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4.15 Newmarket Jockey Club rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race Class 1) 16F good to soft
A large field go to post for a listed stakes race in this country and even though it is a big field for a listed race the strength in depth isnt that strong with the penailized Cavalryman likely to be hard to beat in this event if you can overlook the most recent performance at York in which he ran well below his previous decent effort at Sandown in which he was so impressive. That Sandown win was his best performance for quite sometime having had previously a confident booster in a weakish affair at York over 14F.
The york form last time he finished behind his stablemate Lost in the moment who meets him on better terms of 3lbs in this event as cavalryman has to carry a 3lbs penalty for his listed wins at sandown and York in his previous events. However this Rowley mile track should play more to his strengths then the York run and Frankie Dettori keeps faith with him with that in mind today as he did travel well at York before sticking on very one paced and this track should help him more so he could well reverse the form. However Lost in the Moment is a danger to his chances as he does have those 3lbs from the York run for 3L difference in his favour so based on the most recent form he is the better horse for this race just at the weights, however his best form does come on more speed tracks then the rowley mile in this country with the goodwood form the pick of his Uk form and last run suggested he is on his way back to his best.
Two horses in the field contesting this trip for the first time are Richard Fahey Cracking lass & Times up handler John Dunlop who steps up berling to staying trips are two that could find improvement to maybe shake up the principals in this event. Cracking lass has to show a lot more then he did at Doncaster in the park hill in which she was never a factor in a group 2 race and even though this is a easier task for her in terms of quaility she has seemly found her best form over middle distance trips on easier courses. Berling may well be the one to improve having stayed on well from last place to finish 3rd over 14F on good soft ground at Goodwood two runs back in which the first 2 home was 1&2 all the way. Berling showed signs over 12F last time that he is worth a crack over the long trip and he could well improve further to bridge the class gap here with the two godolphin runners.
Caucus ran well at the guineas meeting to show a liking for the course, however his improved rating for the run in the ascot gold cup can be ignored as many was flattered by their finishing position in that Group 1 due to the slow pace set throughout the contest, while Lordofthehouse has something to find and a return to 2M should see him refind some form after a average performance when dropped back to 14F, however I am uncertain that he has the ability to find enough enough improvement and the 16-1 for me doesnt hold any value on offer. 2009 Cesarewitch winner Darly Sun needs to rediscover that level on form to have a chance in this and will most probably need the run after nearly a year of the track, he is the yards 3rd string for this. Suzis a class act, Astromagick and Ocean Minstral all look outclassed, while Matyr could have the bounce factor after contesting a strong run handicap at the leger meeting a couple of weeks back.
That leaves Aim To Prosper & Chiberta King as the challangers to Lost in the moment, Cavalryman and Berling as the principals in this event. Aim to prosper gets a 3lbs pull with cavalryman on the running in esher stakes and even though he has that in his favor for this run he was convincingly beaten that day along with Chiberta King who was a sh back in 3rd that day and both aim to propser and chiberta king ran simialir types of races that day and are closely matched. However aim to Prosper who travelled well in the doncaster cup last time out before tiring at the business end having cut out the Gallop, he is a cesarewitch winner off a low weight that day and hasnt been seen here since, while Chiberta King has and in this event 12 months ago when only beaten home by the top stayer this season Times up and his recent form since that Sandown run has seen him steadily improving over the longer trips having run well in the goodwood cup while running a shade below his recent staying form when just not having the pace to fend off songcraft in a conditions race over the stiff 14F of sailsbury in which only 3 runners took part and were seperated by less then 1/2L, he is certain to give his running in a event that he will have been targeted at.
Verdict - The Godolphin pair are very much likely to have this between themselves and Cavalyman is the most likely winner back on a track that puts more emphasis on stamina then at York, Lost in the moement may be the danger but he does have a tendency to enjoy a easier track then he contests today and could have a trouble confirming the form with Cavalyman on york running. CHIBERTA KING has been laid out for this after running well in it 12 months ago behind Times up and looks the biggest danger to Cavalyman with this less stiff track then Sandown liekly to help his claims even though he was no match the Godolphin horse in the esher stakes that look to hold the key to this event. Berling could reward his trainer at last now stepped up in trip and John dunlop did win this 12months ago, however this race isnt dominated by one yard and Andrew balding could well add his name to the growing list of winners of this event and at 7-1 I will take a chance on him e/w to upset the Godolphin pair at the head of the market.
Advised bet - Chiberta King 2pts e/w @ 7-1 Lads
A large field go to post for a listed stakes race in this country and even though it is a big field for a listed race the strength in depth isnt that strong with the penailized Cavalryman likely to be hard to beat in this event if you can overlook the most recent performance at York in which he ran well below his previous decent effort at Sandown in which he was so impressive. That Sandown win was his best performance for quite sometime having had previously a confident booster in a weakish affair at York over 14F.
The york form last time he finished behind his stablemate Lost in the moment who meets him on better terms of 3lbs in this event as cavalryman has to carry a 3lbs penalty for his listed wins at sandown and York in his previous events. However this Rowley mile track should play more to his strengths then the York run and Frankie Dettori keeps faith with him with that in mind today as he did travel well at York before sticking on very one paced and this track should help him more so he could well reverse the form. However Lost in the Moment is a danger to his chances as he does have those 3lbs from the York run for 3L difference in his favour so based on the most recent form he is the better horse for this race just at the weights, however his best form does come on more speed tracks then the rowley mile in this country with the goodwood form the pick of his Uk form and last run suggested he is on his way back to his best.
Two horses in the field contesting this trip for the first time are Richard Fahey Cracking lass & Times up handler John Dunlop who steps up berling to staying trips are two that could find improvement to maybe shake up the principals in this event. Cracking lass has to show a lot more then he did at Doncaster in the park hill in which she was never a factor in a group 2 race and even though this is a easier task for her in terms of quaility she has seemly found her best form over middle distance trips on easier courses. Berling may well be the one to improve having stayed on well from last place to finish 3rd over 14F on good soft ground at Goodwood two runs back in which the first 2 home was 1&2 all the way. Berling showed signs over 12F last time that he is worth a crack over the long trip and he could well improve further to bridge the class gap here with the two godolphin runners.
Caucus ran well at the guineas meeting to show a liking for the course, however his improved rating for the run in the ascot gold cup can be ignored as many was flattered by their finishing position in that Group 1 due to the slow pace set throughout the contest, while Lordofthehouse has something to find and a return to 2M should see him refind some form after a average performance when dropped back to 14F, however I am uncertain that he has the ability to find enough enough improvement and the 16-1 for me doesnt hold any value on offer. 2009 Cesarewitch winner Darly Sun needs to rediscover that level on form to have a chance in this and will most probably need the run after nearly a year of the track, he is the yards 3rd string for this. Suzis a class act, Astromagick and Ocean Minstral all look outclassed, while Matyr could have the bounce factor after contesting a strong run handicap at the leger meeting a couple of weeks back.
That leaves Aim To Prosper & Chiberta King as the challangers to Lost in the moment, Cavalryman and Berling as the principals in this event. Aim to prosper gets a 3lbs pull with cavalryman on the running in esher stakes and even though he has that in his favor for this run he was convincingly beaten that day along with Chiberta King who was a sh back in 3rd that day and both aim to propser and chiberta king ran simialir types of races that day and are closely matched. However aim to Prosper who travelled well in the doncaster cup last time out before tiring at the business end having cut out the Gallop, he is a cesarewitch winner off a low weight that day and hasnt been seen here since, while Chiberta King has and in this event 12 months ago when only beaten home by the top stayer this season Times up and his recent form since that Sandown run has seen him steadily improving over the longer trips having run well in the goodwood cup while running a shade below his recent staying form when just not having the pace to fend off songcraft in a conditions race over the stiff 14F of sailsbury in which only 3 runners took part and were seperated by less then 1/2L, he is certain to give his running in a event that he will have been targeted at.
Verdict - The Godolphin pair are very much likely to have this between themselves and Cavalyman is the most likely winner back on a track that puts more emphasis on stamina then at York, Lost in the moement may be the danger but he does have a tendency to enjoy a easier track then he contests today and could have a trouble confirming the form with Cavalyman on york running. CHIBERTA KING has been laid out for this after running well in it 12 months ago behind Times up and looks the biggest danger to Cavalyman with this less stiff track then Sandown liekly to help his claims even though he was no match the Godolphin horse in the esher stakes that look to hold the key to this event. Berling could reward his trainer at last now stepped up in trip and John dunlop did win this 12months ago, however this race isnt dominated by one yard and Andrew balding could well add his name to the growing list of winners of this event and at 7-1 I will take a chance on him e/w to upset the Godolphin pair at the head of the market.
Advised bet - Chiberta King 2pts e/w @ 7-1 Lads
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I agree and posted a similar though less thorough thread
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i'd imagine the procedure to transplant a heart is less thorough than that...
good stuff though, i am gonna fling a score e/w at Martyr cos I am a sucker for lost causes and the jockey booking is intriguing.. |
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4.50 Newmarket Arkle Finance Handicap 1M G/S
a Tricky looking handicap in which the handicapper looks to have given many a decent chance and it would be no surprise to see this be a blanket finish today with many handicapped to around the same mark to performance. Crown Counsel comes into the race off the back of a decent effort here on the 22nd September and could well reproduce that sort of level of performance today in a similiar type of handicap. However he most probably will find one or two too good for him today and if chapter and verse can return to his best form he would easily win this event today under one of the best 5lbs claimmer around at the moment in Michael Murphy. Chapter and verse on all weather form would have quite a few lbs in hand over these and showed too retain some of his ability when winning at Kempton 2 runs back over 7F. He makes some appeal in this and no surprise to see some support for him even though any ease in the ground should put pay to his chances as he has never looking through his form countered any going with soft in the title so the weather is a concern to him. Mawaakef looks up against it from a handicapping point of view with a couple of these and would be no surprise to see boogie shoes turn around the epsom form in which the Roger Varian charge never acted on the track. A improving type looks to hold the key to this handicap with Charlie Hills Basseterre potentially well treated if you can forgive the sandown effort in which he was slow away and coule never quicken to land a blow. Hefner for the Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes team could well be the answer to this handicap having suffered at Goodwood last time out in what looked a decent 3yo handicap won by a potential listed class improver in grandeur, I am prepared to forgive him that run over the 10F of Goodwood as it could be said that they wasnt his optimum conditions and there is nothing to suggest that he wasnt going the right way prior to that when winning back to back races at Kempton & Ascot. The head win at Ascot should reflect this kind of race and in dubai dynamo he beat a conssitent 90+ rated handicapper, the form of that race hasnt really panned out but Hefner could well improve for a return to this track having run with credit at the craven meeting over 10F at this track when finishing 7th to Main Sequence who has finished runner up in two classics since that day. The handicap Hefner contested that day was a hot race and he didnt quite get home and I expect better of him today after a very lightly campagined 3yo career so far and any give in the ground will only help his chances here. Boogie shoes, Mawaakef and Norse Blues all ran against each other over course and distance back in May and there is no reasons to suggest why Boogie shoes cant confirm the form. Verdict - a very tricky handicap in which stakes should be kept to a minimum as a few of these have question marks hanging over them. Boogie Shoes has course form with a few of these that suggest the top weight should go close and at 7-1 looks a fair reflection of his chances, while chapter and verse could easily win this today if returning to his best turf form he is potentially very well treated on all weather form but the ground could well be a issue today so the overnight value has seemingly gone (14-1 last night). The 3yo fits the mould of this race with 3/7 winners (including boogie shoes) and HEFNER at 6-1 looks to me to hold a decent enough chance to be given ago at that price for Hannon/Hughes here and is the e/w bet for me today. Advised bet - Hefner 0.5pts e/w @ 6-1 (blue cube) |
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2.20 Newmarket Nayef Joel Stakes Group 2 Class 1 3yo+ 8F G/S
The Best place to start with over this mile I feel is with Richad Hannon 3yo Trumpet Major the impressive Craven winner who deadheated in what looks a decent Throughbread stakes at glorious goodwood under his group penalty and both of these runs standout on his form this season. There is no doubts with him on the course or the conditions today and he should run a decent race as he has been consistent this season despite two lasts in which he was beaten far in either of those competitons, the concern with him has to be the fact that his worse performance on my ratings came in his last race at Goodwood when last in a group 2 behind Premio Loco who he reopposes here today. There can be excuses put into place on Trumpet Major run that day as it was the smallest field he has contested this season and never really raced up with the pace which the winner made all over, With his best performances this season coming in Group 3 class races he should hold his own in this group 2 company while the course and ground are ideal for him to give his true running and he just comes out on top on my ratings of the runners in this race with a 125 mark. The next two on my ratings are Fanualter & side glance on a mark of 124 on their best performances this calander year and the former who didnt give his running at meydan earlier in the year returned to these shores to put up a decent effort over the stiff 8F of Ascot in the summer mile stakes in which he held off the late challange of Pastrol Player who was beaten just a neck and has gone well again since, the price on offer for Fanualter could well be overpriced in regards to the conditions and the course type and maybe the stable has been under estimated by the bookies for this as you can get a double figure price at the moemnt in which I wouldnt put anyone off. Side Glance has had a tough season and been set some pretty hefty targets such as trying to lower Frankel colours at Royal Ascot this season in which he didnt run a bad race, however his York 2nd to Dubai Prince looks to be his best performance this season even though he finished 2nd I felt he potentially was a shade unlucky in that event to which he finished in front of sir michael stoute Tazahum who he meets again here today, the epsom win showed he is useful over the extended mile on a easy track, so the reverting to a stiffer 8F should help him and 7/1 looks a fair relection on his chances. Jovaility(123), Most improved (122)and Premio Loco (122) are the next trio and John Gosdon had a decent first day as he bids to win the trainers championship and his filly Jovaility peaked when winning the Windsor forest stakes a Group 2 race and that was a decent effort, however she threw in a stinker when not liking the testing conditions at the july meeting and has since been transfered to amercia and back since so her well being has to be taken on trust with the travel in between. Most Improved peaked when winning the St james Palace stakes at the Royal Meeting but didnt fair to well when taking on his elders in France, he needs to bounce back to form but does have form in the book in which he finished in front of Trumpet Major in the Dewhurst back last autumn even though 2yo form is never a true guide to thses types of races. Premio Loco would most probably be a surprise winner of this event given he is now 8yo and this looks highly competitive and would be the oldeat winner in the last decade of this race. the rest of the ratings - Tazahum 121, Pentient 119, Sovergin Debt 118, Stipulate 118, Saigon 110 verdict - Fanunalter did nothing wrong when winning at big odds at Ascot 2 runs back and shouldnt be as big a price as he is for this, but for the winner I do Like the chances of TRUMPET MAJOR of Richard Hannon who has strong pieces of course form to his name, he looks the pick of the 3yo with Most Improved having to carry a group 1 penalty in this today looking like his chances may have gone for that victory. Side Glance if not feeling the effects of a long season is the danger in this event. Advised bet - Trumpet Major 1pt e/w @ 13-2 (Billys) |
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heh gringo your horses ran peesh
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Thats not very nice..
