2.20 Catterick 7F Soft Handicap 9 Runners


1.    Dubai Hills – Has got only two qualifying runs this season to defy his chances and is a little hit and miss. His best piece of form has to be his effort over 7F on the Knavismere of York back in May under quick conditions and if the ground was to dry out he would be home and hosed against these of this mark today, however he is most probably best judged on his other qualifying run which came over the 7F of Redcar in the mud in a class 3 handicap in which I have him down as running to a mark of 92 that day. Today’s test of stamina is sharper then that day while the York effort under quick conditions would be less of a test of stamina, so this test is somewhere in between and he should be amongst the two efforts and he could well put up a effort around the 95 mark I feel.

Chief rating – 95 (+10)

2.    Roker Park – Has put up 4 decent efforts throughout the summer and is genuinely a mud lark as three of those efforts have come under heavy conditions so the more rain the better his chances will become today. The pick of his efforts was in the Bronze cup sprint at Ayr in which I have him as running to a mark of 89 in a big field handicap, while he also recorded a fine effort at Hamilton over six furlongs in the mud, the other effort was over 7F at Newcastle which he ran to 81 and maybe his stamina didn’t quite get him home over that stiff 7F, however this task today is likely to be plenty sharp enough for him over 7F and while he may stay the trip others under the conditions may just find it more to his liking. His best effort under sharper conditions is best judged on his effort at Ripon under Good to soft conditions in a sprint handicap, that day he ran to 78 mark, but this is most probably still a little sharper that that unless the ground rides more heavy then soft around this downhill 7F race.

Chief Rating – 78 (-5)

3.    Dr Red eye – Been very consistent this season as have quite a few of these and has put up 7 decent efforts so far this season which has seen him rise in the weights up to this level of handicaps. The stable are in good form as they get ready for the all weather season in which they do so well under that code. Dr Red Eye is sure to play his part over the winter months having performed well over a mile at Kempton this year and could be interesting when returned to that surface. Back in July he put up a sparkling performance in a class 4 Handicap over course and distance in which there was some cut in the ground and I rated that performance as being around the 76 mark, he has however got 3 better ratings then that this season all in the early 80’s and two of them have come on the downhill track of Epsom race course over 7F showing that he likes a downhill track which aren’t likely to stretch his stamina. Today’s conditions should be ok for him given his performances on a turning track as proved when recording his best effort of 83at Chester under Good to soft conditions in September, the concern is that he needs to find more improvement to be as well handicapped as some of these in this race I feel but should give his running.

Chief rating – 83 (0)

4.     Beckermet – The admirable Beckermet has no less than 9 decent efforts this season and has once again been a model of consistency for his trainer and he often runs his races on no matter what the conditions, however any races that are of a more extreme stamina test over 6 to 7 furlongs seem to see him at his best but often it is that he constantly runs to around the same mark and his average from the 9 runs is a mark of 83. Today’s test is sharper than 8 of those 9 efforts recorded this season and he does like a more galloping track to which he comes with a sustained effort and the one effort that was sharper that he ran a decent race in was the Ayr effort on Good to firm ground back at the end of May this year. The ground today will help him around this track and based on his Ripon and Thirsk efforts  which was under slight more testing conditions in terms of track then I have him running around the 82 mark in this even though they were over six furlongs those races he is as effective over 7 as 6.

Chief Rating – 82 (+1)

5.    Green Park – Has been constantly on the go this season just like Beckermet and has performed with much credit this season in many of his races and has 11 decent efforts throughout the calendar year which has suggested that connections must be more then pleased with his efforts. The average report on his ratings from these efforts is a rating of 78 as a average but his best efforts have come under extreme conditions such as soft and heavy ground which suggest that more rain today and the better his chances are.  The 7F effort at Musselbrugh under soft conditions was his only qualifying effort over 7F this season and he ran to a mark of 83 that day which I have as a season best, but even though the track is more for speedy types the ground at Musselbrugh can make it a tough test of stamina in conditions as soft as it was that day. He is better judged on his more speedy tests with cut in the ground which defies his chances as around a mark of 78 for this.

