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is this financially viable?
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Think slaphead fred still offers this but might be wrong
Don't do it, a pure mugs bet, unless it's just for a bit of fun, for a nicker
and your in the boozer for a few hours. Think about it for a minute, the stinking
sewer rat bookies, are trying to encourage you to bet, they way they want you to bet.
and your in the boozer for a few hours. Think about it for a minute, the stinking
sewer rat bookies, are trying to encourage you to bet, they way they want you to bet.
My mug bet for the day Motley
Ajmany 2-10 Yarm
Irish Girls Spirit 3-40 Yarm
Best Trip 3-50 Haydock
Strada Facenda 4-10 Yarm
x4 singles and a daft 4 quid L15 gl all
Ajmany 2-10 Yarm
Irish Girls Spirit 3-40 Yarm
Best Trip 3-50 Haydock
Strada Facenda 4-10 Yarm
x4 singles and a daft 4 quid L15 gl all
I've got number crunching p/loss stats across the estate for a major company for a 4 year period containing literally millions of bets & for the following multi's.........
-basic Yankee
-Yap
-L15 double odds
-L15 treble odds
-L15 quadruple odds
Won't post the exact figures but it obviously varies from profitable to a loss leader , it's not so much the margin on these individual bets but the accompanying business they attract , bit like the placepot before it all went into the pool & why some companies didn't really want them but their hand was forced.
From the research conclusions i've seen and the effect the more exaggerated concession has on the head count i'd say the L15 concession will continue to be a useful/necessary tool for competitive bookmaker scenarios.
Once again assessing the offer on margin alone is a bit more complex as all retailers seem to use a loss leader these days to " get you in " and the L15 concession appears to be as good as any in the bookmaking industry for the average punter , my well known local bookmakers recently entered into a L15 war and they eventually went 4 x L15 & 6 x L31 for one winner with a 25% all correct bonus for the lot , sanity was eventually restored but they're still both treble and quadruple for a L31.
It reminded me of that Two Ronnies sketch when they had a shop next door to each other and entered into an apple war , eventually the price tumbled so much that Corbett was offering them for 1p so Barker ended up buying all the apples from Corbett for 1p then the signs read......Barker apples 12p each..............Corbett sold out , and believe it or not they both thought they'd won
Good luck today all
-basic Yankee
-Yap
-L15 double odds
-L15 treble odds
-L15 quadruple odds
Won't post the exact figures but it obviously varies from profitable to a loss leader , it's not so much the margin on these individual bets but the accompanying business they attract , bit like the placepot before it all went into the pool & why some companies didn't really want them but their hand was forced.
From the research conclusions i've seen and the effect the more exaggerated concession has on the head count i'd say the L15 concession will continue to be a useful/necessary tool for competitive bookmaker scenarios.
Once again assessing the offer on margin alone is a bit more complex as all retailers seem to use a loss leader these days to " get you in " and the L15 concession appears to be as good as any in the bookmaking industry for the average punter , my well known local bookmakers recently entered into a L15 war and they eventually went 4 x L15 & 6 x L31 for one winner with a 25% all correct bonus for the lot , sanity was eventually restored but they're still both treble and quadruple for a L31.
It reminded me of that Two Ronnies sketch when they had a shop next door to each other and entered into an apple war , eventually the price tumbled so much that Corbett was offering them for 1p so Barker ended up buying all the apples from Corbett for 1p then the signs read......Barker apples 12p each..............Corbett sold out , and believe it or not they both thought they'd won
Good luck today all
back four selections, each at around 5/1, I have had some nice pick ups from baldy on these
Unlucky bumper looks like you had one winner , hope you got treble odds to reduce the loss a bit.
Good luck tomorrow
Good luck tomorrow
Yes baldy is the only bookie online to offer 3x odds , koral are the only who offer this on my high street
I know of a Dave Plucks that does x4 for 1 winner. Got to be the most unprofitable bet ever for that shop.
You can do the maths yourself. It's hardly particle physics.
3X the odds is hugely profitable for the bookie.
On realistic assumptions, 4X the odds is still slightly in the bookie's favour.
Keep in mind that 14 of the 'lucky' 15 bets have to lose before the bonus kicks in.
Like Motley says, it's essentially a mug bet. Though, to be fair, there are worse examples.