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3.40 Newmarket The Cambridgeshire Handicap 9F Good 35 runners class 2 Handicap
Toughest of handicaps to solve and the stamina should come into play today over this 9F with such a large field going to post and a horse that stays the trip is certainly needed and mainly form over 10F. Chill the Kite comes into this race of the back of a ok run in a listed race which was most probably his best run to date and he looks like he could well be ahead of the handicapper and the only concern is that this is the toughest test of stamina to date and that maybe the only reason why he doesnt go off favourite. The favourites in this handicap hasnt fared well in the recent past and the winner of this handicap in the last few years has been a decent handicapper rather then group horses and that may well be why the last few years hasnt been won by favourites in this event. Stevie thunder was 2nd in this 12 months ago to prince of Johanne and meets that rival on much better terms for Ian Williams and should run a big race again here today after that effort 12 months ago and he has shown form in the past two runs to suggest that he is primed for a big run today and his double carpet price of 33-1 is looking like a big price for this. Roger Varian Mijhaar has stamina and that should help and he has looked like a horse that needs to be targeted at this sort of racce and should go well providing no stumbling or trouble is meet in running today, he is the one who looks handicapped well for this who is likely to see out the trip well and should be thereabouts today. The last two that catch the eye in this event is David o'meara Anderiego who looks in need of a stiffer test of stamina and has a feather weight for this after his useful claimmer takes off a vital 7lbs of his back and he is of interest for a inform yard and the other is Godolphins Start Right who has always looked a type to win a big handicap and this has been on the cards for the horse since the ground went against him in the 2010 renwal of this event, he has been campagined over further with this in mind and has caught the eye on a few occasions so far most notablly at Glorious Goodwood when sticking on behind Landaman and that effort would be a similair test of stamina and speed that would be needed for a event such as this. Verdict - Chill the Kite could well win this with a bit in hand if he can see out the trip and the same could be said about Anderigo of avid o'Meara. However this has always looked like a good chance for Roger Varian Mijhaar to finally record a big handicap win his efforts have deserved. Start Right looks the best of the Godolphin pair for this, while Stevie Thunder at 33-1 looks too big to totally discounnt for this as he looks to be refinding his form and needs this tougher test of stamina. Advised bet - MIJHAAR 1pt e/w @ 12-1 & Stevie Thunder 1pt e/w @ 33-1 (both lads) |
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3.00 Newmarket The Sun chariot stakes Group 1 8F Good
1 - CHACHAMAIDEE - One of two 4yo to contest this group 1 and in recent years the older horses have done well in this race but with only 25% of the field they may struggle to stop the 3yo regaining the winning trend in this race. Sir Henry Cecil has a strong hand in this Group 1 today with 25% of the field and will know excatly what to expect of his Mare who has steadily found her form this season and in her most recent run over in Ireland seemingly improved on her form to get back to the level she showed in this very race 12 months ago when finishing a close enough 2nd to 3 times winner Sahpesha. She looks to need a mile these days as she didnt have to be at her best to land the Goodwood group 2 Lennox Stakes that is her race it seems. She ran well in the windsor forest stakes over a mile in which she just couldnt muster enough to overcome a stronger stayer. Her reward for a decent season came in Marton Stakes at the curragh last time out where she was rewarded the race in the stewards room. Based on the way the race panned out that day their is no reason why she shouldnt confirm that running with Laugh out Loud who finished back in 4th but put up her best that day as well and being a 3yo could improve to bridge the gap even though alot will depend on just how this race will be run as Chachamaidee is likely to be held up to get the trip today. 2 - SIYMOUA - The only french raider with the change of hands of beauty parlour too Sir Henry Cecil and Simyoua ran a decent race when 3rd in the Falmouth Stakes in very soft conditions at the July meeting, that day she finished behind Elusive Kate who had more of the run of the race in the conditions that day as Siymoua tried to give weight and ground in those conditions in not the most soundly run Group 1 in history and with the 5lbs swing also in her favour there is every chance that she will benefit more under today conditions so a case can be made for her to turn around the falmouth form. She turned the form around under quicker conditions when contesting 10F in france with Falmouth winner Giofra and if they go hard enough in front today she will be doing her best work at the finish, but that once again depends on the pace angle so she is considered, on RPR she ran a similiar ability race in france over 10F as she did under soft conditions over a mile at the july meeting so she will need the strong pace over this mile under good conditions I feel today. 3 - BEAUTY PARLOUR - The Stable change looks like it was with this Group 1 in mind for this unbeaten filly over a mile and the winner of the Poule D'eassai Des Pouliches was once regarded as a Arc hopefull with the thought behind her progressing over further in which she has tasted defeat in since this day on her last run for her former trainer, she wasnt disgraced over 10.5F and in fact put up her best rating when only finding one too good and maybe with less aggressive tactics she could have won that day so be no surprise to See Sir henry Cecil put another attempt into her over 10F before the season is out even though she only holds a arc entry at the moment and that looks very unlikely with her taking this event on and if she wins this today she will most probably end up contesting the mile on champions day now that stablemate will be aimed at the champion stakes. Beauty Parlour mile form looks solid given she put up a 126 rating when beating up who reopposes here and the strong pace that day set it up for both her and up to readily stay on but Beauty Parlour under a typical confident Christophe Soumillon was worthy of a extra couple of lengths and with stamina proven she should no be inconvined to the conditions of this race even though she is another that races of the pace. 4 - ELUSIVE KATE - was europes top rated 2yo filly last year and returned very much overpriced in the Falmouth stakes after pulling out of Royal Ascot as not quite up to scratch to do herself justice and John Gosdon looks after this talented female who had the run of the race in the Falmouth when only finding one quite possiablly fitter then her and she had Simyoua behind that day and while there can be a case to say she will struggle to confirm the form this bonny little horse will not be inconvined today if their isnt enough pace on as she is will cut out the running and better ground suits her just as much as well. She has won since the falmouth when confirming form with Golden Lilac under conditions that would have suited that rival more then the soft conditions at the July meeting and she confirmed what a decent horse she is with her second group 1 of her short career. She is very tough and she proved that when battling on too the line on her most recent effort which was a PB even though once again it paid to be up with the pace (first 3 home were always fighting the pace) she showed she is in good heart taking on the colts and her elders. 5 - GAMILATI - Godolphins runner in this race doesnt hold much hope on the book and this has turned into a race that the boys in blue dont really point their strongest fillies towards and while she is a group 2 winner in her own right after winning the Cherry Hinton as a 2yo she hasnt been knocking the house down with her form as a 3yo and the close 2nd in the Sceptre Stakes looks a weak group 3 piece of form and she hasnt quite found her form from Dubai. She needs to find some form on the book to really have a say and while she could be regarded as fresher then some of her rivals having only had two runs since the dubai carnival she is another who isnt ridden to aggressivly over a mile to get the trip and her latest effort over 7F she was handy enough to do her self justice with her stamina confirmed and she readily picked off with not too much fuss, it was better then her seasonal debut at Goodwood when never a factor. 6 - LA COLLINA - Another that was in the Irish Matron Stakes at the Curragh and was readily beaten by both uk raiders she reopposes today and she stuck on that day from the rear in which she really had to be pushed to just get into contention and while the pace of that race maybe didnt totally suit her she has nothing from that run to suggest that she can reverse the form with Chachmaidee today and with the way the race is looking like it will be ran she may well struggle to travel kindly enough to have a say in a group1 again. She has ground to make up on UP from running over a stiffer test of stamina when never able to a blow over 9f in a group 3 she will benefit if the pace isnt too strong and looks one to drop back in trip to 7F on the pick of her form, she hasnt really trainned on from the group1 she won as a 2yo. 7 - LAUGH OUT LOUD - Should benefit for the way this race is likely to be run and that could help her to bridge the gap with Chachamaidee on their running in the Maton stakes in which she was no match for the turn of foot of the Henry Cecil runner and even though this could well be more her kind of race and she could reverse the form she does need to find improvement as well on her running. She was dissapointing in the Coronation stakes when finishing 5th as she had the run of the race and John Gosdon should know that Elusive kate will have her measure from the front of the field for this. 8 - UP - Aiden O'Brien looks to win yet another uk Group1 and UP is one of the more exposed 3yo in the field today having been reguallay campagined throughout the season over a variety of trip and comes into this race having refound her best form after never really building on the performance behind Parlour Beauty earlier in the season and while she has place claims she does have a to find improvement to reverse the form with parlour Beauty here who has progressed in her lightly raced 3yo campagin. UP last two runs has proven that she is worth another attempt over further as she stayed on well over the extended mile at the Curragh and then over 10F she won again in races below group 1 level but with them she put up efforts that were as worthy as her runner up in france over a mile. Id be surprised if Aiden O'Brien doesnt adapt new tactics for this tough galloper as she wasnt good enough to beat Parlour Beauty from the rear as that rival had a better turn of foot so I wouldnt be surprised to see Joseph giving Up a more aggressive ride given that she has proven stamina and she could be the one to upset the apple cart here. Verdict - This does look a striaght match up between Elusive Kate and Parlour Beauty with the French raider Simouya the eye catching of the 4yo if Up does help to force the pace with Elusive Kate and laugh out loud, however I cant see this being run at a strong enough pace for Her to come into play as she will need this whole galloping mile to upset the principals. Up is the outsider who could potentially upset this straight match up and whilst it is fascinating renwal with plenty of possiables the run f the race could well mean Elusive Kate will be hard to beat even though Beauty Parlour could improve for Henry cecil and get well into the mid to late 130 on the RPR ratings. ADVISED bet - Elusive Kate 1pt win @ 5-2 |
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Chief, nearly talked myself into a small bet on Stevie Thunder with B365 @ 40's, but refrained. Looks a decent race for the spectator, and after making a decent enough case for half the field that's exactly what I'll be. Best of Luck.