Chief Rating – 78 (-2)

6.    Orpsie Boy – Ran a season best at the Chester Cup meeting in soft conditions and was in good form that time of the year, he has had a more sparingly campaign then his stable mate this season, but has still recorded 5 decent efforts throughout the season. The all weather effort back in September suggested that a winter campaign looks very much on the cards as that were a show of some form, while he also has course form when running under good to firm conditions over course and distance back in June where he recorded a effort of 83 that day and when he is inform he often runs around the early 80 marks. The conditions underfoot shouldn’t pose to much of a problem for him and he should run a solid race if on a going day, I have him averaging around 81/82 for this, even though I do feel a slightly more testing task would result in him running around 4lbs better, but it’s unlikely to be the case around here today and he does go well here as proving on that 83 running.

Chief Rating – 82 (+3)

7.    Polish World – Hard to judge and does come alive when least expected it would seem, he has only obtained 3 real efforts so far this season and one of them I have him down as recording a 87 effort when at Newcastle under good to firm conditions underfoot and whilst it is apparent that he isn’t one to have your mortgage on, when he is in the mood he is a very decent horse. The other decent effort was when chasing home Dubai Hills at Redcar in the mud and that effort whilst as not as competitive in numbers or stiff in track was a effort of similar stamina test as it was under soft conditions. Today’s task whilst there is some hope that he has a chance based on those two efforts, his other effort at Thirsk over 7F most probably is a more defining race to judge his chances on and even though he ran with credit that day his mark I gave him was much lower than those two efforts of just 73. There could be several reason for the fall down in form from mid-summer to that September effort, but with his best over a stiffer test of stamina I would be more prepared to think he will run closer to that 73 then the 85 behind Dubai Hills even though that effort is the best to judge Dubai Hills on from this season.

Chief Rating – 73 (-4)

8.    Nameitwhatyoulike -  Potentially the improver in the race but one that never really has gone on from early season form that saw him win nicely when making all from Sovereign Debt who has ended the season in a group 1, it may be fair to say that Sovereign Debt wasn’t given a hard time when leaving it all too late that day to concede weight to the Easterby runner but you have to give credit to Nameitwhatyoulike for that effort which I gave him a mark of 83 for and a reproduction of that effort under soft conditions would have him going close but there has to be reservations made when he hasn’t reproduced anything close to that albeit over tasks that have been sharper then that day, the only other qualifying run came prior to that effort and it was a poor race but he shaped with promise at Redcar under quicker conditions which maybe aren’t to his liking as I have him running to a low mark of 65 in that run. While he is the one open to improvement I feel a tougher test of stamina would be more to his liking and its highly unlikely that he will get into the Lincoln handicap next season of his current mark, maybe the silver version would be more a race for him to be of interest, but for this I can’t him running any higher than 74 even though improving horse can make you calculate things all wrong.

Chief rating – 74 (-3)

9.    Layla’s Hero – A very poor season has seen him end up at the foot of the weights for this event and whilst he is frighteningly well handicapped you have to take a massive leap of faith to back him at the moment and the question has to be when is the right time to back him as the ability is there as he proved early in the season. Maybe at the start of next season might be when to back him because his sole two qualifying runs have come in the first part of the season, but whilst that might well be the case, a similar thing could be said for yesterday winner Justonefortheroad that bounced back to form even though he also was frighteningly handicapped and hadn’t run well since the first part of the season. The difference is that Justonefortheroad had been subjected to difficult tasks throughout the summer and had at least shown some for, Layla’s Hero has a sharper test today in terms of track, but his two qualifying runs were at Leicester and Doncaster in competitive affairs that tie in strongly with Victoria Cup winner Global Village. The run at Leicester I actual have him running to a mark of 91 under soft conditions which he will encounter today and that was improvement on the 89 he recorded at Doncaster, leaving the suggestion a tougher test of stamina is needed, I can’t really use any other rating for him then this season and the last handful of runs have been very poor to get any idea, his Doncaster run would be the better effort to judge his chances on today as the Leicester run was much more testing then this downhill track today, however overall his rating of 89 from that day should have cautious mark by as he needs to turn back the form, and to be a back able proposition I would want the horse to have about a stone in hand on those history run.