Incidentally, the conventional wisdom that you should look for 5/1 shots in order to break even with a single winner is bad advice. Shorter prices give better returns in the long run because 3x 2/1 is worth more in percentage terms than 3x 5/1. Shorter prices also increase the chances of a four-timer which normally attracts a further bonus.
3X the odds is hugely profitable for the bookie.
On realistic assumptions, 4X the odds is still slightly in the bookie's favour.
Keep in mind that 14 of the 'lucky' 15 bets have to lose before the bonus kicks in.
Like Motley says, it's essentially a mug bet. Though, to be fair, there are worse examples.
Incidentally, the conventional wisdom that you should look for 5/1 shots in order to break even with a single winner is bad advice. Shorter prices give better returns in the long run because 3x 2/1 is worth more in percentage terms than 3x 5/1. Shorter prices also increase the chances of a four-timer which normally attracts a further bonus.
lucky 15 @ 3 x odds is only a 10% margin bet for bookmakers
I know it's a common perception about L15's being a 'mug bet' but I don't mind people calling me names when year after year I'm well UP on such multiple bets 
It's four years since I did a bet with a bookie as I'm constantly betting on here, looking for different angles.
For the decade prior to that, I kept records and I was well up every year!
Multiple bets go hand in hand with the perception of mug-punting, because typically, the losers would spend their day in the bookies betting race to race, or perish the thought...drinking in the pub next door!
I could never return to that way of betting nowadays, because I resent backing a 20/1 shot that'd be 36 on here!
Only at the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot (as the value is 'vampired' out of this place) as prices with the bookies are strikingly similar, would I consider doing £1 E/W Lucky 15's again.
For my money...I figure mathematically, there is NO better multiple bet than an E/W L15.
It's four years since I did a bet with a bookie as I'm constantly betting on here, looking for different angles.
For the decade prior to that, I kept records and I was well up every year!
Multiple bets go hand in hand with the perception of mug-punting, because typically, the losers would spend their day in the bookies betting race to race, or perish the thought...drinking in the pub next door!
I could never return to that way of betting nowadays, because I resent backing a 20/1 shot that'd be 36 on here!
Only at the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot (as the value is 'vampired' out of this place) as prices with the bookies are strikingly similar, would I consider doing £1 E/W Lucky 15's again.
For my money...I figure mathematically, there is NO better multiple bet than an E/W L15.
Couldn't argue with that Foetus , as I posted earlier bookmakers don't mind this bet type & giving the concessions that go with it from the vast majority of punters , what they don't like is the L15 from the maths players who sensibly select the correct opportunity to play such a bet type , the average punter will take the L15 slip , fill in the staking then go & look for 4 horses , the maths players will identify the day to play the L15 by the fields available & not be afraid to go days or sometimes weeks by ignoring the bet because mathematically the opportunities don't exist.
On average i've played about 5 L15's a month over the last 5 years so consequently it's very easy to spread business about and remain under the radar.
A multi isn't for everyone & certainly not for me on the vast majority of betting days but sometimes the opportunity is far too good to miss with the shape/fields ripe for picking , as I posted earlier though it's as much the accompanying business from the average punter that allows bookmakers to go overboard with concessions on certain bets in extremely competitive situations , the net result though is either a margin below expectations or even a loss leader when the place over broke goes the way of the shrewder band of punters.
Have to admit practically every L15/L31 i've placed is e/way as there is no real angle from the win only , especially when the place book is over broke so as to make the win side of the bet a massive over round in bookmakers favour , as Foetus stated.
One crucial factor if placing a multi for me....
-If you compound an over round in the long term you're absolute toast
-If you compound an over broke then with patience you'll be a certain long term winner , providing you can leave the other recreational bets alone.
Good luck all
On average i've played about 5 L15's a month over the last 5 years so consequently it's very easy to spread business about and remain under the radar.
A multi isn't for everyone & certainly not for me on the vast majority of betting days but sometimes the opportunity is far too good to miss with the shape/fields ripe for picking , as I posted earlier though it's as much the accompanying business from the average punter that allows bookmakers to go overboard with concessions on certain bets in extremely competitive situations , the net result though is either a margin below expectations or even a loss leader when the place over broke goes the way of the shrewder band of punters.
Have to admit practically every L15/L31 i've placed is e/way as there is no real angle from the win only , especially when the place book is over broke so as to make the win side of the bet a massive over round in bookmakers favour , as Foetus stated.