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3.55 Epsom Handicap 3yo+ 0-95 10F G/S
1 - RESURGE Comes into this handicap having retainned his ability this season even though he is yet to rediscover the level of form that sure him win the investec investement stakes last June off a mark of 97 in which he had Right Step behind him in 2nd and that piece of form standsup as the strongest piece of uk form on offer. Right Step is 4lbs better off at the weights from that day 16 months ago, however looking at the form pattern so far this season it is apparent that Resurge has retainned more of his ability from that day. Looking at the form of the gelding through out this season he ran well to win at Chester in soft conditions over 10 furlongs at the chester cup meeting in which the strongest pace set it up nicely for a closer that day, he then under a penalty ran well at the derby meeting in which he finished behind one of todays rivals Borug and in the process putting up a 6lbs worse effort then that rival. Both took similiar paths in that handicap and on the weights strictley today it should be differcult for Resurge to turn around the form however recent form is patchy. 2 - VASILY First run at the Epsom course and needs the ground to dry out which is a possiability given the weather forecast for the track today, he finished last at Windsor in soft conditions latest and the handicap that was in softer conditions at the newmarket July course earlier this season was in conditions that could be ragarded as unsuitable in a event that has really worked out well. The turning track of Windsor seems to be the ideal track for him with his winning coming their over a mile and half and the downhill turning track of Epsom is a unknown under a sharp trip, a win at Brighton earlier in his days suggest these types of tracks hold no fear for the horse but I would have concerns with the trip for him today as he does look like a horse that stays well. The fact he likes to make the running could help his chances if there is a lack of pace in this race. 3 - RIGHT STEP Course and distance winner back at the starte of the season benefitted that day from the heavy going in which he was raised 7lbs in the weights for and with that cam a struggle to get competitive as the handicap he won many suffered in the extreme conditions, the last 3 runs at York twice and Goodwood have been very poor efforts and he looks to be struggling for any sign of form, he has fallen back below his winning mark from the start of the season and now finds himself 1lb lower in the weights that day. A better show should be had back at Epsom as his course form is solid and he is better weighted with resurge on their run last June 2011. Michael Murphy claim would have put him below this mark and even though the 12F could have stretched his stamina he still should have performed better so I would be surprised if he can reproduce the level of performance today to win. 4 - JOHN BISCUIT Has steadily improved this season to be at this mark and with drying ground in his favour he does make some appeal, however the last run at York looked to have halted his progress as there was no real reason why he was beaten so readily behind kirthill (finished in front of right step). The return to 10F should help his chances today as well even though the 12F run at Ascot was a slight improvement on his previous run over 10F at the same track, his win at epsom previous to that he stayed on readily and if they go a good enough gallop he is another that will be advanataged by a end to end gallop in this. 5 - BRUNSTON Return to the turf today and surely in prep for a jumps winter campagin for Brenden Powell and whilst he has some decent form in the book over 10F it isnt anything out of the oridnary and you have got to factor in his liking for quick conditions underfoot yet they have campagined him over the summer jumping timber. Once a winner of the Spring cup as a 40-1 shot he does clearly have the ability to beat these off his current mark but there is quite a few question marks against him to be highly considered for this event today. 6 - LYSSIO Started this season with come tough asks in the winter derby and Gordon Richard Stakes at Sandown in heavy conditions which was way behind his level of ability and he was readily tailed off. He has since benn given more of a chance by his handler and steadily showed form until winning over course and distance at the end of August in which he had the run of the race as the first two home was 1st and 2nd throughout the contest. His main advanatage today could be a easy lead unless Splendid light or Vasily rake him on for the lead and set it up for a closer. His task is harder by the penalty but even without the jockey claim this time around he does come into the race in posiablly the best form of the runners today if you forgive his recent polly track effort in which he was far to aggressivly ridden. 7 - SPLENDID LIGHT The John Gosdon yard should know what it would take to win this handicap on a line with gatewood who won here in June from Borug and Splendid Light who is raced completley different to his stablemate (same owners) as he likes to force the pace up front and could well have the run of the race even though this track does play to the strength of those held up. Splendid Light was allotted quite a high mark for his made all victory over 11F at Kempton and will need to find improvement having looked handicapped past his best on turf debut back in April, the absence can only suggest that he had some problems and maybe hadnt recovered from them when dissapointing in april and I just feel he may well not be the best betting proposition at around 5-1 on a tricky track if he has got problems. 8 - DEIRE NA SLI has had a mixed season so far this year and best performance came at this track when finishing 4th to Highland Knight who was bit of a handicap blot that day and made all over the 9F of this track and it could be said that the rest in the field was inferior to the winner who has gone on to hold his own in listed and group 3 stakes races. Since that race she had proved to be below the class 2 handicap sphere being well beaten at Sandown by Trade Commissioner and then tailing off in a ascot big race handicap behind field of dreams. The last run was ok at Sailsbury in which they finished in a bit of a heap and he maybe does need this further trip which he encounters today as he stays on well and even if they dont go so quick he maybe is the one who could come with a rattle home. His best RPR in ireland was over 9-10F so there is everychance a return to form today given his low mark and 25-1 is too big a price I feel 10 - BORUG Has form to go close if the right horse turns up today as he has the beating of Resurge on their running behind Gatewood at this track, needs to be held up to get the trip, connections will be hoping that the John Gosdon horse does serve it upto Lyssio at the head of the field today to make it a evenly contested race in which if he is on top of his game is certainly one that will be suited to the track and conditions. The Windsor form behidn Vasily he is entitled to reverse today having been held up to get the trip and the front two never really being pressed if turned out to be that the run of the race went against Borug that day, he also finds himself running over his favoured trip today in comparison to that rival having clocked his two best efforts at Newmarket and Epsom over 10F earlier in the season, add to that the weights are in his favour he should be able to reverse the form here today. He caught the eye at Goodwood a couple of runs back behind Landaman and his form on downhill tracks looks to be very much to his liking. verdict - Lot could depend on the pace angle as Lyssio could get a easy time on the front end if Splendid Light faulters on his return from a absence and while you could make a case that Vasily has to cut out the running over shorter then his optimum trip you cant be sure those tactics will be deployed here, So the held up horse may well suffer against those who may get first run. However this track does enable those held up to come with a strong run from the rear and if good enough or too well handicapped in this instance you can overcome the lack of pace. Borug would be the one to take from the formbook against others in a similiar boat and at 5-1 looks the e/w bet to nothing here as he shouldnt have any excuses however at a big 25-1 odds on offer DEIRE NA SERI is taken as the chance bet with just 9 runners and doubts over a fair few of these in terms of recent form, pace and handling of the track I think she could well cause a shock in this. Advised Bet - DEIRE NA SERI 1pt e/w @ 25-1 |
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Good to see you posting your in depth previews again WC, good luck with todays outsider.
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ffs well chef, you get rsi scrolling down this mother and nowts even placed yet, less talking more........everything really
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[u]3.30 Ascot Wear it pink Handicap Class 2 12F G/S[/u]
1 - FATTSOTA Is bang in form at the moment having ran well at the St Leger meeting a couple of weeks back in which he was just denied by Viking Storm over 12 furlongs and that was off the back of a decent win over todays track and distance. Any give in the ground should help him as he enjoys to get his toe in and apart from the 9F event at the Guineas meeting he has progressed steadily as a 4yo and should give his running once again despite the 3lbs rise in the weight for his head defeat last time out. 2 - TROPICAL BEAT Ran a ok race when finishing 8th in a bunch finish at Kempton back in June and then progressed when stepped up to 10F on the all weather when finishing well with a sustained run from the rear and there should be more to come from the horse when he is returned to the all weather for a decent handicap. Worse effort so far this season was here over 12F behind Fattsota who he opposses today on 3lbs better terms then he did that day and was slightly unlucky this day at Ascot as he was stopped in his progress from the rear. The effort at Sandown behind Encke (st Leger winner) was a decent effort over a stiff 10F on GS ground and that day he had Fattsota behind him, the Haydock run more recent behind Sir Graham Wade suggested that Stamina is his strong point and this 12F under these conditions providing its a end to end gallop should she him go close. 3 - MULAQEN Was far too good for class 4 company when really producing the goods at York earlier in the season and comes into this handicap more fresh then quite a few of these. The performances since being upped in class have been a mixed bag as the 13lbs rise in the weights may have been a slightly harsh rise in the weights by the assessor and the Royal ascot performance behind Camborune he was well beaten suggesting he is a little short at this level even though the run at The July course in early June behind High Jinx suggested he could hold his own at this level, Rain would increase his chances as the softer the better for his chances. 4 - VOODOO PRINCE Maybe needed the run when reappearing at Newmarket over a mile in soft conditions and has progressed nicely this season since given a stiffer test of stamina and the listed affair latest when failing to overcome the small field pace at Goodwood over 10F in soft conditions proved that he is going the right way after previously winning with a little in hand at Ripon on what was his 2nd try over 10F and a long overdue try again at this distance having previously shown to be effective over 10F at Haydock in a class 4 handicap which he ran with much credit. Only 5lbs higher then his Ripon win he is due to be raised a stone for his Listed affair effort and while this is a much stiffer test of stamina then 10F at Ripon and Goodwood it looks like their hand has been forced to get him a race before he is hit with that rise in the weights. 5 - ROYAL PECULIAR Sir Henry Cecil is in decent form at present and his Royal Peculiar whose only plemish on his record was when trying to force the pace over 14F at Sailsbury and finishing tailed off has been consistent despite that run saving his 3 best efforts for his 12F on easier tracks then he contests today. A winter campagin in the top handicaps is on the cards for this horse having shaped so well on both his all weather runs looking above average when landing his maiden a tad easier then his winning distance would have suggested. The conditions underfoot are likely to be completely different to the York run and he has a 2lbs rise for that York performance to overcome here as well today. There could be further improvement only having had 5 runs and he is respected but there are question marks to be answered 6 - HANOVERIAN BARON Bath Winner 2 runs back when dropped to class 4 company which he was too good for and if he gets in could well go well again in the November handicap at his beloved Doncaster which despite the last behind Sir Graham wade latest he wasnt beaten far and si run a decent race despite finsihing last of a bunched field. Has had quite a few lasts so far this season and the York and Goodwood efforts he was well beaten in both of these runs and was in the process dropped 11LBS which helped him to get into the Bath Class 4 Handicap in which he bounced back to form much better then he had been running, This looks a tough ask for at Ascot over 12F being much more exposed then many of these and he looks a low 80 rated horse. 7 - SILVER LIME Two 3yo handicaps at Goodwood saw him put up decent efforts in both of those handicaps and with it he looked ready to take on his elders in handicap as he was a horse going the right way and that progression of 12lbs in the weights saw him run a ok race behind Kirthill at York 12F track in which he was beaten by both Martin Chuzzlewit & Tropical Beat and the latter is worse off at the weights with both the 3yo in today's handicap. Silver lime bounced back to form the next time out when paired by in a 3yo handicap at Ascot in which he had Martin Chuzzlewit in behind this day and showed a liking for the stiffer test of stamina even though the going was ont he faster side of good this day. James Doyle returns to the saddle to re-pick up the partnership and he could well be one to beat if reproducing that Ascot run latest but the conditions are likely to be not as quick today so slight caution is needed with him as he is best on top of the ground on the book. 8 - MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT Ran well against his elders at York in which he finished in front of tropical beat and Silver Lime and could well confirm form with both of these today under these conditions even though he has to perform much better then he did when wll beaten here last time (behind silver Lime that day). The latest effort at Doncaster he finished behind Fattsota and that was still a respectable effort in which he has been dropped 1lb in the weights for and while he was fairly beaten that Day by the marco Botti horse he can draw hope that he finds himself a couple of lbs better off at the weights and with a liking for soft conditions (chester form suggests soft suits) in his favor he could well run a big race under Richard Hughes. 9 - HENRY CLAY Dissapointed latest on the all weather when well beaten by Position and finishing 7th for Mark Johnston who is souble handed at the foot of the weights for this handicap and Henry Clay is a heavily raced 3yo who ran well in a class 4 handicap behind at newbury on his last turf run and enjoys on the top of the ground surface which he isnt certain to get today, Frankie Dettori looks like he has picked up a spare for Mark Johnston today with Joe Fanning partnering the stablemate Party Line and im not quite sure he will see the 12F out well enough here today as frankie will likely give him a positive ride as he is best when racing with the pace. 10 - PARTY LINE Joe Fanning partners this Montjeu Filly who has been on the go quite a bit this season and progressed nicely through out the summer and always runs here race no matter what conditons she is paired with and her least impressive performance was most probably at catterick over 12F on going with firm in the title and she does look at her best being able to get her toe in with solid efforts at Chester, Newcastle and more recently at haydock when failing to see out the 14F that day. Wins this season has been on going decribed as good ground and she has got a tougher task as they were at a lower level but the drop back to 12F today should see her run her race as she suggested she was more then capable in a class 2 latest in which she just didnt last home. Verdict - Decent middle distance handicap in which Party Line looks the pick of the Mark Johsnton pair. Fattsota, Martin Chuzzlewit, Silver Lime and Tropical beat all have decent class 2 form that ties in with each other and Voodoo Prince is a interesting runner as he is due to be raised a stone in weights and looks like he is given this mile and half target with that in mind as there were limited choices for him to get a run in before he is raised in the weights. The Mobile stakes hold the key for me in this handicap and even though the stiffer track may well see Tropical Beat come out on top this time around I am going to stick with MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT for this who did well to last the trip out having been raced postivly throughout the race and still managed to be there at the finish off a strong pace and with Richard Hughes booked for the ride this time around the suggestion is that he can leave his Doncaster effort behind which he was dropped in and the ascot run prior a case can be made for the ground disliking and the fitting of blinkers this time rather then a visor for a yard that excel with use of headgear is another factor to draw some hope from. ADVISED BET - Martin Chuzzlewit 2pt e/w @ 9-1 (slybet) |