Chief Rating – 89~ (0)

Tissue – Dubai Hills 11/4, Orpsie Boy 11/2, Beckermet 15/2, Dr Red Eye, Layla’s Hero 9/1 12/1BAR

Verdict – Layla’s Hero could well hold the key to this handicap if re-finding the form of old and is dangerously handicapped for this so I could not put anyone off backing at a big double figure price. However I can’t be rushing to back Nameitwhatyoulike at 4-1 or DR red eye at 7-2 and Dubai Hills has been made a very tempting bet at 4-1 for this today as he is the class act in the race and one that could deny a on top of its game Layla’s Hero. Orpsie Boy double figure odds give him a great each-way play and his odds are preferred to stable mates Beckermet for this even though both I would consider as decent value per chance.

Advised bet – Dubai Hills 1pt e/w @ 4-1 (PP)

Good luck as usual chief , good stuff

Fancy HER myself, but where is the 11/2 available please?

3.20 Sedgefield 20F Handicap Chase GS Class 3

1.    Buck Mulligan – Class Average 2.40 – The class act in the handicap is looking like a well handicapped horse to strike with at some point in the near so future after some fair efforts in his last two runs at Market Rasen and Cheltenham in a higher quality of event. The run after a break back in May is his best effort so far this season as he finished a close up 5th in a competitive affair at Stratford in May and a reproduction of that would have him going well off a mark of 127 in this and he looks one of the favoured runners for this event.

2.    Carpincho – Class average 3.32 – 2nd season novice chaser who should appreciate the drop back in trip today having failed to stay 3M when last seen at Uttoxeter and his impressive effort at Fontwell over 22 furlongs is best race to judge his chances on as he ran out a convincing winner of a un-competitive affair that day in which even a bad last fence blunder couldn’t stop him from trotting up in decent fashion and whilst that was a straight forward task in terms of opponents you couldn’t be anything but impressed by his jumping and the speed he showed that day. There could be further improvement this season and with that in mind he should be competitive off a mark of 126.

3.    Corkage – Class Average 3.56 - Doncaster Specialist Corkage is one of the more proven exposed runners in the handicap and I’d be surprised if he can find more improvement at 9yo to overcome a mark of 133 and give weight away to some interesting looking handicappers and even though todays trip and ground should be ideal, others appeal more from a handicapping point of view.

4.    Global Flyer – Class Average 3.90 – Finally got his act together over fences last season and then was well beaten of a 2lb higher mark then he runs off today and maybe is likely to find things tougher this season, however the efforts he put up at Huntingdon and Wetherby would suggest he could well win of a mark of 125 this season so he isn’t a forlorn hope even though this looks to hold a few progressive types who could be better handicapped.

5.    No Planning – Class Average 3.72 – 1-1 over fences after winning a novice chase last time out and that effort was every bit as good as his novice hurdle efforts and given some of his jumps he put in there is room for improvement and the 123 mark should be an attainable mark for him to win off with the longer trip likely to help his rhythm of jumping. The Catterick run last winter behind Bourne over 19F proved that he has stamina in his locker as well as pace, he failed to last the trip that day but that may well be down to the fact he gave the winner a run for his money and the conditions took its toll, the less testing conditions should see him to better effect and he has every chance if showing the expected progression.

6.    Pena Dorada – Class Average 4.14 – Looks up against it in this sphere of opponents and looks handicapped up to his best on the form in the book and needs improvement which he is entitled to being just a 5yo chaser, but he has had 10 runs as a chaser now and hasn’t really progressed so far over fences. The Trip looks to be the furthest he will want and I see others more classy able to see out the trip better.