One crucial factor if placing a multi for me....
-If you compound an over round in the long term you're absolute toast
-If you compound an over broke then with patience you'll be a certain long term winner , providing you can leave the other recreational bets alone.
Good luck all
Hayden - I had a strategy as I understood the mathematics.
For example...I would ALWAYS put the bets on in a 1/4 odds shop, and I had guaranteed prices too, which is a great start, as well as the x3 odds for one winner.
I did bet every day, and sometimes (depending on the amount of racing) I did three £1 E/W bets in one go, and then fcuked off home to watch it all on TV!
Not many people realise that four 4/1 shots that scramble the frame (at 1/4 odds) returns £80 for a 1 E/W stake (£30) even without a winner, and even one of those out of the places, loses just £4 of the original £30 stake!
Four 6/1 shots pays just under £150, and at 8/1, the returns are £255.
That's not some sort of pipedream as choosing the best races to get a horse in the frame is the key to it all, as well finding the obvious concessions.
As a final nice little bonus, a shop I used to use, returned the place part of your stake if all four selections were out of the frame, which encouraged me to have a speculative bet on four rank outsiders in wide-open handicaps.
After a few years, they changed those terms to multiples with 5 selections instead
For example...I would ALWAYS put the bets on in a 1/4 odds shop, and I had guaranteed prices too, which is a great start, as well as the x3 odds for one winner.
I did bet every day, and sometimes (depending on the amount of racing) I did three £1 E/W bets in one go, and then fcuked off home to watch it all on TV!
Not many people realise that four 4/1 shots that scramble the frame (at 1/4 odds) returns £80 for a 1 E/W stake (£30) even without a winner, and even one of those out of the places, loses just £4 of the original £30 stake!
Four 6/1 shots pays just under £150, and at 8/1, the returns are £255.
That's not some sort of pipedream as choosing the best races to get a horse in the frame is the key to it all, as well finding the obvious concessions.
As a final nice little bonus, a shop I used to use, returned the place part of your stake if all four selections were out of the frame, which encouraged me to have a speculative bet on four rank outsiders in wide-open handicaps.
After a few years, they changed those terms to multiples with 5 selections instead
PS - I also used to scratch the four place singles, making the bet £26 instead of £30, but the miserable-arsed settler didn't like me winning and put a stop to that
It's all about putting the odds in your favour
It's all about putting the odds in your favour
I think there are two other factors here that stack it in the bookies favour and yes i do do baldy lucky 15's on a saturday just for the chance of a big win.
The first is that you have to choose your horses in advance so don't get any visibility on the "market" just before the off so betting blind i.e without any stable information it's hard to know which horses are not going to try - best odds do mitigate this as you get a better price on a gambled horse but still bettting in the morning on afternoon races has a lotteery elenment to it.
Secondly if the first three come in at decent odds unless you have taken prices the bookie can lower the price on course for the fourth horse thus reducing the "jackpot" amount.
Famously that dustman who won £500,000k on a cheltenham yankee in the 1990's had his last horse - over the deel - reduced from 33-s into 12-1
The first is that you have to choose your horses in advance so don't get any visibility on the "market" just before the off so betting blind i.e without any stable information it's hard to know which horses are not going to try - best odds do mitigate this as you get a better price on a gambled horse but still bettting in the morning on afternoon races has a lotteery elenment to it.
Secondly if the first three come in at decent odds unless you have taken prices the bookie can lower the price on course for the fourth horse thus reducing the "jackpot" amount.
Famously that dustman who won £500,000k on a cheltenham yankee in the 1990's had his last horse - over the deel - reduced from 33-s into 12-1
as bookmakers famously did on dettori's famous 7
Fujiyama Crest was readily available at 12/1 in the morning, but punters who went SP only were shafted with 2/1
Fujiyama Crest was readily available at 12/1 in the morning, but punters who went SP only were shafted with 2/1
yes i am Fenman - the point was does the triple the odds make it a worthwhile bet - yes when you only get one winner ... but they are able to kill of the true price of the accumulator as they have advance notice of the bet and can manipulate the market on the fourth horse if needed.
Fenman i noticed you joined 2 weeks ago - you may look to check how long i have been here
Fenman i noticed you joined 2 weeks ago - you may look to check how long i have been here
Anyone serious about checking out the viability of this bet will find this very useful
http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/
http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/
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