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3.35 Ascot Challange Cup Handicap class 2 7F Soft
1 - Edingbrugh Knight Ran well when finishing 2nd in the Crietrion stakes to Liberianno at Newmarket in the summer and while that was a weak looking group 3 he ran a decent race and was in form when finishing 2nd over C&D to Filed of Dream and while he is 3lbs higher in the weights then that day he does run well over Seven furlongs here on the best of his form, the Ground today however is a concern if further rain hits the track as even though he did run well on Good to soft ground at Newcastle last season he has more often then not perfered on top of the ground. 2 - Set the trend Won a conditions event latest and comes into this back in form and the return to handicap company is set to suit having found group company a shade too high for him to land a race with mainly contesting group 2 races and more recently a Group 3 at Sailsbury where he was beaten by Tulius. A Course winner over a mile he does handle soft conditions underfoot well so there could be reason for optimisim given that stamina is assured for this event today. 3 - Captain Ramius The Ayr Gold cup winner stayed on strongly at Ayr in desperate conditions underfoot and his stamina helped him to win that handicap of a 6lbs lower weight then he carries today as he had previously done all his winning over todays trip to which he is likely to go well again in with form on slow going and a course winner over 7 Furlongs when putting up a decent effort here last season off 20lbs lower then he runs off today and with the Bunbury cup 3rd reading well as well in reference to this event today he should give his running with much in his favour as he did look a potential group class horse when winning at Ayr Last time out. 4 - Skilful 3 recent runs in listed races suggested that a return to softer conditions will suit his chances as their is potentially more to come in regards to his progression as he is still lightly tried as a 4yo abd comes into this race as one of the fresher runners in the race. The Windsor run stacks up well and that was over a mile, but given the stronger race and stiffer track today the drop back in trip shouldnt hinder his chances in this wide open handicap. The return to handicap company is a plus for his chances having showen to be a decent handicapper when winning over a mile at Haydock last season, he is however 12lbs higher then that day in the weights but has readily improved based on his listed performance and could be hard to peg back under these conditions. 5 - Bannock Has paid with the handicapper since his 2yo days and still hasnt been given respite by the assesor despite some disspaointing efforts as a 3yo. Chester run was decent over a mile but a far cry from what type of race he contests today and his ascot form reads as poor efforts in the Jersey stakes, then two handicaps on good & GF ground over course and distance and a easier type of track looks he prefer and based on the Newamrket form their is little reason to believe he can reverse the form with top weight Edingbrugh Knight. The return to softer conditions could see him bounce back to some sort of form, but he does look a little up agaisnt it here. 6 - Prince of Johanne The cambridgeshire winner from 2011 and this years royal hunt cup winner is a non-runner for this. 7 - Imperial Guest Has been a solid handicapper this season with good efforts when denied in the Stewards cup over six furlongs and then when he followed that run up with a course win at Goodwood over seven furlongs on ground just on the soft side of good. A Regular at this track and wasnt beaten to far in the Victoria cup here earlier in the season behind Hlobal Village and that race should have some barring on this result today as its under sililiar conditions and if it was run on better ground then Imperial Guest may have performed much better as this season has proved he was well handicapped that day and he doesnt really perform to as high level on soft ground. 8 - Filed of Dream Better weighted with both Dont Call Me and Imperial Guest and allways seems to give his running over this course which plays to his strength but there is some concerns over the ground conditions as he has often performed below his best when paired with ground with soft in the title, sure to go well in this handicap if the ground was to be on the good side, he is another one connections will be hopping that the morning stays dry and no more rain hits the course. 9 - Dont Call me Was well handicapped when winning at this track last time out beating imperial Guest in the finish and despite the rise in the weights he does handle the softer conditions maybe better then those that finished close enough to have the swing in the weights in their favour. The Haydock win earlier in the season in a class 3 handicap along with the 3rd in the Royal Hunt cup suggest that he has the stamina to last out the trip out well under thses softer conditions and it be no surprise to see him confirm form with imperial guest under these conditions. 10 - Belgian Bill Outclassed latest in a group 2 and had previously run his first real decent race this season when not beaten far at goodwood over a mile and maybe the more speed type tracks are to his liking and a return to the all weather is likely to be fruitful at some point over the winter months. ties in the form of the royal hunt cup and the buckingham palace stakes at Royal Ascot having ran similiar types of races in terms of stamina and buckingham palace stakes seem to be the stronger effort out of the two. The 2lbs rise in the weights for the group 2 effort seems a little harsh and makes his task of reversing form with Global Village and Jamesie a more differcult task. 11 - Regal Parade Was doing his best work at the finish in the Ayr Gold Cup a track that he often performs his best races and while he has claims of reversing the form given the way the race finished and the weights and trip oon that evidence suiting him you have to take into account that this 8yo best form does come on a flat galloping track such as Newbury and Ayr and despite a win over 7F at this track way back in his history there is some limitations to his stamina and maybe todays conditions will just stretch him. 12 - Brae Hill Ran a ok race in the Ayr gold cup when finishing 6th and this seasons Lincoln handicap winner and last season Bunbury cup winner is slowly falling back down the handicap ladder to a winnerable mark even though it is unlikely to be until next season when he is back on a winning mark and then he will be 7yo and possiablly on the decline in terms of handicaps. Constantly on the go he has form at this track and under soft conditions when 4th in the Victoria cup in which he is most probably just about weighted to reverse the form with Global Village weven though that rival beat brae hill a shade easy and while these races are what Brae Hill is about he is maybe just in the grip of the handicapper for a couple of more lengths. 13 - Cape Classic Dissapointed latest at Newmarket and is turned out quickly to make amends, but their are limitations it seems to his ability to stay at this level and at Newmarket on Good ground he failed to see out the trip. Brilliant wins at Doncaster over 7F and Windsor 6F this season suggest he does like the easier stamina tracks and its twice now since winning at Windsor over 6F that he has flopped at Newmarket this season and with Ascot being soft going and just as stiff if not more stiff then Newmaarket he could well struggle to see out the trip here. 14 - Arnold Lane A very consistent performer who has ran two similiar types of runs at Ascot this season against same age group and his elders and was just denied at Goodwood on good to soft ground when Imperial Guest pipped him in the shadows of the post and maybe he just didnt quite see out the trip. One to keep on the right side off because his winning cant be far off, its just a matter of Mick Channon finding the ideal race for him and Doncaster 7f handicap might just be the race for him so one to keep in mind. The ground have seemly gone against him as a sound surface seems to suit and his best chance was last time at this track when the ground was on the quick side of good and he did fail to see it out in what was just as competitive as this handicap today. 15 - Excellent Guest A lot better last season then this season even though he did run a cracker in the Royal Hunt cup when just finding Prince of Joanne too strong over a mile here and that performance may well stand him good stead for this with the possiability that stamina will be needed. His form over 7F at this track doesnt read too badly and the 2lbs dropped in the weights for this from his last in the cambridgeshire does give him a better chance as he did go well in the Goodwood mile handicap at this years Gloruis goodwood meeting. the performance before the cambridgshire wasnt much better as he finished down the field behind dont call me, but even at his favoured track his performances with firm in the title is a little below par, the softer conditions should help his chances as 7F on rattling ground is too sharp it seems these days and he has fallen back to his victoria cup mark which he ran well below par so while there are claims there is also question marks and that last run in the cambridgshire was just no sort of run what so ever to draw any real hope. 16 - Captain Bertie needs soft conditions and really caught the eye at doncaster lincoln meeting over a mile behind norse blues in which he was a unlucky loser and then made amends when beating Victoria Cup winner Global Village in the spring cup under soft conditions and if you use the run in this season Bunbury cup as a pointer as well behind bonnie brae (captain ramius 3rd) he is a mudlark who saves his best for ground he gets his toe in. The goodwood mile form was a flop from Captain Berie point of view but he should go well in this handicap today at Ascot and give a much better show then the Royal hunt cup run which once again maybe the ground wasnt ideal for him, the drop back to 7F could well favor Global Village more at the weights but Captain Bertie is the younger and potentially the more progressive since they meet in the spring cup. 17 - Global Village 7F soft ground form stacks up well in this season Victoria cup and Buckingham palace stakes and while on both pieces ofo form he has a strong chance there are more younger progressive runners to either turn arund the form or comfirm the running with. Ryan Clark 3lbs looks to offset some of the weight to length negatives he has against some rivals and he can be another that can discount the most recent 7F GF effort here behind Dont call me and should be thereabouts in this handicap today. 18 - Jamesie Went into many notebooks having won his race in the buckingham palace stakes with only to see eton forever on the otherside of the track and now finds himself worse of at the weights with Global Village on that piece of form, its hard to fathom if the conditions of the track did favor the farside that much to draw a strong conclusion for jamesie to confirm the running. Didnt handle the ground at Newmarket in the Bunbury cup and bounced back to better form in the stewards cup afterwards. Has had some tough asks this season and it has been quite a heavy campagin with a fair effort latest in Ireland. Captain Bertie holds himon bunbury cup form and johnny murtagh services have been atainned elsewhere in this handicap, but de sousa isnt a bad replacement. Verdict - Open as allways handicap and alot of these have chances, Skilfull should show more this time around and could go well but not entirley sure just how much to trust him while dont call me could wel confirm his form with those that finish close up to him here last time as the soft ground shouldnt be a problem for Dandy Nicholls 5yo. This could well fall to the spring winners in the shape of CAPTAIN BERTIE & Global Village (massive gamble in the Buckingham Palce stakes) who could well reverse the form with Jamesie here today, however Captain Bertie is one that loves this type of ground and has william Carson back in the saddle who partnered the horse to victory in the Spring cup at Newbury. captain Ramius should confirm ayr gold cup running with Regal Parade in a highly competitive handicap. Advised bet - Captain Bertie 1pt e/w @ 14-1 (Billys) |
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3.25 Longcamp L`arc De Triomphe 12F Heavy Group 1
1 - Sea Moon Hasnt quite achieved the performances at this level on the formbook and most probably put up his best effort in group 1's when 5th of 10 in the king george stakes at Ascot and that day he finished behind St Nicholas abbey who was his conquerer at the breeders cup just under 12 months ago. The conditions of todays race are alot more testing underfoot with the forecast ground being heavy and in French racing that is often extreme testing ground. What Sea Moon has in his favour is a liking to get his toe into the surface as he proved when winning his maiden at Yarmouth in Heavy ground, he hasnt contested a race in these condtions since but his best kind of form has been with soft in the going description. Today could represent his best chance in a group 1. 2 - St NIcholas Abbey A inbetween horse it seems as his best kind of form over 12F has come on tracks that are more sharp and quick then galloping or stiff where as over 10F on galloping flat tracks he has maybe found it a tad too quick. He has put up a decent group 1 win when winning the racingpost trophey as a 2yo and looked a horse of real potential back then, his 3yo campagin came to quick end after the 2000 Guineas and maybe if he had stayed a injury free he would have been a classic win as his form around Epsom is spectacualar even if the quaility of opposition in the Coronation Cup is a little short of top class. Finished in front of Sea Moon in the King George but not certain to confirm that form on ground softer then he would really want as he was very poor the last time he encountered ground as slow as this. 3 - Meandre Finished behind the Japenese hope Orfevre in a group 2 trail over course and distance and is a regular fixture around here, whether or not he is quite good enough to win a group 1 of this quaility is a question mark but with a few absentees he should be thereabouts at the finish having finished 6th in this event 12 months ago just behind St nicholas Abbey and even though he could reverse that form with the ballydoyle runner he has his work cut out to reverse recent running over C&D given how well that rival quickened to beat him a cozy length, stronger pace could mean he has a better chance but his only times encountering ground as soft as this he has failed to quicken and been very one paced including most recently at a group 3 level. 4 - Mikhail Glinka Odds suggest he is here to make up the numbers and looking through the majority of his form he is at best a group 3 performer even though his recent german group 3 win didnt take much winning. 