7.    Rackham Lerouge – Class Average 4.30 – Didn’t show his best when last seen in June at Market Rasen when finishing down the field but prior to that he looked quite useful when hacking up at Fontwell on ground with some ease in it and a return to that form would have him involved in the finish in this handicap. The mark of 124 looks attainable based on that Fontwell effort and the 20F around Sedgefield should be a stern enough test of stamina for him as in his novice days he showed to have some speed when running a fair effort against the likes of Medermit when with Nicky Henderson.  Now with Charlie Longsdon he has the ability but once again if he was as good as he looked at Fontwell then why has he been moved out of the yard, he is a hard puller.

8.    Rich Lord – Class Average 4.80 – All his best form has come at a lower level and even though he hails from a yard that does well at Sedgefield I feel he is there to be taken on today under these conditions. The win at Carlisle over 21F was under very testing conditions and he excelled over the stronger test of stamina and that was a personal best, his best hope lies with a lot of rain hitting the track and if it was to turn soft to heavy type of ground then his stamina may well come into play and he would be of interest in this handicap.

9.    Tyrone House – Class Average 3.45 – Another that is best when getting his toe in his best efforts to date has come at Perth and Wetherby under soft conditions and the effort 11 months ago at Wetherby over 2 and half miles was a very decent effort which would have him as well handicapped off a mark of 127. A winner over course and distance under today’s pilot bodes well and even though he is vulnerable to an improver he should give his running and only rain can add to his chances as he enjoys a stiff test of stamina even though the drop back based on 4 subsequent runs since landing that Wetherby race looking a bonus.

Tissue – Carpincho 5/2, Buck Mulligan 10/3, Tyrone House, No Planning 5/1, Rackham Lerouge 7/1, Global Flyer 8/1 BAR 9/1

Verdict – Buck Mulligan should go close now the handicapper has given him a chance and I make him one of the more favoured runners for this race when pricing it up and he should go well and is worth considering at 4/1 for this event today. No Planning is the improver in the field and rates as a consideration, but 11/4 early best price isn’t worth considering in my opinion as a valid betting proposition. Tyrone House at a big price of 14/1 is of interest for this as he is a proven handicapper, more rain would have added to his chances. CARPINCHO at 5/1 is the selection  as I see him as a improver in this field for Sarah Humphrey and even though not totally convinced by today’s pilot I am prepared to give him ago in this event.

Carpincho 1pt e/w @ 5-1 (Billys)

IDKW I got 11/2 with the purple site yesterday (6.8), however soon after posting I got a 3% reduction due to the NR and obviously with 3% commission I got about a 5/1 return.

You could be right but my view is that this a prep race for a long distance chase still to be revealed. Race is a big swerve for me.

2.00 Bangor 24.5F Handicap Chase GS Class 3


1.    Alvarado – Class Average 3.43 - proven in soft conditions but may want a sharper test of stamina then 24.5F around Bangor as his best form comes under sharper trips around Wetherby. The effort he put up at Carlisle over 3M was below his current mark and he is likely to be more effective when paired with a strenuous test of stamina. NR

2.    Buffalo Bob – Class average 3.02 - Got him wrong last time when he failed to last the trip out and may well be pass his best as a combination of his stamina and handicap mark seemed to take its toll on him. His older form in the book suggest he is more than capable off this mark in staying races but he has regressed it seems and even though his form 12 months ago at Newbury suggest he has a chance over today’s test others look better handicapped.

3.    Cadoudalas – Class Average 3.60 - Taking a step into the unknown in terms of stamina his best form has come under testing conditions over shorter trips at Carlisle, Hereford and more recently Ludlow over 20F. The Ludlow track wouldn’t have put the emphasis on stamina as much as the further trip today so while he proved effective over the longer trip, he has got another task on his plate over this further trip today and a cautious approach should be taken as the Carlisle performance suggested 20F at Ludlow was within his grasp, the Ludlow run doesn’t quite suggest 24.5F at Bangor will see him as effective.

