-very-much-in-the-pipe-line/

GL Chief, quite fancy Poquelin for a place myself, not sure I had him at 6-1 on my tissue but 28-1, and even 33-1 in a place now bigger than I'd assumed considering his love for the C/D.

Stewart Rise, I allot a class figure per a race and then take the average of the 5 best piece of form.

2.10 AMLIN 1965 Chase Grade 2 19F Soft Ascot


Tomorrows Grade 2 Chase at Ascot sees the return to the track for both Captain Chris and Finians Rainbow and whilst they are both class acts, I believe That the race fit FOR NON STOP should have a very strong chance under the conditions today as both his main two rivals are better under conditions that are not at testing as they are likely be today over this 19F trip that takes some getting.

The rank Outsider Quincy Des Pictons will love the ground but is inferior in terms of ability and he looks placed to pick up prize money here today in case the principals suffer under conditions. For Non Stop was impressive at Newbury back in Feb under softer conditions and returned in impressive fashion when bolting up at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase. Finians Rainbow is a top quaility chaser but the shade odds on I feel is little short here today for first run having to concede weight for his Grade 1 Penalties. For Non Stop looks decent value at 7-2 with less question marks.

Advised bet - For Non Stop 2pt win @ 7-2 (Lads)

2.45 The Ascot Hurdle 19.5 Soft Grade 2

Only 4 runners go to post and this could turn into a tactical affair, however I cant see past OSCAR WHISKY on his return to the track having apperciated the drop back in trip to land teh Aintree Hurdle on his last start after not staying the trip in the World Hurlde, He already holds Get me Out of Here on form and the small field is likely to be more of a benefit then it is to that rival. Brampour should be inferior to Oscar Whisky despite the 4lbs in weight being recieved and Raya Star is up against it at this level and the weights but is a course specialist. However at 8/11 Oscar Whisky looks the best play despite not likely to make you rich.

Advised bet - Oscar Whisky 3pt win @ 8-11 (lads)

3.05 The Betfair Chase (lancashire Chase) grade 1 3M Heavy

Another year under his Belt and Long Run is likely to go off favourite again unless the unexposed Silviano Conti is backed into favouritism, but I have enough question marks over the market leaders to want to take them on in Saturday's Feature race in which the conditions will be very testing underfoot and The Paul Nichols 2nd season chaser I feel is at his best when raced on better ground and the weather has gone against him.

Long run is another that best form is on better ground as well but he has handeled give before and looks the better of the two. Wayward Prince may reverse the charlie Hall running having returned to form last time and should enjoy the conditions, while the outsider Carington Brook should pick up some prize money under these condtions even though on all known ratings is inferior to each of these runenrs. The Giant Bolster is best at Cheltenham in which he recorded a personal best in the gold Cup, His task has been made tougher due to that piece of form as handicaps are no longer on the agenda and his jumping has question marks over.

My Selection in this is WEIRD AL for Donald McCain and Jason Maguire as he really caught the eye in this last season when ranging up to Kauto Star to then maybe pay for 2nd place with that effort that Timmy Murphy made and he really did travel and jump well that day, Long Run picked him off on the home run but that rival at times was let down by his jumping and was fortunate to finish in front, I believe Weird Al is best caught early season and he was denied a chance to defend his Charlie Hall crown because of the way he travelled in this last season and they want him in tip top conditions for this, jason Maguire is often the jock to follow around here.

Advised bet - Weird Al 2pt win @ 11-2 (Blue Cube)

3.20 Carey Group Handicap Chase 17F Class 2 Soft

Champion Court is the most interesting runner in this handicap after chasing home the Gold Cup Favourite last season at the festival and could well make light work of this handicap mark. Pepite Rose however comes here fit after a eye catching 3rd over course and distance last time, however this looks a tougher race.

Marodima will run his usual race, while Tanks for That looks handicapped up to the hilt and needs to improve. Toubab is another interesting runner and this is more his level rather then taking on the likes of Sprinter Sacre like he did at Aintree on his last run when easily beaten. The selection is to take a chance on MAD MAX who ran well last time despite the losing distance to For Non Stop as he set a strong gallop and then failed to see out the trip, he will be more suited to the shorter trip and hopefully Richard Johnson will settle him better over this shorter trip and not get pulled into a speed dual with Marodima who he should have the measure off pace wise in terms of class. Mad Max once finished 3rd to Master Minded and Somersby over course and distance and this is a far cry from that kind of contest. He has been around for what seems as life time but he hasnt as many miles on the clock as you would think.

Advised bet - Mad Max 1pt win @ 16-1 (spoils)

Superb as ever Chief.

I'm with you on FNS and 50% on Weird Al. Have to back my old friend GMOOH though.

Best of luck Glossy, I cant have Get me out of Here. If I was a layer I would be taking GMOOH, he will travel into the race but unless Oscar Whisky falls, then that rival will have him covered for tactical speed. get me out of here is best with cover and being produced in the class 1 Sphere. It be wrong to say he wont settle as he is experienced but he is like a sling shot in daytona racing terms, needs to be produced of a gallop over the last. See him sticking on. There is no Overturn in the race and it should be a case of similiar tactics to the race he won at Cheltenham where GMOOH ranged up then got beaten for turn of foot (well I hope), but I wish you luck

Agree with you completely on the race tactics and always look forward to your threads like this; you know your stuff. I just see GMOOH as the better value considering the ground probably won't be ideal for OW - whom I like a lot also. GMOOH has answered all questions asked of him in recent times and under the guidance of the champ, he can outbattle OW in a tight race IMO.

Looking forward to it. Should be a cracker.