5 - Robin Hood Just like Bullet Train will make hay for his more illustreious stablemates and will set the fractions up front, whether or not he could stick out the trip is to be seen but you would imagine once headed he wont be flogged too hard to be involved as he has only beaten 1 rival in last 4 runs. 6 - Ofevre Shame there are notable absentees from the Arc Lineup as the Japanesse star task has been made a lot easier then it originally was. Easy winner latest when beating rival Meadre over course and distance he can be rated a fair few lbs better then just the bare form. japan most recent triple crown winner should be there abouts and could well finally win the race for Japan who have gone close in recent years with their star 4yo and have the services of top french jock Christophe Soumillon. Biggest flop since 2yo days was when trying 2M in which he was sent off a warm favourite for he never got into contention and no wonder he has been dropped back to mid distances since, he has handled soft in his career so far but best form does seem to come on much quicker ground then contesting today so there could be reason to take him on with. 7 - Aventino Pace maker for stable star and likely to set the fractions with robin hood in this event today. Was beaten in trail as used as a pace setter. 8 - Shareta 2nd in this last year at 66-1 she is just below top class even though she has got group 1 success too her name when justy holding on from the fugee at York this season and more recently when winning a group 1 over course and distance in a average looking Qatar Prix Vermaille against her own sex and needs to step up on that form. Her effort in this race last year was a shock as she wasnt fancied and even though that rates as her best form to date she was the best of the rest in the race 12 months ago. She may struggle to reverse form with Meadre who had her measure at Saint cloud even though Shareta had the run of the race out the front. The Neck win in the Yorkshire oaks she outstayed the fugee who is better at 10F at the top level and she looks a class filly if not a world beater and is certainly a game runner in this and handles the ground. 9 - Haya Landa Well beaten in the september stakes at Kempton on the all weather and while better of turf is very much inferior to the top echelon of this race and will be racing for prize money at most so will be ridden accordingly. 10 - Solemia Has form that ties in with last years arc runner up Shareta and was no match for that rival in a group 1 latest over course and distance and its a struggle to see how she will reverse that form as she managed to turn that form around earlier in the season over 11F and the fact she is a mudlark given the favourable impression she made Prix Lord Seymour listed stakes which she was a class above those who contested that race and while she is decent on this type of ground she has got to find improvement on her group 1 form to have a say. 11 - Bayrir Still progressing and won well in amercia back in August in high profile colours of the aga Khan and even though Amercian Group 1 could be regarded as weak at some tracks, once you take into account the travelling etc it was still a promising performance and he is going the right way. A second over C&D in which he found just one too strong in the finish dampens the progression this horse had been showing but you could say he wasnt given too much of a hard time and the pace of the race wasnt the strongest suggesting that a stronger run race such as the arc would improve him. This is his first test at Group 1 level and while he is improving he may well not quite find enough to be involved with the very best as each of his runs havent been in the strongest of races for that level. 12 - Kesampour Finished behind Bayrir in a trail for this and cut out the slow pace that day in which he only beat one home and that has to go down as dissapoitning given that he had the run of the race from the front and he isnt likely to get that today, hs supporters can draw some hope from that the majority of progression have been under tough going in which he can set slow fractions in and with the ground on the slow side he maybe will be seen to much better effect here, but like Bayrir he does need to improve on his form but return to slow ground could well be the key for this horse. 13 - Camelot Was Unbeaten until tasting defeat in the st leger in his attempt to become the first colt to win the trile crown since Nijinsky and it was reported that the colt was never travelling after meeting interference early in the race so did very well to finish as close as he did to winner Encke that day. The Derby winner didnt need to be at his best to win the 2000 guineas in which he was the best horse in the race and he did step up on that when a very easy winner at Epsom over 12F with the young jockey so confident that you could have called him the winner 4F from home and you dont get too many classics won in such a easy manor, while you can question the opposstion it is apparent he was a class above them and Ballydoyle had held on to the name camelot for when they had what they see as a frankel type superstar amongst their rank and camelot is that horse. The drop back to 12F should suit and he was a Irish derby winner on heavy ground which didnt take much winning, his class got him home that day and while he hasnt been proven as not enjoying heavy ground he certainly isnt at his best on it and in a race that takes no prisioners there has to be a slight concern but quite a few of the principals are in the same boat. 14 - Masterstroke Has steadily improved and just picked the pocket of the progressive gatewood last time out over 13F and while the John Gosdon Gatewood is a highly progressive horse he isnt quite top class so in that scalp maybe masterstroke was entitled to beat him with him being placed as one of the more favoured runners for this race from the andre fabre stable. Only 6 runs so far in his short career he has taken a while to pick up a group race and often found one too good, but he may find more improvement the further he goes and with 13F being the pick of his form so far I would quite like to see him progressed to trying one of the cup races next season at York or goodwood as he looks the type to improve further he goes, Strong pace will help his chances in this. 15 - Ernest Hemingway Just another runner from Ballydoyle and one that has been of the track for sometime after being far too keen at York when beaten by the high profile flop bonfire whose 3yo career was also cut short, that race hasnt worked out well and maybe Ernest Hemigway flopping in it can be excused even though you have to really take a leap of faith that he could muster anything in a rae of thise magintude. 16 - Saonois 7 wins from 13 races he is in his own right a useful horse and quickened well latest of a slow pace to beat Bayrir, whether he can confirm the form it is to be seen as a stronger run race is sure to suit his rival today but he is the one 3yo if you look beyond camelot that comes into this race on top of his game. Kesampour has beaten him under conditions as soft as todays race over 10F and the race was run at a strong pace that day and he could never muster the speed or stamina to mount a challange. He has improved since that day and stepped up in trip but maybe the return to better ground did help him get back on track and the ground has to be a concern as there was no excuses for that effort that day. 17 - Yellow and Green She is certain to maybe apperciate slower ground today having found herself a little one paced behind Shareta latest over C&D and is going the right way, it would be no surprise to see her involved in the finsh today as this filly by Monsun is going the right way at present and was a easy winner in a group 2 at Saint cloud the time before and was clearly a class above those rivals. She should be helped with the stronger pace today and is held up to come with a run and even though you dont like to give too much ground away under these conditions she certainly could reverse the form of her last run. 18 - Great Heavens While Nathaniel has always been the stable great hope, Great Heavens is a filly of great potential and she was a brilliant winner of the Irish Oaks in soft ground in which the further they went the better she was and they went a sound enough gallop throughout the race and the harder they go in this the better she will settle as she does take a keen hold in her races and likes to be kept up to her work. She is certainly the best filly the Uk have to offer in terms of 3yo and she won the lancshire oaks the hard way from the front of the field. She handles soft ground and in some ways this race is the perfect race for her style of running, she holds the best chance of the females in Frances feature race and William Buick will be fresh and ready to go to give her the best chance she deserves. Verdict - The gloss has been taken of this race but the edition of classic winners Great heavens and Camelot have added some glamour back into the race and they can serve it up to the triple crown winner from Japan Ofereve who holds the hopes of the nation in what has been so many near misses such as the last triple crown winner deep impact who went so close. Sea Moon Has conditions and should give the returning Ryan Moore everychance in this and rates as the best Uk challange from the older brigade in this race. France seem to be lacking in there runners in this race this year and I feel Sir Michael Stoute SEA MOON who finished out of the frame for the first time when sent off favourite for the king george this season (last years clear cut arc winner won the race) can make amends this time around under conditions that should very much suit his prominent grinding style and at 10-1 looks a decent price to do so. Great heavens and japan's big hope are the biggest threat, while Camelot if handling the ground could come into play as his only effort on tough going he was a class above the rest. Advised bet - SEA MOON 1pt e/w @ 10-1 (365) |
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3.10 Pontefracht Totepool Package handicap 8F Good
1 – Asatir Won his first 3 races in good fashion including a handicap off the mark of 89 from Razorbill and that effort was bordering on class 2 handicap form on his handicap debut so it is a surprise he didn’t perform better at Glorious Goodwood when well beaten over 10 furlongs and maybe the track didn’t quite suit as he has ran a respectable race since over 10 furlongs on the all-weather. The drop back in trip to a mile should suit him however and if it stays dry he could well bounce back to form having ran well here the time before last in a similar type of race as he is more than capable in this class sphere. 2 – Fire Ship Was impressive last time out winning by a wide margin in which the conditions underfoot may have helped him to be a clear cut winner that day as the ground was testing underfoot and once he reached the front he was the only horse seeing it out well that day in a decent time for the conditions in which he helped to force the issue. The stiffer track should help him today as he looked like he would get further based on that effort. Clearly he was much too good for class 4 handicapping company at Windsor and he wasn’t disgraced the time before when contesting good ground at Ascot and finishing 2L behind the useful Chill the Kite in a decent looking 3yo handicap, He looks still to have the measure of Ardmay on Newmarket running. 3 – Mabaany Only having his 3rd run of the season this gelding built on the disappointment of his poor run at Haydock on firm ground with a decent 2nd to trail blaze in a similar type of handicap to which he contests today, this day he was just outstayed over a mile at Thirsk and the stiffer course of pontefracht has to be a concern given that he looked to have failed to see the trip out, however Trail Blaze is thought to want further so given the pace of that race he may have just found a more resolute galloper to pass and is well worth another crack at this trip in this sphere of class, especially with Paul Hannagan returning to the saddle for the ride for his employers. 4 – Rio Grande Beaten by his elders latest when finding just Jo’burg just too strong at the business end of his race at Redcar, and a return to his age group today should be to his liking today. Previously to the last run he was well beaten on the all-weather when meeting his elders for the first time and that was off the back of a wide margin win in an uncompetitive 3 runner affair on his first attempt over a mile and while it’s not certain he doesn’t stay the trip as he was a decent winner that day his improvement since being stepped up to a mile hasn’t be anything other than ordinary and this is a tougher class of race today. 5 – Satanic beat Was well beaten over course and distance last time when finishing behind Astair and maybe is in the grip of the handicapper as he was a previous course and distance winner when winning earlier in the season in a class 4 event and maybe the factor of stronger rivals due to his increased mark was a defining factor in the race. Form ties in with Ardmay on Ayr form in what was a class 2 handicap and also on the latest run at Pontefracht in which both flopped over C&D. The form when beating Dubai Dynamo in soft conditions at Ripon reads very well as it was a field full of proven handicappers and with only 5lbs rise in the weights he has to rate as going off the boil with a return to his own age group meaning he has struggled and the suggestion maybe is that a return to soft ground will improve him further. 6 – Dubawi Island Has improved since switching to artificial surface and breaking his maiden tag at the 4th time of asking, however his handicapping debut suggested that the handicapper has already got his measure with a mark of 85 allotted to him, the return to turf needs to bring improvement for him to be involved in the finish. Martin Dwyer is back in the saddle and that can only be a bonus but others look to have more on offer on the book even though he is entitled to improve. 7 – Ardmay Won at Ayr beating Satanic beat in a class 2 event that was more class 2 in name rather than quality and the time before that he proved to be much too good for class 4 company when winning at Haydock and he does seem to enjoy performing at these flat galloping type of tracks and he did start to struggle after that when tried over stiffer tracks and while it could have been the type of tracks it could be more down to his in ability to handle ground that has firm in the description. The Newmarket run behind Fire Ship he wasn’t disgraced in a decent class 2 and maybe just found a couple better handicapped in the conditions and he failed to see the trip out as well as those rivals, the ground shouldn’t be as quick as at Pontefracht last time and a better effort is expected under Amy Ryan today. 8 – Lady Macduff Returned to some form last time out over 9F at Epsom after back to back poor performances at Ascot and York in some decent races and she is a but hit and miss on the overall profile and she was a decent winner of a fillies handicap at Haydock earlier in the season, the return of Joe Fanning to the saddle draws some hope for a big show by her and the ground isn’t likely to be on the fast side today which also seems to help her, she is often raced with the pace and this track can play strength to those racing up with the pace. 9 – boots and spurs Won nicely in the mud at Carlisle and enjoys a stiff mile under testing conditions so he has one part in this today that will suit, whether or not if he is good enough is to be seen as his best form has come at a much lower level then this handicap today. Raised 6lbs for that win last time I see him finding easier tasks then this to continue his progression with better ground not likely to suit as much as the heavy going did last time out. 10 – Hi There Impressive winner last time out at Beverley in which they went a good clip and he stayed on really well to land the 7.5F race there and there could be more to come now he is back upped to class 3 level having previously ran well at Newmarket in this sphere of class. The trip isn’t a problem for him having looked like the extra half furlong would suit while the drying ground is in his favour too and he should be thereabouts if he was to give his running. Tissue – Mabaany 3-1, Astair 7-2, Hi There 9-2, Rio Grande 8/1, Lady Macduff 9/1, Fire Ship 10/1, Dubawi sound, Boots and spurs 12/1, Satanic Beat 16/1, Ardmay 16/1 Verdict – Mabaany looks like he has a good chance here under Paul Hanagan and William Hagga Gelding and benefit from an easy season to date to run a big race, however at the prices I am prepared to give ASTAIR a chance at the early price of 10-1 with VC bet as he has a better chance than his odds suggest back on turf over a mile at this level. Hi There is respected with the ground drying out. Advised bet – ASTAIR 1pt e/w @ 10-1 |
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Was looking forward to reading your Ces preview?