4.    Cotswold Charmer – Class Average 3.67 - Fairly lightly raced as a chaser and has course and distance form when putting up his personal best last December, has had a run over a similar test of stamina since and didn’t quite reach the same heights which would be a concern, but as he is lightly raced you could well forgive him that effort and judge him better on the course and distance run which would see him in with a chance in this better quality of race but likely to be effective off a mark of 116 today. 

5.    Fine Parchment – Class Average 2.10 – Stamina isn’t assured for this exposed handicapper with his best form coming over 2 and ½ Miles so far and even though a good level of class form in the book he could struggle with stronger stayers off a mark of 130 today. His target is often Newbury in March and that could well be on the agenda again as it was his last decent effort to note and a return to that venue in a couple of weeks could be ideal for him at the Hennessy meeting if he was to go there.

6.    Kauto Relko – Class Average 2.94 – Has been on the go this summer so has no issue with fitness for this event today. Two of his better efforts have come over trips at tracks that suggest that he should be well suited to this test of stamina today and that would be his last effort which was a personal best when running 5th at Cheltenham at this seasons October meeting in which a reproduction of that effort over 20F under good to soft ground suggest that he is well handicapped for this event with the longer trip based on Market Rasen form from the summer could bring about improvement under these conditions today.

7.    Lively Baron – Class Average 4.04 – Should be well suited to these conditions and one that looks guaranteed to see out the trip based on the best ratings he has achieved so far. Quite highly tested in amount of races for a 2nd season chaser, he holds his own around this level of racing and whilst not the classiest of chasers he should once again give his running and looks handicapped to be thereabouts.

8.    Monkerty Tunkerty – Class Average 6.5 – Stepping out of hunter chasers which will be his bread and butter after the festive periods but more than capable of running a big race in a handicap of this level based on his effort back in January under rules at Warwick. Based on that effort his handicap mark of 127 looks a viable winning mark for him and without knowing too much about his points form he should give a good account under that effort at Warwick today.

9.    Quartz De Thaix – Class Average 2.26 – Not run with much conviction last season and has found himself back and well handicapped and the run at this year’s festival suggested that the longer trips this season could well see him bounce back to form as he stayed on that day. This looks a ideal starting point for him to go from this season as the 24.5 Furlong track shouldn’t be too testing in terms of getting the track and unlike others who are unproven over the trip he has at least drawn encouragement that it will suit.

10.    Sir Du Bearn – Class Average 3.26 – Another that’s best form has come in between 2 & 3 miles and needs to prove that he has the ability to stay this far. This looks a decent handicap for him to be tried over 3 Miles in and he comes here in good form having ran a sound race over 21 furlongs at Stratford at the back end of October. In terms of ability he is capable at this level but needs to prove he stays the trip, but could improve for the longer trip so hard to totally discount

11.    That’s The deal – Class Average 3.94 - Looks up against it in this sphere of company and needs a personal best to trouble the judge it would seem. Has clocked up a fair few miles this year and hasn’t really progressed, he is a class 4/5 chaser at best and is likely to struggle off 109 today despite receiving weight all-round as his best form is over the shorter trip.

Tissue – Kauto Relko, Monkerty Tunkerty 4/1, Quartz De Thaix 9/2, Cotswold Charmer 7/1,Sir Du Bearn, Lively Baron 8/1 10/1BAR.
Verdict – not a bad looking handicap chase for Bangor and Monkery Tunkerty looks to hold a live chance out of hunter chases based on the demolition of the useful Bradley back in January and no surprise to see him at the head of the market. KAUTO RELKO has been running well without winning of late and looks handicapped to go well at this level I feel, I made him joint favorite for this event so the 7-1 on offer looks to hold value for a inform yard. Quartz De Thaix could well bounce back to form at 9/1 and was very much on my radar as a viable betting proposition and whilst there is maybe more value in him then Kauto Relko, the Charlie Longsdon horse at least has the more recent form to draw hope from and just shades my vote.