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3.15 Nottingham 10F Handicap Soft ground Class 3
1. Stand to Reason – Best form this season has come under a soft surface and the return to those conditions today should help his chances under top weights and his effort at the Chester cup meeting still reads out his best chance today and with the stamina test at Nottingham today likely to reflect that kind of test today even though slightly stiffer he should give his running and I believe under these conditions he can run to a 100 mark which is 6lbs higher than his current mark off 94 which he went well of in the John Smith Cup at York, the more recent effort at York over 12F can be forgiven as that with the Ascot run suggested he doesn’t stay the trip. 2. Sirvino – Ran a massive race at York Dante meeting behind Gatewood of John Gosdon who has franked the form since in rapid improving form and that effort sticks out on the formbook for this even though the conditions underfoot are likely to put more emphasis on stamina even though the 0.5F trip less than that day will counter that so you would imagine a similar test of stamina should be had today. The more recent runs he has shown up well on soft ground including on good to soft ground at Ascot when he tried to give lumps of weight away and wasn’t disgraced in a small runner affair at Pontefracht but they are a bit below the York run and maybe a return to an easier speedier track such as Nottingham can see him perform back to that Dante meeting run which I have him as running to a mark of 101 if reproducing that level of form, leaving him 9lbs well in at the weights before you even take into consideration the claimers claim, but the more recent form has him only 2lbs in hand, so it has to be considered into the price for this. 3. Las verglas Star – Comes here in form having beaten Sirvino latest at Pontefracht and based on the Ascot form from earlier on in the season he was entitled to confirm that form as it stands out as strong form as well. The sharper performance at Goodwood he stayed on well and the Pontefracht win was deserved on his efforts at those two venues. Amy Ryan takes the ride today and based on the Pontefracht performance I see him running to a mark of 93 based on that and that is only 2lbs higher than his mark so he could struggle to confirm the form for a 3rd time with Sirvino who has a stronger piece of form on the book this season to call upon and he also has ground to make up on stand to reason on Chester form back in June. 4. Rock a Doodle Doo – Would have a chance if reproducing his all-weather run at Kempton that was over 12F over this short trip on turf and that can’t be certain to happen. He maybe is best judged on his Windsor effort over 11.5F in which he was well beaten and I have him running 8lbs below his mark today based on that effort. The conditions are against what he has performed the best under today and a return to that surface is best waited with. 5. First Mohican – Returned to the track in sparkling fashion at Redcar in which he won going away after maybe being a little rusty from lack of racing and under similar conditions he should go well again with the improvement still open, but there is the bounce factor to consider as he is turned out quickly here today but he is 7lbs in front of the handicapper on racing post rating which looks about right on the effort he put up(4th went close on Monday). 6. Mawaakef – Lost his way since being the only one to challenge Highland Knight at the Derby meeting and now stepped back up in to territory he failed to beat many rivals home on his past tries over this far and could be out to be dropped a few more lbs by the handicapper. The Epsom form does standout as his best piece of form but all his form falls short of this test of stamina this season and maybe the Sailsbury form is best to judge his chances on in terms of toughest tests of stamina he has had on his more recent form and he falls over 12lbs short of his mark by my reckoning, so be a surprise if he is able to outstay these today. 7. Sandusky - The runs at the July Course and York throughout the summer has to give some concerns towards the chances of Mahmood Al Zarooni runner here today as they have some liking to today’s race, however the tougher conditions underfoot may well bring him back to his best as the Goodwood 11F effort under soft ground was a solid piece of handicapping and that coupled in with the return to form on the all-weather last time out would give him hope as I have him down as running to 91 based on that Goodwood effort which would have him amongst the principals in this off a mark of 88. He should be sticking on towards the business end. 8. Art Scholar – Won an easier task over course and distance latest and has turned out to be a solid handicapper this season and even though he doesn’t have the services of Tom Quelly for this handicap today who gets on well with him he still has a chance based on that effort and a reproduction of that effort would see him running to around to a mark in the early 90’s which will be needed to get placed in this event today and while he is in form he could well do that, even though really soft ground could stretch his stamina as proved when failing to stay over 14.5F of Doncaster earlier in the season. 9. Bollin Greta – been campaigned over further this season and hasn’t run over a trip as sharp as this since 2008. Could be interesting if brought out again over further before the season is out but this looks a tough ask being dropped back in trip for such a tough race. 10. Kalk Bay – Tailed off latest at Pontefracht under not to dissimilar conditions to which he will be encountering today and maybe the stiff track with the ground just undone him that day and maybe will be better returning to a less stiff track that encounters today as the 2nd to Dandana has him still well handicapped and that effort was over ½ Furlong further in a competitive handicap and if the ground was to dry out he would look well handicapped with around 5-6lbs in hand, he has got winning form on soft ground but the Pontefracht performance was maybe too bad to be true and reservations have to be made. 11. Brunston – Showed little at Epsom after a spell over the jumps and should be avoided until showing more as his jumps form showed little signs of life in him. 12. Demolition – Does handle some give in the ground and is ideally suited to 10F as a trip and ran well in defeat to universal latest at Ripon as that unexposed rival made light work of his lenient handicap mark. Looks just a shade in the grip of the handicapper on that level and others are maybe better handicapped for this, but any encouragement from this run should be noted for further betting proposition. 13. Hung Parliament – Has struggled over similar tests of stamina as today and best form was on the all-weather over a mile, this could well be a prep for a winter campaign back on that surface as his turf form has been nothing but a struggle since 2yo days. 14. Ellemujie – Likely non-runner if his recent performances are anything to base his chances on as 4 runs at Kempton and two top of the ground efforts on turf make up his last six runs and while he is well handicapped on the 10F effort he put up last December the ground this year has really gone against him and looks all set to make hay on the all-weather throughout the winter month as a well handicapped 7yo. 15. Swnymor – Has been contesting stiffer tests of stamina then he is likely to be contesting today but the recent effort at Chester proved that the drop back in trip was to his liking as he finished a short head 2nd in a tight finish and just failed that day and based on that performance I make him just about handicapped right and should give his running again, but looks to need improvement against those that maybe are just better handicapped, but no reason why he can’t improve being unexposed over the trip. 16. Barren brook – Paul Mulrennen maybe has made the right choice of spitting Mick Easterby pair as Barren Brook can be deemed as well handicapped based on his run at Ripon behind Voodoo Prince and has a considerable swing in the weights with First Mohician after a poor effort against that rival at Redcar and while it may well be hard to see how he can reverse that most recent performance the change in jockey suggest they hope for a better showing today. The ground is plenty soft enough and the Ripon 2nd he was pushed along early before rattling home from the rear, but he seemed to handle the going and has to be considered as that performance puts him 5lbs in hand from this mark. Verdict – Looks Competitive on paper and a lot will depend on First Mohican who was so impressive last time out but this may come too soon after a long absence and therefore plenty of value could be had. Both the Mick Easterby pair makes appeal at big prices but both may want better ground and Barren Brook is most probably the best bet for that stable to run a big race. The top of the weights both Stand to reason and Sirvino have chances while Sandusky & Art Scholar both have claims as well. A chance is taken with SIRVINO to show the performance he showed at the Dante meeting back in May with the ground not being an issue based on other pieces of form. Advised bet – Sirvino 2pts e/w @ 12-1 Trusty was away for the weekend. sorry |
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8.00 Kempton Division 1 12F Handicap Standard class 4
1. Aazif has improved his form steadily on turf and makes the switch to the all-weather tonight to which his connections will hope that he improves on as he has to concede weight all-round. However his best two pieces of form was over 12F and even though he ran with credit over 14F on firm going last time out at Haydock, the reverting to 12F is sure to help his claims and by my calculations he has a couple of lbs in hand on his current mark if able to carry his turf form on to the artificial surface. 2. Arch Villain is one of the more exposed 3yo in this handicap and may struggle against the less exposed types in the race and takes a drop back in trip to 12F here as he has been running over further more recently, his form seemed to have improved for further trip but he ran creditable efforts over 12F at the July course and also over C&D but he needs to improve on those efforts to win of this mark and others look better handicapped but he does have plenty in his favour as he is proven on conditions. 3. Star for Life steps into handicap company for the first time after contesting 4 maidens with limited success and his best effort came on the soft ground of Chester round course over 10.5F and he looked like having a race in him, however the step up to 12F on his last two runs in maiden company have been poor efforts with the Haydock run on quick ground a big disappointment at a favoured price and then on the all-weather at Wolverhampton over 12F next time out. His handicap mark of 80 looks much too higher on those 12F based efforts and while the conditions at Chester put more emphasis on stamina then the shorter 10.5F trip he contested he does look like an easier test of stamina may well be more to his liking. 4. Infinite Hope Has had one run over 12F when following up his maiden win at Folkestone with a step up in trip into handicap company at the same venue next time out and the more stiffer 12F he contest today could well improve him as the handicapper hasn’t given him much to work with based on that handicapping debut. The breeding suggest that a drop back in trip would be a better bet than a increase on the stamina key to which he contests today and his debut at Goodwood over 9F seems to play to that theory and he needs to find improvement to have a say in this event I feel. 5. Cape Savannah has had more runs than most of the field but is another like arch villain who is at least proven on the surface and with that has claims. He looks better handicapped then that rival based on his recent efforts at Sailsbury and over 13.5F of Wolverhampton and both of those efforts reflect what is needed in this handicap today. The runs at the July course and more recently at haydock over 14F in the mud can be ignored as he didn’t see the trip out on both occasions and looks tailored made for this 12F test as he ran such a big race when 4th to Willie Wag tail in a similar type of race back in June and with a return to the scene of that effort he could well be nicely handicapped for this based on that performance. 6. Mawhub finished last on handicap debut over 10F on the all-weather and that was his first effort on the artificial surface after making a favourable impression on turf at Newmarket on both occasions in his maidens. He never figured at Lingfield always being in the rear of a moderate gallop. Strong connections suggest they do feel the surface will suit and the extra trip and change of track could well help his chances, but the lingfield run was too bad to be too optimistic and he may well be best watched. 7. Shetheman is potentially very well treated for this handicap based on her effort last time out over course and distance when tackling this trip for the first time, having previously ran well over 8.5F at Wolverhampton and 10F of Brighton and Newbury more recently. The Kempton performance last time is the race to best judge him on as the conditions of this race will be very similar to those and she could well improve over the trip as it is only her second run and she looks the one they have to beat here tonight. 8. Dedication has only had a handful of runs so far and she improved when returning this season over these middle distances and she needs to find more then she showed on handicap debut over course and distance latest. She is open to improvement but she didn’t seem to last the 12F out and quite possibly is better over the 11F she won her maiden at this venue. She has strong connections and there is hope she will improve on that original 12F effort as she is so lightly raced but she has it all to prove. 9. Dandy was given a mark of 85 for his maiden win and has struggled to run with any credit since stepping into Handicap Company and the last effort at Goodwood he failed to feature in the finish having shown up quite well for the majority of the trip. Hope is drawn from the change in surface and the extra trip but not much hope is drawn from that on breeding. 10. Cellist has the services of Fallon for this tonight and has some decent efforts on the all-weather to draw some hope from. Finished behind Arch Villain over 2M here but this is a lot sharper than that day and he is also better off at the weights for this as well. His 12F form is ok considering the Ripon performance would have him as handicapped around the right mark, but he was massively impressive when romping home in his maiden over 12F at Wolverhampton and the reverting to this surface is sure to help him based on that and he should be on the premises in this company I feel. 11. Kelpie Blitz is a regular at Brighton and maybe takes this as a target with the weather hitting that track. Form on the all-weather, but all looks moderate and the first attempt at a trip this far isn’t certain to suit as he went from travelling well on this surface to finding very little when contesting an 11F event here back in May. Needs to prove stamina but is at least in form. My Tissue – Shestheman 4-1, Cape Savannah 5-1, Aazif 13-2, Cellist 7-1, Arch Villian 10-1 12-1 BAR Verdict – Shestheman looks the one they have to beat in this handicap having performed so well last time out over course and distance and should be placed in this event as there is sure to be more to come, however CAPE SAVANNAH looks a shade overpriced at a best priced 10-1 for this having proven to hold form in a similar type of event and while he may not have performed quite as well since, he has proven to hold that sort of performances on a couple of other occasions under not dissimilar types on races stamina wise. Aazif and Cellist are the next pair on the shortlist and should figure. Advised bet – Cape Savannah 1pt e/w @ 10-1 (365) |
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3.20 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Class 2 3M Good to soft
Start of the jump season for myself as we set upon the first day of the new season at national Hunt HQ Cheltenham and this Pertemps network handicap hurdle looks a competitive affair with the usual 20 runner field and some of these will make it through the season to the show piece in March. A handful of these will be suited to the 3M that take some getting on this type of ground and you never know one could well turn out to be the winner come March as the ground may well reflect the spring ground they will be contesting come March. The best place to start is with the Irish raider of Tom Taffe that lines upon a hat-rick bid having one back to back staying handicap hurdles in his native Ireland and the most recent a ultra-competitive affair at Gowran Park in which he stayed on strongly to win maybe a shade cosy. The handicapper hasn’t missed this fact and has risen him 10lbs in the weights for that win, the fact this is tougher means he doesn’t get over burden with too much weight to carry on his attempt over a stiffer test of stamina, there is every reason why he should give his running in this and should be thereabouts and the 4-1 on offer reflects that. Action Master is another from Ireland that has claims in this handicap and ran a ok prep for this last time out on the flat and the return to jumping he should be cherry ripe for this test of stamina, the Galway effort took some getting and that effort stacks up well and any give in the ground will really help his chances in this and at 20-1 there is some each-way value on offer to his chances as well. Sir Kezbaah had problems last season and never really ran his race at Huntingdon, Cheltenham and Newbury last season and maybe struggled with the handicapper, however his class 2 effort from April 2011 still stacks up well under Good ground and a return too that effort he should have a say even though this is most probably a little bit more competitive in terms of numbers. Cross Kennon ran well in Grade 2 at Haydock earlier in the year but should have performed much better when contesting the Swinton hurdle and is likely to find it tough again to concede weight all-round again here today. American Spin beat Howizee in a close finish and the weights favour Howizee this time around even though it’s only 1lb difference and this more testing track I feel will help American Spin confirm form with Howizee. Viking Blond could be a well handicapped horse to keep on the right side of this season, while Raslan & Sivola De Sivola both have claims in this as well, the latter put up an impressive performance last season in one of these when winning at Newbury in decent fashion and based on that effort looks set to run a big race here, The form also ties in with Fox Appeal in the Albert & Bartlett novice hurdle in which his effort was very disappointing and maybe he should have contested the pertemps handicap hurdle with hindsight but maybe he will make amends this time around and he looks to hold the best chance of the UK challenge in this. Tissue – Heany 7-2, Action Master 8-1, Sivola De Sivola 9-1, American Spin 10-1, Viking Blond 12-1 14-1BAR Advised Selection – Action Master 1pt e/w @ 20-1 |
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W/D Sir WC
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WD Well Chief -
Quality, pleased for you to nail a proper one [20/1] |
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WD WC
 Wish i'd seen it earlier Look forward to your write ups now the proper stuff has arrived |
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2.30 Cheltenham VCBET handicap Chase 20F G/S 20 Runners
A very open competitive handicap on the card and one that will throw up a few winners through out the season and some of these will be contesting the plate and William Hill Handicaps come March so it should be informative for the festival as well as being a potential for a priced winner. That’ll doboy could well give Paul Nichols a winning Saturday to keep his dominance of the trainer championship up and this 2nd season chaser progressed nicely in novice handicaps last season and would have won a big handicap towards the end of the season if his jumping held out and he is certainly well handicapped on the fact he would have been penalized a lot more if managing to stand up at Kempton and here as well on his last two starts, however he has a low weight for this and the trainer is sure to have him ready to go first time up in the one man colours and no surprise to see him around 5-1 for this as he is effective under these conditions and trip and if he stands up he will be there at the finish. The Ultra Consistent Bobowen is sure to go well as he comes here in the form of his life and has the services of Barry Gerghaty for the doctor and despite the 5lbs rise in the weights for the close 2nd at market Rasen in a recent listed handicap in which he had Idarah and Rebel Du Marquis even further back in the field and while he should confirm the form the Paul Nichols Rebel Du Marquis who was favourite for that event is sure to come on again for that outing and on the Stratford run over 21.5F he has the ability to perform off a mark as high as this and could go well for the 7lbs claimer Harry Derham, Kauto Relko was in the process of running a big race when Paddy Brennan lost his irons and then parted company at the last, he would have been close to Bobowen that day and can be regarded as one that goes without any penalty and could go close. Triangular failed to complete in the Topham chase at the Grand National Meeting and maybe can be given another chance based on the Newbury performance the time before in which he skipped clear in very fetching fashion to score by a comfortable 4.5L from Dom D’Orgeveal and has one of these handicaps in him this season based on that evidence and even though he was raised 12lbs for that success he should give a solid account of himself in this if taking to the track. Divers is one that likes this track and will run his usual race around here, the services of choc Thornton is eye catching as he is one of the best around this track and Ferdy Murphy knows what it takes to win these types of handicaps at Cheltenham. Mad Moose won nicely here in April but meets those that finished in front of him at the festival wrong at the weights and would be a surprise if he will find enough to reverse the form with those that finished in front of him. The Irish Challenge looks like it could come from Campbonnis at a big price and Jamesie Hall based on the Limerick in the Galway Plate Trail handicap back in the summer and Jamesie hall came out on top that day, however the weights favour Campbonnais today, however Paul Carberry takes the ride on Jamesie Hall who confirmed form over 3M in the mud more recently when finishing a close up 4th and the form of that race has been well held up with the performances of those placed in the Munster National recently and Jamesie Hall should go well under this test of stamina with the perfect styled jockey for his running style on board and could go very close in this ultra-competitive affair. Tissue – That’lldo boy 5-1, Triangular 7-1, Jamesie Hall 15-2, Bobowen, Rebel Du Mariqus 10/1, Kelto Relko 12/1, Divers 14/1, Mad Moose, Easter Meteor 16/1 Idarah 20/1 22/1BAR Advised Bet – Jamsie Hall 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (VC) |
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1.45 Ascot Qipco champions long distance cup Group 3 2M Heavy
With Ground very different too this race last year in which Fame & glory beat those that finished in front at this years Royal Ascot meeting it may well be wise to not draw too much conclusion to that piece of course form and this years Ascot Gold cup that would be a stronger test of stamina (needed today) due to the increased trip isn’t also a comparable race as the pace was sluggish throughout that contest. The Staying division is crying out for a top notch stayer as those that have won the group races this season have managed to beat each other throughout the campaign and maybe the best clue for this race may well lie with those that haven’t been contesting the group races and Il De Re of Donald McCain can build on the success he has made for himself on the flat but running a big race in this staying event. The conditions underfoot are likely to be ideal for him and unlike rite of Passage who is another to consider he has at least got the recent form to be of an interest without knowing to much what has gone on behind the scenes with Dermott Welds Ascot Gold cup winner from 2011 (510 Absence to overcome). Il De Re won the chester cup from a tape start and then did what his stablemate and champion hurdle runner-up overturn could not do and that was lead a field of handicappers home in front in the Northunberland plate, now the magnitude of that form can be questioned by those who didn’t get beaten far being nothing more than run of the mil handicappers but this isn’t a race full of superstar stayers and it won’t take much improvement in these conditions for il De Re to come out on top in. Rite to Passage loves these condition’s when beating a competitive field of handicappers in Ireland November handicap prior to winning the Ascot Gold Cup, he really liked the ground that day and if fit and well could well be the one too beat in these conditions. Colour Vision and Saddlers Rock had hard races in France at the Arc Meeting in what was heavy ground that day and ran below their bests, they proved that the ground isn’t ideal for them that day at the top level, while Opinion Poll would take all the beating if the ground wasn’t so desperate underfoot. Asker Tau is respected on his effort in the coral marathon earlier on in the season but is another that prefers better ground and Electrolyser seems to be best caught when given 14F races. Aiken beat Fame & glory recently but needs to prove he stays the trip, he is another who will like the ground. Tissue – Il de Re 4-1, Aiken 5-1, Opinion Poll 5-1, Rite of Passage 6-1, Colour Vision, fame & Glory 8-1, 9-1BAR Advised Bet – Il De re2pt e/w @ 7-1 (billys) |
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4.50 Pontefracht 10F Soft Class 4 Handicap
A tough test of stamina is on the cards in this middle distance race as the conditions are tough underfoot and pontefracht is a course where you need to see out every inch as you never really get too many wide distance winners at this track. The horse that catches my eye for a bet today is MAYBEAGRAY at the foot of the weights which will be a added bonus in these conditions. Well drawn on the inside she should get a good posiiton to make a claim in this providing she doesnt meet too much trouble from her midfield position. She stays further then the 10F she contests today having won a class 5 handicap from the foot of the weights back in July at this very track. The fact that David Allan isnt on board shouldnt be taken as Tim Easterby charge has little hope in this handicap as I am unsure if he can do the feather weight needed. The booking of young James Sullivan is a decent one as he has come on well this season and is more then capable of winning handicaps now his allowance has gone. This 3yo is a proven stayer in these conditions and enjoys the track, she has plenty in her favour where others dont and looks a tad overpriced at 22-1 for this. others that made my shortlist was Carragold and Kathlen Francs who finished behind the progressive First Mohician last time and that form looks solid, they should run their races as well, while Tartan Gigha is another who should get the trip. Advised bet - MAYBEAGREY 1pt e/w @ 22-1 (Billys) |
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Unlucky WC, ran into one!
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Didnt it just Stewart rise. That winner certainly enjoyed testing condiitons, could well be a class 2 handicap winner in waiting if paired on the right ground, won round ponte in tough going barely had to be move did Graham Lee, my selection finished a clear 2nd, but the winner was impressive.
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4.10 Exeter Haldon Handicap chase class 4 19.5F GS
This small field handicap doesnt look to tough event as many have question marks over them as they arent the classiest bunch of chasers you are likely to see and I am drawing hope that Black Phantom can produce a better round of jumping then when last seen over fences when with Andy Turnell. Now with a small yard in which the hope he has been schooled intensley to iron out the problems he has had with his jumping, he looks to have been found a perfect little handicap to get his head back in front as he has a decent record fresh in the past and has the continued services of Nick Schofield for his new trainer. The ground on his last run at Ffos lass may have been too testing underfoot but he does handle some give in the ground as proven when winning at Chepstow back in 2010. A winner at the track when beating the likes of Roalco De Farges and Pepporoni Pete by 20L over 19F and hurdles proves he has ability and providing he jumps better he should be competitive off a mark of 105. At 13-2 he looks a shade overpriced and believe he still retains the ability to take a class 4 handicap. Advised bet - Black Phantom 1pt e/w @ 13-2 (PP) |
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GL...according to the post he has only had the horse 6 days, so doubt he will have done much in that time.