Selection – Kauto Relko 1pt e/w @ 7-1 (365)

2.25 Clonmel Oil Chase Grade 2 20F Soft

Let yourself Go - Class Average 1.66 - Once a half decent chaser when with Adrian Maguire and can boast a decent 2nd at the Punchestown Festival in the Ryanair Grade 1 novices chase in 2010. Not quite reached the dizzy heights of old that saw him finish 2nd in the 2010 renwal of this event when he finished 2nd to Tranquil Sea and a return to those sorts of performances would have him running to somewhere close of being competitive at this level, but his form has been of a lower class for sometime now and further easing by the handicapper will see him potentially off a handy mark in a handicap.

Magnanimity - Class average 1.06 - Effective at this level if not top quaility and looks the first string on jockey bookings for the Gigginstown stud. Ran a solid race at the cheltenham festival this year but is a little one paced needing the ground on the real testing side to be at his best and comes into this grade 2 event in good form having ran 2nd to Roi De mee Latest, but needs this to turn into a real stamina test underfoot to worry the principals and despite the 2lbs he recieves he needs to improve on the best of his form to worry the main players in this.

Rathlin - Class Average 1.55 - brings the improver factor to the race but whilst he isnt as exposed as the others in the race he has got to refind the form that saw him run 2nd to Flemenstar in the Power Gold Cup over 20F in the mud at Fairyhouse last season and that form does look half decent given the winner that day being so impressive so far this season. On jockey Bookings he is the 2nd string given that Davy Russell has sided with the inform Magnanimity so there is question marks on whether he is of genuine Grade 2 class.

Sizing Europe - Class Average 1.02 - One of the best chasers around and on ratings should have this in the bag if staying the trip in the mud, on the side of stamina this 10yo has got form in the book over further but each one of those efforts was short of his best on RPR by around 10lbs on average which opens the doors to others in the race. This should really be his last top season in my view to land the main races as more speedier youngsters are coming through.

Tranquill Sea - Class Average 1.32 - Regular in this race and knows what it takes to win this chase as he has won it the last two years and the year prior to that he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham so is one to catch this time of the year. On Ratings he has a bit to find with Sizing Europe on the best of both their pieces of form, but over this trip and stamina test it is more of a level playing field as this is his own back yard and he is sure to go well for Barry Gerghaty who is his regular pilot these days. Finished the season in good form and has good record fresh.

Tissue - Sizing Europe 10/11, Tranquil Sea 11/4, Maganimity 10/1, 12/1BAR

Verdict - Sizing Europe is sure to be the one to take out of the race for future grade 1 chases as he has the ability at the top level to be a force and even though there is a new kid on the block he is sure to win a top 2M chase at some point in the season but for todays race Tranquil Sea is a viable betting option in a race that brings out his best and at 11-2 it looks to me that he is overpriced for this.

Selection - Tranquil Sea 2pt win @ 11/2

1.50    Cheltenham Paddypower.com Handicap Chase Class 2 16F GS 14 runners
Race conditions – Class 2 Stamina Key score 18.08

Astracad – Class Average 1.60 RPR average 147 Stamina Key Average 17.90.

Gelding who is 6yo who has had 7 chases races now and could still progress for the Twiston-Davies yard and should be ready to do himself justice on first start of the season as this looks an ideal early target for the horse. Running off a mark of 145 he should be capable of holding his own at this level with the stamina test being very much ideal for him as he has a mixture of speed and stamina.

Oh Crick – Class Average 1.80 RPR Average 153 Stamina Key Average 17.71.

Was well below par when trailing home Astracad over course and distance back in December but did return to form afterwards in the spring when winning at Chepstow and that was his best piece of form since 2010. Potentially more proven on Racingpost best rating then the majority of these in the handicap but is far more exposed having run 24 times over fences so far. Well handicapped off 144 if he was still to retain his ability of old but the employment of a 7lb claimer suggest that he may need some help at the weights.