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Your analysis is getting less convoluted and your results are getting better
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15.15 Doncaster Racingpost Betting shop Manager of the year Handicap 6F Soft
After going through this race I am prepared to give Charlie Hills talented sprinter Shropshire another go over this 6F test in a big field as he looks like he is more then capable to win another sprint handicap this season having managed only one win on turf this season when winning at Ascot in a 9 runner affair from the useful bench mark Macs Power and that day the ground was on the soft side if not quite as testing as it is likely to be today. However I am not unsure that better ground is need for him despite his decent 2L defeat in the stewards cup in which he was far from digraced in a bunch finish behind Hawkeyethenoo. The Ayr Gold Cup run i feel was long enough ago for him too have recovered from those serve conditons underfoot in which the winner was a horse that had done all its winning in keenly contested 7F event which suggested stamina was well needed that day. There will be some need to be able to see out the trip here today but with a sunny day forecasted I'd be surprised if the ground will be as soft as it was that day. Looking through his form he was impressive when winning on good to soft ground on his race course debut, he also was 3rd to Frankel and Excelebration in the Greenham stakes at the start of 2011, however you cant really judge him by that piece of form. He most probably is best judged on his form this season under conditions with soft in the title so the Newmarket guineas meeting sprint handicap sticks out as a strong piece of form as he finished 2nd to the very talented champion sprinter Maarek, he may well struggle to confirm form with Colnel mak based on the weights from that day and that rival is a CD winner too boot, however Shropshire has progressed this season and can confirm the running here despite the weight swing in the favor of the Baron runner. Matthew Lawson gets on well with this horse and takes him below the 9 stone mark for weight carried which has been a key to this handicap in its short history. Khubala & Prodgaillity both have solid claims and should go well but 5-1 & 7-2 in a handicap such as this doesnt look a viable bet, while Farlow has solid course form and is a threat and trade secret could well perform much better then he has done recently, but he isnt one too have to much faith in with back problems in his recent history. Bet - Shropshire 1pt e/w @ 20-1 (PP) |
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13.30 Newcastle Class 2 Handicap Chase 3M GS
Fresh new ground at Newcastle for this chase and it is unlikely to be too soft underfoot. A nice round 8 go to post in which 3 are out of the handicap with the addition of Benny Be Good in the field and while there is everychance that Benny Be good has been found a nice easy task to get his head in front, I prefer to chance my arm further down the weights with a eye catching low weighted runner in this event. With some doubts over a few of these (poker de sivola for one) I will take the 16-1 on offer on course specialist Lockstown who comes back this season of the back of a trio of poor runs to finish the season off last term. However he is a different proposition around here and with the ground likely to not be as tough underfoot as those trio of runs I can see there reason to believe he can turn things around at gosforth park. The last of his 3 wins at this track was over course and distance on good ground off a mark of 107, however he is higher in the handicap but only has 10 stones to carry due to those he race against. The hope is that Wilson Renwick has been doing the hours in the steam room to get his racing weight down too his lowest racing weight in the last 12 months. 3 of his 4 chase wins has come at this track and at the odds he is worth ago as he looks the best of the 3 out of the weights around here. Poker De Sivola there is the absence and the trip that are question marks, while Wymott is in a similiar boat to the selection as he finished the season in poor form yet is challanging favoutisim. Lackamon is a big danger and benny be good is solid but overall I am prepare to take the 16-1 on offer for Lockstown to continue his decent course form. Bet - Lockstown 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (365) |
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2.25 Aintree Sports Veteran Mobile Handicap Class 2 25F Good
4 make the shortlist in this handicap. Mumbles Head (13/2 @ PP) - Backed this last season in a vets race at Doncaster and got no sort of run for my money, however since that day he has bounced back to some form with a fruitful summer under his belt and his runs at both Perth and Market Rasen were fetching efforts and whilst the ground was on the soft side on those occassions, he has also recorded a win on good ground when winning at Perth as well throughout the summer so the ground shouldnt end his chances and his absence is lesser then many of these as his last run was back in July. The main concern has to be the absence of Tom O'Brien in the saddle as the pairing had struck up a decent partnership this summer, even though Jamie Moore is more then able. Garleton (7/1 @ PP) - Last seen back in May when hacking up off a mark of 140 that day in which he never saw another rival and that was off the back of a fair effort in the Scottish National behind Ayr Specialist Merigo. The Aintree (may 11) and Wetherby runs showed that todays test is very much to his liking and he should have everything in place for big run providing that he is fit to do himself justice at the first time of asking, but he has gone well after a break before so should be very hopeful that a performance can be had today and the ground is ideal for him unlike maybe with Mumble Head who is at his best with some juice in the ground. Nikola (5/1 @ 365) - Loves it here and won this 12 months ago and also finished in front of Mumbles head in that Doncaster race eluded to under that rival so there is everychance that he will confirm running as he goes well fresh as proving 12 months ago. Lowed 8lbs after his effort in the Topham chase over the big fences he comes into this very much well handicapped as he is 6lbs lower then the mark he scored off last term. That day he carried 10stone 11lbs so the fact he has to carry 10 stone this time around just proves that it is a stronger race this time around, but he counters that with the feather weight and should make his presence at least noted in this handicap and the books havent taken too much of a chance with him here at best price 5-1 Fabalu (5/1 @ PP) - Can be a bit hit and miss but did account for Nikola at Ascot when being beaten by Kingston Combe and then at least finished when tackling the topham chase here over the bigger fences. Jason Maguire gets on well with him and with the ground likely to be good racing ground there is every chance that he will be on top of his form here today as his only blemish apart from the Topham chase since stepping into handicap company has come when tackling soft racing ground. The Ascot run was probably his best effort to date and he is only 4lbs higher then that mark so he should still be within the sphere too land a handicap and he should go close. Verdict - looking at the prices and how I would judge their pieces of form in comparison to their chances under these conditions I would say that GARLETON is the choice in preference to Mumbles Head who if there was more cut in the ground would have been the value in the race at 13-2, but with a dry day forecasted and the likely hood of him being fit enough to do himself justice at the first time of asking I will side with the Maurice Barnes runner. Advised bet - Garelton 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (PP) |
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3.30 Aintree Old Roan chase Grade 2 Limited Handicap
5 make the shortlist in this decent looking grade 2 handicap. For Non Stop (11/2 @ Lads) - 2nd season chaser that most probably doesnt get the hype he actually deserves due to the connections in comparison to the novices last season that was more hyped, yet he is a decent horse in his own right and should enjoy this 20 furlong test on good ground and the stronger the gallop the more he will come into his own having ran with credit behind the Gold cup favourite Sir Des Champs at the festival last season as he finished best of the rest behind that potential superstar and cheltenham specialist Champion Court. Flat track should suit even though at newbury it did take him a bit longer to put the race to bed then expected but he does have a nice racing weight for Noel Fehilly to run him off. Pacha Du Polder (9/2 @ PP) - Trainer Paul Nichols has only won this race once in the past 10 runnings and has had some notable failures in the race, however his 2nd season novice looks to build on the way he finished his novice campagin off with a win in a notable race such as this having dodged the main novice races after flopping and he needs to improve on the ayr novice performance in which he was so impressive. That was a lot easier then the time before when he was no match for for Non Stop and the hope will be that he has improved as many of the trainers do for a summer since their novice days. the fact he only recieves 1lb makes it tougher for him on terms with For Non Stop but better is expected this season and you cant totally discount there being improvement. Gauvain (7/1 @ LAds) - Often best caught in the early part of the season he was mightly impressive when winning the peterbrough chase from Somersby by 4L last season and that piece of form has him as a potential bet for this task first time up as he is very much a autumn horse on the best of his form. The weight concession makes his task much harder but he is very talented, however it is interesting to see Noel Fehilly place his faith in the more progressive profiled horse even though Jason Maguire isnt a bad replacement in the saddle. Now with Philip Hobbs after leaving Nick Williams yard. Wishfull Thinking (7/1 @ General) - On His day he is very good and ran a massive race here back at the grand national meeting as finans Rainbow really proved himself to be top class that day so to run a runner-up to that horse isnt bad form even though he was beaten 7L at the finish he travelled with a liking for 20F around this track that speed and stamina is needed and there can be faith drawn from that run to hope that he is with in a chance he retains his ability as he never really has gone on from his novice days and can be quite headstrong so it be interesting to see what Wishfall thinking turns up today. Noble Prince (11/2 @ Billys) - Has a chance given that he was a impressive winner at the festival back in 2011 when romping up the hill to beat Wishfull thinking in what many at the time throught was the pick of the novice form from that year and he started to show some pieces of form earlier in the year in his native ireland, However his performance in the Ryanair left much to think about and while he should make this shortlist in a grade 2 handicap carrying only 11 stong 4lbs in comparison to Wishfull thinking you have to take it on trust that he is retainning his ability and maybe 11-2 could be deemed as the books not taking a chance on him in this. Verdict - Noble Prince could well be back to his best and if that is the case he really has to be the one to beat, but that is a big if and in my mind 11-2 is a bit short at the prices in comparison to the others. Gauvain may turn out to be the best of those prove, but you do have to think Noel Fehilly had the choice of rides in this and the 2nd season chaser for non stop looks to be a horse that can build on his cheltenham 3rd in the Jewson novice hurlde to Sir Des Champs and can confirm the form with Paul Nichols Pacha du Polder who has his stiffish task since failing to live with the upper echelon of Novices at Newbury. Advised bet - For Non Stop 2pts e/w @ 11-2 |
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3.45 Bathwick tyres Handicap Class 2 10F Heavy
This handicap is likely to be a slog in the mud and several still make appeal in what is a tricky handicap but one where I can see some value in the race. The market leaders have to prove themselves effective under the conditions and it may well pay to go for a bit of a longer shot. Blue Surf & Little Rocky make appeal of those towards the front of the market and the former could still be improving for amanda Perrert who often aims a improver at this type of race and is sure to go well. Tameen at a big price showed up better then his odds suggest in the John Smith cup which has had little form franked from but could run a big race. mark Johnston Licence to Til is a solid horse that enjoys to get his toe in based on this season form in which he has constantly been on the go and is having his 23rd run of the calander year and if it wasnt for the fact he is trained by Mark Johnston I would swerve him altogether. however Mark Johnston is a master at keeping them ticking over and this could well be one last hurrah for the season for this horse that ran a fair race over course and distance two runs back when finishing best of those that was ridden aggressivly as many came of the pace that day, he followed it up with a fair effort over 9F in the cambridgeshire and needs further then that trip to be at his best so a return to this trip and ground should suit, plus Joe Fanning is on board for quite a while and has recorded both his wins this season so I can see a big run on the cards at 16-1, which given his Chester form over 10.5F in which he had las verglas star beaten in behind reads well. Las verglas Star is another that could go better then his odds suggest and has been a model of consistency. The Lightly weighted Tigers tale is another that could go better then his 20-1 odds suggest as he was so impressive over a mile at this track on handicap debut and has shaped with promise on both his starts over 10F, he likes the ground and could go well but for the selection I will give Licence to til ago at a nice 16-1 on offer with a few bookmakers. Advised bet - Licence to til 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (Lads) |
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great shout on for non stop chief. wins easy. cheers :)
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2.10 Leicester sis live handicap class 2 1M soft 7 runners
Shamaal nibras could well improve to take this well and there is quite a bit to like about the Hannon runners chances, however at 2-1 I am prepared to bet against him here in the mud with Alantic Sport for the inform Channon yard as even though he is yet to win over a mile, there has been a couple of runs this season to which he looks like he could well land a small field race on soft ground. The run at Royal Ascot behind eton forever I consider as proving he can go close in todays contest as the ground was testing on a track that takes some getting the trip on, also the field was much bigger then todays race and he stuck on well suggesting that todays mile trip is attainable. He is also fairly weighted for this with martin Harley in the saddle who has ridden him for his best runs this season, a winner in the mud at haydock earlier in the season against proven handicappers show that he should have another affair at this level against similiar opponents in him and at 7-1 he looks the best bet at the prices. Toto Skyllachy should go well but looks handicapped up to his best and weapon of choice is the other i considered. advised bet - Atlantic sport 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (spoils bog) |
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As good as you will find , well done
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