Kid Cassidy – Class Average 2.47 RPR Average 148 Stamina Key Average 16.81

Has had only six runs over fences so far and can progress further this season and should be race fit for this having been given a tender time last time out in soft conditions at Aintree and while he is still open to improvement which given the average of his class of races he needs to improve on he is only 6yo with strong connections and sure to be able to produce more this season. Looks kindly handicapped on his RPR average of this mark of 144, the concern I have for him today is his ability to see out 16 furlongs on a stiff track such as this as his average stamina key is quite sharp in terms of his performances so far and he was below par at the festival in March so there are concerns to take into consideration.

Consigliere – Class Average 1.76 RPR Average 151 Stamina Key Average 21.21

Has plenty of class performances in the book and at 9yo should be in his pomp over fences but has had plenty of runs over fences and fits a similar profile to that of Oh Crick and that is represented in his RPR average that would have him as well handicapped. The Stamina Average suggest that a further trip would be ideal for him as he was so impressive over 21F at Wincanton last season and stayed on at Haydock under tough going over 3M last season but may have been flattered by that effort as many didn’t stay the trip. This trip was ideal for him a couple years back but he has question marks if he still retains the speed of old but if he does then he has to be considered of 142 and the claimer is one that demands respect taking 7lbs of his back.

Takeroc – Class Average 1.96 RPR Average 150 Stamina Key Average 17.97

Formerly with Paul Nichols and didn’t show much on first start for the new yard but the ground will have been far too soft for him that day with his best form all coming on good racing ground, the quicker conditions underfoot from that day should see him too better effect but while 139 is a mark he is capable of running a big race off on Racingpost rating he has to show that he is still capable of the marks he got with the ex-champion trainer. The flatter tracks have seen him to better effect, but he does look now to need a slightly tougher test of stamina over 16 furlongs these days which he will get today and he should give his running, but he needs to show he is still in good heart.

Free World – Class Average 2.70 RPR Average 150 Stamina Key Average 18.40

Another formally with Paul Nichols but while he has changed trainers he is still with the same owners suggesting that maybe the Irish races appealed more to his chances but he hasn’t proven that really since leaving the champion trainer. Fell in the grand annual here and would have been amongst the first 6 or 7 home that day as he was travelling well and the stamina test on offer today should be perfect for him and he is sure to be fit after failing to get home in the mud on first start this season. The 134 mark is a mark he should be more than capable of winning off. The only problem is that you have to have a leap of faith with him as it’s been a while since he has put up a performance but on his day he is very capable in this sphere.

Rio Gael – Class Average 2.70 RPR Average 130 Stamina Key Average 16.73

Only 6yo and he is entitled to improvement but he does need to find against the best of these and maybe is best saved for another day as a betting proposition with some doubts over his stamina as well on stiff tracks as his best has all come on sharper speedy tracks, he looks up against it handicap wise as he has had more than enough chase races in his career to produce a decent enough average and he does look up against it.

Silver Roque – Class Average 3.25 RPR Average 132 Stamina Key average 17.13

Formally with Henerita Knight but has improved further for the change to Fergal O’Brien this season and is one that is coming into this on top of his form and should give his running if seeing the trip out as he could improve further despite the further 2lb increase at the weights but this is a tougher ask then previous class wise. Never really stayed over further with Henerita Knight, he could see out this stiff 16 furlongs well with some cut in the ground but it’s no surprise to see his improvement has come under sharper tests.

Wetak – Class Average n/a

Not much UK form to go on and didn’t shape with too much promise over hurdles at Ascot when finishing 5th of 6.  The market will be the best guide going into this handicap chase as to his chances.

Arctic Ben – Class Average 3.5 RPR Average 127 Stamina Key Average 19.78

One that will see this trip out well having failed to last home the 21 furlongs back in May behind Mad Moose here, but this trip should very much be more to his liking around here and at 8yo he looks to still have some improvement in him and the booking of Richard Johnson for Henry Daly often means that they feel he is capable at this level of handicap.  The current mark of 125 should still see him capable of running a big race but he does have to improve again which is possible with much in his favour.

Shooters Wood – Class Average 3.33 RPR average 123 Stamina Average 16.49

Paul Nichols and Ruby Walsh team up near the foot of the handicap with this unexposed hunter chaser who has course form in the book already when winning at the hunters chase meeting here back in May 2010. That was a much easier task the he faces today but he did it nicely and as only 8yo has progressed since running well twice already this autumn and the stiffer finishing track may well bring out further improvement as he has been a little one paced in his finishes so far this season.

Salute Him – Class Average 3.70 RPR Average 136 Stamina Average 17.20

Tony Martin has employed the services of Maurice Linehan to give his runner the lowest possible weight in this handicap as he just creeps into the handicap, but on Racingpost ratings he actually looks to be well handicapped based on his runs over Hurdles and even though he has yet to show the same form over fences in his six starts you can’t help but see him as a potential shock in this.

Fiftyonefiftyone – Class Average 3.62 RPR average 126 Stamina Average 17.74

Not seen since labouring home at Ascot 12 months ago and has that to overcome. Well handicapped on the best of his form and has a feather weight to run off being out of the handicap here today. Looking at the make-up of his form he may find this competitive enough on return to the race course and is likely to come on for the run.

Lucy’s Legend – Class Average 4.30 RPR Average 115 Stamina Average 16.65

Has several things to prove despite the fact that she comes into this race inform and is worse at the weights with shooters wood on Kempton running due to being out of the handicap and James best is brought in to offset the weight. Not proven over a stiffer test of stamina and has that to prove as her best form has been on sharper speedier tracks and when up against it at the weights she should be fighting a thankless task here today.
Tissue – Astracad 9/2, Arctic Ben 5/1, Oh Crick 15/2, Free World, Kid Cassidy 8/1, Silver Roque 10/1, Shooters Wood 12/1 Salute Him 14/1 16/1 BAR

Verdict – tricky Handicap with question marks over a fair few of these runners with Takeroc & free World needing to prove they obtain the ability shown with Paul Nichols. Salute Him for Tony martin is well handicapped based on hurdles form but needs to prove he can jump well enough; the claimer booking is interesting here. Oh Crick, Astracad and Arctic ben all look too hold decent chances and the Twiston-Davies runner could well contest some weak graded chases this season over 2M and run well and has to have a chance off top weight in this with course form in the book and at 9/2 he looks priced about right. Oh Crick a grand annual winner at this track has held his form well over the years but often comes on for the run but this doesn’t look the toughest of tasks first time out. ARCTIC BEN looks the pick at the weights in this at best priced 9/1 as it looks a race tailored for him to improve on over a stiff minimum distance race.

Selection – Arctic ben 2pt e/w @ 9/1 (Billys)

A truly exceptional write up Well Chief but do feel your wasted on here, i'm on classic so don't know how many views you get, how do you arrive at your class figure?

GL Chief, quite fancy Poquelin for a place myself, not sure I had him at 6-1 on my tissue but 28-1, and even 33-1 in a place now bigger than I'd assumed considering his love for the C/D.

Superb as ever Chief.

Best of luck Glossy, I cant have Get me out of Here. If I was a layer I would be taking GMOOH, he will travel into the race but unless Oscar Whisky falls, then that rival will have him covered for tactical speed. get me out of here is best with cover and being produced in the class 1 Sphere. It be wrong to say he wont settle as he is experienced but he is like a sling shot in daytona racing terms, needs to be produced of a gallop over the last. See him sticking on. There is no Overturn in the race and it should be a case of similiar tactics to the race he won at Cheltenham where GMOOH ranged up then got beaten for turn of foot (well I hope), but I wish you luck